(12-24-2017 02:05 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 11:14 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  By the way, African American voters will probably vote for a bland white Democrat in same numbers as they would for Cory Booker. They see the existential threat that Trumpism represents. Doug Jones is as white as a Mayonnaise festival in Maine, but he still got higher turnout and vote totals in Alabama than Obama did.

If that was true then Hillary would've won last year. Democrats have basically been a loose consortium of opposing interests since the thirties, they need a charismatic candidate to unite them or else they'll eat each other alive.

(12-24-2017 03:18 PM)450bench Wrote:  The complete and utter delusion of the left has become commonplace. Then you see some of the comments here from resident libs and it is truly unreal.

(12-24-2017 11:14 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 01:37 AM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(12-23-2017 10:35 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  A good speech delivery is all he has. Nothing of substance unless You are a far left geek.

Obama won two elections. Zero qualifications for the job. Zero attempts to be a centrist.

Don't under estimate Booker. He has the one thing that will bring dormant voters to the booths if need be. Melatonin. He doesn't need experience. He doesn't need qualifications. He simply needs to read from a teleprompter and call the other guy/gal racist. The media will do the rest.

Uh, Donald Trump IS a racist. Not a complex racist, but a rather simple and obvious one. Lets review. Mexicans are rapists and can't be judges. Support for white supremacists. Haitians all have AIDS. The Central Park 5. His housing policies. Literally pardoning racism when he pardoned Arpaio. Birtherism...and on and on and on.

What happened in Alabama with African American turnout is pretty much guaranteed in 2020. That level of turnout by itself would have flipped the election in 2016 in Michigan and Wisconsin and would have made Pennsylvania too close to call. But that's not your only problem. The big scare is that Trump's racism is going to wake up Latino voters, causing flips in Texas, Arizona, and Florida. And making states like Georgia and North Carolina much more difficult. What I'm looking for in 2018 is Latino turnout. And then you have Trump's problems with educated white voters too.

BTW, Trump's disasterously bad handling of Puerto Rico is a huge, and unreported issue. 400,000 more Puerto Ricans will be voting in Florida in 2020.

And opposition to Trump is hardening. At some point, it won't matter if you can either find (or more likely make up) some scandal about the Democratic nominee....people are simply going to vote Dem to kick Trump out.

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By the way, African American voters will probably vote for a bland white Democrat in same numbers as they would for Cory Booker. They see the existential threat that Trumpism represents. Doug Jones is as white as a Mayonnaise festival in Maine, but he still got higher turnout and vote totals in Alabama than Obama did.

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Trumps tax plan isn't going to grow the economy in any way that really helps the working class. Its not how Wall Street operates. The tax cut to the middle class will be eaten up by health care increases and then some.

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So there's a lot of people, who didn't vote for Hillary that will vote for the Dem in 2020, period. Now where are your new voters. I suppose, there might be a few Johnson voters who might vote for you, or some Mormon voters in Utah, but that's about it. And that assumes, incorrectly, that Trump hasn't lost some of the people that voted for him. He has.

(12-23-2017 10:35 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  A good speech delivery is all he has. Nothing of substance unless You are a far left geek.

(12-24-2017 03:12 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  and electoral college gerrymandering

(12-24-2017 03:12 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 02:05 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 11:14 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  By the way, African American voters will probably vote for a bland white Democrat in same numbers as they would for Cory Booker. They see the existential threat that Trumpism represents. Doug Jones is as white as a Mayonnaise festival in Maine, but he still got higher turnout and vote totals in Alabama than Obama did.

If that was true then Hillary would've won last year. Democrats have basically been a loose consortium of opposing interests since the thirties, they need a charismatic candidate to unite them or else they'll eat each other alive.

LOL. You guys "Beat" Hillary because our turnout was depressed (and electoral college gerrymandering). Turnout isn't depressed, and no amount of Russian news, facebook games, or Jim Hoft lies are going to change that.

Here's the four most likelys at this point. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirstin Gillibrand, and Cory Booker. Beyond that you could see a Joachim Castro, Ted Steyer, etc. to run as well. Bernie might run, but will probably get nowhere. Warren would take many of his voters, and that would probably make the next President Kamala Harris, Kirstin Gillibrand or Cory Booker. If the independent vote is largely white, and less than 10 percent of the vote total, Trump is gone in 2020, and it won't matter who the Dems put up.

The Trump plan is pretty straightforward at this point. Try to figure out how to get 40 percent to vote for you, then hope that an independent candidate like Mark Cuban or Jeff Flake can pull 7 to 8 percent more from the Dem than from Trump.

Its going to be exponentially harder than Trump's upset. The first problem is that everyone will see it coming. The next problem for someone like Flake or Corker is that they've voted with Trump north of 95% of the time. And they don't really have support from the independents and wont get any from Dems. Most likely result is that the impact of a candidate like Flake or Corker is to turn a Democrat win into a complete rout. What Trump really needs is an African American independent candidate that can siphon off votes in significant numbers while running against a Dem. I don't see one out there.

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For the Dems its pretty simple, keep the party unified, strongly oppose any nascent third party candidate, and viciously respond to Trump/Bannon's attacks.

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And there's a potential disaster for the GOP out there too....A primary challenge to Trump by Mitt Romney or Jeff Flake. They'd lose, but they'd beat the hell out of Trump in the process. I suspect Trump will not be unopposed.

(12-24-2017 06:47 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 03:12 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  and electoral college gerrymandering

Oh this ought to be good... How does one gerrymander the Electoral college?

(12-24-2017 03:12 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 02:05 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 11:14 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  By the way, African American voters will probably vote for a bland white Democrat in same numbers as they would for Cory Booker. They see the existential threat that Trumpism represents. Doug Jones is as white as a Mayonnaise festival in Maine, but he still got higher turnout and vote totals in Alabama than Obama did.

If that was true then Hillary would've won last year. Democrats have basically been a loose consortium of opposing interests since the thirties, they need a charismatic candidate to unite them or else they'll eat each other alive.

LOL. You guys "Beat" Hillary because our turnout was depressed (and electoral college gerrymandering). Turnout isn't depressed, and no amount of Russian news, facebook games, or Jim Hoft lies are going to change that.

Here's the four most likelys at this point. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirstin Gillibrand, and Cory Booker. Beyond that you could see a Joachim Castro, Ted Steyer, etc. to run as well. Bernie might run, but will probably get nowhere. Warren would take many of his voters, and that would probably make the next President Kamala Harris, Kirstin Gillibrand or Cory Booker. If the independent vote is largely white, and less than 10 percent of the vote total, Trump is gone in 2020, and it won't matter who the Dems put up.

The Trump plan is pretty straightforward at this point. Try to figure out how to get 40 percent to vote for you, then hope that an independent candidate like Mark Cuban or Jeff Flake can pull 7 to 8 percent more from the Dem than from Trump.

Its going to be exponentially harder than Trump's upset. The first problem is that everyone will see it coming. The next problem for someone like Flake or Corker is that they've voted with Trump north of 95% of the time. And they don't really have support from the independents and wont get any from Dems. Most likely result is that the impact of a candidate like Flake or Corker is to turn a Democrat win into a complete rout. What Trump really needs is an African American independent candidate that can siphon off votes in significant numbers while running against a Dem. I don't see one out there.

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For the Dems its pretty simple, keep the party unified, strongly oppose any nascent third party candidate, and viciously respond to Trump/Bannon's attacks.

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And there's a potential disaster for the GOP out there too....A primary challenge to Trump by Mitt Romney or Jeff Flake. They'd lose, but they'd beat the hell out of Trump in the process. I suspect Trump will not be unopposed.

(12-24-2017 11:19 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  For dems to win is very simple—Keep black and brown voters dumb, poor, and dependent on handouts. That’s been their formula for five decades.

What irritates me to no end is that republicans have not come up with a viable counter.

(12-25-2017 12:04 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 11:19 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  For dems to win is very simple—Keep black and brown voters dumb, poor, and dependent on handouts. That’s been their formula for five decades.

What irritates me to no end is that republicans have not come up with a viable counter.

As Hillary has been known to say: those effing n’s will do what the hell I tell them to do.


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(12-24-2017 11:19 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  For dems to win is very simple—Keep black and brown voters dumb, poor, and dependent on handouts. That’s been their formula for five decades.

What irritates me to no end is that republicans have not come up with a viable counter.

(12-24-2017 03:12 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 02:05 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(12-24-2017 11:14 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  By the way, African American voters will probably vote for a bland white Democrat in same numbers as they would for Cory Booker. They see the existential threat that Trumpism represents. Doug Jones is as white as a Mayonnaise festival in Maine, but he still got higher turnout and vote totals in Alabama than Obama did.

If that was true then Hillary would've won last year. Democrats have basically been a loose consortium of opposing interests since the thirties, they need a charismatic candidate to unite them or else they'll eat each other alive.

LOL. You guys "Beat" Hillary because our turnout was depressed (and electoral college gerrymandering). Turnout isn't depressed, and no amount of Russian news, facebook games, or Jim Hoft lies are going to change that.
One, I'm not part of 'you,' I didn't vote for Trump. Two, how is the EC gerrymandered as Owl points out? Three, why was turnout depressed last year? Hillary was banking on the fact that she was a woman but about six people were actually excited about her as a candidate.

Here's the four most likelys at this point. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirstin Gillibrand, and Cory Booker. Beyond that you could see a Joachim Castro, Ted Steyer, etc. to run as well. Bernie might run, but will probably get nowhere. Warren would take many of his voters, and that would probably make the next President Kamala Harris, Kirstin Gillibrand or Cory Booker. If the independent vote is largely white, and less than 10 percent of the vote total, Trump is gone in 2020, and it won't matter who the Dems put up.
Might see Biden throw his hat in the ring as well.

The Trump plan is pretty straightforward at this point. Try to figure out how to get 40 percent to vote for you, then hope that an independent candidate like Mark Cuban or Jeff Flake can pull 7 to 8 percent more from the Dem than from Trump.

Its going to be exponentially harder than Trump's upset. The first problem is that everyone will see it coming. The next problem for someone like Flake or Corker is that they've voted with Trump north of 95% of the time. And they don't really have support from the independents and wont get any from Dems. Most likely result is that the impact of a candidate like Flake or Corker is to turn a Democrat win into a complete rout. What Trump really needs is an African American independent candidate that can siphon off votes in significant numbers while running against a Dem. I don't see one out there.
Trump's problem is that he's an egotistical narcissist who can't get out of his own way with the rhetoric. If he just turned off his Twitter for a month you'd see his rating go up 10%, his policies in reality aren't the hell-raising evil schemes that the Democrats portray them as.

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For the Dems its pretty simple, keep the party unified, strongly oppose any nascent third party candidate, and viciously respond to Trump/Bannon's attacks.
That's the problem, it's very difficult to unify the Democrats under their traditional voting block. As Peter Zeihan points out, the Dems since the thirties have basically been a large group of opposing interests (e.g. greens and unions) who can't agree on much. When someone runs on policy like Dukakis they get creamed, so instead they need someone with charisma to rally around to oppose the stable but smaller group of traditional Republican voters.

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And there's a potential disaster for the GOP out there too....A primary challenge to Trump by Mitt Romney or Jeff Flake. They'd lose, but they'd beat the hell out of Trump in the process. I suspect Trump will not be unopposed.
I agree on the point that primary challengers are a bad sign for the incumbent (e.g. Carter and Ted Kennedy) but if unemployment is at a record low, the stock market is booming, and GDP is well over 3% growth per year, it'll be very difficult for anyone to gain traction against him in the primaries. If there's a recession (very possible, we haven't had one in close to a decade) then yeah he's vulnerable.

(12-24-2017 03:18 PM)450bench Wrote:  The complete and utter delusion of the left has become commonplace. Then you see some of the comments here from resident libs and it is truly unreal.