(01-31-2013 10:38 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote: (01-31-2013 10:22 AM)DrTorch Wrote: (01-30-2013 01:03 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote: (01-30-2013 12:59 PM)RobertN Wrote: (01-30-2013 12:34 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote: I like Cuba as well. The moment Fidel kicks the bucket I predict it will explode economically. Within a decade it will be a tourist and health care destination.
Interesting. You guys bash Cuban healthcare but somehow if Fidel leaves it will become a healthcare destination.
Who has bashed Cuban healthcare fool? Provide evidence please.
KitCat defended Cuban health care in discussions about 10 years ago.
He now posts under the name Louis Kitton.
He's like the Robert of the MAC board...fortunately Robert doesn't post much there.
To be clear I wasn't saying Cuban healthcare was great. Far from it. I'm just sick of Robert injecting crap into every discussion.
The reason why I believe it will be a healthcare destination about a decade or so after Fidel dies is, as TIL point out, their doctor's are excellent but their access to medicine and other medical necessities is limited. When the trade embargo is lifted you will see that change dramatically. The US will become probably the biggest trading partner with Cuba. You'll see a huge swath of outside investment, expecially from hotels down there. If gambling is legal there will be casinos everywhere. Havanna was the place to be before the revolution. It would get back to that very quickly given the weather and how cheap it will be to build there.
Cuba, after the regime falls, will not necessarily be a major healthcare destination. There will be a giant sucking sound as thousands of Cuban doctors try to emigrate to the USA en masse (which even as the US will get rid of the automatic asylum rights for Cubans, will not get rid of the ability of doctors, especially primary care physicians, to get a H1B). There may be some medical tourism, but it won't be as big of a deal as you might think. For the record, the US embargo against Cuba does not cover medicine or medical technology.
The US will become the largest trading partner with Cuba. Geography trumps in the long run. It will take a while for that change to take place, as European/Latin American/Asian firms have a 50 year head start on US firms though. Don't expect Wal-Marts to proliferate immediately.
There will be a lot of hotels built in Cuba. Cuba doesn't have enough hotels to meet demand now, much less without the US travel restrictions. However, I think there will be a pricing issue, much like with US travel to Mexico (but on hotels in Cuba versus airfare in the US). Its 200 bucks more for me to fly to South Africa from Houston than Puerto Vallarta. India? That'll be 250 bucks more please. I can fly to Europe cheaper than I can fly to Mexico. So, at least in the short run, Cuba will remain a high cost destination for Americans.
In the short run, it will probably be much more expensive to build in Cuba after the regime falls. Sure, labor will be cheap, but you still need a construction infrastructure. And while Cuba has one currently (those hotels in Veradero didn't build themselves) that infrastructure will be in chaos after the regime changes.
Gambling will probably never return to Cuba. There are real issues that Cubans have related to the Batista era that gambling has been wrapped up in.
One thing that wont happen is that Cuban exiles will not get their property back (which is going to cause some issues in Miami). And. the new Cuban leaders will come from Cuba, not from the Cuban American National Foundation.
Havana will become a major tourist destination after the regime falls. But there are serious infrastructure issues (such as transport,hotels, roads, etc.) that will cause that to be a bit of an issue. The city may have to prioritize housing for the population (which has been crumbling for 50 years) as more Cubans decided to move there as well.