(12-29-2012 02:17 AM)Steelbeard Wrote: C-USA fans were delusional (us ECU fans included) to think the Big East was going to collapse, and MWC fans are equally as delusional.
If Boise leaves (Which most of their fanbase says is a stupid decision) then the Big East will probably raid the MWC further and leave Boise with no quality in conference opponents and wreck the MWC's SOS forever, thus ensuring Big East dominance of the bowl spot. Boise gets isolated in a conference with a much smaller TV contract than the Big East, and gets NOTHING to show for it. SDSU would probably opt to stay in a Big East with Fresno and UNLV.
If Boise leaves, I don't think the Big East CAN raid the MWC. The Big East will be sitting at about $3-$4M per school. The MWC's renegotiation with CBS, plus adding Boise State either BYU or SDSU probably gets them up to $2M per school.
Let's say that the MWC makes a sweetheart deal with either Boise and BYU or Boise and SDSU that they can join/stay and keep their home football rights. The MWC adds 4 Boise STate road games, or 7-8 BSU/BYU road games plus a CCG to the TV package. Assume that CBS takes the CCG as one of their 5 Tier One games. Figure that CBS takes 3 more Boise State games and Air Force's home game with either NAvy or Army as their other picks.
So you're looking at AFA, Hawaii, Nevada, Fresno, UNLV, CSU, Wyoming, USU and SJSU. That's pretty similar to the C-USA lineup that Fox and CBS each paid $7M a year for a share of two years ago. So figure that the Tier 2 football package gets about $5M for 10 games, with CBS matching for their 10 games. (I can't imagine that the renegotiated contract is giving CBS their Tier 2 games for free--I suspect that CBS' unstated position right now is that those games are, ahem, worthless.) So the football money is up to $8M + $5M + $5M = $18M.
Then there's basketball. Much like the NBE and C-7 packages, the basketball is worth something. Basketball doesn't get ratings like football does, but the advantage of basketball to TV is there's a lot of it.
With SDSU, UNLV, UNM and Utah State in the fold, plus Boise State if they sustain their success, you should be able to squeeze $6M out of the basketball package.