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omniorange Offline
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Post: #1
What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
...to match the likely Pac-16 with Texas and Oklahoma?

To me this is the goal the ACC should strive for and it should stop trying to be something it is not - the SEC - in terms of football.

Assuming the Pac-16 comes about with the Texahoma schools, this means that the Pac-16 will have:

1) An 8-state region comprised of California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Texas, and Oklahoma.

A) current TV households in those 8 states:

California - 12,449,860
Texas - 8,582,540
Washington - 2,472,850
Arizona - 2,339,030
Colorado - 1,949,120
Oregon - 1,670,380
Oklahoma - 1,504,540
Utah - 944,060

Total - 31,912,380 which is 27.8% of US Total TVHHs.


B) projected population of the 8 states by 2030:

California - 46,444,861 #1
Texas - 33,317,744 #2
Arizona - 10,712,397 #10
Washington - 8,624,801 #14
Colorado - 5,792,357 #22
Oregon - 4,833,918 #25
Oklahoma - 3,913,251 #30
Utah - 3,485,367 #32

Total - 116,624,696 which is 32% of the US Projected Population by 2030

2) In college football:

A) Three Kings: Southern Cal, Texas, Oklahoma

B) Three Barons: Oregon, Washington, UCLA

C) Potential Knights to Barons: Oklahoma State, Utah(?)

3) In college basketball:

A) Elite Powers: UCLA, Arizona

B) Next Level Down: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Washington, Stanford


So besides the obvious and unrealistic additions of PSU (not leaving the Big Ten) and ND (not giving up independence, but if they did, could choose ACC over Big Ten) which would clearly trump the above, what additions would the ACC need if BOTH PSU and ND did not join together?

Cheers,
Neil

Edited to add Stanford as a Next Level Down basketball program.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2011 12:44 PM by omniorange.)
09-25-2011 12:36 PM
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ClairtonPanther Offline
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Post: #2
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
Any idea's on the projected households in the ACC vs B1G for 2030. I'd imagine the ACC would trump the B1G longterm in that category esp if the ACC was able to pull PSU from the B1G(not saying PSU is leaving).

Definitely on the right path here Neil.
09-25-2011 12:57 PM
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omniorange Offline
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 12:57 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote:  Any idea's on the projected households in the ACC vs B1G for 2030. I'd imagine the ACC would trump the B1G longterm in that category esp if the ACC was able to pull PSU from the B1G(not saying PSU is leaving).

Definitely on the right path here Neil.

As I see it, the issues with the ACC vs the projected Pac or even the current BiG is that except for Pennsylvania, the Big Ten institutions own the states that comprise their region for college football as does the Pac theirs and the exception for the Big Ten is really 85-90% theirs as it is.

The ACC on the other hand "shares" so many of its states with other conferences - Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina with the SEC, Pennsylvania with the BiG, and New York with the Big East that one would have to put an asterisk in terms of the geographical data.

But here is the data I have on it in terms of the states:

BiG projected population growth by 2030:

Illinois - 13,432,892 #5
Pennsylvania - 12,768,184 #6
Ohio - 11,550,528 #9
Michigan - 10,694,172 #11
Indiana - 6,810,108 #18
Minnesota - 6,306,130 #20
Wisconsin - 6,150,764 #21
Iowa - 2,955,172 #34
Nebraska - 1,820,247 #38

This totals 72,488,197 which is 19.9% of the projected US Population in 2030

For the ACC, with PA (since I am assuming you want to see how it would look to PSU in comparison):

Florida - 28,685,769 #3 *
New York - 19,477,429 #4 *
Pennsylvania - 12,768,184 #6
North Carolina - 12,227,739 #7
Georgia - 12,017,838 #8 *
Virginia - 9,825,019 #12
Maryland - 7,022,251 #16
Massachusetts - 7,012,009 #17
South Carolina - 5,148,469 #23 *

This totals 114,184,807 which is 31.4% of the projected US Population in 2030.

In terms of TVHHs:

Current BiG: 27,098,260

ACC with PSU: 37,494,310

However, as I indicated above, unlike with the Pac and BiG it would be difficult to give the ACC full credit for Florida, New York, Georgia, and South Carolina. If, however, ND and PSU both joined I think giving the ACC full credit for New York (with SU) and even Florida (with FSU and Miami) would be justified due to adding the large number of Irish and Nits fans in both states to what the league already has.

But that (adding both PSU and ND) is not happening in my book.

Cheers,
Neil
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2011 01:40 PM by omniorange.)
09-25-2011 01:33 PM
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ClairtonPanther Offline
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Post: #4
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
I think an ACC Network would go a long way in luring in both ND and PSU. I understand there are some issue's with ESPN here, but I think those could get sorted out by buying those games. Maybe each school loses around 1-2 M from ESPN but that could easily be made up w/ a 8-10M deal w/ an ACC Network. So 12-14 minus 1-2M and add 8-10 each school is looking around 18-23M a year, and that would be before PSU or ND could be added. I think those 2 additions could prop up the deals to around 25-30M a year easily.
09-25-2011 02:24 PM
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omniorange Offline
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 02:24 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote:  I think an ACC Network would go a long way in luring in both ND and PSU. I understand there are some issue's with ESPN here, but I think those could get sorted out by buying those games. Maybe each school loses around 1-2 M from ESPN but that could easily be made up w/ a 8-10M deal w/ an ACC Network. So 12-14 minus 1-2M and add 8-10 each school is looking around 18-23M a year, and that would be before PSU or ND could be added. I think those 2 additions could prop up the deals to around 25-30M a year easily.

Without a doubt, but...

Even assuming PSU would be interested, I have read accounts that say the BiG owns their TV rights for the next 20 years or so - sort of the same deal the Big 12 wants its institutions to make over the next 6 years to ensure its stability.

No one can point to the exact language (so there may be wiggle room there), but I would think even if there is such wiggle room, the Nits are staying in the BiG for the foreseeable future.

The ACC at the moment doesn't have the cache the BiG has in terms of football Kings like Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska. And no doubt, they hope ND and Texas join that conference at some point in the future.

Cheers,
Neil
09-25-2011 02:45 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #6
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
The #1 goal of the ACC (if the plan is to expand beyond 14) is to secure membership for Notre Dame.
Once that has been accomplished, other positive alternatives become possible. Is Penn State then on the table? If not, the next target should be South Carolina
09-25-2011 02:49 PM
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omniorange Offline
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 02:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  The #1 goal of the ACC (if the plan is to expand beyond 14) is to secure membership for Notre Dame.
Once that has been accomplished, other positive alternatives become possible. Is Penn State then on the table? If not, the next target should be South Carolina

While I would hope the league tries to get 2 football schools for #15 and #16 I am curious, why South Carolina? To own the state? Because they were an ACC school in the past? It's not as though they historically have been a football power.

Cheers,
Neil
09-25-2011 02:58 PM
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ClairtonPanther Offline
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Post: #8
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
I'm also curious about the pick of South Carolina. I'd think it would be harder to pull a team from the SEC than it would from the B1G.

I'd think the next step would be creating a Network. We'd have to ask a question on how valuable Towson @ Maryland and Bethune Cookman @ Miami matchups are to ESPN. And I do know that BC @ Miami is on ESPNU as well. There is a lot of historical games that could be used for Inventory during weekdays as well. After a Network is in place, heading to 16 would be the logical route IMO.

After a Network is in place, Notre Dame would be mandatory to get to 16, otherwise it wouldn't be worth it. I do think Pitt and Syracuse are the perfect pawns to make the ACC enticing for ND. But hopefully a future Network would be enticing enough to keep a school from leaving the league if the SEC calls.
09-25-2011 03:16 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #9
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 02:58 PM)omniorange Wrote:  
(09-25-2011 02:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  The #1 goal of the ACC (if the plan is to expand beyond 14) is to secure membership for Notre Dame.
Once that has been accomplished, other positive alternatives become possible. Is Penn State then on the table? If not, the next target should be South Carolina

While I would hope the league tries to get 2 football schools for #15 and #16 I am curious, why South Carolina? To own the state? Because they were an ACC school in the past? It's not as though they historically have been a football power.

Cheers,
Neil

Chases the SEC out of a shared state.
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Everybody still hates them
Southern team.
09-25-2011 03:26 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #10
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
Don't mis-read. Penn State would still be the first choice with Notre Dame.
09-25-2011 03:32 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 03:16 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote:  I'm also curious about the pick of South Carolina. I'd think it would be harder to pull a team from the SEC than it would from the B1G.

I'd think the next step would be creating a Network. We'd have to ask a question on how valuable Towson @ Maryland and Bethune Cookman @ Miami matchups are to ESPN. And I do know that BC @ Miami is on ESPNU as well. There is a lot of historical games that could be used for Inventory during weekdays as well. After a Network is in place, heading to 16 would be the logical route IMO.

After a Network is in place, Notre Dame would be mandatory to get to 16, otherwise it wouldn't be worth it. I do think Pitt and Syracuse are the perfect pawns to make the ACC enticing for ND. But hopefully a future Network would be enticing enough to keep a school from leaving the league if the SEC calls.

I'm not sure how a network would be set up without ESPN. ESPN owns all of the TV rights for the ACC.
09-25-2011 03:35 PM
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Post: #12
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 03:35 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-25-2011 03:16 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote:  I'm also curious about the pick of South Carolina. I'd think it would be harder to pull a team from the SEC than it would from the B1G.

I'd think the next step would be creating a Network. We'd have to ask a question on how valuable Towson @ Maryland and Bethune Cookman @ Miami matchups are to ESPN. And I do know that BC @ Miami is on ESPNU as well. There is a lot of historical games that could be used for Inventory during weekdays as well. After a Network is in place, heading to 16 would be the logical route IMO.

After a Network is in place, Notre Dame would be mandatory to get to 16, otherwise it wouldn't be worth it. I do think Pitt and Syracuse are the perfect pawns to make the ACC enticing for ND. But hopefully a future Network would be enticing enough to keep a school from leaving the league if the SEC calls.

I'm not sure how a network would be set up without ESPN. ESPN owns all of the TV rights for the ACC.

I'm saying that the Network could buy those games off of ESPN. Broke down some #'s above. Some of the #'s may be off as well.
09-25-2011 03:45 PM
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 12:36 PM)omniorange Wrote:  ...to match the likely Pac-16 with Texas and Oklahoma?

To me this is the goal the ACC should strive for and it should stop trying to be something it is not - the SEC - in terms of football.

Assuming the Pac-16 comes about with the Texahoma schools, this means that the Pac-16 will have:

1) An 8-state region comprised of California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Texas, and Oklahoma.

A) current TV households in those 8 states:

California - 12,449,860
Texas - 8,582,540
Washington - 2,472,850
Arizona - 2,339,030
Colorado - 1,949,120
Oregon - 1,670,380
Oklahoma - 1,504,540
Utah - 944,060

Total - 31,912,380 which is 27.8% of US Total TVHHs.


B) projected population of the 8 states by 2030:

California - 46,444,861 #1
Texas - 33,317,744 #2
Arizona - 10,712,397 #10
Washington - 8,624,801 #14
Colorado - 5,792,357 #22
Oregon - 4,833,918 #25
Oklahoma - 3,913,251 #30
Utah - 3,485,367 #32

Total - 116,624,696 which is 32% of the US Projected Population by 2030

2) In college football:

A) Three Kings: Southern Cal, Texas, Oklahoma

B) Three Barons: Oregon, Washington, UCLA

C) Potential Knights to Barons: Oklahoma State, Utah(?)

3) In college basketball:

A) Elite Powers: UCLA, Arizona

B) Next Level Down: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Washington, Stanford


So besides the obvious and unrealistic additions of PSU (not leaving the Big Ten) and ND (not giving up independence, but if they did, could choose ACC over Big Ten) which would clearly trump the above, what additions would the ACC need if BOTH PSU and ND did not join together?

Cheers,
Neil

Edited to add Stanford as a Next Level Down basketball program.

Currently, the ACC has one King (FSU) and two potential Kings (VT, Miami). So, you need more barons or knights with the potential to be barons to get close to the Pac 10.

Which are the barons (VT, Miami was a king - possible King again?) and the knights that can be barons that are current members of the ACC? UNC, GT, Clemson?

Anyway, the way I see it is that you have 4 'realistic' choices available (assuming neither PSU nor ND are available as you state above):

You can rule out schools coming from CUSA, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12 and SEC. You are essentially down to 4 choices:

UConn, Rutgers, WVu, and Louisville. RU and UConn have the academic credentials and populous states (NJ and CT) that would be nice additions to the ACC TV network. However, the big question is what are their growth potentials in FB in the ACC? UConn right now is 40k in FB and a BB elite. Rutgers is 45k (?) in FB and nothing in BB but their BB might grow in the ACC.

Again, can either of these schools get to 60-65k in FB in the ACC? I just don't see either RU or UConn ever being a knight with a possibility to be a baron in FB.

WVu is a FB Baron and UL is a FB knight with the potential to be a baron. WVu BB is next level down and UL is a BB elite. WVu could grow to 80k. UL certainly would grow in the ACC - I think 70-80k.

However, both are not in populous states (Kentucky is also a SEC state) and to the ACC presidents - they don't have the academics to get in.

Can a WVu-Ru combo help here - because UConn won't be a FB Baron and UL doesn't have the academics/population - what about adding the WVu FB Baron to Rutgers population as a compromise thereby adding one solid and one possible potential but have the fallback of they have a large population? You also possibly limit Big 10 expansion further east by taking Rutgers (of course the possible ND-PSU tandem would still be there) - at least geographically 03-wink I also think the ACC wouldn't add two academically low rated schools but a 'good' plus 'bad' would be more way more palateable?

Just some my thoughts of the top of my head.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2011 04:25 PM by SoCalPanther.)
09-25-2011 04:16 PM
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OrangeCrush22 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
I say the ACC shouldn't expand unless we can get Notre Dame and Penn State. If we do get Notre Dame, and Penn State won't leave, I would take Rutgers. They bring great recruiting territory, and if we're expanding to 16 there will be a North/South split. Making it harder for us to recruit Southern kids.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2011 04:31 PM by OrangeCrush22.)
09-25-2011 04:30 PM
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omniorange Offline
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 04:16 PM)Hoquista Wrote:  Currently, the ACC has one King (FSU) and two potential Kings (VT, Miami). So, you need more barons or knights with the potential to be barons to get close to the Pac 10.

Which are the barons (VT, Miami was a king - possible King again?) and the knights that can be barons that are current members of the ACC? UNC, GT, Clemson?

Every time I have this discussion on Kings, Barons, and Knights I get in trouble with my picks, so I will steal FrankTheTank's listings and let him take the heat. 03-nutkick

He wrote back in June of 2011:

Comparing it to Mandel's original list, I'd make a handful of changes, but I think it's still pretty good when looking at the long-term values of these schools. Here are my thoughts (* = move up from Mandel's list, ** = move down):

KINGS
Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Texas and USC.

BARONS
Auburn, Clemson, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa*, LSU, Oregon*, Tennessee**, Texas A&M, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia* and Wisconsin.

KNIGHTS
Arizona*, Arizona State, Arkansas, Boston College, BYU*, Cal, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kansas*, Kansas State, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina*, N.C. State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Stanford, Syracuse, South Carolina, TCU*, Texas Tech, Utah* and Virginia.


So, using his system, if the ACC gets ND, it has the three Kings to match a projected Pac-16. Although I think everyone knows the projected West Coast trio is on firmer ground than the projected East Coast trio.

The projected Pac-16 also has three Barons in Colorado, Oregon, and UCLA while the ACC has only VT and Clemson.

So this leads nicely into your discussion...


Quote:Anyway, the way I see it is that you have 4 'realistic' choices available (assuming neither PSU nor ND are available as you state above):

You can rule out schools coming from CUSA, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12 and SEC. You are essentially down to 4 choices:

UConn, Rutgers, WVu, and Louisville. RU and UConn have the academic credentials and populous states (NJ and CT) that would be nice additions to the ACC TV network. However, the big question is what are their growth potentials in FB in the ACC? UConn right now is 40k in FB and a BB elite. Rutgers is 45k (?) in FB and nothing in BB but their BB might grow in the ACC.

Again, can either of these schools get to 60-65k in FB in the ACC? I just don't see either RU or UConn ever being a knight with a possibility to be a baron in FB.

WVu is a FB Baron and UL is a FB Knight with the potential to be a Baron. WVu BB is next level down and UL is a BB elite. WVu could grow to 80k. UL certainly would grow in the ACC - I think 70-80k.

However, both are not in populous states (Kentucky is also a SEC state) and to the ACC presidents - they don't have the academics to get in.

Can a WVu-Ru combo help here - because UConn won't be a FB Baron and UL doesn't have the academics/population - what about adding the WVu FB Baron to Rutgers population as a compromise thereby adding one solid and one possible potential but have the fallback of they have a large population? You also possibly limit Big 10 expansion further east by taking Rutgers (of course the possible ND-PSU tandem would still be there) - at least geographically 03-wink I also think the ACC wouldn't add two academically low rated schools but a 'good' plus 'bad' would be more way more palateable?

Just some my thoughts of the top of my head.

If ND is out, I think WVU is critical. That gives the league three Barons in VT, WVU, and Clemson, one of which should develop into a King over time.

In the meantime, I believe that the trio of GT, Pitt, and SU have the coaches in place to possibly move from Knight to Baron - if GT isn't already one. Unlikely all three would in the same conference, but I could see 2 of the 3 moving up.

Others with thoughts on this?

Cheers,
Neil
09-25-2011 06:27 PM
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
I'd put Boise St. TCU, and Utah in the Baron catagory and put Tennessee, Colorado, UCLA, and Iowa in the Knight ranks. Also at what point does PSU drop from the ranks of kings. Out of the 3(if WVU was to join) I'd say Virginia Tech has the greatest chance of becoming a king.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2011 06:36 PM by ClairtonPanther.)
09-25-2011 06:35 PM
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 06:35 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote:  I'd put Boise St. TCU, and Utah in the Baron catagory and put Tennessee, Colorado, UCLA, and Iowa in the Knight ranks. Also at what point does PSU drop from the ranks of kings. Out of the 3(if WVU was to join) I'd say Virginia Tech has the greatest chance of becoming a king.

Hail Joey!

I didn't want to get into too much debate about who should be ranked in what category.

One of the reasons why I am using FTT's list is that he was basing his rankings on the perceived "value" of each of the programs to TV.

Even though ND, PSU, FSU, and Miami have not performed up to King level on the field, TV does appear to still want to show their games.

So, if we stick to that concept, I think we can see where the ACC might try and go in terms of #15 and #16 while also recognizing other factors will be at play such as academics. At least, I hope we can.

Cheers,
Neil
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2011 06:41 PM by omniorange.)
09-25-2011 06:40 PM
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Post: #18
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 04:16 PM)Hoquista Wrote:  Rutgers is 45k (?) in FB and nothing in BB but their BB might grow in the ACC.

Rutgers averaged 46k a game in 2010, and has a stadium capacity of 52,454. If Rutgers was good they could easily get up to 65k-70k. There basketball could improve too. They definitely have the arena for it.
09-25-2011 06:44 PM
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omniorange Offline
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RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
(09-25-2011 04:30 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  I say the ACC shouldn't expand unless we can get Notre Dame and Penn State. If we do get Notre Dame, and Penn State won't leave, I would take Rutgers. They bring great recruiting territory, and if we're expanding to 16 there will be a North/South split. Making it harder for us to recruit Southern kids.

My question to you is, if the ACC were to get ND, how likely would it be that ND would want Rutgers as #16?

Not sure ND wants any team to challenge their position in the NYC market and particularly would not want to help Rutgers in that regard.

But I could see a UConn/Rutgers, or WVU/Rutgers combo going to the ACC. I just don't see an ND/Rutgers combo.

Cheers,
Neil
09-25-2011 06:49 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #20
RE: What will it take for a new 16-team ACC...
still deliosnal in different conf
rutgers ends up in B-10
conn & temple in ACC
09-25-2011 11:05 PM
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