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Field Turf Offline
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Remaining 7 Games
We are an early 1.5 pt. favorite against Temple this week. For the rest of our games, NIU hosts Buffalo, CMU and Toledo and plays at Ball State, EMU and WMU. I don't think we'll be a spread underdog in any remaining regular season game.

Not saying we'll win all 7 remaining games, but based on spreads, we'll be expected to.
10-04-2010 08:04 AM
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Huskie_Jon Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
So far, the Huskies have beat the teams they were supposed to and also lost to them teams they were supposed to. Toledo is ranked about the same as NIU. If NIU slips and Toledo improves, UT could be favored at NIU.
10-04-2010 09:38 AM
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HuskiemobileMan Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 09:38 AM)Huskie_Jon Wrote:  So far, the Huskies have beat the teams they were supposed to and also lost to them teams they were supposed to. Toledo is ranked about the same as NIU. If NIU slips and Toledo improves, UT could be favored at NIU.
We were supposed to lose at Minn, and Toledo was supposed to beat Wyoming at home. I believe we are ranked above Toledo at this point.
10-04-2010 09:56 AM
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HuskieFan84 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
We were supposed to lose to Minnesota?
10-04-2010 10:01 AM
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HuskiemobileMan Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 10:01 AM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  We were supposed to lose to Minnesota?
They were favored by 3 or 4 points I think.
10-04-2010 10:13 AM
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Huskie359 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 10:13 AM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  
(10-04-2010 10:01 AM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  We were supposed to lose to Minnesota?
They were favored by 3 or 4 points I think.

Yes, I believe MN was -4.
10-04-2010 10:17 AM
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NIUtrav09 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
Anything less than 5-2 would be a disappointment in my eyes. I'd love to run the table but we'll slip up at least once somewhere.
10-04-2010 10:17 AM
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HuskieFan84 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
The line is not just a suggestion of what will happen. It's placed where people from both sides will bet equally of the line so the house is guaranteed a win.

Just because the line is -4 doesn't mean people who actually watch college football thought Minnesota would win. It means there are a lot of uninformed Big 10 fans that are going to bet on the Big 10 team at home.
10-04-2010 11:19 AM
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Huskie359 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 11:19 AM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  The line is not just a suggestion of what will happen. It's placed where people from both sides will bet equally of the line so the house is guaranteed a win.

Just because the line is -4 doesn't mean people who actually watch college football thought Minnesota would win. It means there are a lot of uninformed Big 10 fans that are going to bet on the Big 10 team at home.

I understand your point, but it is a measurable and tangible factor in determining who should win or lose. What other way can you define who is expected to win? Sagarin? IMO, point spreads determine favorites and underdogs...I'll go with this.
10-04-2010 11:22 AM
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Field Turf Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 09:38 AM)Huskie_Jon Wrote:  So far, the Huskies have beat the teams they were supposed to and also lost to them teams they were supposed to. Toledo is ranked about the same as NIU. If NIU slips and Toledo improves, UT could be favored at NIU.

The only way we won't be favored in any of our remaining games is if Harnish is out with an injury.
10-04-2010 11:44 AM
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HuskieFan84 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
359.. obviously you don't understand my point.

My point is it's not a tangible factor to determine who should win or lose. There's a reason you'll see the experts across the board pick against the spread sometimes. While often the spread is a good indicator of what the final outcome will be, that's only because as a group, bettors are going to be pretty close to the final outcome overall.

But it by no means should be used as a judge of who is favored going into the game. Especially when it's a Big 10 team, at home, vs. a rather non-descript MAC team. I'd imagine if we played Minnesota 10 times we'd win at least 7 or 8 of those games. We're just better, they're awful. Just as the big city teams like the Cubs, odds are always skewed towards them winning because they have such a large, uninformed fan base, so it would be with a Big 10 team.

That's why you don't bet on the Cubs to win the world series (besides the obvious reason). The odds are not accurate, they are skewed because Cubs fans are huge in number. It goes the same way with a Big 10 team playing a MAC team. That 4 point spread is not the expected outcome, it's the expected line where people would bet evenly for both teams.

Unfortunately a lot of gamblers have no clue what they are doing.

Edit: If it wasn't clear, I'm not suggesting Cubs fans on average are less informed than any other fan base, just that because their fan base is so huge, they are bound to have many more uninformed fans, betting for their favorite team without regard to logic.
(This post was last modified: 10-04-2010 12:37 PM by HuskieFan84.)
10-04-2010 12:33 PM
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Max Power Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 12:33 PM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  Edit: If it wasn't clear, I'm not suggesting Cubs fans on average are less informed than any other fan base,

Ha, I have no problem suggesting that.
10-04-2010 02:24 PM
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BrianNowicki Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 09:56 AM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  
(10-04-2010 09:38 AM)Huskie_Jon Wrote:  So far, the Huskies have beat the teams they were supposed to and also lost to them teams they were supposed to. Toledo is ranked about the same as NIU. If NIU slips and Toledo improves, UT could be favored at NIU.
We were supposed to lose at Minn, and Toledo was supposed to beat Wyoming at home. I believe we are ranked above Toledo at this point.

And Purdue was a 13.5 point favorite against Toledo, so what does that tell you? We don't know how good Wyoming is. I don't think they are very good. I think the reason Toledo lost is because of Toledo making mistake after mistake. We outplayed them and had just under 400 yards of total offense. But all that really matters is that we lost. And we play at Boise State next week, so Vegas isn't going to think much of Toledo for a while and it really doesn't mean anything.
10-04-2010 02:32 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
If NIU beats Temple, it is extremely hard to envision this team not going 10-2.
10-04-2010 03:08 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 02:32 PM)BrianNowicki Wrote:  
(10-04-2010 09:56 AM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  
(10-04-2010 09:38 AM)Huskie_Jon Wrote:  So far, the Huskies have beat the teams they were supposed to and also lost to them teams they were supposed to. Toledo is ranked about the same as NIU. If NIU slips and Toledo improves, UT could be favored at NIU.
We were supposed to lose at Minn, and Toledo was supposed to beat Wyoming at home. I believe we are ranked above Toledo at this point.

And Purdue was a 13.5 point favorite against Toledo, so what does that tell you? We don't know how good Wyoming is. I don't think they are very good. I think the reason Toledo lost is because of Toledo making mistake after mistake. We outplayed them and had just under 400 yards of total offense. But all that really matters is that we lost. And we play at Boise State next week, so Vegas isn't going to think much of Toledo for a while and it really doesn't mean anything.

I think we will get a pretty good indication of Toledo when they face Boise next week.

Im not saying Toledo is a good team, and I think NIU is going to beat them in Dekalb, but something about that Toledo/Boise St. game is sending a red flag to me, watch this game, it might be a little more interesting than expected.
(This post was last modified: 10-04-2010 03:13 PM by MaddDawgz02.)
10-04-2010 03:11 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
I don't think the Boise St./Toledo game will tell us much. Boise St. will roll against Toledo like they would any MAC team. And we'll still be at a loss to determine how good Toledo is compared to us.
10-04-2010 03:32 PM
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cyberdawg Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
The score of the BSU-CMU game in Mt P scares me to play in Herman Munster, IN. on Halloween weekend.
10-04-2010 03:36 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
Good thing we dont play there Halloween weekend then.
10-04-2010 04:10 PM
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cyberdawg Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 04:10 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Good thing we dont play there Halloween weekend then.


thanx.
my bad.
Confuserated WMU and BSU dates.
10-04-2010 04:43 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: Remaining 7 Games
(10-04-2010 04:43 PM)cyberdawg Wrote:  
(10-04-2010 04:10 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Good thing we dont play there Halloween weekend then.


thanx.
my bad.
Confuserated WMU and BSU dates.

Im looking foward to K-Zoo on halloween weekend. Ive been to al limited amount of MAC road venues (WMU, CMU, Toledo, BSU), but WMU is my favorite and Im going there this time too. I kind of wonder if attendance for WMU will be poor this go around, they are really struggling bad. When WMU gets people to attend, thats a great gameday atmosphere.

Cybes, are you realy scared of BSU? Do you think they can beat NIU?
10-04-2010 05:28 PM
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