Unemployment-The labor markets while still very weak look to be healing. March saw the first strong gain in employment since 2007 - 162,000 jobs were added. While the number was a bit skewed by Census hiring, even if we subtract the 48,000 temporary Census jobs, the economy added 114,000 jobs in March. Manufacturing and retail again saw increases in payrolls and temporary employment continued its upward path that started last September. Clearly, the economy is recovering for its sharp downturn. Most economic indicators show improvements, and the recovery in the labor markets appears to be in more solid footing. With productivity at historical highs, an expanding workweek, companies should start hiring (even if at a slow pace) soon. So far in this recession 8.2 million jobs have been lost. One of the big uncertainties remaining is whether the private sector will be able to expand without any additional government spending, most of which is set to end by late 2010 and last year supported much of the economic recovery in the second half.
I don't know how to post the graph. But the link is here.
http://trackthestimulus.com/How_is_the_c...doing.aspx
Home Sales and Inventory
The latest reports from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the US Census Bureau for February 2010 showed the third month in a row of reductions in the number of home sales after a very strong showing in the previous months. The latter was in large part driven in large part by the expiration of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit which was originally due at the end of November, but which has now been extended to June 2010. The decline in February was less pronounced than what was anticipated, however it followed steep declines in December and January resulting in renewed concerns over the health of the housing market.
http://trackthestimulus.com/Housing_Mark...stics.aspx
GDP quarterly
This efforts have paid off at the macro level. The US economy grew strongly in the second half of 2009, and the most dire predicaments were adverted. Unfortunately, while businesses (especially large, well capitalized ones) have seen an improvement in their fortunes, the consumer has taken the brunt of the financial storm. With unemployment at 10% and a steep loss of wealth, consumption has suffered, and consumers are less willing to part with their cash.
Close to 3.9% of the 5.9% GDP growth in 4Q09 was the result of inventory rebalancing. Inventories had contracted so rapidly during the first two quarter that businesses needed to re-stock to be back in business. Consumer spending increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter, which accounted for only 1.2% of the growth in GDP. Once inventories are back to normal levels, if the consumer does not support the economy, the US will be back to a very slow groth scenario. Unfortunately, an over-levered consumer is expected to continue the trend seen in 2009 of saving more and spending less. Good for the economy in the long term, but not a good harbinger for the short term.
http://trackthestimulus.com/Industry_Gro...istcs.aspx
