http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/s...atori.html

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison today launched a committee to explore a run for governor in 2010. It will become even more interesting to me if Bill White throws his hat in the ring too although I suspect it might be White vs. Dewhurst for Hutchison's senate spot after she beats Perry.

The conversations I've had with her indicate that she's ready to return to Texas. I would not be surprised to see her resign her seat prior to the primary, though she's clearly under no obligation to do so and can stay in her seat all the way through the general election (her current term goes through 2012). If she were to lose, she would remain our Senator.

Whenever she resigns her seat, Perry will get to appoint a temporary Senator (if I were Dewhurst, I wouldn't be holding my breath) and an election will follow. Whether it is a special election or not will depend on whether she resigns on EXACTLY January 1, 2010 (general election process) or any other day (special election process). (The law provides for a general election process if the vacancy occurs on/after January 1 of an even numbered year but at least 62 days prior to the party primary. With the party primary on March 2, 2010, January 1 is the only day of the year that is 62 days prior to the primary). With it likely to be a special election, expect some serious infighting amongst GOPers that could offer an opportunity for a Dem to run away with it. It's almost certain to go to a runoff though. All of that said, it also would not surprise me for her to resign exactly on January 1 simply for the sake of a general election process.

The GOP should not be feeling too comfortable about their ability to hold that seat in 2010. While I don't think any Dem will be able to beat KBH, take a look at this Hill Research Poll on generic ballot options:

texd, what's your impression of a KBH candidacy for governor? It seems to me she would mop the floor with Perry for the Republican nomination. But there was an article in the Comical about what a bruising primary it would be. Is there that much party support for Perry? I never got the impression he was all that popular a governor but his opponents have just been incredibly weak and he had the advantage of incumbency.

Well, Perry has some money (about $3-3.5 million), and some money men. But he has done a lot to alienate many in the party.

Just looking at the origin of his statewide career, you can see some of this. The farmers and ranchers recruited him to run against Hightower for ag commissioner and he won. He kind of drifted away from those guys bit by bit, but never so much as when he laid out his Trans-Texas Corridor plan. The original plan called for a half-mile wide right-of-way to cover 4,000 linear miles. That's 2000 sections (1.28 million acres) that farmers and ranchers didn't want to give up... and this is what he suggested for the guys who got him elected to his first statewide office.

Add to that the impatience factor. Used to be, there were few enough viable Republicans seeking state office that they could all wait their turns like good girls and boys. They even got rid of a state office that a Republican held at the request of the holder (State Treasurer -- when KBH held it). But with Perry hanging on to the Governor's office for 10 years and seeking more, he's not likely to get a lot of support from the down-ballot GOPers who are looking to move up a rung or two.

I don't doubt that he has the money to make it an ugly primary campaign. I do doubt whether he has the support to make it a close primary election.

(BTW, I very much expect to hear KBH, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama in the same sentence in campaign ads, however strained the connection they claim).

ETA: There were a number of Republicans in close House and Senate races last month who were none too pleased by the Governor's fundraising efforts. In the last two weeks before E-day and the first week after E-day, the governor had no fewer than ten fundraisers around the state. No telling how much money he took away from Republican candidates who were actually on the ballot.

I would like to announce my candidacy for governor in 2010. THRILL is going to run my campaign. Free "Sleepy Owl for Governor" Sham-Wows for every donation...because I plan to wipe the floor with K. Bailout Hutchison.

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/arc...ays_1.html

I'd give $1000.00 for KBH to come back to Texas and *****-slap Governor Goodhair and his minions.

I'm embarrassed. I saw the title of the thread and saw that it was on a Rice message board, and without knowing his middle name, just assumed that Ken Hatfield was thinking for running for governor of Arkansas.

WMD Owl Wrote:I'd give $1000.00 for KBH to come back to Texas and *****-slap Governor Goodhair and his minions.

I was going to say you can do just that, but apparently her website does not yet have a donation page.

OT, Kay's campaign treasurer is Allan Shivers Jr. If the State had bought the Shivers mansion when the University sold it a few years back, we would have a suitable alternative governors mansion during the renovations and subsequent arson. Instead the state has been paying $10k/month to rent a big house since the renovations began.

As an outside observer, let me ask the question - why would KBH make a good governor? Because as a non-Texas resident, but political semi-junkie, I really don't get the sense that she's led anything important in her time as Senator. She seems just like another face in the Senate. So can someone help me understand what the appeal would be and why she might make a good governor?

gsloth Wrote:As an outside observer, let me ask the question - why would KBH make a good governor? Because as a non-Texas resident, but political semi-junkie, I really don't get the sense that she's led anything important in her time as Senator. She seems just like another face in the Senate. So can someone help me understand what the appeal would be and why she might make a good governor?

Um... Because she's Change We Can Believe In?

(I'm not sure if that was a set-up or not!)

gsloth Wrote:As an outside observer, let me ask the question - why would KBH make a good governor? Because as a non-Texas resident, but political semi-junkie, I really don't get the sense that she's led anything important in her time as Senator. She seems just like another face in the Senate. So can someone help me understand what the appeal would be and why she might make a good governor?

Well, Texas governor is super weak, so to me it's less that she'd be an especially good governor and more that she's a better face for the state and especially the GOP. She was behind McCain's sensible immigration reform and generally takes a pragmatic approach to the issues that I appreciate.

In general I vote for whoever of "not Rick Perry" has the best chance of winning. But based on what I know now, she's also my most preferred candidate (ick to Dewhurst, although I do like White a lot, too) at this point.

erice Wrote:

gsloth Wrote:As an outside observer, let me ask the question - why would KBH make a good governor? Because as a non-Texas resident, but political semi-junkie, I really don't get the sense that she's led anything important in her time as Senator. She seems just like another face in the Senate. So can someone help me understand what the appeal would be and why she might make a good governor?

Um... Because she's Change We Can Believe In?

(I'm not sure if that was a set-up or not!)

Exactly, because she isn't Rick Perry.

After pulling his Gardasil and Trans Texas Corridor garbage, how Perry retains his support among the Republican base amazes me. But give the base an option, they will vote for KBH. Her only weak spot among the base is that she is Pro-Choice.

For the record, it is not a set up. I haven't lived in Texas since I graduated in 1991, so I really am not deep into all of the details and personalities. (And thanks for the reminder that the Texas governor is a rather limited one, compared to most states. I was at least aware of that.)

Public Policy Polling (a robo-call polling service) has released a poll showing KBH leading Perry by 25 points (56-31%) among likely GOP primary voters.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P...as_224.pdf

BTW, PPP defended robo-call polling as being accurate by pointing to their very accurate results the day before Texas GOP primary where McCain took 51% and Huckabee 38% (their poll from 3/3 showed 50-38):

http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uplo...030508.JPG

Here are my observations regarding automated phone polling vs personal phone polling techniques... this is completely non-scientific, but I feel fairly good about my conclusions:

Automated Polling Results:
Faster
More likely to result in non-participation
... as a result, more reliant on voters with STRONG opinions at the time of the poll
Thus, less representative of the electorate as a whole (with exception -- read on)

Personal Polling Results:
Slower
More likely to result in participation even among undecideds who will still show up on election day
Thus more representative of the electorate as a whole (with exception)

Exceptions:
As election day approaches, the automated polling results are going to be more precise. Further, if it is a tight race and it's going to fall to undecideds, as election day approaches, the personal polling results will be less precise -- because they're always a couple days old.

So, as election day draws near, the results from automated and personal methods will converge in precision; if it's a tight race, the automatic methods may even surpass the personal methods in the last couple days because people are still making up their minds and the automatic polling methods are better able to keep up with the dynamics such a race at that late stage.

But right now, more than a year out from the primary, I wouldn't put much stock in an automated phone poll. (One only need look at the undecideds in today's release to figure that out... only 13% of likely GOP voters undecided at more than a year out is absurdly -- and improbably -- low.)

As for PPP's defense of automated polling, they point to their numbers from the day before the 2008 primary as evidence that automated polling works. That doesn't say anything, however, about the relative value of automated polling months (in this case 12 months) prior to an election though.

I do think KBH will beat the tar out of RP come primary day, but this poll does little to reinforce that belief.

Regards,
Mike Duncan

I know you made the caution about this being so far out, but isn't a primary just the type of election where those with strong opinions are the ones more likely to show up? The pool expands more in the general election, but primaries just don't draw the casual voter the same way.

Of course, I'm somewhat the exception - I vote in primaries (almost without exception), but would never answer a poll.

(02-24-2009 01:41 PM)gsloth Wrote:  I know you made the caution about this being so far out, but isn't a primary just the type of election where those with strong opinions are the ones more likely to show up? The pool expands more in the general election, but primaries just don't draw the casual voter the same way.

Of course, I'm somewhat the exception - I vote in primaries (almost without exception), but would never answer a poll.

No surprise on KBH being so far ahead in the polls. Perry is hurting politically and financially as many of his Big Buck supporters in the past have defected to KBH.

You know Gov. Perry's goose is cooked with Bob Perry (the homebuilder and no relation) is the last rat off the Governor's sinking ship.

(02-24-2009 01:41 PM)gsloth Wrote:  I know you made the caution about this being so far out, but isn't a primary just the type of election where those with strong opinions are the ones more likely to show up? The pool expands more in the general election, but primaries just don't draw the casual voter the same way.

Of course, I'm somewhat the exception - I vote in primaries (almost without exception), but would never answer a poll.

Well, yes, but presumably they've already screened for that since this was a poll of "likely Republican primary voters." Such a screen for a governor's race would probably require the voters to at least have voted in both the 2008 and 2006 GOP primaries. I wouldn't be surprised if the sample were also a bit weighted towards those who have also voted in GOP primary run-offs.

Bonehead moves like this make KBH's nomination almost a slam dunk.

"But a couple weeks ago, Perry’s shameless pandering to the fire-and-brimstone fringes of his party crossed a line into absurdity.

He appointed a Burleson woman to the Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles whose criminal justice experience doesn’t seem to extend far beyond a stint on the North Texas town’s powerful Morality Mafia.

Shanda Perkins not only served on the miniskirt task force of the local Chamber of Commerce, she helped arouse a revolt against sex toy parties facilitated by a state ban on obscene devices ultimately deemed unconstitutional by a federal appeals court.

A 2004 Dallas Observer story details how Perkins became offended by the length of a fellow chamber ambassador’s skirts and launched a dress code committee to save the city from Joanne Webb’s 40-something thighs. It amounted to a Harper Valley PTA-style grilling of Webb and her husband’s rumored moral failings.

Perkins had her fill when Webb started hosting “Passion Parties,” which peddle everything from fishnet body stockings to edible lotions to vibrators named Jack Rabbit. The Observer reported that several people told Webb that Perkins had begun circulating a 1988 city ordinance banning sexually oriented businesses to see if it could be used to shut her down.

Sex toy sting

In a case that made international news, Webb the ***** dealer was arrested after a quickie sex toy sting by two undercover officers posing as a couple wanting to make a purchase from Webb’s catalog. The Johnson County district attorney later dropped the charges against Webb, he said, to avoid wasting county resources. But by then, the Webbs had filed for bankruptcy.

Perry’s news release on Feb. 12 announcing Perkins’ appointment identifies her as a retired banking executive. Unlike the two other appointees in the news release, Perkins’ biographical profile contains no criminal justice experience. Instead, it tells of her membership in the United Way, the Lions Club, the Chamber and as a Sunday school teacher.

I called Perkins to get her side. She said she’d call me back the next morning. I’m still waiting.

Perry’s spokeswoman Allison Castle said the governor has known Perkins for “many years” and believes she’s “the most qualified candidate.” Castle said Perkins did indeed possess the experience necessary for the post: She worked in prison ministry and as a counselor for children who were victims of sexual abuse."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metr...81548.html

The republicans are making themselves irrelevant by pandering in increasingly ridiculous ways to the religious right.
The democrats are making themselves into a plague that will ultimately devastate the American economy.
Is there any basis for hope?

If the Obama "stimulus" package works, we're well on our way to becoming the People's
Democratic Republic of Amerika.
If it doesn't, and if we get into an "anybody but Obama" mood to rival the "anybody but Bush" mood, then the republicans are probably going to run somebody like Pat Robertson and win.
Neither scenario does anything to make me want to stay around for it.
Is there any way that life here can be worth living? Serious question.