(07-26-2024 08:09 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 08:03 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 07:20 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  The polls are much more even again. They were just trying to manipulate people so they could pull the plug on Biden.

God only knows what people are really thinking.

Trump winning the swing states +5 would not surprise me, Kamala winning them +5 wouldn't surprise me.

I can tell you it's not gonna be close. The polls are misleading you on that. The winner will win most of the swing states, maybe all of them.

Bingo

Stepped into the bear trap they set.

I could actually buy something like this that didn’t include Kamala but she’s too damn dumb to be part of any master plan.

Besides early polling isn’t changing for Democrats going from Biden to Harris. The conventional thought explained in the video I linked above is voters are tying her to the Biden administration’s failures.

Voters were only bailing on Dems because he was soooo feeble. It has nothing to do with the administration or its failed policies. People don’t vote on policy in this country. The Dems were running a corpse and were basically neck and neck. Kamala as the nominee is no better or worse than anyone else they could run. She’ll get close to 90 million votes in November.

My bet is she wins every state Joe won plus NC.

(07-26-2024 08:09 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 08:03 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 07:20 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  The polls are much more even again. They were just trying to manipulate people so they could pull the plug on Biden.

God only knows what people are really thinking.

Trump winning the swing states +5 would not surprise me, Kamala winning them +5 wouldn't surprise me.

I can tell you it's not gonna be close. The polls are misleading you on that. The winner will win most of the swing states, maybe all of them.

Bingo

Stepped into the bear trap they set.

I could actually buy something like this that didn’t include Kamala but she’s too damn dumb to be part of any master plan.

Besides early polling isn’t changing for Democrats going from Biden to Harris. The conventional thought explained in the video I linked above is voters are tying her to the Biden administration’s failures.

Trump needs to keep hammering these 2 things - BidenKamala-nomics and border czar. Even explain in basic terms to the low IQ folks that more illegals continue to be a drain on the economy. Still believe that more women than you think won’t vote for her. Those ladies buy grocies every week, they put gas in their vehicles to haul kids around.

Even with a San Fransico communist clueless wench who didn't get a single primary vote in two cycles we are at best at a coin flip right now IMO.

This race will be won or lost by the end of the DNC convention.

Man republicans are shell shocked. Scared of the fix.

There’s 90 days for Kumswallow to cackle herself all the way to get skulldrug. What we are seeing now should be expected. Just don’t forget she had an approval rate hovering and an average Major League Baseball batting average. This has only just begun. I’ll remind you that a month ago you all were convinced uncle Joe would win.

Oh man do people not get it.

She's awful.

Black and a woman?

You'll get a full turnout and 95% of 13% of the population just for breathing.

Then add in the suburban Karen's who can't wait to vote for a woman.

I'm going to make $$ on my bets at least.

Kamala will get 270. Trump 268. Kamala will ultimately win swing states Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia just enough to edge Trump out. If Trump can hold on to a Pennsylvania he wins. Big if. Kamala can go with Shapiro and win Pennsylvania. If she tabs Senator Mark Kelly she might Win Arizona (this is the dude Obama wants her to pick). This is riskier because Pennsylvania is looking decent for Trump so even if Kelly delivers vers Arizona and she loses Pennsylvania she is still only at 262, far short of the 270 she needs.

(07-26-2024 09:50 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Oh man do people not get it.

She's awful.

Black and a woman?

You'll get a full turnout and 95% of 13% of the population just for breathing.

Then add in the suburban Karen's who can't wait to vote for a woman.

I'm going to make $$ on my bets at least.

What site you using? Smooth Billy Apollo needs to get in on that action.

(07-26-2024 07:20 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  The polls are much more even again. They were just trying to manipulate people so they could pull the plug on Biden.

God only knows what people are really thinking.

Trump winning the swing states +5 would not surprise me, Kamala winning them +5 wouldn't surprise me.

I can tell you it's not gonna be close. The polls are misleading you on that. The winner will win most of the swing states, maybe all of them.

I agree the winner will probably win 5 of 7 current swing states

(07-26-2024 10:00 PM)No Bull Wrote:  Kamala will get 270. Trump 268. Kamala will ultimately win swing states Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia just enough to edge Trump out. If Trump can hold on to a Pennsylvania he wins. Big if. Kamala can go with Shapiro and win Pennsylvania. If she tabs Senator Mark Kelly she might Win Arizona (this is the dude Obama wants her to pick). This is riskier because Pennsylvania is looking decent for Trump so even if Kelly delivers vers Arizona and she loses Pennsylvania she is still only at 262, far short of the 270 she needs.

Trump needs to defend the red states, win all the swing states and then one of Wisconsin, Michigan or PA. It's been the same calculus for a year.

(07-27-2024 06:48 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 10:00 PM)No Bull Wrote:  Kamala will get 270. Trump 268. Kamala will ultimately win swing states Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia just enough to edge Trump out. If Trump can hold on to a Pennsylvania he wins. Big if. Kamala can go with Shapiro and win Pennsylvania. If she tabs Senator Mark Kelly she might Win Arizona (this is the dude Obama wants her to pick). This is riskier because Pennsylvania is looking decent for Trump so even if Kelly delivers vers Arizona and she loses Pennsylvania she is still only at 262, far short of the 270 she needs.

Trump needs to defend the red states, win all the swing states and then one of Wisconsin, Michigan or PA. It's been the same calculus for a year.

He has a good shot at PA but if Kamala is smart she picks Shapiro and that might seal the deal for her.

(07-27-2024 07:41 AM)No Bull Wrote:  

(07-27-2024 06:48 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 10:00 PM)No Bull Wrote:  Kamala will get 270. Trump 268. Kamala will ultimately win swing states Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia just enough to edge Trump out. If Trump can hold on to a Pennsylvania he wins. Big if. Kamala can go with Shapiro and win Pennsylvania. If she tabs Senator Mark Kelly she might Win Arizona (this is the dude Obama wants her to pick). This is riskier because Pennsylvania is looking decent for Trump so even if Kelly delivers vers Arizona and she loses Pennsylvania she is still only at 262, far short of the 270 she needs.

Trump needs to defend the red states, win all the swing states and then one of Wisconsin, Michigan or PA. It's been the same calculus for a year.

He has a good shot at PA but if Kamala is smart she picks Shapiro and that might seal the deal for her.

Yeah, Shapiro has great approval percentages in PA. Remember, nobody votes for the VP (insert eye roll). Detroit will carry MI with the black and woman vote. Wisconsin is going to be ground zero. Reason the RNC picked Milwaukee.

(07-26-2024 07:20 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  The polls are much more even again. They were just trying to manipulate people so they could pull the plug on Biden.

God only knows what people are really thinking.

Trump winning the swing states +5 would not surprise me, Kamala winning them +5 wouldn't surprise me.

I can tell you it's not gonna be close. The polls are misleading you on that. The winner will win most of the swing states, maybe all of them.

HERE WE GO AGAIN

(07-27-2024 06:48 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Trump needs to defend the red states, win all the swing states and then one of Wisconsin, Michigan or PA. It's been the same calculus for a year.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania aren’t swing states?

(07-27-2024 07:41 AM)No Bull Wrote:  [Trump] has a good shot at PA but if Kamala is smart she picks Shapiro and that might seal the deal for her.

Agree with your comment, but Shapiro is highly problematic for many Dems. We’ll see what happens but right now I’d be shocked if Shapiro gets the VP nod. He may genuinely not want it, tbh.

I’m thinking the top 2 choices are Mark Kelly (AZ) and Roy Cooper (NC).

Democrats don't like Jews. Kamala is married to one. That is one too many for them, already.

(07-27-2024 04:17 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-27-2024 06:48 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Trump needs to defend the red states, win all the swing states and then one of Wisconsin, Michigan or PA. It's been the same calculus for a year.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania aren’t swing states?

(07-27-2024 07:41 AM)No Bull Wrote:  [Trump] has a good shot at PA but if Kamala is smart she picks Shapiro and that might seal the deal for her.

Agree with your comment, but Shapiro is highly problematic for many Dems. We’ll see what happens but right now I’d be shocked if Shapiro gets the VP nod. He may genuinely not want it, tbh.

I’m thinking the top 2 choices are Mark Kelly (AZ) and Roy Cooper (NC).

https://twitter.com/Rover829/status/1817217072142618710

BLOOMING ONION

It will be Shapiro. She has no path without Pennsylvania.

(07-27-2024 04:05 PM)green Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 07:20 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  The polls are much more even again. They were just trying to manipulate people so they could pull the plug on Biden.

God only knows what people are really thinking.

Trump winning the swing states +5 would not surprise me, Kamala winning them +5 wouldn't surprise me.

I can tell you it's not gonna be close. The polls are misleading you on that. The winner will win most of the swing states, maybe all of them.

HERE WE GO AGAIN

Wall Street Journal poll today has it tight about everywhere now. Trump +2 nationally. Tied in MI and Harris is up in WI and is now up 7 in MN.

Most alarming thing in that poll is democrats' enthusiasm for Biden was 38%. It's now 81% for Harris.

Upside is this time in 2020, this same poll had Trump down 9 so he's in way better shape.

(07-27-2024 07:08 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  It will be Shapiro. She has no path without Pennsylvania.

Shapiro is the high-risk / high-reward pick, IMHO. Definitely helps with the biggest toss-up state, also helps with Jews. From a GOP standpoint, I’d consider him the most dangerous opponent.

But it’s just a fact that he represents a “Hard Pass” from other groups in the Dem. coalition. My honest belief is that Harris is putting him on the public shortlist to gauge reaction, and will eventually go with someone else. I actually thought Roy Cooper would be on that list (the public one), too. Surprised he’s not. Kelly, of course he’s a contender. Walz is loved by the base and the left. Not sure what he offers the median voter in places like GA, AZ, NV, etc. Or even in PA for that matter.

I think Harris will begin to drop in popularity after the newness wears off. They chose Harris too soon, I think they should have waited a little longer.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

I think it will be Kelly, but who knows? Good thing he's not stuck in a capsule up in space.