(07-05-2024 06:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(07-04-2024 11:23 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  

(07-04-2024 10:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-04-2024 10:44 PM)Acres Wrote:  Here’s an outrageous take. I’d say the SEC and BIG are maxed out. I think in 2030s, instead of further expansion , these conferences will contract.
Current spending level are unsustainable. Reaching a point of diminishing returns.

I think it starts with the BIG, where networks balk at their post pandemic free spending posture. A network or two will back out in 2030 in my opinion . At which point will Oregon and Washington really receive full shares or are they better off reconstituting a west coast conference, with USC and UCLA, without previous conference anchors.

The SEC is maxed out. All valuable pieces outside of ND, Florida State, Clemson are in it. How else would espn squeeze value out of it other breaking it up, discarding the chaff.

It’s inevitable, called it here first.

What is inevitable on this forum every time we have a realignment cycle is some form of piss ant schadenfreude! Every time we hear the same predictions of doom and gloom for the SEC and Big 10. All I have to say about this is that if it happens it's curtains for everyone else too. This country has a habit of not letting institutions which screw up fail. Remember the banking crisis? And the public hated big banks. Well, the public loves their big schools. I like their odds even more than I liked the odds of the banks and I'll promise you in advance that in neither case will we have held the bad decision makers accountable.

What's coming is coming and the damages and court orders will be the justification for any or all of it.

I kinda agree. I felt they both were maxed ten years ago and they're still expanding. Consolidation is the name of the game unfortunately. In the long term, this will destroy football as an entity. The people in power are too blinded by gwap to see 50 years in the future.

In baseball, soccer, and hockey and lesser degree basketball people will go watch teams not at the elite level.

Is the future going to be frustrating for the Pac-12 and ACC schools and Big XII schools left out of the P2? Yeah, maybe it hurts them but if your gate was based on USC or Texas or Clemson visiting, you were vulnerable. The game is first and foremost selling tickets, getting donations, and selling sponsors who want those in-stadium and in-arena exposures.

The rest of FBS? The rest of Division I? They will still get some TV money, they will still have people buying tickets and donating and many will be pulling more than half of operating revenue from the school.

They will laugh at the kid who demands $100,000 to go play football in Muncie because the school probably won't have it to pay and the kid won't have an offer from anyone willing to give more than room/board/books/tuition and maybe a $1000 NIL. If the kid's not an idiot he takes the offer and tries to become good enough to get an offer from West Virginia and Pitt and then hope he does well enough to get an offer from Michigan State and Mississippi State after that.

Coaches will go from touting we got five guys playing in the NFL now to hey we got 20 guys in the ACC and Big XII now and 11 in the P2.

I mean look at how soccer operates and how minor leagues did in baseball until the system collapsed after everyone bought a TV and an air conditioner. [b]You sign prospects and sell them as they develop and you take the big guys roster excess "on loan" or when they get cut.[/i]

Will it look different? Yeah but the insanity might actually end because the go up realignment and got left behind realignment madness will end.

That's a radical concept here in the States, but in soccer...yeah, they all do that, and it works. You want to get that 4* stud who's stuck on the bench at Georgia some playing time? Loan him to Georgia St for a year or 2.

(07-06-2024 02:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  Our best hope for some return to regionality would be a P1. The SEC and Big 10 merge administratively, expand, but create 3 conferences-Big 10, SEC and the core of the Pac 16 proposal.
Each conference has 5 western additions. The Big 10 has 13 in the east and the SEC 11, 13 if you add FSU and Clemson. So you create 3 conferences of 14-16 teams each. With 14 it looks like:
Big 10-Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan St., Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Maryland, Rutgers + Notre Dame.
SEC-LSU, Ole Miss, Miss. St., Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida + Florida St., Clemson and North Carolina.
New West-USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas + Kansas, Colorado, Arizona St., and Stanford.

That leaves a Big 12 with 13-BYU, Utah, Arizona, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Iowa St., Cincinnati, WVU and UCF and the ACC with 13-Cal, SMU, Miami, Georgia Tech, NCSU, Duke, Wake Forest, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pitt and Syracuse. They probably form an M1 with 2 conferences and fill in with UConn and USF, maybe moving Cal and SMU west and UCF east.

If you go to 16X3 then UVA, Miami, VT, NCSU, Arizona, and Cal are the most likely lucky invitees.

A P1 is an invitation to get the Department of Justice to come rolling in yelling monopoly.

There are 2 factors that will determine if the ACC folds. First is the media contract. If it decreases enough the schools will look elsewhere. If it stays the same or a marginal decrease, the ACC will continue (assuming half the league doesn't leave).

The second factor is the B12. They act like they would welcome ACC schools. Can their contract support another 4-6 teams?

I also find it curious that the B12 didn't take any California schools after the P12 breakup. Cal and Stanford were clearly ready to make a deal. Maybe not the ACC deal, but a deal. Having history with the 4 corner schools would be an advantage. SDSU was/is probably available. California is a populous state. The B12 didn't make a move. Maybe their media contact is maxed out?

(07-08-2024 07:10 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  There are 2 factors that will determine if the ACC folds. First is the media contract. If it decreases enough the schools will look elsewhere. If it stays the same or a marginal decrease, the ACC will continue (assuming half the league doesn't leave).

It won't decrease as long as there are 15 member schools.

The second factor is the B12. They act like they would welcome ACC schools. Can their contract support another 4-6 teams?

Not their current contract. Their next negotiation will be interesting.

I also find it curious that the B12 didn't take any California schools after the P12 breakup. Cal and Stanford were clearly ready to make a deal. Maybe not the ACC deal, but a deal. Having history with the 4 corner schools would be an advantage. SDSU was/is probably available. California is a populous state. The B12 didn't make a move. Maybe their media contact is maxed out?

They never targeted Stanford and Cal (as they were known Big Ten targets), but SDSU was on the infamous Whiteboard. They only had four pro-rata additions to play with, otherwise they would have had to issue partial payments.

(07-08-2024 07:10 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  There are 2 factors that will determine if the ACC folds. First is the media contract. If it decreases enough the schools will look elsewhere. If it stays the same or a marginal decrease, the ACC will continue (assuming half the league doesn't leave).

The second factor is the B12. They act like they would welcome ACC schools. Can their contract support another 4-6 teams?

I also find it curious that the B12 didn't take any California schools after the P12 breakup. Cal and Stanford were clearly ready to make a deal. Maybe not the ACC deal, but a deal. Having history with the 4 corner schools would be an advantage. SDSU was/is probably available. California is a populous state. The B12 didn't make a move. Maybe their media contact is maxed out?

All the chatter was that Utah took the deal to the Big 12 kicking and screaming. They wanted the PAC to survive. Cal and Stanford wanted nothing to do with the Big 12. I would not be surprised if the TV deal negotiations go poorly and Utah, Kansas, TCU, Ok State, Texas Tech, Colorado and Arizona end up in the ACC

(07-08-2024 08:54 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(07-08-2024 07:10 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  There are 2 factors that will determine if the ACC folds. First is the media contract. If it decreases enough the schools will look elsewhere. If it stays the same or a marginal decrease, the ACC will continue (assuming half the league doesn't leave).

The second factor is the B12. They act like they would welcome ACC schools. Can their contract support another 4-6 teams?

I also find it curious that the B12 didn't take any California schools after the P12 breakup. Cal and Stanford were clearly ready to make a deal. Maybe not the ACC deal, but a deal. Having history with the 4 corner schools would be an advantage. SDSU was/is probably available. California is a populous state. The B12 didn't make a move. Maybe their media contact is maxed out?

All the chatter was that Utah took the deal to the Big 12 kicking and screaming. They wanted the PAC to survive. Cal and Stanford wanted nothing to do with the Big 12. I would not be surprised if the TV deal negotiations go poorly and Utah, Kansas, TCU, Ok State, Texas Tech, Colorado and Arizona end up in the ACC

I hope eventually we have P3 + M1. ACC in P3 and Big 12 in M1.

(07-08-2024 01:39 PM)Blust3 Wrote:  

(07-08-2024 08:54 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(07-08-2024 07:10 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  There are 2 factors that will determine if the ACC folds. First is the media contract. If it decreases enough the schools will look elsewhere. If it stays the same or a marginal decrease, the ACC will continue (assuming half the league doesn't leave).

The second factor is the B12. They act like they would welcome ACC schools. Can their contract support another 4-6 teams?

I also find it curious that the B12 didn't take any California schools after the P12 breakup. Cal and Stanford were clearly ready to make a deal. Maybe not the ACC deal, but a deal. Having history with the 4 corner schools would be an advantage. SDSU was/is probably available. California is a populous state. The B12 didn't make a move. Maybe their media contact is maxed out?

All the chatter was that Utah took the deal to the Big 12 kicking and screaming. They wanted the PAC to survive. Cal and Stanford wanted nothing to do with the Big 12. I would not be surprised if the TV deal negotiations go poorly and Utah, Kansas, TCU, Ok State, Texas Tech, Colorado and Arizona end up in the ACC

I hope eventually we have P3 + M1. ACC in P3 and Big 12 in M1.

If the ACC loses Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina, or should Notre Dame for any reason, commit to a conference for football, then there is no possibility of a P3 because a Super 2 will exist without the value in brands left on the table for a third to be formed. At that point the best that can be hoped for is a Super 2 in football branding and a Power 2 functioning as Middle 2 for football but organized around strong basketball branding. But even then, the two hoops focused conferences would be thin and perhaps would earn more if they coalesced into one.

(07-05-2024 07:36 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.

Independence isn't just "part of ND's athletic identity". It is the centerpiece of it.

The deep concern for the future of ND athletics is very touching.

Big Ten people don't want ND to join so that it helps ND. Lets drop that act right now.

ND will be fine. People have been underestimating ND in the conference realignment wars for over thirty years now.

ND is not going to budge. Big Ten fans should be used to that by now.

Notre Dame reminds me of those self-absorbed Texans who clamor for independence and threaten secession until it rains enough to flood the streets of Houston -- a happenstance which occurs with monotonous regularity. Then they beg for federal disaster relief.

ND isn't truly independent. If it were, it wouldn't have parasitized the Big East and it wouldn't be parasitizing the ACC. Without some kind of conference affiliation nowadays, Notre Dame's athletic fortunes would likely decline and it would be just an academically superior private university -- one among many (an enviable status in its own right, I might add).

(07-08-2024 06:27 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(07-05-2024 07:36 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.

Independence isn't just "part of ND's athletic identity". It is the centerpiece of it.

The deep concern for the future of ND athletics is very touching.

Big Ten people don't want ND to join so that it helps ND. Lets drop that act right now.

ND will be fine. People have been underestimating ND in the conference realignment wars for over thirty years now.

ND is not going to budge. Big Ten fans should be used to that by now.

Notre Dame reminds me of those self-absorbed Texans who clamor for independence and threaten secession until it rains enough to flood the streets of Houston -- a happenstance which occurs with monotonous regularity. Then they beg for federal disaster relief.

ND isn't truly independent. If it were, it wouldn't have parasitized the Big East and it wouldn't be parasitizing the ACC. Without some kind of conference affiliation nowadays, Notre Dame's athletic fortunes would likely decline and it would be just an academically superior private university -- one among many (an enviable status in its own right, I might add).

That is one opinion, anyway. Thanks.

The people who make the decisions at ND have a different one.