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Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #141
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 11:23 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:44 PM)Acres Wrote:  Here’s an outrageous take. I’d say the SEC and BIG are maxed out. I think in 2030s, instead of further expansion , these conferences will contract.
Current spending level are unsustainable. Reaching a point of diminishing returns.

I think it starts with the BIG, where networks balk at their post pandemic free spending posture. A network or two will back out in 2030 in my opinion . At which point will Oregon and Washington really receive full shares or are they better off reconstituting a west coast conference, with USC and UCLA, without previous conference anchors.

The SEC is maxed out. All valuable pieces outside of ND, Florida State, Clemson are in it. How else would espn squeeze value out of it other breaking it up, discarding the chaff.

It’s inevitable, called it here first.

What is inevitable on this forum every time we have a realignment cycle is some form of piss ant schadenfreude! Every time we hear the same predictions of doom and gloom for the SEC and Big 10. All I have to say about this is that if it happens it's curtains for everyone else too. This country has a habit of not letting institutions which screw up fail. Remember the banking crisis? And the public hated big banks. Well, the public loves their big schools. I like their odds even more than I liked the odds of the banks and I'll promise you in advance that in neither case will we have held the bad decision makers accountable.

What's coming is coming and the damages and court orders will be the justification for any or all of it.

I kinda agree. I felt they both were maxed ten years ago and they're still expanding. Consolidation is the name of the game unfortunately. In the long term, this will destroy football as an entity. The people in power are too blinded by gwap to see 50 years in the future.

It's spectacle to cover up the downsizing of higher education as a state by state budget line as AI means fewer mid-level management positions and more opportunities for earnest research. It also means a streamlining of what is taught and how it is taught which is a form of corporate control. Think of it as the CBE approach to higher ed.

The oldest biggest brand name schools will get the profile exposure through sports and most of those campuses are building at double enrollment capacity for student housing both on and off campus. It's been going on for over a decade already but is ramping up for the passing of Boomers. The spectacle of college football with the biggest brands in the game and then basketball will be a major sign to the public that all is well even when it is undergoing profound changes. Those changes though were going to happen with the rise of AI and dwindling in the workforce, and stress on the treasury all resulting from the massive die off of the global baby boom following WWII. It's hitting Europe, Asia, the Americas and with it an economic downturn will coincide, but then there will be downward stress on commodities, housing, etc. and that will offset it as things become more affordable again. I expect my grandchildren to have more opportunities rather than less, provided we stand together as a nation through the change. And keeping our icons like college and professional sports and basic community life help make that possible.

It's not to be feared, but managed. The world following WWII was wide open with opportunities. The trick this time is to do it without the big damn war!
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2024 11:40 PM by JRsec.)
07-04-2024 11:36 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #142
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 09:56 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 09:03 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  If only Clemson and Florida St leave, presumably for the SEC, what does the SEC (ACC?) do?

I would guess only expand to 16/17 with South Florida. Maintains double-down in the State of Florida and AAU.

I was thinking they'd probably stay at 15/16, but had a thought.

I seen earlier today that FBSchedules tweeted yesterday about how they think the SEC is making room on their schedule for 9 conference games starting in 2026 due to SEC canceling H&H matchups and others rumored to be canceled. Others had speculated that maybe the SEC and ESPN agree to 9 conference games with the addition of Clemson and Florida St., and the SEC probably does a flex protect schedule like the B1G to guarantee up to 3 protected annual rivals, but (persumably unlike the B1G) also guarantee playing secondary rivals and regional opponents 3x in 5 years (everyone else H&H in 5 years).

If that were to happen and there was no further SEC expansion (at least in the short term), I wonder if ESPN agrees to keep the ACC's contract until 2036 if the ACC agrees to 9 conference games. If that were the case, the ACC would need a 16th football school (if not the case, stay at 15/16), which I think the ACC and ESPN have 1 pro-rata addition left so I'm guessing it would happen similar or close to (not as much) the Cal and Stanford deal joining at a reduced media payout for 7-9 years with ESPN having a strong say who gets added. I would guess that 1 addition would come down to Oregon St., USF, and UCONN. I personally think it should go to Oregon St., but I can definitely see USF or UCONN.

Good catch - I did mean ACC.

If I were in charge of the ACC, and it may be a good thing I'm not, if I lost Clemson and South Florida, I'd get to 20/21. Why? I'm not so sure further defections aren't imminent and I want to avoid dropping below 15 members.

New Members: Connecticut, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Washington St

Why?

-Connecticut: If North Carolina and/or Duke ever leave, the basketball prowess will need to be maintained and the Huskies definitely help. Former power school.
- Oregon St / Washington St: The duo helps solidify the Western flank and are still effectively power schools which helps the perception of expansion.
- South Florida: Obvious replacement of Florida St. AAU.
- San Diego St: Further helps solidify the West. Keeps the XII out of California.

Other options: Memphis and Tulane. These schools may end up in the ACC or XII someday. Both offer solid markets with growing football.

ACC
Atlantic: Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, Wake Forest
Coastal: Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Metro: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, SMU, South Florida
Pacific: California, Oregon St, San Diego St, Stanford, Washington St
Non-Football: Notre Dame
07-04-2024 11:45 PM
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ClairtonPanther Offline
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Post: #143
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 11:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:23 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:44 PM)Acres Wrote:  Here’s an outrageous take. I’d say the SEC and BIG are maxed out. I think in 2030s, instead of further expansion , these conferences will contract.
Current spending level are unsustainable. Reaching a point of diminishing returns.

I think it starts with the BIG, where networks balk at their post pandemic free spending posture. A network or two will back out in 2030 in my opinion . At which point will Oregon and Washington really receive full shares or are they better off reconstituting a west coast conference, with USC and UCLA, without previous conference anchors.

The SEC is maxed out. All valuable pieces outside of ND, Florida State, Clemson are in it. How else would espn squeeze value out of it other breaking it up, discarding the chaff.

It’s inevitable, called it here first.

What is inevitable on this forum every time we have a realignment cycle is some form of piss ant schadenfreude! Every time we hear the same predictions of doom and gloom for the SEC and Big 10. All I have to say about this is that if it happens it's curtains for everyone else too. This country has a habit of not letting institutions which screw up fail. Remember the banking crisis? And the public hated big banks. Well, the public loves their big schools. I like their odds even more than I liked the odds of the banks and I'll promise you in advance that in neither case will we have held the bad decision makers accountable.

What's coming is coming and the damages and court orders will be the justification for any or all of it.

I kinda agree. I felt they both were maxed ten years ago and they're still expanding. Consolidation is the name of the game unfortunately. In the long term, this will destroy football as an entity. The people in power are too blinded by gwap to see 50 years in the future.

It's spectacle to cover up the downsizing of higher education as a state by state budget line as AI means fewer mid-level management positions and more opportunities for earnest research. It also means a streamlining of what is taught and how it is taught which is a form of corporate control. Think of it as the CBE approach to higher ed.

The oldest biggest brand name schools will get the profile exposure through sports and most of those campuses are building at double enrollment capacity for student housing both on and off campus. It's been going on for over a decade already but is ramping up for the passing of Boomers. The spectacle of college football with the biggest brands in the game and then basketball will be a major sign to the public that all is well even when it is undergoing profound changes. Those changes though were going to happen with the rise of AI and dwindling in the workforce, and stress on the treasury all resulting from the massive die off of the global baby boom following WWII. It's hitting Europe, Asia, the Americas and with it an economic downturn will coincide, but then there will be downward stress on commodities, housing, etc. and that will offset it as things become more affordable again. I expect my grandchildren to have more opportunities rather than less, provided we stand together as a nation through the change. And keeping our icons like college and professional sports and basic community life help make that possible.

It's not to be feared, but managed. The world following WWII was wide open with opportunities. The trick this time is to do it without the big damn war!

It's short term gain that's going to kill them all in long term. Sports as a whole is already losing popularity. Kids would rather play video games and adults would rather go on hikes. The networks are simply overreacting to the market changes, which will only hurt them in the long-term.
07-04-2024 11:49 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #144
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 11:49 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:23 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:44 PM)Acres Wrote:  Here’s an outrageous take. I’d say the SEC and BIG are maxed out. I think in 2030s, instead of further expansion , these conferences will contract.
Current spending level are unsustainable. Reaching a point of diminishing returns.

I think it starts with the BIG, where networks balk at their post pandemic free spending posture. A network or two will back out in 2030 in my opinion . At which point will Oregon and Washington really receive full shares or are they better off reconstituting a west coast conference, with USC and UCLA, without previous conference anchors.

The SEC is maxed out. All valuable pieces outside of ND, Florida State, Clemson are in it. How else would espn squeeze value out of it other breaking it up, discarding the chaff.

It’s inevitable, called it here first.

What is inevitable on this forum every time we have a realignment cycle is some form of piss ant schadenfreude! Every time we hear the same predictions of doom and gloom for the SEC and Big 10. All I have to say about this is that if it happens it's curtains for everyone else too. This country has a habit of not letting institutions which screw up fail. Remember the banking crisis? And the public hated big banks. Well, the public loves their big schools. I like their odds even more than I liked the odds of the banks and I'll promise you in advance that in neither case will we have held the bad decision makers accountable.

What's coming is coming and the damages and court orders will be the justification for any or all of it.

I kinda agree. I felt they both were maxed ten years ago and they're still expanding. Consolidation is the name of the game unfortunately. In the long term, this will destroy football as an entity. The people in power are too blinded by gwap to see 50 years in the future.

It's spectacle to cover up the downsizing of higher education as a state by state budget line as AI means fewer mid-level management positions and more opportunities for earnest research. It also means a streamlining of what is taught and how it is taught which is a form of corporate control. Think of it as the CBE approach to higher ed.

The oldest biggest brand name schools will get the profile exposure through sports and most of those campuses are building at double enrollment capacity for student housing both on and off campus. It's been going on for over a decade already but is ramping up for the passing of Boomers. The spectacle of college football with the biggest brands in the game and then basketball will be a major sign to the public that all is well even when it is undergoing profound changes. Those changes though were going to happen with the rise of AI and dwindling in the workforce, and stress on the treasury all resulting from the massive die off of the global baby boom following WWII. It's hitting Europe, Asia, the Americas and with it an economic downturn will coincide, but then there will be downward stress on commodities, housing, etc. and that will offset it as things become more affordable again. I expect my grandchildren to have more opportunities rather than less, provided we stand together as a nation through the change. And keeping our icons like college and professional sports and basic community life help make that possible.

It's not to be feared, but managed. The world following WWII was wide open with opportunities. The trick this time is to do it without the big damn war!

It's short term gain that's going to kill them all in long term. Sports as a whole is already losing popularity. Kids would rather play video games and adults would rather go on hikes. The networks are simply overreacting to the market changes, which will only hurt them in the long-term.

Well short term they are squeezing the hell out of the goose to extract more golden eggs. Long term the schools are preparing for post 2035. Two different agendas. The spectacle will survive another 40 years. Large distractions are essential to the health of any society, just ask Ceasar.
07-04-2024 11:56 PM
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ClairtonPanther Offline
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Post: #145
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 11:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:49 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:23 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What is inevitable on this forum every time we have a realignment cycle is some form of piss ant schadenfreude! Every time we hear the same predictions of doom and gloom for the SEC and Big 10. All I have to say about this is that if it happens it's curtains for everyone else too. This country has a habit of not letting institutions which screw up fail. Remember the banking crisis? And the public hated big banks. Well, the public loves their big schools. I like their odds even more than I liked the odds of the banks and I'll promise you in advance that in neither case will we have held the bad decision makers accountable.

What's coming is coming and the damages and court orders will be the justification for any or all of it.

I kinda agree. I felt they both were maxed ten years ago and they're still expanding. Consolidation is the name of the game unfortunately. In the long term, this will destroy football as an entity. The people in power are too blinded by gwap to see 50 years in the future.

It's spectacle to cover up the downsizing of higher education as a state by state budget line as AI means fewer mid-level management positions and more opportunities for earnest research. It also means a streamlining of what is taught and how it is taught which is a form of corporate control. Think of it as the CBE approach to higher ed.

The oldest biggest brand name schools will get the profile exposure through sports and most of those campuses are building at double enrollment capacity for student housing both on and off campus. It's been going on for over a decade already but is ramping up for the passing of Boomers. The spectacle of college football with the biggest brands in the game and then basketball will be a major sign to the public that all is well even when it is undergoing profound changes. Those changes though were going to happen with the rise of AI and dwindling in the workforce, and stress on the treasury all resulting from the massive die off of the global baby boom following WWII. It's hitting Europe, Asia, the Americas and with it an economic downturn will coincide, but then there will be downward stress on commodities, housing, etc. and that will offset it as things become more affordable again. I expect my grandchildren to have more opportunities rather than less, provided we stand together as a nation through the change. And keeping our icons like college and professional sports and basic community life help make that possible.

It's not to be feared, but managed. The world following WWII was wide open with opportunities. The trick this time is to do it without the big damn war!

It's short term gain that's going to kill them all in long term. Sports as a whole is already losing popularity. Kids would rather play video games and adults would rather go on hikes. The networks are simply overreacting to the market changes, which will only hurt them in the long-term.

Well short term they are squeezing the hell out of the goose to extract more golden eggs. Long term the schools are preparing for post 2035. Two different agendas. The spectacle will survive another 40 years. Large distractions are essential to the health of any society, just ask Ceasar.

Large distractions are essential, just that college sports will no longer be that distraction post 2035. Other distractions will fill that void. We only got 87545 channels via streaming and other outlets to fill the void.
07-05-2024 12:02 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #146
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 07:32 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 07:25 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 07:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 06:12 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 03:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Objects in motion tend to remain in motion until acted upon by some outside force. Well, X, nobody seems to be taking the role of the outside force. Indeed, the opposite is true. Clemson and FSU are trying to create more motion, revenue disparity is perpetuating the motion, the playoff expansion was designed for larger conferences. The SCOTUS ruling and House compromise are only going to encourage continued motion. And I see nothing acting to prevent further motion. Denial is not an outside force. It has been however a contributing factor in both the circumstances which led to the destruction of the PAC 12, and which for years limited the ability of the ACC to respond appropriately without having first to consider personal deals and Raycom and then in agreeing upon how, and with whom, to expand.

Florida State and Clemson are not the antagonists here. They are merely proactive for themselves.

The antagonist depends on the POV of the storyteller.

Clemson and FSU definitely inflate their own value. Especially for ESPN. FSU works for FOX, as KWarren alluded to.

BTW, the relationship with Raycom was fruitful and existed for many years before the “controversy”. People are just lazy in their research and it grows tiring trying to combat the outright lies on this board.

Apologetics much? Raycom and Swofford's son held up progress toward an ACCN and failure to add that which would have absolutely enhanced the markets for one was another. There is a reason ESPN paid you all 2 million a year not to have an ACCN and it had nothing to do with its profitability.

Raycom and Swofford’s son prevented the ACC-PAC network from happening. Which will ultimately kill two conferences.

[Image: emot_stoopsfaceshake.gif]

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07-05-2024 07:04 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #147
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 07:34 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 07:25 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 07:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Apologetics much? Raycom and Swofford's son held up progress toward an ACCN and failure to add that which would have absolutely enhanced the markets for one was another. There is a reason ESPN paid you all 2 million a year not to have an ACCN and it had nothing to do with its profitability.

Raycom and Swofford’s son prevented the ACC-PAC network from happening. Which will ultimately kill two conferences.

(07-04-2024 07:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  And ESPN flat out said the ACC would make more if Swofford didn't insist on them sending some inventory to Raycom when the deal was signed.

If Swofford's son and wife weren't connected to Raycom it could be excused. But with the conflict of interest, it was not.

We're seeing this arrangement brought up in schools' legal complaints against the ACC. Under contract law, it has potential to nullify any statute of limitations that might otherwise apply. More generally, it establishes mismanagement: a conference habit of placing other interests before those of member schools.

Weird that FSU and the entire conference agreed to “other’s interests” and “mismanagement”.
07-05-2024 07:09 AM
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Gitanole Offline
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Post: #148
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 10:03 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  The league is on borrowed time, whether it's two years or 10 years. Pitt will come out fine nonetheless and all of this trash

These are all fine universities. Most were here before the conferences and the networks existed. All can outlast them.
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2024 07:40 AM by Gitanole.)
07-05-2024 07:10 AM
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Gitanole Offline
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Post: #149
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 10:44 PM)Acres Wrote:  Here’s an outrageous take. I’d say the SEC and BIG are maxed out. I think in 2030s, instead of further expansion , these conferences will contract.
Current spending level are unsustainable. Reaching a point of diminishing returns.

I think it starts with the BIG, where networks balk at their post pandemic free spending posture. A network or two will back out in 2030 in my opinion . At which point will Oregon and Washington really receive full shares or are they better off reconstituting a west coast conference, with USC and UCLA, without previous conference anchors.

The SEC is maxed out. All valuable pieces outside of ND, Florida State, Clemson are in it. How else would espn squeeze value out of it other breaking it up, discarding the chaff.

It’s inevitable, called it here first.

I expect the two will merge into a quasi-NFL entity. 'Conference' will come to mean more of what it does there. We could see a bit of 'squeezing', as you put it, at that point. I wouldn't expect much, though.

The quasi-NFL consolidation could make it easier to accommodate individual schools' interests. Your school could be in this Big League for all sports, but still play in differently drawn divisions for, say, football and baseball.
07-05-2024 07:27 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #150
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.


Independence isn't just "part of ND's athletic identity". It is the centerpiece of it.

The deep concern for the future of ND athletics is very touching.

Big Ten people don't want ND to join so that it helps ND. Lets drop that act right now.

ND will be fine. People have been underestimating ND in the conference realignment wars for over thirty years now.

ND is not going to budge. Big Ten fans should be used to that by now.
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2024 07:59 AM by TerryD.)
07-05-2024 07:36 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #151
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 02:53 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.

As Voltaire would say:

The Holy Roman Empire was in no way holy, nor Roman, nor an empire

It's hard to blame ND for being leery of the B1G. PSU is a perfect fit for a group of large and academically elite public schools, when they joined the B1G is made sense. However, ND is a perfect fit for the BE, if they all had elite football teams, which...they don't. The ACC is, by far, the best P4 match for ND institutionally. It's not unreasonable for the Irish to have concerns about their fit in either of the P2. As long as money rather than access is the driving force in Realignment, I predict that ND will maintain a significant level of football independence.

Actually, the Holy Roman Empire was relevant for hundreds of years. ND should be so lucky.

ND is a small private, Catholic school of about 8,500 undergrad students.

It has nothing at all in common with huge, public land grant Big Ten schools of 30,000 undergrads or more.

Nothing, except perhaps geography. I thought that geography was a thing of the past in conference realignment?

ND just doesn't fit the Big Ten. Actually, ND football is a bad fit for every conference.

ND dislikes and especially distrusts the Big Ten based upon both history and recent events, like stabbing the Pac-12 in the back or conning the ACC with the "Alliance" bullshite.

You will have a hard time convincing most ND people that the Big Ten doesn't hold a long standing anti-ND animus and won't try to minimize and harm ND's program again if they get their hands on it.

Both PSU (as you cite) and Nebraska are cautionary tales regarding ND joining the Big Ten.

Even after 33 years, Penn State does not seem to be accepted by the long standing Big Ten schools and instead seems a bit of an outlier.

Nebraska complains often and loudly about it, too. Neither seems to have been properly assimilated into the collective.

ND will never be warmly welcomed and accepted by the Big Ten schools and fans, either.

(Oh, they will hungrily scarf up the excess TV value of ND, sure. But, after that.........)

Nor will ND fans ever be Big Ten fans or embrace the other Big Ten schools or fans as "conference brethren".

History matters. Mutual animus is a real thing. Too much water under that bridge over 125 years.

I know that money drives conference realignment but does the Big Ten really want a school that dislikes it, distrusts it, doesn't want to be part of it and has done everything it can to avoid joining the Big Ten for 34 years and counting ?

ND football is a round peg trying to be pounded by others into a square hole.
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2024 08:35 AM by TerryD.)
07-05-2024 08:12 AM
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Post: #152
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-05-2024 08:12 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 02:53 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.

As Voltaire would say:

The Holy Roman Empire was in no way holy, nor Roman, nor an empire

It's hard to blame ND for being leery of the B1G. PSU is a perfect fit for a group of large and academically elite public schools, when they joined the B1G is made sense. However, ND is a perfect fit for the BE, if they all had elite football teams, which...they don't. The ACC is, by far, the best P4 match for ND institutionally. It's not unreasonable for the Irish to have concerns about their fit in either of the P2. As long as money rather than access is the driving force in Realignment, I predict that ND will maintain a significant level of football independence.

Actually, the Holy Roman Empire was relevant for hundreds of years. ND should be so lucky.

ND is a small private, Catholic school of about 8,500 undergrad students.

It has nothing at all in common with huge, public land grant Big Ten schools of 30,000 undergrads or more.

Nothing, except perhaps geography. I thought that geography was a thing of the past in conference realignment?

ND just doesn't fit the Big Ten. Actually, ND football is a bad fit for every conference.

ND dislikes and especially distrusts the Big Ten based upon both history and recent events, like stabbing the Pac-12 in the back or conning the ACC with the "Alliance" bullshite.

You will have a hard time convincing most ND people that the Big Ten doesn't hold a long standing anti-ND animus and won't try to minimize and harm ND's program again if they get their hands on it.

Both PSU (as you cite) and Nebraska are cautionary tales regarding ND joining the Big Ten.

Even after 33 years, Penn State does not seem to be accepted by the long standing Big Ten schools and instead seems a bit of an outlier.

Nebraska complains often and loudly about it, too. Neither seems to have been properly assimilated into the collective.

ND will never be warmly welcomed and accepted by the Big Ten schools and fans, either.

(Oh, they will hungrily scarf up the excess TV value of ND, sure. But, after that.........)

Nor will ND fans ever be Big Ten fans or embrace the other Big Ten schools or fans as "conference brethren".

History matters. Mutual animus is a real thing. Too much water under that bridge over 125 years.

I know that money drives conference realignment but does the Big Ten really want a school that dislikes it, distrusts it, doesn't want to be part of it and has done everything it can to avoid joining the Big Ten for 34 years and counting ?

ND football is a round peg trying to be pounded by others into a square hole.

Notre Dame has a wonderful situation in the ACC. When FSU and CU leave, ND, with their superior leadership, are replacing the Tobacco Road painful managing and decision making. UNC, UVA, Duke, etc., will stay and adjust to an improved order.

FSU & CU won’t fit the ACC’s new direction.
07-05-2024 10:23 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #153
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-05-2024 10:23 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(07-05-2024 08:12 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 02:53 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.

As Voltaire would say:

The Holy Roman Empire was in no way holy, nor Roman, nor an empire

It's hard to blame ND for being leery of the B1G. PSU is a perfect fit for a group of large and academically elite public schools, when they joined the B1G is made sense. However, ND is a perfect fit for the BE, if they all had elite football teams, which...they don't. The ACC is, by far, the best P4 match for ND institutionally. It's not unreasonable for the Irish to have concerns about their fit in either of the P2. As long as money rather than access is the driving force in Realignment, I predict that ND will maintain a significant level of football independence.

Actually, the Holy Roman Empire was relevant for hundreds of years. ND should be so lucky.

ND is a small private, Catholic school of about 8,500 undergrad students.

It has nothing at all in common with huge, public land grant Big Ten schools of 30,000 undergrads or more.

Nothing, except perhaps geography. I thought that geography was a thing of the past in conference realignment?

ND just doesn't fit the Big Ten. Actually, ND football is a bad fit for every conference.

ND dislikes and especially distrusts the Big Ten based upon both history and recent events, like stabbing the Pac-12 in the back or conning the ACC with the "Alliance" bullshite.

You will have a hard time convincing most ND people that the Big Ten doesn't hold a long standing anti-ND animus and won't try to minimize and harm ND's program again if they get their hands on it.

Both PSU (as you cite) and Nebraska are cautionary tales regarding ND joining the Big Ten.

Even after 33 years, Penn State does not seem to be accepted by the long standing Big Ten schools and instead seems a bit of an outlier.

Nebraska complains often and loudly about it, too. Neither seems to have been properly assimilated into the collective.

ND will never be warmly welcomed and accepted by the Big Ten schools and fans, either.

(Oh, they will hungrily scarf up the excess TV value of ND, sure. But, after that.........)

Nor will ND fans ever be Big Ten fans or embrace the other Big Ten schools or fans as "conference brethren".

History matters. Mutual animus is a real thing. Too much water under that bridge over 125 years.

I know that money drives conference realignment but does the Big Ten really want a school that dislikes it, distrusts it, doesn't want to be part of it and has done everything it can to avoid joining the Big Ten for 34 years and counting ?

ND football is a round peg trying to be pounded by others into a square hole.

Notre Dame has a wonderful situation in the ACC. When FSU and CU leave, ND, with their superior leadership, are replacing the Tobacco Road painful managing and decision making. UNC, UVA, Duke, etc., will stay and adjust to an improved order.

FSU & CU won’t fit the ACC’s new direction.


FSU and Clemson will be in a P2 conference very soon. That is where they want to be and should be in conference realignment.

Self determination is the goal. Every school should be able to try to be where and what it wants to be.
07-05-2024 10:31 AM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #154
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-05-2024 12:02 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:49 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:23 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  I kinda agree. I felt they both were maxed ten years ago and they're still expanding. Consolidation is the name of the game unfortunately. In the long term, this will destroy football as an entity. The people in power are too blinded by gwap to see 50 years in the future.

It's spectacle to cover up the downsizing of higher education as a state by state budget line as AI means fewer mid-level management positions and more opportunities for earnest research. It also means a streamlining of what is taught and how it is taught which is a form of corporate control. Think of it as the CBE approach to higher ed.

The oldest biggest brand name schools will get the profile exposure through sports and most of those campuses are building at double enrollment capacity for student housing both on and off campus. It's been going on for over a decade already but is ramping up for the passing of Boomers. The spectacle of college football with the biggest brands in the game and then basketball will be a major sign to the public that all is well even when it is undergoing profound changes. Those changes though were going to happen with the rise of AI and dwindling in the workforce, and stress on the treasury all resulting from the massive die off of the global baby boom following WWII. It's hitting Europe, Asia, the Americas and with it an economic downturn will coincide, but then there will be downward stress on commodities, housing, etc. and that will offset it as things become more affordable again. I expect my grandchildren to have more opportunities rather than less, provided we stand together as a nation through the change. And keeping our icons like college and professional sports and basic community life help make that possible.

It's not to be feared, but managed. The world following WWII was wide open with opportunities. The trick this time is to do it without the big damn war!

It's short term gain that's going to kill them all in long term. Sports as a whole is already losing popularity. Kids would rather play video games and adults would rather go on hikes. The networks are simply overreacting to the market changes, which will only hurt them in the long-term.

Well short term they are squeezing the hell out of the goose to extract more golden eggs. Long term the schools are preparing for post 2035. Two different agendas. The spectacle will survive another 40 years. Large distractions are essential to the health of any society, just ask Ceasar.

Large distractions are essential, just that college sports will no longer be that distraction post 2035. Other distractions will fill that void. We only got 87545 channels via streaming and other outlets to fill the void.

You guys act like it has to be one or the other. It will be both. Think about how much more fractured the media landscape is today than it was 30 years ago, 20 years ago, heck even 10 years ago. Projecting another 10+ years into the future is best left to the Oracle. We can look at current numbers and trends and project a few years ahead, usually, though even that feels like a fool's errand in the days of House, Alston, unlimited NIL and unlimited transfers.

I, for one, will enjoy the ride as there is a ride to enjoy, and I won't try to assign cause and effect to chaotic events.
07-05-2024 12:05 PM
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Blust3 Offline
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Post: #155
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-05-2024 10:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-05-2024 10:23 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(07-05-2024 08:12 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 02:53 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.

As Voltaire would say:

The Holy Roman Empire was in no way holy, nor Roman, nor an empire

It's hard to blame ND for being leery of the B1G. PSU is a perfect fit for a group of large and academically elite public schools, when they joined the B1G is made sense. However, ND is a perfect fit for the BE, if they all had elite football teams, which...they don't. The ACC is, by far, the best P4 match for ND institutionally. It's not unreasonable for the Irish to have concerns about their fit in either of the P2. As long as money rather than access is the driving force in Realignment, I predict that ND will maintain a significant level of football independence.

Actually, the Holy Roman Empire was relevant for hundreds of years. ND should be so lucky.

ND is a small private, Catholic school of about 8,500 undergrad students.

It has nothing at all in common with huge, public land grant Big Ten schools of 30,000 undergrads or more.

Nothing, except perhaps geography. I thought that geography was a thing of the past in conference realignment?

ND just doesn't fit the Big Ten. Actually, ND football is a bad fit for every conference.

ND dislikes and especially distrusts the Big Ten based upon both history and recent events, like stabbing the Pac-12 in the back or conning the ACC with the "Alliance" bullshite.

You will have a hard time convincing most ND people that the Big Ten doesn't hold a long standing anti-ND animus and won't try to minimize and harm ND's program again if they get their hands on it.

Both PSU (as you cite) and Nebraska are cautionary tales regarding ND joining the Big Ten.

Even after 33 years, Penn State does not seem to be accepted by the long standing Big Ten schools and instead seems a bit of an outlier.

Nebraska complains often and loudly about it, too. Neither seems to have been properly assimilated into the collective.

ND will never be warmly welcomed and accepted by the Big Ten schools and fans, either.

(Oh, they will hungrily scarf up the excess TV value of ND, sure. But, after that.........)

Nor will ND fans ever be Big Ten fans or embrace the other Big Ten schools or fans as "conference brethren".

History matters. Mutual animus is a real thing. Too much water under that bridge over 125 years.

I know that money drives conference realignment but does the Big Ten really want a school that dislikes it, distrusts it, doesn't want to be part of it and has done everything it can to avoid joining the Big Ten for 34 years and counting ?

ND football is a round peg trying to be pounded by others into a square hole.

Notre Dame has a wonderful situation in the ACC. When FSU and CU leave, ND, with their superior leadership, are replacing the Tobacco Road painful managing and decision making. UNC, UVA, Duke, etc., will stay and adjust to an improved order.

FSU & CU won’t fit the ACC’s new direction.


FSU and Clemson will be in a P2 conference very soon. That is where they want to be and should be in conference realignment.

Self determination is the goal. Every school should be able to try to be where and what it wants to be.

I don't think Clemson wants to leave ACC. They just negotiate to have a better pay. That slight advantage will make them stay the ACC powerhouse for years to come. That is a smart move compared to FSU which will be in the bottom half of its new conference.

I think whatever adding FSU will add another school other than ACC. Most likely Kansas or UConn. I mean B1G would add FSU and UConn ( to quickly fix B1G's poor performance in NCAA tournament). And SEC would add FSU and Kansas.
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2024 12:29 PM by Blust3.)
07-05-2024 12:24 PM
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Post: #156
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 10:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:44 PM)Acres Wrote:  Here’s an outrageous take. I’d say the SEC and BIG are maxed out. I think in 2030s, instead of further expansion , these conferences will contract.
Current spending level are unsustainable. Reaching a point of diminishing returns.

I think it starts with the BIG, where networks balk at their post pandemic free spending posture. A network or two will back out in 2030 in my opinion . At which point will Oregon and Washington really receive full shares or are they better off reconstituting a west coast conference, with USC and UCLA, without previous conference anchors.

The SEC is maxed out. All valuable pieces outside of ND, Florida State, Clemson are in it. How else would espn squeeze value out of it other breaking it up, discarding the chaff.

It’s inevitable, called it here first.

What is inevitable on this forum every time we have a realignment cycle is some form of piss ant schadenfreude! Every time we hear the same predictions of doom and gloom for the SEC and Big 10. All I have to say about this is that if it happens it's curtains for everyone else too. This country has a habit of not letting institutions which screw up fail. Remember the banking crisis? And the public hated big banks. Well, the public loves their big schools. I like their odds even more than I liked the odds of the banks and I'll promise you in advance that in neither case will we have held the bad decision makers accountable.

What's coming is coming and the damages and court orders will be the justification for any or all of it.

Am I the only one who has noticed that MORE TV outlets are getting into sports, specifically speaking of those channels you can watch without a subscription (CW, Ion) as well as those clinging to the model of available as part of a bigger subscription such as TNT are entering college sports.

Big East is getting more OTA broadcasts thanks to NBC + Fox.

I doubt you or I live long enough to see the day when people wanting to make money via advertising and subscriptions say yah know sports just isn't the way.

Pure rumor mill material but have heard that a chain owner of TV stations has talked to ESPN about a game of the week for one or more G5 leagues to run on their sub channels to improve viewer awareness as well as to leverage local cable to carry those channels.

I'm going to disagree with Aces in that neither B1G nor $EC is maxed out just yet. I think there are rather obviously 2-6 schools in the ACC who hold value that the P2 can make use of.

The missing piece right now isn't finding more and more revenue, it's finding away to not get into crazy bidding wars for talent that bleed off that revenue.
07-05-2024 06:06 PM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #157
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-04-2024 11:23 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 10:44 PM)Acres Wrote:  Here’s an outrageous take. I’d say the SEC and BIG are maxed out. I think in 2030s, instead of further expansion , these conferences will contract.
Current spending level are unsustainable. Reaching a point of diminishing returns.

I think it starts with the BIG, where networks balk at their post pandemic free spending posture. A network or two will back out in 2030 in my opinion . At which point will Oregon and Washington really receive full shares or are they better off reconstituting a west coast conference, with USC and UCLA, without previous conference anchors.

The SEC is maxed out. All valuable pieces outside of ND, Florida State, Clemson are in it. How else would espn squeeze value out of it other breaking it up, discarding the chaff.

It’s inevitable, called it here first.

What is inevitable on this forum every time we have a realignment cycle is some form of piss ant schadenfreude! Every time we hear the same predictions of doom and gloom for the SEC and Big 10. All I have to say about this is that if it happens it's curtains for everyone else too. This country has a habit of not letting institutions which screw up fail. Remember the banking crisis? And the public hated big banks. Well, the public loves their big schools. I like their odds even more than I liked the odds of the banks and I'll promise you in advance that in neither case will we have held the bad decision makers accountable.

What's coming is coming and the damages and court orders will be the justification for any or all of it.

I kinda agree. I felt they both were maxed ten years ago and they're still expanding. Consolidation is the name of the game unfortunately. In the long term, this will destroy football as an entity. The people in power are too blinded by gwap to see 50 years in the future.

In baseball, soccer, and hockey and lesser degree basketball people will go watch teams not at the elite level.

Is the future going to be frustrating for the Pac-12 and ACC schools and Big XII schools left out of the P2? Yeah, maybe it hurts them but if your gate was based on USC or Texas or Clemson visiting, you were vulnerable. The game is first and foremost selling tickets, getting donations, and selling sponsors who want those in-stadium and in-arena exposures.

The rest of FBS? The rest of Division I? They will still get some TV money, they will still have people buying tickets and donating and many will be pulling more than half of operating revenue from the school.

They will laugh at the kid who demands $100,000 to go play football in Muncie because the school probably won't have it to pay and the kid won't have an offer from anyone willing to give more than room/board/books/tuition and maybe a $1000 NIL. If the kid's not an idiot he takes the offer and tries to become good enough to get an offer from West Virginia and Pitt and then hope he does well enough to get an offer from Michigan State and Mississippi State after that.

Coaches will go from touting we got five guys playing in the NFL now to hey we got 20 guys in the ACC and Big XII now and 11 in the P2.

I mean look at how soccer operates and how minor leagues did in baseball until the system collapsed after everyone bought a TV and an air conditioner. You sign prospects and sell them as they develop and you take the big guys roster excess "on loan" or when they get cut.

Will it look different? Yeah but the insanity might actually end because the go up realignment and got left behind realignment madness will end.
07-05-2024 06:29 PM
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ClairtonPanther Offline
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Post: #158
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-05-2024 12:05 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(07-05-2024 12:02 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:49 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 11:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It's spectacle to cover up the downsizing of higher education as a state by state budget line as AI means fewer mid-level management positions and more opportunities for earnest research. It also means a streamlining of what is taught and how it is taught which is a form of corporate control. Think of it as the CBE approach to higher ed.

The oldest biggest brand name schools will get the profile exposure through sports and most of those campuses are building at double enrollment capacity for student housing both on and off campus. It's been going on for over a decade already but is ramping up for the passing of Boomers. The spectacle of college football with the biggest brands in the game and then basketball will be a major sign to the public that all is well even when it is undergoing profound changes. Those changes though were going to happen with the rise of AI and dwindling in the workforce, and stress on the treasury all resulting from the massive die off of the global baby boom following WWII. It's hitting Europe, Asia, the Americas and with it an economic downturn will coincide, but then there will be downward stress on commodities, housing, etc. and that will offset it as things become more affordable again. I expect my grandchildren to have more opportunities rather than less, provided we stand together as a nation through the change. And keeping our icons like college and professional sports and basic community life help make that possible.

It's not to be feared, but managed. The world following WWII was wide open with opportunities. The trick this time is to do it without the big damn war!

It's short term gain that's going to kill them all in long term. Sports as a whole is already losing popularity. Kids would rather play video games and adults would rather go on hikes. The networks are simply overreacting to the market changes, which will only hurt them in the long-term.

Well short term they are squeezing the hell out of the goose to extract more golden eggs. Long term the schools are preparing for post 2035. Two different agendas. The spectacle will survive another 40 years. Large distractions are essential to the health of any society, just ask Ceasar.

Large distractions are essential, just that college sports will no longer be that distraction post 2035. Other distractions will fill that void. We only got 87545 channels via streaming and other outlets to fill the void.

You guys act like it has to be one or the other. It will be both. Think about how much more fractured the media landscape is today than it was 30 years ago, 20 years ago, heck even 10 years ago. Projecting another 10+ years into the future is best left to the Oracle. We can look at current numbers and trends and project a few years ahead, usually, though even that feels like a fool's errand in the days of House, Alston, unlimited NIL and unlimited transfers.

I, for one, will enjoy the ride as there is a ride to enjoy, and I won't try to assign cause and effect to chaotic events.

It's more than just the way sports are broadcasted, whether it's the Networks, Cable or Streaming... It has everything to do with demographics. Sports will always be relevant, just not as prevalent.
07-05-2024 06:47 PM
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Post: #159
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
Our best hope for some return to regionality would be a P1. The SEC and Big 10 merge administratively, expand, but create 3 conferences-Big 10, SEC and the core of the Pac 16 proposal.
Each conference has 5 western additions. The Big 10 has 13 in the east and the SEC 11, 13 if you add FSU and Clemson. So you create 3 conferences of 14-16 teams each. With 14 it looks like:
Big 10-Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan St., Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Maryland, Rutgers + Notre Dame.
SEC-LSU, Ole Miss, Miss. St., Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida + Florida St., Clemson and North Carolina.
New West-USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas + Kansas, Colorado, Arizona St., and Stanford.

That leaves a Big 12 with 13-BYU, Utah, Arizona, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Iowa St., Cincinnati, WVU and UCF and the ACC with 13-Cal, SMU, Miami, Georgia Tech, NCSU, Duke, Wake Forest, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pitt and Syracuse. They probably form an M1 with 2 conferences and fill in with UConn and USF, maybe moving Cal and SMU west and UCF east.

If you go to 16X3 then UVA, Miami, VT, NCSU, Arizona, and Cal are the most likely lucky invitees.
07-06-2024 02:37 PM
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Post: #160
RE: Why the ACC May or May Not Be On Borrowed Time
(07-05-2024 08:12 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 02:53 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(07-04-2024 08:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA

What do those programs have in common? They were all programs whose identity was built on being the alpha dogs of their regional conferences and they all gave up that identity for the security and financial windfall of mega conference membership.

Just because the Irish have independence as part of their athletic identity doesn’t mean it will always be so. They already gave up a big chunk of that independence when men’s basketball joined the BE almost 30 years ago. Some posters can’t seem to get it through their heads that ND indeed has a scheduling problem if the ACC gets raided in the near future—they’ll be trapped with 5 2nd rate ACC opponents and 3 3rd rate G5 opponents annually, leaving them just 4 opportunities to schedule high profile P2 games. Say what you want, but your top Big 10 and SEC programs are going to have much stronger resumes. I love Purdue and Michigan St as much as any Big 10 fan but no one is looking at those games and saying “WOW! ND really challenged themselves with that schedule!” Your Big Ten and SEC champs will have had to go through 3-4 top notch programs to get where they are. ND can’t build schedules that compare.

National scheduling, urban centers, and playing elite academic institutions are also part of the ND identity and the Big 10 offers that in spades. If ND doesn’t change with the times, they’ll be as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.

As Voltaire would say:

The Holy Roman Empire was in no way holy, nor Roman, nor an empire

It's hard to blame ND for being leery of the B1G. PSU is a perfect fit for a group of large and academically elite public schools, when they joined the B1G is made sense. However, ND is a perfect fit for the BE, if they all had elite football teams, which...they don't. The ACC is, by far, the best P4 match for ND institutionally. It's not unreasonable for the Irish to have concerns about their fit in either of the P2. As long as money rather than access is the driving force in Realignment, I predict that ND will maintain a significant level of football independence.

Actually, the Holy Roman Empire was relevant for hundreds of years. ND should be so lucky.

ND is a small private, Catholic school of about 8,500 undergrad students.

It has nothing at all in common with huge, public land grant Big Ten schools of 30,000 undergrads or more.

Nothing, except perhaps geography. I thought that geography was a thing of the past in conference realignment?

ND just doesn't fit the Big Ten. Actually, ND football is a bad fit for every conference.

ND dislikes and especially distrusts the Big Ten based upon both history and recent events, like stabbing the Pac-12 in the back or conning the ACC with the "Alliance" bullshite.

You will have a hard time convincing most ND people that the Big Ten doesn't hold a long standing anti-ND animus and won't try to minimize and harm ND's program again if they get their hands on it.

Both PSU (as you cite) and Nebraska are cautionary tales regarding ND joining the Big Ten.

Even after 33 years, Penn State does not seem to be accepted by the long standing Big Ten schools and instead seems a bit of an outlier.

Nebraska complains often and loudly about it, too. Neither seems to have been properly assimilated into the collective.

ND will never be warmly welcomed and accepted by the Big Ten schools and fans, either.

(Oh, they will hungrily scarf up the excess TV value of ND, sure. But, after that.........)

Nor will ND fans ever be Big Ten fans or embrace the other Big Ten schools or fans as "conference brethren".

History matters. Mutual animus is a real thing. Too much water under that bridge over 125 years.

I know that money drives conference realignment but does the Big Ten really want a school that dislikes it, distrusts it, doesn't want to be part of it and has done everything it can to avoid joining the Big Ten for 34 years and counting ?

ND football is a round peg trying to be pounded by others into a square hole.

Not a big Voltaire fan, huh?

Agree with everything else. People trying to mentally force ND into the B1G are almost as silly as people trying to mentally force A&M to first leave then SEC and then join the B1G. Both of us are extremely happy with our current circumstance, and it would take something earth-shattering, much more than what we've seen recently, to get us to rethink things.
07-06-2024 04:14 PM
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