(06-18-2023 03:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 01:55 PM)otown Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 12:56 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  4. SMU invited to the Pac-12, will join in 2024, initially saying they'll join in 2027 as part of usual AAC dance to get payment settled at $16-18M.

#4 is wrong. AAC song and dance happened with playing 2 lame duck seasons, just a few months shy of the required 27 month notice. A less than a years notice will be a lot more than the AAC Big 3 had to pay.

UConn left in well under 12 months. Same price.

Inflation will push that fee much higher

I get that Texas State is in Texas, and not in the west Texas. But their sports just aren’t good. They’re really terrible in fact. I don’t see how anything that considers performance could take them seriously right now.

I don’t follow them closely, but looking back at the last few seasons, there isn’t much there worth considering. And their attendance. My god, they had less than 1,000 at a home basketball game last season, and tons of games under 2K. I don’t care if they have 40,000 students or not, because it’s clear very few of them give a crap about the sports.

The Mountain West isn’t desperate enough for a member to add a school nobody on campus even cares about. And there would be so little viewership added, it wouldnt pay for extra snacks on the plane ride.

(06-18-2023 01:28 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I was going to post a dominoes post but I will drop this here.

I think the Pac-12 avoids losing members. This is a change in my thinking as of two weeks ago but it seems like momentum has shifted away from defections. I do think the league will add SDSU and SMU to get to 12. My bet on the TV partner is the CW for Tier 1 football content and some basketball, ESPN for Tier 2 content and some basketball, and ION for Tier 3 content. I think the deal will come out to around $27 million per year all in. I think they ultimately avoid Apple as going primarily streaming is a huge risk.

The Big 12 ultimately needs to make a splash so they decide to add Gonzaga. Gonzaga gets a cut of 3-4 million per year.

At this point, I believe the AAC reaches back out to Army, Air Force, and Colorado State. I think Army declines. With SDSU defecting from the MW, that league's TV deal will take a hit. ESPN agrees to pay Air Force and Colorado State legacy member rates (6 million + per year) to jump to the AAC. With 15 schools and a weakened MW, the American grabs Boise State to get to 16.

The MW (now down to eight schools) needs to move quickly. Hawaii uses the situation as leverage to become all-sports members of the league. The league then adds UTEP and SHSU (as Texas State declines) to get back to 10.

The WCC replaces Gonzaga with Seattle and Grand Canyon, and C-USA adds Stephen F. Austin and Austin Peay to get back to 10.

the two most valuable schools the AAC could get are Army and Air Force. They could sell scheduling flexibility to Air Force. Their Navy game would now be one of their 8 conference games. Army would also only effectively have 6 "conference" games since they already played Navy and Air Force. I just don't see them having any interest in Texas St. Georgia St., Marshall or UMass would be more likely, each for different reasons.

(06-18-2023 03:44 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 01:28 PM)Comet Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 01:15 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 01:13 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don’t think the AAC and MWC are poaching each other. They’re both likely getting hit by the Pac-12 and they’ve both failed to poach each other despite each having had a superficial upper hand over the other at different points over the past decade.

Texas State is the school to watch because of the location. They would get the MWC into the part of Texas that “matters” for recruiting and market purposes (which unfortunately for UTEP, they don’t address). For that same reason, the AAC may want Texas State to solidify their position as the primary G5 league for the State of Texas and not let the MWC entrench into that territory. If there was an obvious different G5 target that would bring value, then maybe the MWC and AAC would think differently, but I honestly think the location of Texas State is the most valuable piece on the G5 board for conference realignment purposes (which is distinct from competitive purposes) out of the schools that aren’t already in the MWC or AAC.

I agree on Texas State, but I do think the AAC will take a shot at CSU and AFA again if SDSU and SMU go to the Pac-12.

It’s definitely worth a shot I suppose but if those schools weren’t interested when Houston, Cinci, UCF, and SMU were in the AAC I don’t see a compelling reason for them to move now.

I think MWC looks at UTEP or a Dakota type of move. AAC can’t really backfill with a north Texas school and looking at Texas State is somewhat redundant to UTSA. This is where a crazier move like Liberty or App State could make sense.

San Marcos is part of the San Antonio market and UTSA should dominate Texas State there. San Marcos is also close to Austin and we all know who dominates there.

San Marcos is part of the Austin MSA. Its only about 30 miles from Austin. New Austin suburbs are getting built in the northern part of Hays County (where San Marcos is located).

My prediction would be...

MWC stands pat (for now/a while)
AAC adds Old Dominion to replace SMU
Sun Belt adds FIU to replace ODU
C-USA adds a WAC Texas football school (SFA or Tarleton St).

(06-18-2023 12:01 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Suppose the PAC gets the TV network agreement sorted out, and they expand back to twelve by adding San Diego State and SMU. Here's a prediction on the next moves following the PAC's expansion.

AAC: adds FIU to balance out Florida and Texas presence in the conference.

MWC: adds UTEP to get into Texas, and allows UTEP to be reunited with old WAC foes.

C-USA: adds Stephen F. Austin to get back to 10 teams. Logical Texas replacement since Tarleton State is still transitioning from D2, and allows the rivalry with Sam Houston State to continue.

AAC: adds TXST as a TX replacement for SMU ...blocking the MWC from main part of TX...leaving UTEP for the MWC to get into TX...

FIU isn't going anywhere and will be there if/when the AAC wants to add them...

Texas State does not excite anyone in the MWC. NDSU is more attractive, so are the Montana schools. UTEP is the one FBS school they might target.

PAC loses no one. Adds SDSU, SMU and Gonzaga

B12 accepts Memphis and USF

WCC takes Seattle

AAC brings in MTSU, UMass, and UTEP

CUSA elevates SFA and EKU

(06-18-2023 05:37 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  PAC loses no one. Adds SDSU, SMU and Gonzaga

B12 accepts Memphis and USF

WCC takes Seattle

AAC brings in MTSU, UMass, and UTEP

CUSA elevates SFA and EKU

The AAC will take MTSU, but they'll pass on UMass and UTEP in favor of FIU. UTEP will end up in the MWC. The WCC will also go after Cal Baptist and Grand Canyon.

The C-USA will take SFA, but will take Austin Peay or Tennessee State over EKU. WKU will not allow EKU to be in the same conference with them.

North Dakota State makes more sense for the MWC than (SW) Texas State.

SD St to PAC
SMU to PAC
UTEP to MWC
Army to AAC
C-USA & B12 sets pat

(06-18-2023 04:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 03:44 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 01:28 PM)Comet Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 01:15 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 01:13 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don’t think the AAC and MWC are poaching each other. They’re both likely getting hit by the Pac-12 and they’ve both failed to poach each other despite each having had a superficial upper hand over the other at different points over the past decade.

Texas State is the school to watch because of the location. They would get the MWC into the part of Texas that “matters” for recruiting and market purposes (which unfortunately for UTEP, they don’t address). For that same reason, the AAC may want Texas State to solidify their position as the primary G5 league for the State of Texas and not let the MWC entrench into that territory. If there was an obvious different G5 target that would bring value, then maybe the MWC and AAC would think differently, but I honestly think the location of Texas State is the most valuable piece on the G5 board for conference realignment purposes (which is distinct from competitive purposes) out of the schools that aren’t already in the MWC or AAC.

I agree on Texas State, but I do think the AAC will take a shot at CSU and AFA again if SDSU and SMU go to the Pac-12.

It’s definitely worth a shot I suppose but if those schools weren’t interested when Houston, Cinci, UCF, and SMU were in the AAC I don’t see a compelling reason for them to move now.

I think MWC looks at UTEP or a Dakota type of move. AAC can’t really backfill with a north Texas school and looking at Texas State is somewhat redundant to UTSA. This is where a crazier move like Liberty or App State could make sense.

San Marcos is part of the San Antonio market and UTSA should dominate Texas State there. San Marcos is also close to Austin and we all know who dominates there.

San Marcos is part of the Austin MSA. Its only about 30 miles from Austin. New Austin suburbs are getting built in the northern part of Hays County (where San Marcos is located).

All I did was google what Nielson DMA San Marcos belonged in and it came back with San Antonio. My point was that whether San Antonio or Austin, Texas St is overshadowed in those markets. San Marcos pop is 70k but located in a great area, no argument there.

(06-18-2023 03:15 PM)UVA_guy81 Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 12:18 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 12:01 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Suppose the PAC gets the TV network agreement sorted out, and they expand back to twelve by adding San Diego State and SMU. Here's a prediction on the next moves following the PAC's expansion.

AAC: adds FIU to balance out Florida and Texas presence in the conference.

MWC: adds UTEP to get into Texas, and allows UTEP to be reunited with old WAC foes.

C-USA: adds Stephen F. Austin to get back to 10 teams. Logical Texas replacement since Tarleton State is still transitioning from D2, and allows Sam Houston State to renew its rivalry.

...while the FIU add would make sense geographically, not sure where FIU's 'head is' currently in terms of their overall program... perhaps an infusion of AAC $$$ would help... But having said that, I'd be cool with the Panthers added to the mix...

I would think that the top candidate for the AAC from CUSA would be WKU... although not extremely 'urban', if that actually matters, but they seem to have the most competitive program top to bottom (on average)... La Tech? Maybe, but... not sure if that would actually happen. Georgia State would probably be another one (from SBC) on Aresco's list - they were considered back when the BigXII grabbed UH, UCF, and UC... for whatever reason, GSU declined - perhaps were content in the SBC (it is a great fit, and relatively tight geography).

Otherwise, not sure who the AAC would look at - again, if the AAC and MWC each lose a few teams, not sure if they don't either merge or do some sort of 'quazi-merger' which would ensure scheduling agreements, yet maintain their two bball 'credits' or whatever... and they could have a championship football game between them to fill the expanded playoff 'autobid' more often or not (unless Troy goes on a rampage and ends up 13-0 on a given year... I wouldn't put it past them... ).

The AAC doesn’t care about how good WKU is at anything. They care about markets and Bowling Green, KY is very low on that list. If they move out of C-USA, it’d probably be either back to the Sun Belt or to the MAC.
MTSU would be a possibility to join the AAC but only if Memphis leaves for a P5 conference.

That isn't the whole truth. Yes, the AAC is interested in programs that are in new and expanding markets. But those programs also need to be pro-growth universities that will invest in athletics at a similar level to the legacy members. FBS football isn't getting cheaper.

If AAC cant add a highly desirable AAC team or Army they choose from the below list, not in any order
Ga State
Middle TN
App St
FIU
JMU
CCU
ODU

(06-18-2023 04:04 PM)Todor Wrote:  I get that Texas State is in Texas, and not in the west Texas. But their sports just aren’t good. They’re really terrible in fact.

Yeah, not sure anybody from Texas is fooled by Texas State's immediate or near-term potential for success in an "upper-tier" G5 conference

Some seem to be letting their biases cloud their predictions. I'll try to take an unbiased stab at this...

Big12 takes Colorado and Arizona (a few days before the PAC's bad streaming heavy media deal is set to be announced)

The PAC takes SDSU, UNLV, & SMU (near the end of the regular season, once they finally negotiate a new media deal that doesn't include Colorado & Arizona)

The AAC takes Air Force & Boise State (after the AAC agrees to wave the entrance fees, allow Air Force to have a separate Navy type home game media deal, and Boise realizes their special deal won't be so special in a MWC minus SDSU & Air Force)

The MWC takes LA Tech, ULL, Texas State, & UTEP (to return to 12 members without bringing up FCS programs)

C-USA takes Stephen F. Austin & Central Arkansas (and survives another round of realignment)

The AAC takes Army (after the AAC agrees to wave their entrance fees, and allow them to also have a separate Navy type home game deal too)

The Sun Belt takes no one (drops divisions and plays as a 12 member conference)

ESPN has to be careful with the AAC as to avoid setting up an airport meeting where 2-3 conference suddenly blow up as a result.

(06-18-2023 09:52 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 04:04 PM)Todor Wrote:  I get that Texas State is in Texas, and not in the west Texas. But their sports just aren’t good. They’re really terrible in fact.

Yeah, not sure anybody from Texas is fooled by Texas State's immediate or near-term potential for success in an "upper-tier" G5 conference

Tx State is just far enough outside of SA that the local stations never talk about them. I had no idea how bad they are. It's odd in that they spend like a top 1/3 SBC team, and they do well in most sports (bubas cup winners in 2 of past 6 years), but they've never done much in football.

I bet that will change soon, however, as they recently elevated Don Coryell to the position of Athletics Director. I expect big things from them soon on the gridiron!

(06-18-2023 10:21 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 09:52 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-18-2023 04:04 PM)Todor Wrote:  I get that Texas State is in Texas, and not in the west Texas. But their sports just aren’t good. They’re really terrible in fact.

Yeah, not sure anybody from Texas is fooled by Texas State's immediate or near-term potential for success in an "upper-tier" G5 conference

Tx State is just far enough outside of SA that the local stations never talk about them. I had no idea how bad they are. It's odd in that they spend like a top 1/3 SBC team, and they do well in most sports (bubas cup winners in 2 of past 6 years), but they've never done much in football.

I bet that will change soon, however, as they recently elevated Don Coryell to the position of Athletics Director. I expect big things from them soon on the gridiron!

https://hillviews.txst.edu/issues/2021/f...ryell.html

He grew up in the Golden Triangle (Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange) and graduated from Lamar. I will not hold that against him because my sister graduated from Lamar. A lot of good football players and coaches have come out of the Golden Triangle, but he is not one of them. From the article: Coryell has one other minor advantage — the name he shares with legendary San Diego Chargers and St. Louis Cardinals NFL head coach Don “Air” Coryell. “The only thing I’ll say is I’ve done football scheduling forever, and when I get to call a school in the St. Louis area or on the West Coast,” he says, “I always have no problem getting through to whoever I need to.”

The Bobcats have never had a problem scheduling, the problem has been winning. The 2024 home football OOC schedule includes games against Arizona State, UTSA, and of course, Lamar. He did play basketball at Lamar and maybe he can find a way to get the basketball team to the NCAA Tournament.

He is already setting himself up for failure. “I don’t want us to be content with Sun Belt Conference titles,” he says. “I think we can take the program to national prominence and win national titles.” As a Texas State grad, I would be very content with a conference title, since it almost never happens.

(06-18-2023 10:21 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Tx State is just far enough outside of SA that the local stations never talk about them. I had no idea how bad they are.

You know this better than me because you're a Texan:

Start at the TX/OK border near Gainesville, draw a half-circle around the DFW Metroplex, then down I-35 through Waco, Killeen, Austin and San Antonio, meander E/SE toward the Gulf to Freeport on the outskirts of Greater Houston.

Along that imaginary line and to the east is a "region" that produces 90-plus percent of the state's Division I-A football talent.

The challenge/sticking point for a school like (SW) Texas State is that everybody and they mama at the P-5 level is seriously recruiting that area of Texas. Same goes for better-resourced and/or more established G-5 schools like SMU, Tulane, Boise State, Air Force, Army and Navy on down to AAC call-ups like UTSA and UNT.

The talent pool has been picked over and thinned out by the time Texas State and its ilk are putting together their signing classes. Now throw in the transfer portal where G-5 schools are on the verge of serving as a Triple-A farm system where players are essentially called up and sent down in the off-season and top coaching prospects hired as needed.

In that environment, how is an upstart program 30 minutes down the road from the slumbering giant at Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium going to build any type of significant fan interest?