(01-19-2023 01:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

I wonder...

If Colorado, AZ, AZ state, and SDSU joined the B12...

a.) would Fox and espn update the B12 media deal accordingly

b.) would a smaller PAC conference actually do better for media deal.

My thought on b, is that I think we're starting to see sticker shock for total conference media deal numbers.

Perhaps a smaller conference could get more.

Also, it definitely could reduce the PAC schools' travel times (and this travel costs) if those 3 left - which is of course another monetary concern to consider.

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

I'd guess either FIU or MTSU, depending on what USF and Memphis think about bringing in another in-state school. Wherever F_U goes, F_U seems to follow.


FIU is currently an AAC member in Men's Soccer and Women's Swimming.

MTSU is in the #18 TV market, which is what the AAC cares about. FIU is in the #29 TV market.

(01-19-2023 01:28 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

I wonder...

If Colorado, AZ, AZ state, and SDSU joined the B12...

a.) would Fox and espn update the B12 media deal accordingly

b.) would a smaller PAC conference actually do better for media deal.

My thought on b, is that I think we're starting to see sticker shock for total conference media deal numbers.

Perhaps a smaller conference could get more.

Also, it definitely could reduce the PAC schools' travel times (and this travel costs) if those 3 left - which is of course another monetary concern to consider.

That would create a 7 school PAC. Need 8 to be an fbs conference. Who would be number 8?

(01-19-2023 01:41 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:28 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

I wonder...

If Colorado, AZ, AZ state, and SDSU joined the B12...

a.) would Fox and espn update the B12 media deal accordingly

b.) would a smaller PAC conference actually do better for media deal.

My thought on b, is that I think we're starting to see sticker shock for total conference media deal numbers.

Perhaps a smaller conference could get more.

Also, it definitely could reduce the PAC schools' travel times (and this travel costs) if those 3 left - which is of course another monetary concern to consider.

That would create a 7 school PAC. Need 8 to be an fbs conference. Who would be number 8?

Good question.

Adding Gonzaga would help, but I think they still need another football school too.

Boise state would be in the new footprint. Any other suggestions/ideas?

(01-19-2023 01:47 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:41 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:28 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

I wonder...

If Colorado, AZ, AZ state, and SDSU joined the B12...

a.) would Fox and espn update the B12 media deal accordingly

b.) would a smaller PAC conference actually do better for media deal.

My thought on b, is that I think we're starting to see sticker shock for total conference media deal numbers.

Perhaps a smaller conference could get more.

Also, it definitely could reduce the PAC schools' travel times (and this travel costs) if those 3 left - which is of course another monetary concern to consider.

That would create a 7 school PAC. Need 8 to be an fbs conference. Who would be number 8?

Good question.

Adding Gonzaga would help, but I think they still need another football school too.

Boise state would be in the new footprint. Any other suggestions/ideas?

Having lost Colorado in this scenario, perhaps Colorado State?

(01-19-2023 01:51 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:47 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:41 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:28 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

I wonder...

If Colorado, AZ, AZ state, and SDSU joined the B12...

a.) would Fox and espn update the B12 media deal accordingly

b.) would a smaller PAC conference actually do better for media deal.

My thought on b, is that I think we're starting to see sticker shock for total conference media deal numbers.

Perhaps a smaller conference could get more.

Also, it definitely could reduce the PAC schools' travel times (and this travel costs) if those 3 left - which is of course another monetary concern to consider.

That would create a 7 school PAC. Need 8 to be an fbs conference. Who would be number 8?

Good question.

Adding Gonzaga would help, but I think they still need another football school too.

Boise state would be in the new footprint. Any other suggestions/ideas?

Having lost Colorado in this scenario, perhaps Colorado State?

maybe - them paired with air force might not be bad either.

Would the PAC invite them?

2 weeks

(01-19-2023 01:29 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

I'd guess either FIU or MTSU, depending on what USF and Memphis think about bringing in another in-state school. Wherever F_U goes, F_U seems to follow.


FIU is currently an AAC member in Men's Soccer and Women's Swimming.

MTSU is in the #18 TV market, which is what the AAC cares about. FIU is in the #29 TV market.

Last time around (only a year ago) I saw Georgia State mentioned a bit. Atlanta market for a conference that values city schools and has no Georgia presence.

(01-19-2023 11:14 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

Aresco would probably have to settle for UL-Monroe.

It seems like LaTech is very loyal to Judy ... I mean why else would would they still be in C-USA?

La Tech would jump to AAC in heart-beat.

(01-19-2023 12:51 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 11:08 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

15 is wishful thinking

14.5 is cold, hard reality

I think people have made interesting points about why to not invite UNLV.

But, I think at this point, I don't think they're all in on recruiting only due to academics, when all it takes is an agreement of "work on it", and when geography seems to be a premium criteria.

I think taking SDSU and Fresno state as a pair to cover california is sounding more and more like a good idea.

If people really want SMU, then build a pod/division:

SMU, Tulane, and Rice would, I presume, at least mollify the academics.

I like the Trio - maybe UTSA instead of Rice. That being said, Rice does bring a lot to the table, just not very good football, but getting better!

(01-19-2023 04:08 PM)Big Foote Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:51 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 11:08 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

15 is wishful thinking

14.5 is cold, hard reality

I think people have made interesting points about why to not invite UNLV.

But, I think at this point, I don't think they're all in on recruiting only due to academics, when all it takes is an agreement of "work on it", and when geography seems to be a premium criteria.

I think taking SDSU and Fresno state as a pair to cover california is sounding more and more like a good idea.

If people really want SMU, then build a pod/division:

SMU, Tulane, and Rice would, I presume, at least mollify the academics.

I like the Trio - maybe UTSA instead of Rice. That being said, Rice does bring a lot to the table, just not very good football, but getting better!

Rice (and Tulane) brings AAU to the table.

that said, SMU, Tulane, Rice, plus UTSA doesn't look bad at all.

(01-19-2023 01:28 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

I wonder...

If Colorado, AZ, AZ state, and SDSU joined the B12...

a.) would Fox and espn update the B12 media deal accordingly

b.) would a smaller PAC conference actually do better for media deal.

My thought on b, is that I think we're starting to see sticker shock for total conference media deal numbers.

Perhaps a smaller conference could get more.

Also, it definitely could reduce the PAC schools' travel times (and this travel costs) if those 3 left - which is of course another monetary concern to consider.

I don't see a scenario where a smaller conference would generate more money. You would need to get rid of duplicate market additions and under performing brands to do that. A conference without Washington State/Oregon State is different than one with no Arizonas or Colorado.

I do think that if the right group came to the Big 12, you would see ESPN/FOX bid on that media package with late night inventory and you would see the PAC be undercut. With competition from the B1G, Big 12, and PAC, the late night inventory slot would diminish in value as the PAC would no longer have a monopoly on it.

I don't know if there is sticker shock going on, or something else. I said earlier, if the press doesn't start leaking some semi-legitimate figures by the end of January, then something is amiss. They have had plenty of time to assemble their packages and deals and talk with outside parties. They should have a good idea of their value at this point. There may be "no rush" but I'm pretty sure that any teams planning on leaving have until July 2023 to give their notice. I can't see stability being strong if there is no media deal in place by that point.

I think they get a deal done, and it will be something that is not great but has to be tolerated. I don't see expansion happening absent a departure from Oregon and Washington.

(01-19-2023 04:14 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 04:08 PM)Big Foote Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:51 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 11:08 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

15 is wishful thinking

14.5 is cold, hard reality

I think people have made interesting points about why to not invite UNLV.

But, I think at this point, I don't think they're all in on recruiting only due to academics, when all it takes is an agreement of "work on it", and when geography seems to be a premium criteria.

I think taking SDSU and Fresno state as a pair to cover california is sounding more and more like a good idea.

If people really want SMU, then build a pod/division:

SMU, Tulane, and Rice would, I presume, at least mollify the academics.

I like the Trio - maybe UTSA instead of Rice. That being said, Rice does bring a lot to the table, just not very good football, but getting better!

Rice (and Tulane) brings AAU to the table.

that said, SMU, Tulane, Rice, plus UTSA doesn't look bad at all.

Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and New Orleans - that is a good TV market group of schools. Major push into Texas and great every other year game to New Orleans!

(01-19-2023 04:22 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:28 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 02:13 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think they'd be thrilled to go with an Amazon or Apple streaming service, if it would give them $40mil a year per team. At least until all the realignment settles down. Maybe as short as 2025.

I dont think they are going to get that much. That number assumes they can take the very best games from Amazon---without Amazon lowering the bid---and give CBS a package of CBS-OTA worthy games (one per week) at a premium price. Lets just use common sense----if anything near 40 million was currently on the table this deal would have long ago been done. The reason it hasnt been done yet is they are probably much closer to 20 million per team than they are to the Big12's 32 million per team----and thats a problem for the Pac12.....so the Pac12 continues to move the pieces around hoping to find a magic formula to get Big12 money or better.

I wonder...

If Colorado, AZ, AZ state, and SDSU joined the B12...

a.) would Fox and espn update the B12 media deal accordingly

b.) would a smaller PAC conference actually do better for media deal.

My thought on b, is that I think we're starting to see sticker shock for total conference media deal numbers.

Perhaps a smaller conference could get more.

Also, it definitely could reduce the PAC schools' travel times (and this travel costs) if those 3 left - which is of course another monetary concern to consider.

I don't see a scenario where a smaller conference would generate more money. You would need to get rid of duplicate market additions and under performing brands to do that. A conference without Washington State/Oregon State is different than one with no Arizonas or Colorado.

I do think that if the right group came to the Big 12, you would see ESPN/FOX bid on that media package with late night inventory and you would see the PAC be undercut. With competition from the B1G, Big 12, and PAC, the late night inventory slot would diminish in value as the PAC would no longer have a monopoly on it.

I don't know if there is sticker shock going on, or something else. I said earlier, if the press doesn't start leaking some semi-legitimate figures by the end of January, then something is amiss. They have had plenty of time to assemble their packages and deals and talk with outside parties. They should have a good idea of their value at this point. There may be "no rush" but I'm pretty sure that any teams planning on leaving have until July 2023 to give their notice. I can't see stability being strong if there is no media deal in place by that point.

I think they get a deal done, and it will be something that is not great but has to be tolerated. I don't see expansion happening absent a departure from Oregon and Washington.

Maybe, but 250M goes farther amongst 8 schools than 10.

Suddenly what was seen as a bad deal, doesn't look quite so bad.

And I don't think losing arizona and colorado - while yes, different markets - would cause much of a reduction in offer, if any. The losses would be mountain, not pacific time zones. And San Francisco and Seattle, et al, would still be there.

(01-19-2023 04:22 PM)Big Foote Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 04:14 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 04:08 PM)Big Foote Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:51 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 11:08 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  15 is wishful thinking

14.5 is cold, hard reality

I think people have made interesting points about why to not invite UNLV.

But, I think at this point, I don't think they're all in on recruiting only due to academics, when all it takes is an agreement of "work on it", and when geography seems to be a premium criteria.

I think taking SDSU and Fresno state as a pair to cover california is sounding more and more like a good idea.

If people really want SMU, then build a pod/division:

SMU, Tulane, and Rice would, I presume, at least mollify the academics.

I like the Trio - maybe UTSA instead of Rice. That being said, Rice does bring a lot to the table, just not very good football, but getting better!

Rice (and Tulane) brings AAU to the table.

that said, SMU, Tulane, Rice, plus UTSA doesn't look bad at all.

Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and New Orleans - that is a good TV market group of schools. Major push into Texas and great every other year game to New Orleans!

Add those to SDSU and Fresno state, and you get 2 california schools for that market, and then these 4 for the markets you noted.

Could make for an interesting 16 member conference. Now they would just need to see if they could get paid for all that : )

(01-19-2023 04:33 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 04:22 PM)Big Foote Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 04:14 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 04:08 PM)Big Foote Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:51 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I think people have made interesting points about why to not invite UNLV.

But, I think at this point, I don't think they're all in on recruiting only due to academics, when all it takes is an agreement of "work on it", and when geography seems to be a premium criteria.

I think taking SDSU and Fresno state as a pair to cover california is sounding more and more like a good idea.

If people really want SMU, then build a pod/division:

SMU, Tulane, and Rice would, I presume, at least mollify the academics.

I like the Trio - maybe UTSA instead of Rice. That being said, Rice does bring a lot to the table, just not very good football, but getting better!

Rice (and Tulane) brings AAU to the table.

that said, SMU, Tulane, Rice, plus UTSA doesn't look bad at all.

Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and New Orleans - that is a good TV market group of schools. Major push into Texas and great every other year game to New Orleans!

Add those to SDSU and Fresno state, and you get 2 california schools for that market, and then these 4 for the markets you noted.

Could make for an interesting 16 member conference. Now they would just need to see if they could get paid for all that : )

I like the new Goup of 6 - SDSU, Fresno St., SMU, Tulane, Rice and UTSA!

(01-19-2023 02:19 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 01:29 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

I'd guess either FIU or MTSU, depending on what USF and Memphis think about bringing in another in-state school. Wherever F_U goes, F_U seems to follow.


FIU is currently an AAC member in Men's Soccer and Women's Swimming.

MTSU is in the #18 TV market, which is what the AAC cares about. FIU is in the #29 TV market.

Last time around (only a year ago) I saw Georgia State mentioned a bit. Atlanta market for a conference that values city schools and has no Georgia presence.

Georgia State didn't want the AAC last year. That's why they were one of the most mentioned names for expansion...until they weren't.

I'm not sure adding UNC Charlotte, North Texas, Florida Atlantic, and Rice is going to change their mind.

(01-19-2023 01:29 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 05:49 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:05 AM)Acres Wrote:  Texas and Oklahoma made 10 schools work for the big12 until it didn’t. Boren”s “ psychological disadvantage “ proved true. Can’t see the pac12 staying 10 while three other power conferences are at 16 or 15.

Would expect a pac12 deal by end off January, expansion by end of March. San Diego state would need to give at least a years notice before July (I think) and work out it’s out of conference schedule.

Good point. So who do you think AAC would replace SMU with?

La Tech would make the most sense.

I'd guess either FIU or MTSU, depending on what USF and Memphis think about bringing in another in-state school. Wherever F_U goes, F_U seems to follow.


FIU is currently an AAC member in Men's Soccer and Women's Swimming.

MTSU is in the #18 TV market, which is what the AAC cares about. FIU is in the #29 TV market.

MTSU might well beat out Vandy in TV ratings.

(01-19-2023 04:59 PM)Claw Wrote:  MTSU might well beat out Vandy in TV ratings.

Mr. Dazzle can weigh in, but here are a couple numbers to consider:

Football attendance (2018-22): Vandy 28,075; MTSU: 15,009

Men's basketball attendance (2021-22 season): Vandy 6,539; MTSU: 3,295

Those same SEC fan bases that buy tickets when their teams play in Nashville are probably going to account for higher TV ratings for conference games involving the Commodores than their C-USA neighbors in Murfreesboro

Corporal Kliavkoff at the next Pac-12 meeting