(01-17-2023 12:04 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-16-2023 10:36 PM)BamaTigerCub Wrote:  

(01-11-2023 10:15 AM)gusrob Wrote:  

(01-11-2023 10:06 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  For comparison:

36 KenPom
27 Torvik
28 RPI
32 ELO
31 Average - equates to a 7.69 seed

57 NET
(Equates to a 14.25 seed/aka missed tournament)

I've done some pretty extensive research on this, and we seem to be the only outlier when it comes to this degree of discrepancy between the NET vs. all other metrics. This is extremely unlucky.

It's not a conspiracy before anyone starts with that. It's literally a very unlucky situation with the way the numbers work out so far, and could be the reason we miss the tournament vs making it any other year prior to the NET. (Hope not)

Oh yeah? Tell me more.

This is the world we live in where people have to disprove conspiracy theories.

It turns out, this isn't one. It really is rigged against non P5.

Some people think for themselves. Others are happy to be spoon-fed.

Good night for the Tigers. Seton Hall beat UConn, Auburn routed LSU, Nebraska beat Ohio St and St Louis also won.

(01-19-2023 07:03 AM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Good night for the Tigers. Seton Hall beat UConn, Auburn routed LSU, Nebraska beat Ohio St and St Louis also won.

Yep. Uconn got Seton Halled.

This morning in the NET.

21 Auburn
42 UCF
45 Memphis
61 Seton Hall
86 StL
88 Nebraska
99 Tulane

(01-18-2023 10:35 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-17-2023 03:35 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(01-17-2023 03:26 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  NET #34 Utah State (14-4):
#46 in KenPom and #66 in Sagarin.
0-2 in Quad 1 games.
3-2 in Quads 1/2.
Two Quad 4 losses.
Played 12 Quad 3/4 games.
Best win - #61 Oral Roberts @ home.
Worst loss - #228 Weber State @ home.

NET #46 Memphis (13-5):
#36 in KenPom and #47 in Sagarin.
1-2 in Quad 1 games.
4-5 in Quads 1/2.
Zero Quad 4 losses.
Played 9 Quad 3/4 games.
Best win - #26 Auburn @ neutral court.
Worst loss - #88 SLU @ St Louis.

Quite a disparity. Makes no sense.

The ONLY thing they have the advantage on is a winning record in quads 1/2. We've played almost twice as many quad 1/2 games, but we are 4-5 whereas they are 3-2.

Not really. It makes perfect sense if you look at how many blowout (20+ points) wins they've had compared to us. I know, I know. They cap the points to prevent this. I'm not so convinced as the circumstantial evidence continues to mount.

So blowout wins against bad opponents, trump bad losses and lack of any good wins? It's the exact opposite of the narrative they put out.

I am 99% sure that pure Q1 wins account for a big part of the inequity, with 3-9 in Q1 getting higher value than 2-3. Also, there is no denying that the NET has a LOT of elements of the RPI in it.

There is no other explanation for the huge gap between us and Boise.

19 Boise 14-4
Q1 0-1
Q2 7-2
Q3 3-0
Q4 4-1

45 Memphis 13-5
Q1 1-2
Q2 3-3
Q3 4-0
Q4 5-0

It is equally crazy with Utah State.

34 Utah State 14-4
Q1 0-2
Q2 4-0
Q3 7-0
Q4 3-2

(01-19-2023 08:19 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 07:03 AM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Good night for the Tigers. Seton Hall beat UConn, Auburn routed LSU, Nebraska beat Ohio St and St Louis also won.

Yep. Uconn got Seton Halled.

(01-19-2023 10:03 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 10:35 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-17-2023 03:35 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(01-17-2023 03:26 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  NET #34 Utah State (14-4):
#46 in KenPom and #66 in Sagarin.
0-2 in Quad 1 games.
3-2 in Quads 1/2.
Two Quad 4 losses.
Played 12 Quad 3/4 games.
Best win - #61 Oral Roberts @ home.
Worst loss - #228 Weber State @ home.

NET #46 Memphis (13-5):
#36 in KenPom and #47 in Sagarin.
1-2 in Quad 1 games.
4-5 in Quads 1/2.
Zero Quad 4 losses.
Played 9 Quad 3/4 games.
Best win - #26 Auburn @ neutral court.
Worst loss - #88 SLU @ St Louis.

Quite a disparity. Makes no sense.

The ONLY thing they have the advantage on is a winning record in quads 1/2. We've played almost twice as many quad 1/2 games, but we are 4-5 whereas they are 3-2.

Not really. It makes perfect sense if you look at how many blowout (20+ points) wins they've had compared to us. I know, I know. They cap the points to prevent this. I'm not so convinced as the circumstantial evidence continues to mount.

So blowout wins against bad opponents, trump bad losses and lack of any good wins? It's the exact opposite of the narrative they put out.

I am 99% sure that pure Q1 wins account for a big part of the inequity, with 3-9 in Q1 getting higher value than 2-3. Also, there is no denying that the NET has a LOT of elements of the RPI in it.

There is no other explanation for the huge gap between us and Boise.

19 Boise 14-4
Q1 0-1
Q2 7-2
Q3 3-0
Q4 4-1

45 Memphis
13-5
Q1 1-2
Q2 3-3
Q3 4-0
Q4 5-0

It is equally crazy with Utah State.

34 Utah State 14-4
Q1 0-2
Q2 4-0
Q3 7-0
Q4 3-2

So damn frustrating. I feel like Ohio State takes the cake at the moment. 28 in the NET. This is a 10 - 8 team we are talking about here, with a home loss to 211 NET Minn. I mean what are we even talking about?

(01-19-2023 10:19 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:03 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 10:35 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-17-2023 03:35 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(01-17-2023 03:26 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  NET #34 Utah State (14-4):
#46 in KenPom and #66 in Sagarin.
0-2 in Quad 1 games.
3-2 in Quads 1/2.
Two Quad 4 losses.
Played 12 Quad 3/4 games.
Best win - #61 Oral Roberts @ home.
Worst loss - #228 Weber State @ home.

NET #46 Memphis (13-5):
#36 in KenPom and #47 in Sagarin.
1-2 in Quad 1 games.
4-5 in Quads 1/2.
Zero Quad 4 losses.
Played 9 Quad 3/4 games.
Best win - #26 Auburn @ neutral court.
Worst loss - #88 SLU @ St Louis.

Quite a disparity. Makes no sense.

The ONLY thing they have the advantage on is a winning record in quads 1/2. We've played almost twice as many quad 1/2 games, but we are 4-5 whereas they are 3-2.

Not really. It makes perfect sense if you look at how many blowout (20+ points) wins they've had compared to us. I know, I know. They cap the points to prevent this. I'm not so convinced as the circumstantial evidence continues to mount.

So blowout wins against bad opponents, trump bad losses and lack of any good wins? It's the exact opposite of the narrative they put out.

I am 99% sure that pure Q1 wins account for a big part of the inequity, with 3-9 in Q1 getting higher value than 2-3. Also, there is no denying that the NET has a LOT of elements of the RPI in it.

There is no other explanation for the huge gap between us and Boise.

19 Boise 14-4
Q1 0-1
Q2 7-2
Q3 3-0
Q4 4-1

45 Memphis
13-5
Q1 1-2
Q2 3-3
Q3 4-0
Q4 5-0

It is equally crazy with Utah State.

34 Utah State 14-4
Q1 0-2
Q2 4-0
Q3 7-0
Q4 3-2

So damn frustrating. I feel like Ohio State takes the cake at the moment. 28 in the NET. This is a 10 - 8 team we are talking about here, with a home loss to 211 NET Minn. I mean what are we even talking about?

Pretty d@%* frustrating.

(01-19-2023 10:28 AM)gusrob Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:19 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 10:03 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-18-2023 10:35 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-17-2023 03:35 PM)msu35 Wrote:  Not really. It makes perfect sense if you look at how many blowout (20+ points) wins they've had compared to us. I know, I know. They cap the points to prevent this. I'm not so convinced as the circumstantial evidence continues to mount.

So blowout wins against bad opponents, trump bad losses and lack of any good wins? It's the exact opposite of the narrative they put out.

I am 99% sure that pure Q1 wins account for a big part of the inequity, with 3-9 in Q1 getting higher value than 2-3. Also, there is no denying that the NET has a LOT of elements of the RPI in it.

There is no other explanation for the huge gap between us and Boise.

19 Boise 14-4
Q1 0-1
Q2 7-2
Q3 3-0
Q4 4-1

45 Memphis
13-5
Q1 1-2
Q2 3-3
Q3 4-0
Q4 5-0

It is equally crazy with Utah State.

34 Utah State 14-4
Q1 0-2
Q2 4-0
Q3 7-0
Q4 3-2

So damn frustrating. I feel like Ohio State takes the cake at the moment. 28 in the NET. This is a 10 - 8 team we are talking about here, with a home loss to 211 NET Minn. I mean what are we even talking about?

Pretty d@%* frustrating.

OH St's RPI is currently 109. I mean, that tells you that OH ST is cranking on some special sauce in the net.

The NET loves them some west coast teams. St Mary’s and all those Mountain West schools

(01-19-2023 12:31 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  The NET loves them some west coast teams. St Mary’s and all those Mountain West schools

The MWC is stupid.

5 teams in the top 34. 4 of them are a combined 2-10 in Q1 games, with more Q4 losses than Q1 wins.

(01-19-2023 12:51 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-19-2023 12:31 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  The NET loves them some west coast teams. St Mary’s and all those Mountain West schools

The MWC is stupid.

5 teams in the top 34. 4 of them are a combined 2-10 in Q1 games, with more Q4 losses than Q1 wins.

I'm almost dead certain the MWC has hired an analytics person who has told them who to schedule over the past few years that will pump up their net ratings. They have probably run a few billion simulations on past results and net rankings, and have come up with something close enough to know how to game the system.

This is nothing new. Memphis used to be king of mastering the rpi scheduling back in the day when Cal was here. The difference is that the rpi was an open-source calculation. The net isnt.

This is a conference that has gotten way too many teams in the tournament and overseeded, only to collapse like a house of cards when play starts. Its like they know how to game the system.

Up 2 spots to 43 this morning. Our Orlando buddies sitting one spot ahead at 42.

Just got tickets for the cincy game hope to see some of y’all there. We really need this one.

(01-20-2023 08:57 AM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  Up 2 spots to 43 this morning. Our Orlando buddies sitting one spot ahead at 42.

Just got tickets for the cincy game hope to see some of y’all there. We really need this one.

Obviously, it would have been great to win, but UCF wasn't a must win at all. Funny, sort of, going back and reading the hysterics (from the usual group of posters), saying that we were out and needed to win the conference tournament to get in.

It is possibly a must win for Cincinnati, and our team should understand that that is what they are going to get from them. They are playing mostly good basketball right now. Ideally, we beat them and then they go on a winning streak. It could end up being a Q1 win.

(01-20-2023 08:57 AM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  Up 2 spots to 43 this morning. Our Orlando buddies sitting one spot ahead at 42.

Just got tickets for the cincy game hope to see some of y’all there. We really need this one.

If we lose at Cincy in a tight one it won't be the end of the world, however a win would be a really nice boost. That should get us in the 30's of the NET and solidly in everyone's brackets. Also, a win Sunday could very well add another Quad 1 win on our resume as they are #82 in the NET. If they could end the season top 75, it would go down as a quad 1 win.

Not to mention our schedule significantly lightens after this game, could be the beginning of a nice winning streak (that actually started @TEM) leading all the way in to the @Houston game. Imagine being 21-5 going into that game. It's very doable with the way our conference schedule has been front-loaded with tough road games.

I don't believe Cincinnati will be an easy road game. They've been trending up as we've been trending down, and they have strong outside shooters. Nolley has been averaging over 44% outside the arc, and both DeJulius and Adams-Woods are shooting 38% or better. If we can't stop giving up open looks on the perimeter, it could get ugly quick.

(01-20-2023 08:57 AM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  Up 2 spots to 43 this morning. Our Orlando buddies sitting one spot ahead at 42.

Just got tickets for the cincy game hope to see some of y’all there. We really need this one.

You're going to Cincy? I'm passing on that one.

TxAm playing in Rupp today....Been playing good ball....let's see if they can take X to the woodshed

(01-20-2023 10:57 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-20-2023 08:57 AM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  Up 2 spots to 43 this morning. Our Orlando buddies sitting one spot ahead at 42.

Just got tickets for the cincy game hope to see some of y’all there. We really need this one.

Obviously, it would have been great to win, but UCF wasn't a must win at all. Funny, sort of, going back and reading the hysterics (from the usual group of posters), saying that we were out and needed to win the conference tournament to get in.

It is possibly a must win for Cincinnati, and our team should understand that that is what they are going to get from them. They are playing mostly good basketball right now. Ideally, we beat them and then they go on a winning streak. It could end up being a Q1 win.

Totally agree. If we win this game, then we are in a good spot.


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