(09-22-2022 08:47 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 05:28 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 04:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 04:38 PM)miko33 Wrote:  [quote='Brookes Owl' pid='18462833' dateline='1663877879']

Your posts on this subject have been pretty consistent: Criticism of Ukraine and its supporters, skepticism of positive Ukrainian news, and "no good guys here". Not sure I've seen any other criticism of Putin or Russia from you. Maybe the russian bot can chime in and make your case.

I don't really have a dog in this hunt (whether or not we should support Ukraine) but I do find Putin to be a pain in the ass and I'm encouraged that he has exposed Russia's shortcomings in this "action", likely hamstringing his ability to do more conventional-warfare damage going forward.

Russia has an existential demographic problem: They're getting very old very quickly and have a low birth rate. Relatively soon they will have more consumers than producers. It's going to crush them economically and destroy their military, among other things. That's a much better explanation for Russia's aggression than "de-nazification" or "NATO provocation". But it also gives an indication that: 1) he's not going to nuke or otherwise level Ukraine because he needs it, and 2) he's not going to be finished when he's done in Ukraine. With its current demographic trajectory Russia will need to expand beyond Ukraine to be confident of security. Hence the talk about Poland, Moldova, etc.

Putin is not a dummy. He should have been well aware that 1) Russia already lost due to demographics alone, 2) Corruption is rampant and that the military itself was in suboptimal shape given the questionable munitions and equipment along with the poor training of volunteers in peace time and 3) That a lack of an effective NCO cadre within the Russian military put them at a tactical disadvantage against NATO (U.S. in particular) and 4) The poor state of the manufacturing and technology sectors that have made them highly reliant on western made chips and other tech for their best weapons.

I can understand how he could have thrown caution to the wind and went after Ukraine thinking he'd take them out before NATO could have done much of anything to thwart him. Especially with the demographic collapse alone his army has a shelf life before it starts to unravel. But by the time he saw quite early in the war that Ukrainian resistance plus limited NATO arms transfers seriously hurt the invasion force...he should have stopped, secured the breakaway areas and declared their special mission over and then annexed the areas and called it a day. With what little he saw of the war very early on, he KNEW that it was a pipedream to take over Ukraine completely, secured it and then press on into Poland.

I don't understand what is driving Putin to continue this war. He's repeatedly showing the weaknesses of the Russian military from personnel, how it's structured and the poor defense industry in his own country.

Ive thought about this was well and I keep coming back to only two possible answers.

Possibility One--There is something physically wrong with Putin and he is simply not the same Putin we have been dealing with prior to this war. Maybe the isolation due to Covid affected him mentally---but the old Putin would have exacted most of what he wanted by leveraging the tremendous negotiating advantage he had created for himself in January. Remember, at that time he had checkmated the west as his troops had surrounded Ukraine and it was assumed that NATO and Ukraine could do little to stop him. He could have probably negotiated about 90% of what he wanted without even firing a shot at that point. The old Putin would have robbed the west at the negotiating table and kept his forces 100% intact.

Possibility Two---Putin has become so isolated and has punished so many underlings for bringing him bad news that he no longer is getting good information with which to make decisions. I think he was convinced that he would win in Ukraine in days (a mistake that is excusable because most people believed that), but the issue is he had no idea that his army wasnt ready to go. Clearly, nobody told him that you cant invade on the spur of the moment and give your army planners only 24 hours notice prior to the invasion. Invading armies need supplies and the Russian Army, that is already not particularly good at logistics, were never going to be logistically ready to invade anyone on short notice. Clearly---nobody told Putin this----and its possible nobody is still giving Putin the true situation on the ground in Ukraine. Regardless---at this point, he may feel politically he has no choice but to continue--regardless of how bad it is. If he can hang to the Donbas and Crimea through the winter----he could potentially swing a negotiated settlement creating some sort of autonomous regions in the Donbas and Crimea---and then declare a "mission accomplished" victory. The problem there is for Ukraine to sign onto any negotiated peace---there will need to be a rock solid article 5 like security guarantee from the a coalition of western nuclear nations---likely a group that includes the US, France, and the UK (likely Poland and Germany as well).

I'd add a third possibility - It didn't matter if his army was unprepared. If he believes Russia's demography is truly an existential crisis, he might believe this is his last opportunity to keep the country (as he knows it, anyway) from collapsing.

That third possibility is my opinion of the overarching reason war would have started eventually by Russia. Their backs are against the wall in numerous areas before the war started if your looking at 100+ year outlook of a people and land.

Edit: The above does not mitigate my stance of a lot of blame for this specific war falls directly on the U.S. which can be seen from 2014-invasion.

(09-22-2022 01:20 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 08:13 PM)Todor Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 07:26 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  What a monumental waste of $$$ that we don't have.

We should have stayed completely out of it. Not our business.

But, even in this forum, you have those who continually cheer on every war the US starts as some kind of essential fight for our own survival and point to all the great news it really is.

They don’t care what the cost is. They don’t care if we have the money. The only care about carrying out a globalist agenda based in hypotheticals. Sure, let’s spend all of our money not only burning our bridges, but burning the rest of the worlds too. It’s not gonna be pretty when it stops working because more and more people hate us every day for the crap we go around pulling on people.

Sure, there are certainly people who reflexively cheer on every war the US is in. Just like there are people who reflexively cheer against the US in every war.

However, I think you're mistaken if you think anyone sees this as a fight for US survival. This is a low-cost investment to keep our self-declared enemies as far away from us as possible and to increase certainty for American investors (such as US pension funds that provide middle-class retirement savings) who invest in our close European allies.

And yes, $50 billion is low-cost. $50 billion is less than 1% of our federal budget. It's 0.2% of our GDP.

We're not dirt-poor Russians who have the same GDP/capita as Costa Rica. A country whose average income is 1/4 of the poorest state in the USA. $50 billion is a drop in the bucket for us.

No, we’re not “dirt poor Russians” who pay their bills. We’re the economic genius country that is 32 TRILLION in debt. The country with no savings, no money put aside, no sovereign wealth fund and completely unfounded social security and retirement systems.

Laugh all you want at Russia, but remove 32 TRLION from the US and see what IT looks like. That will be the real America. That will be what we are really worth. And it won’t be pretty.

Those who live in Ponzi schemes shouldn’t give economics lessons.

Demographics and economics mean the Russian army is going to get weaker over the next 50-100 years. Most geopolitical scholars I know have been predicting it would fall off a cliff in about a decade. I don't think anyone (least of all Putin) realized how bad it had already gotten.

Sending a tugboat on deployment with your one aircraft carrier, in order to tow it home if need be, followed by said carrier sinking and catching fire in dry dock, should have sent signals.

For fanboys Putin and the kleptocrats. The guy in the video looks like he might be unsteady on his feet. Probably needs to stay away from staircases and windows and boats and balconies and waterfalls

(09-22-2022 08:30 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I see mobilization is going well.

Putin's nuts are in a vise. But people leaving Russia because of the mobilization may help him take care of part of the backlash. Plus, it's being said, that arrested protesters are being forced into the Russian military. The wild card here will be the Russian mothers. Do they take to the streets?

(09-23-2022 11:10 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 08:30 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I see mobilization is going well.

Putin's nuts are in a vise. But people leaving Russia because of the mobilization may help him take care of part of the backlash. Plus, it's being said, that arrested protesters are being forced into the Russian military. The wild card here will be the Russian mothers. Do they take to the streets?

Once the mothers and wives/girlfriends start raising hell (and that's bound to happen) it's over for Putin.

(09-23-2022 11:10 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 08:30 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I see mobilization is going well.

Putin's nuts are in a vise. But people leaving Russia because of the mobilization may help him take care of part of the backlash. Plus, it's being said, that arrested protesters are being forced into the Russian military. The wild card here will be the Russian mothers. Do they take to the streets?

Doesnt matter. Those unwilling call ups will get maybe a week of training at most (many wont even get that) and be sent directly to the front lines. When they get there, their primary motivation will not be territorial acquisition for "Mother Russia"---it will be preserving their own life so they can see their mothers again. Surrender and retreat will be familiar outcomes for these unmotivated Russian units that do not represent trained professional career military types. This move is an act of forced desperation. Putin is running out of cards to play where he remains in control of Russia when the conflict is settled.

When the argument shifts to hoping for Russias demographic collapse 100 years from now, you know you’re in trouble.

Ukraine is toast. We can keep throwing good money after bad or not. I’d say it’s up to the American people, but we all know it really isn’t.

But the United States of Madoff is going to run out of new investors soon.

(09-23-2022 03:43 PM)Todor Wrote:  When the argument shifts to hoping for Russias demographic collapse 100 years from now, you know you’re in trouble.

Ukraine is toast. We can keep throwing good money after bad or not. I’d say it’s up to the American people, but we all know it really isn’t.

But the United States of Madoff is going to run out of new investors soon.

The Russians have been driven out of half the territory they had gained in the first few weeks of the war. They are desperately rounding up anyone they can for the military.
And Ukraine is toast? How much Vodka did you drink this morning, comrade?

(09-23-2022 04:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-23-2022 03:43 PM)Todor Wrote:  When the argument shifts to hoping for Russias demographic collapse 100 years from now, you know you’re in trouble.

Ukraine is toast. We can keep throwing good money after bad or not. I’d say it’s up to the American people, but we all know it really isn’t.

But the United States of Madoff is going to run out of new investors soon.

The Russians have been driven out of half the territory they had gained in the first few weeks of the war. They are desperately rounding up anyone they can for the military.
And Ukraine is toast? How much Vodka did you drink this morning, comrade?

No vodka---just Kool-Aid. Lots and lots of Kool-Aid.

(09-23-2022 01:10 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-23-2022 11:10 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 08:30 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I see mobilization is going well.

Putin's nuts are in a vise. But people leaving Russia because of the mobilization may help him take care of part of the backlash. Plus, it's being said, that arrested protesters are being forced into the Russian military. The wild card here will be the Russian mothers. Do they take to the streets?

Doesnt matter. Those unwilling call ups will get maybe a week of training at most (many wont even get that) and be sent directly to the front lines. When they get there, their primary motivation will not be territorial acquisition for "Mother Russia"---it will be preserving their own life so they can see their mothers again. Surrender and retreat will be familiar outcomes for these unmotivated Russian units that do not represent trained professional career military types. This move is an act of forced desperation. Putin is running out of cards to play where he remains in control of Russia when the conflict is settled.

Possibly but it also could be more complicated. I really doubt they'll be whole units of untrained soldiers. But who knows it's the Russians after all. Second I understand they were blocking soldiers for those who want to retreat when retreat isn't one of the available options. So shoot or get shot by one of your own. And to support that last point there is the link.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fi...s?ref=home

(09-23-2022 03:47 AM)Todor Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 01:20 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 08:13 PM)Todor Wrote:  

(09-21-2022 07:26 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  What a monumental waste of $$$ that we don't have.

We should have stayed completely out of it. Not our business.

But, even in this forum, you have those who continually cheer on every war the US starts as some kind of essential fight for our own survival and point to all the great news it really is.

They don’t care what the cost is. They don’t care if we have the money. The only care about carrying out a globalist agenda based in hypotheticals. Sure, let’s spend all of our money not only burning our bridges, but burning the rest of the worlds too. It’s not gonna be pretty when it stops working because more and more people hate us every day for the crap we go around pulling on people.

Sure, there are certainly people who reflexively cheer on every war the US is in. Just like there are people who reflexively cheer against the US in every war.

However, I think you're mistaken if you think anyone sees this as a fight for US survival. This is a low-cost investment to keep our self-declared enemies as far away from us as possible and to increase certainty for American investors (such as US pension funds that provide middle-class retirement savings) who invest in our close European allies.

And yes, $50 billion is low-cost. $50 billion is less than 1% of our federal budget. It's 0.2% of our GDP.

We're not dirt-poor Russians who have the same GDP/capita as Costa Rica. A country whose average income is 1/4 of the poorest state in the USA. $50 billion is a drop in the bucket for us.

No, we’re not “dirt poor Russians” who pay their bills. We’re the economic genius country that is 32 TRILLION in debt. The country with no savings, no money put aside, no sovereign wealth fund and completely unfounded social security and retirement systems.

Laugh all you want at Russia, but remove 32 TRLION from the US and see what IT looks like. That will be the real America. That will be what we are really worth. And it won’t be pretty.

Those who live in Ponzi schemes shouldn’t give economics lessons.

The yield on a 30 year US treasury bond is 3.62% right now. With inflation at 9%, this means investors would rather lose 5.4% per year for the next 30(!) years than invest in another country.

For reference, the yield on a similar Russian government bond is 11.02%.


When your argument shifts to the same predictions of long-term collapse of sovereign bond markets that French mercantilists were saying about Britain 15 years before Britain's eventual triumph in the Napoleonic Wars, you know you've lost...

The voice of the Kremlin points fingers.

(09-26-2022 01:34 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  The voice of the Kremlin points fingers.

so they have free speech. interesting

(09-26-2022 01:59 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(09-26-2022 01:34 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  The voice of the Kremlin points fingers.

so they have free speech. interesting

They have always been free to say its not Putin's fault.

(09-26-2022 02:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-26-2022 01:59 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(09-26-2022 01:34 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  The voice of the Kremlin points fingers.

so they have free speech. interesting

They have always been free to say its not Putin's fault.

On top of that freedom of speech... the Russians are showing they want every vote to count. Concerning the referendums, da Russian soldiers are going door to door ...Gathering votes... and in some cases, when ballots run out, they are accepting oral votes. Now how's that for honesty? Integrity? Fairness? Love of democracy? I suspect the turnout is going to be huge. I eagerly await the outcome.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-cong...022-09-26/


In response to a request from the Biden administration, the funding would include $4.5 billion to provide defense capabilities and equipment for Ukraine, as well as $2.7 billion to continue military, intelligence and other defense support, said the sources, who asked not to be identified ahead of the announcement.



12 more Billion


Idiots

The only thing that will overthrow Putin is if he becomes a prohibitionist. No, that’s not a joke.

Understand that ShereKlan has mailed in his 666 Russian referendum ballots

(09-26-2022 09:40 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  Understand that ShereKlan has mailed in his 666 Russian referendum ballots

It’s more fun when the salt comes from seemingly nowhere—like your comment.