(08-17-2022 02:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 02:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I see it differently, all the media providers have bid themselves close to their limits, even though the B1G wants to go bigger. Wilner here seems to be saying FOX is tapped out. ESPN balked at $380M share. NBC just blew up their budget, going from about $22M they will pay Notre Dame this year to over $350M for the B1G. CBS got their game of the week for $350M after getting edged by ESPN for similar money for the SEC rights (that's $330M or more ESPN doesn't have lying around anymore).

So while they want to expand more, and NBC may want Notre Dame, you have to wonder how much money is left in the piggy bank. B1G may want to add the rest of the west coast, but I doubt FOX wants to part with another $150M annually to give these schools half shares. FS1 really doesn't need 10:00pm games, and not much point in competing with NBA for the 7:30pm slots.

Everybody is squeezed right now.

Does anybody understand what "truly aligned" is supposed to mean?

I take it to mean the combination of power plus geography plus brands, it can't be touched. When their next media deal is done the money may be better than tthe B1G too.

(08-17-2022 02:29 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 02:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 02:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I see it differently, all the media providers have bid themselves close to their limits, even though the B1G wants to go bigger. Wilner here seems to be saying FOX is tapped out. ESPN balked at $380M share. NBC just blew up their budget, going from about $22M they will pay Notre Dame this year to over $350M for the B1G. CBS got their game of the week for $350M after getting edged by ESPN for similar money for the SEC rights (that's $330M or more ESPN doesn't have lying around anymore).

So while they want to expand more, and NBC may want Notre Dame, you have to wonder how much money is left in the piggy bank. B1G may want to add the rest of the west coast, but I doubt FOX wants to part with another $150M annually to give these schools half shares. FS1 really doesn't need 10:00pm games, and not much point in competing with NBA for the 7:30pm slots.

Everybody is squeezed right now.

Does anybody understand what "truly aligned" is supposed to mean?

I take it to mean the combination of power plus geography plus brands, it can't be touched. When their next media deal is done the money may be better than tthe B1G too.

I'm very sure johnbragg had it right:

"Probably that everybody in the SEC corridors of power is pretty united on what they're going to do and not do."

Plus ESPN pretty happy with the SEC too.

(08-17-2022 02:41 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 02:29 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 02:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 02:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I see it differently, all the media providers have bid themselves close to their limits, even though the B1G wants to go bigger. Wilner here seems to be saying FOX is tapped out. ESPN balked at $380M share. NBC just blew up their budget, going from about $22M they will pay Notre Dame this year to over $350M for the B1G. CBS got their game of the week for $350M after getting edged by ESPN for similar money for the SEC rights (that's $330M or more ESPN doesn't have lying around anymore).

So while they want to expand more, and NBC may want Notre Dame, you have to wonder how much money is left in the piggy bank. B1G may want to add the rest of the west coast, but I doubt FOX wants to part with another $150M annually to give these schools half shares. FS1 really doesn't need 10:00pm games, and not much point in competing with NBA for the 7:30pm slots.

Everybody is squeezed right now.

Does anybody understand what "truly aligned" is supposed to mean?

I take it to mean the combination of power plus geography plus brands, it can't be touched. When their next media deal is done the money may be better than tthe B1G too.

I'm very sure johnbragg had it right:

"Probably that everybody in the SEC corridors of power is pretty united on what they're going to do and not do."

Plus ESPN pretty happy with the SEC too.

Of course the SEC is aligned, they don't have any options RE valuable schools to add until the ACC GOR gets closer. What can they do?? Nothing, so they are "aligned".

The B1G has many MANY options. "OR/WA, STAN/CAL, all four RIGHT NOW, all four in 6 years, only STAN for now, what's ND saying??, KU & STAN, what about Colorado??", etc etc etc.

The SEC doesn't really have those kinds of decisions to deal with, thus, they are aligned..."we wait until CLEM & FSU & UNC are available - OK boss!"

The SEC could add CO/AU right now if they wanted to, or all 4 corners. The point is they don't have to wait until 2034-35' and there are valuable brands than can fill a late night spot for ESPN without having make a separate Big 12 bid.

You have to imagine CO/AU will be targeted by the B1G at some point in the next 15-20 years, unless they land every possible blue chip in the ACC+ND. We talk about GaTech and FSU to the B1G to establish a new footprint, but we don't talk about the S"E"C pushing their Manifest Destiny limits.

I'm not saying it makes sense to do this, but if the PAC4 are moved to the B1G, ESPN has to acquire at least partial Big 12. And while Fox can utilize the PAC4 for their late night FS1, they may feel the need to supplement it with partial Big 12 plus 4 corners. It could become a bloody bidding war, where the trump card is ESPN moving 4 corners to the SEC, killing Big 12 western expansion and forcing Fox to put B1G Pacific games in the late window on FS1.

(08-17-2022 06:54 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The SEC could add CO/AU right now if they wanted to, or all 4 corners. The point is they don't have to wait until 2034-35' and there are valuable brands than can fill a late night spot for ESPN without having make a separate Big 12 bid.

You have to imagine CO/AU will be targeted by the B1G at some point in the next 15-20 years, unless they land every possible blue chip in the ACC+ND. We talk about GaTech and FSU to the B1G to establish a new footprint, but we don't talk about the S"E"C pushing their Manifest Destiny limits.

I'm not saying it makes sense to do this, but if the PAC4 are moved to the B1G, ESPN has to acquire at least partial Big 12. And while Fox can utilize the PAC4 for their late night FS1, they may feel the need to supplement it with partial Big 12 plus 4 corners. It could become a bloody bidding war, where the trump card is ESPN moving 4 corners to the SEC, killing Big 12 western expansion and forcing Fox to put B1G Pacific games in the late window on FS1.

The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

The SEC doesnt need AU. Auburn is already in the SEC.

The SEC doesnt need anyone from the Mountain or Pacific time zones.

They might want Clemson, FSU and UNC.

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't buy this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

I wouldn't expect Miami in the first 4 of either the SEC or the B1G. And I'm not sure the SEC has them very high up, except as a defensive move. 3 schools from one state is a lot. ND/PAC aside..I'd put it as follows as far as their respective Top 4 WISH LISTS. Miami would be in everyone's 5-8 and possibly required for the B1G to make FSU not prefer SEC.

SEC: FSU/Clemson/UNC/VT or UVA
B1G: FSU/GT/UNC/UVA

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

I don't care what you buy or not. It is still a priority. The SEC adds for regional cohesion and when it spreads it does so contiguously. Kansas to Colorado is at least conceivable given ESPN may want the Denver market and ESPN has given Kansas a favorable T3.

I can concede your point on Miami since it would be a huge travel outlier for even its division mates and because its culture is unique and not Deep South per se. But it's in a greater market ESPN may crave more than the SEC.

The issue with Georgia Tech is Atlanta which is host to the SEC championship and Tech was in the original SEC and has ties which are deep, and the Ga legislature requested UGa sponsor them for SEC membership in 2011. Atlanta isn't a demographic the SEC will share, period, and I'm very dialed in on this. Imagine if TCU was AAU. There's no way the SEC leaves the B1G an entry to DFW.

The biggest issue facing the SEC's choices in the event of ACC movement is do we take N.C. State to get UNC? The SEC would be very content with Virginia Tech, and other than UNC insisting on UVa, Tech would be our choice.

So, if the SEC landed FSU and needed to take a second NC school to land UNC (which ESPN will insist upon) I can see Miami being available, but only if we expand West as well, and in doing so take more than just Kansas.

I suspect ESPN will pick up the Big 12's rights and use them for merging with PAC schools not taken by the Big 10.

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

About the bolded, I agree. I don't think Miami and Georgia Tech are important to the SEC.

My belief is that the top four schools the SEC would want would be UNC, FSU, Clemson and UVA. Duke would be next after them.

I also don't think the SEC feels the need to have a west coast outpost either. As JR notes, the SEC expands within its footprint, or contiguously.

(08-17-2022 07:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

I don't care what you buy or not. It is still a priority. The SEC adds for regional cohesion and when it spreads it does so contiguously. Kansas to Colorado is at least conceivable given ESPN may want the Denver market and ESPN has given Kansas a favorable T3.

I can concede your point on Miami since it would be a huge travel outlier for even its division mates and because its culture is unique and not Deep South per se. But it's in a greater market ESPN may crave more than the SEC.

The issue with Georgia Tech is Atlanta which is host to the SEC championship and Tech was in the original SEC and has ties which are deep, and the Ga legislature requested UGa sponsor them for SEC membership in 2011. Atlanta isn't a demographic the SEC will share, period, and I'm very dialed in on this. Imagine if TCU was AAU. There's no way the SEC leaves the B1G an entry to DFW.

The biggest issue facing the SEC's choices in the event of ACC movement is do we take N.C. State to get UNC? The SEC would be very content with Virginia Tech, and other than UNC insisting on UVa, Tech would be our choice.

So, if the SEC landed FSU and needed to take a second NC school to land UNC (which ESPN will insist upon) I can see Miami being available, but only if we expand West as well, and in doing so take more than just Kansas.

I suspect ESPN will pick up the Big 12's rights and use them for merging with PAC schools not taken by the Big 10.

Interesting stuff, as always JR. But why would GT want to be even more in UGA's direct shadow than it is already? I suppose ACC membership didn't improve things so the Jackets have no reason to believe the B1G will either. If nothing else, the SEC offers closer road trips and a home game in ATL for the SEC title if they ever get there. There...I may have answered my own question!

(08-17-2022 08:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

About the bolded, I agree. I don't think Miami and Georgia Tech are important to the SEC.

My belief is that the top four ACC schools the SEC would want would be UNC, FSU, Clemson and UVA. Duke would be next after them.

And you would be wrong, as usual. There is no way the Big 10 gets Atlanta. The SEC had a plan to go to 24, mostly in defense of branding and Deep South markets going back to 1990. Nothing has changed. FSU, Clemson and Georgia Tech are part of it. ESPN has been made well aware of the priority. Numbers won't be an issue. Really the only target to the West the SEC will be watching is Kansas. Free hoops from the NCAA and their valuation explodes upward and paired with Kentucky that's money. I think the SEC would be intrigued with Denver but would take a cultural pass. And UVa doesn't have the numbers and gets in only if UNC insists and then at the expense of a worthier Virginia Tech.

In 2011 UNC's request was if the ACC fell apart could they bring Duke. Slive was said to have given a yes. Now we hear N.C. State is the request. With UNC and N.C. State I don't see Duke as a full member, but should Vandy drop down I can see Vanderbilt, Duke, and Wake Forest possibly being our first all but football members. Who knows that 4th slot could go to Tulane or Rice.

(08-17-2022 08:06 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

I don't care what you buy or not. It is still a priority. The SEC adds for regional cohesion and when it spreads it does so contiguously. Kansas to Colorado is at least conceivable given ESPN may want the Denver market and ESPN has given Kansas a favorable T3.

I can concede your point on Miami since it would be a huge travel outlier for even its division mates and because its culture is unique and not Deep South per se. But it's in a greater market ESPN may crave more than the SEC.

The issue with Georgia Tech is Atlanta which is host to the SEC championship and Tech was in the original SEC and has ties which are deep, and the Ga legislature requested UGa sponsor them for SEC membership in 2011. Atlanta isn't a demographic the SEC will share, period, and I'm very dialed in on this. Imagine if TCU was AAU. There's no way the SEC leaves the B1G an entry to DFW.

The biggest issue facing the SEC's choices in the event of ACC movement is do we take N.C. State to get UNC? The SEC would be very content with Virginia Tech, and other than UNC insisting on UVa, Tech would be our choice.

So, if the SEC landed FSU and needed to take a second NC school to land UNC (which ESPN will insist upon) I can see Miami being available, but only if we expand West as well, and in doing so take more than just Kansas.

I suspect ESPN will pick up the Big 12's rights and use them for merging with PAC schools not taken by the Big 10.

Interesting stuff, as always JR. But why would GT want to be even more in UGA's direct shadow than it is already? I suppose ACC membership didn't improve things so the Jackets have no reason to believe the B1G will either. If nothing else, the SEC offers closer road trips and a home game in ATL for the SEC title if they ever get there. There...I may have answered my own question!

Why?

1. Larger home crowds.
2. Greater Donor interest.
3. Auburn (was the oldest rivalry in the South until 1978 played 1892-1978)
4. Baseball & minor sports. Baseball is a big deal in the SEC & ACC. Minor sports are much closer. 90 minutes to Athens, just under 2 hours to Auburn, and not much farther to South Carolina and Clemson, and under 3 hours to Knoxville.

(08-17-2022 08:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  About the bolded, I agree. I don't think Miami and Georgia Tech are important to the SEC.

My belief is that the top four schools the SEC would want would be UNC, FSU, Clemson and UVA. Duke would be next after them.

I also don't think the SEC feels the need to have a west coast outpost either. As JR notes, the SEC expands within its footprint, or contiguously.

KU/CO is a better 1-2 punch than VaTech NC State or GaTech Miami if the schools move tomorrow. You have a BBall blue blood and a fast growing market, whereas Miami/NCSU are waning programs in peripheral markets. We certainly would not see 24 team SEC expansion that adds NCSU VaTech GaTech Miami on top of FSU/Clemson.

If the SEC had to move tomorrow and UNC/UVa/Duke are unavailable, in order, it's:

1. FSU
2. Clemson
3. VaTech
4. KU
5. Colorado
6. GaTech
7/8. Miami/NCSU
9. TTech/OSU/AU

What's going to end up happening (highest probability scenario) is ESPN overpays and moves FSU/Clemson/UNC/Duke together as a bloc into the SEC a few years prior to the GoR expirations. UVa is out.

The B1G, with no possible counters, add the remaining PAC4 (if they haven't already done so). UVa and GaTech become the new UO and UW, viable only if ND joins the B1G with them. The ACC will scrap by with the ten remaining schools similar to the PAC of today.

(08-17-2022 08:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 08:06 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The first priority of SEC Presidents expressed in 1990 and still supported is to protect the conferences core footprint and brand. In an 8 school expansion the first four slots used on the ACC would go to Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Like it or not that is reality. Then we would expend 2 slots for a North Carolina and Virginia school.

The question in the interim is with Kansas and Colorado hanging out there (the #2 earning hoops brand to match with #1 Kentucky) and the Denver market is would the SEC expend two more bids to the West before movement on the ACC? At ESPN's behest possibly. Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas would have to be comfortable to be together and Texas gets along well enough with each.

See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

I don't care what you buy or not. It is still a priority. The SEC adds for regional cohesion and when it spreads it does so contiguously. Kansas to Colorado is at least conceivable given ESPN may want the Denver market and ESPN has given Kansas a favorable T3.

I can concede your point on Miami since it would be a huge travel outlier for even its division mates and because its culture is unique and not Deep South per se. But it's in a greater market ESPN may crave more than the SEC.

The issue with Georgia Tech is Atlanta which is host to the SEC championship and Tech was in the original SEC and has ties which are deep, and the Ga legislature requested UGa sponsor them for SEC membership in 2011. Atlanta isn't a demographic the SEC will share, period, and I'm very dialed in on this. Imagine if TCU was AAU. There's no way the SEC leaves the B1G an entry to DFW.

The biggest issue facing the SEC's choices in the event of ACC movement is do we take N.C. State to get UNC? The SEC would be very content with Virginia Tech, and other than UNC insisting on UVa, Tech would be our choice.

So, if the SEC landed FSU and needed to take a second NC school to land UNC (which ESPN will insist upon) I can see Miami being available, but only if we expand West as well, and in doing so take more than just Kansas.

I suspect ESPN will pick up the Big 12's rights and use them for merging with PAC schools not taken by the Big 10.

Interesting stuff, as always JR. But why would GT want to be even more in UGA's direct shadow than it is already? I suppose ACC membership didn't improve things so the Jackets have no reason to believe the B1G will either. If nothing else, the SEC offers closer road trips and a home game in ATL for the SEC title if they ever get there. There...I may have answered my own question!

Why?

1. Larger home crowds.
2. Greater Donor interest.
3. Auburn (was the oldest rivalry in the South until 1978 played 1892-1978)
4. Baseball & minor sports. Baseball is a big deal in the SEC & ACC. Minor sports are much closer. 90 minutes to Athens, just under 2 hours to Auburn, and not much farther to South Carolina and Clemson, and under 3 hours to Knoxville.

That all makes perfect sense. But I still see it as FSU-Clemson-UNC-VT/UVA as the Top 4 for the SEC. I don't see Miami until 5-8. Same with GT. They can afford to wait on both of those for different reasons. Splitting hairs, perhaps.

(08-17-2022 08:43 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 08:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 08:06 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 07:31 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  See, I don't by this. Your points may have been relevant 15-20 years ago. I don't think the SEC fights tooth and nail for Miami and GaTech if the B1G is after them. Protecting FSU may be enough to deter the B1G from poaching the leftover southeastern schools. But that's only due to the fallout of losing out on a blue chip like FSU (similar to how nobody wanted the leftover Big 12 teams after OUT, but at half the scale).

FSU/Clemson aside, there are potentially 2-6 more slots. If it's capped at 20 schools then fine, but what if UNC/UVa/Duke go to the B1G? Do you add VaTech or do you look at KU? CO? Utah would stand alone in the SEC as well. They don't have to expand school for school with the B1G, but would they stand pat after leading conference expansion for 10 plus years running?

KU looks attractive in the SEC. The pair of KU/OSU is possibly more attractive than VaTech/NCState. That's still only 20 schools. You could still have room for CO/AU. GaTech/Miami is last resort. VaTech/NC State is just as likely for 23/24, but certainly not top 20.

I don't care what you buy or not. It is still a priority. The SEC adds for regional cohesion and when it spreads it does so contiguously. Kansas to Colorado is at least conceivable given ESPN may want the Denver market and ESPN has given Kansas a favorable T3.

I can concede your point on Miami since it would be a huge travel outlier for even its division mates and because its culture is unique and not Deep South per se. But it's in a greater market ESPN may crave more than the SEC.

The issue with Georgia Tech is Atlanta which is host to the SEC championship and Tech was in the original SEC and has ties which are deep, and the Ga legislature requested UGa sponsor them for SEC membership in 2011. Atlanta isn't a demographic the SEC will share, period, and I'm very dialed in on this. Imagine if TCU was AAU. There's no way the SEC leaves the B1G an entry to DFW.

The biggest issue facing the SEC's choices in the event of ACC movement is do we take N.C. State to get UNC? The SEC would be very content with Virginia Tech, and other than UNC insisting on UVa, Tech would be our choice.

So, if the SEC landed FSU and needed to take a second NC school to land UNC (which ESPN will insist upon) I can see Miami being available, but only if we expand West as well, and in doing so take more than just Kansas.

I suspect ESPN will pick up the Big 12's rights and use them for merging with PAC schools not taken by the Big 10.

Interesting stuff, as always JR. But why would GT want to be even more in UGA's direct shadow than it is already? I suppose ACC membership didn't improve things so the Jackets have no reason to believe the B1G will either. If nothing else, the SEC offers closer road trips and a home game in ATL for the SEC title if they ever get there. There...I may have answered my own question!

Why?

1. Larger home crowds.
2. Greater Donor interest.
3. Auburn (was the oldest rivalry in the South until 1978 played 1892-1978)
4. Baseball & minor sports. Baseball is a big deal in the SEC & ACC. Minor sports are much closer. 90 minutes to Athens, just under 2 hours to Auburn, and not much farther to South Carolina and Clemson, and under 3 hours to Knoxville.

That all makes perfect sense. But I still see it as FSU-Clemson-UNC-VT/UVA as the Top 4 for the SEC. I don't see Miami until 5-8. Same with GT. They can afford to wait on both of those for different reasons. Splitting hairs, perhaps.

It depends on who shows interest and when. If the B1G was making a run at UVa, Duke, Ga Tech and Miami under the assumption the SEC was taking FSU, Clemson, UNC and Va Tech then I think the response is that the SEC goes big at once.

Clemson, FSU, Ga Tech, Miami, UNC, a Virginia school, Kansas and then maybe a 2nd North Carolina school (UNC condition), or Louisville (top 15 revenue generator), or Colorado (market). Losing Duke or Virginia to the Big 10 wouldn't be a big deal if we had the #1 draw in both states and it would help with the parsing.

(08-17-2022 08:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-17-2022 08:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  About the bolded, I agree. I don't think Miami and Georgia Tech are important to the SEC.

My belief is that the top four schools the SEC would want would be UNC, FSU, Clemson and UVA. Duke would be next after them.

I also don't think the SEC feels the need to have a west coast outpost either. As JR notes, the SEC expands within its footprint, or contiguously.

KU/CO is a better 1-2 punch than VaTech NC State or GaTech Miami if the schools move tomorrow. You have a BBall blue blood and a fast growing market, whereas Miami/NCSU are waning programs in peripheral markets. We certainly would not see 24 team SEC expansion that adds NCSU VaTech GaTech Miami on top of FSU/Clemson.

If the SEC had to move tomorrow and UNC/UVa/Duke are unavailable, in order, it's:

1. FSU
2. Clemson
3. VaTech
4. KU
5. Colorado
6. GaTech
7/8. Miami/NCSU
9. TTech/OSU/AU

What's going to end up happening (highest probability scenario) is ESPN overpays and moves FSU/Clemson/UNC/Duke together as a bloc into the SEC a few years prior to the GoR expirations. UVa is out.

The B1G, with no possible counters, add the remaining PAC4 (if they haven't already done so). UVa and GaTech become the new UO and UW, viable only if ND joins the B1G with them. The ACC will scrap by with the ten remaining schools similar to the PAC of today.

IMO, the SEC will only possibly add the first two schools on your rundown, Clemson and FSU. I don't think any school below them ever gets added.

Maybe we'll see.

Vandy/Duke/WF/Rice as affiliates makes a lot of sense. The only thing is cannot imagine the royalties that they'd have to pay Vandy for dropping out in football into a lower FBS league.

But then you can slide UNC VaTech/UVa for 20-team football with those four affiliates? Wow...

(08-17-2022 09:08 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Vandy/Duke/WF/Rice as affiliates makes a lot of sense. The only thing is cannot imagine the royalties that they'd have to pay Vandy for dropping out in football into a lower FBS league.

But then you can slide UNC VaTech/UVa for 20-team football with those four affiliates? Wow...

Nashville has grown up around the Vanderbilt campus. Space is now their most valuable asset. They need more room for research and have a football stadium which hasn't been renovated since 1981. It will be a question of priorities and such a membership may provide a solution. We'll see.

(08-16-2022 10:53 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-16-2022 10:42 AM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  

(08-16-2022 10:20 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  I've felt like ND's goals the past 2 months have been:

* Maintain football Independence
* Rework a TV contract that they can live with.
* Keep access to the CFP.

They can always just play the SEC against the B1G to make sure they have CFP access. "If you don't allow us to have access to the CFP, we will join the SEC (or B1G)." ND can maintain independence as long as they are happy with their TV money and have access to the CFP.

Joining the SEC is an empty threat. They wouldn't be able to stomach being academically-linked to some of those schools.

Yeah - it's one thing to refer to the SEC money, but it's a largely empty threat from an institutional standpoint.

The biggest reason why ND remains independent is because they truly believe that they *are* singularly special. They think they're above even Michigan and calling it a diploma mill, so just imagine how they look at the SEC schools. No one should mistake aligned football interests (which might be the case between ND and the SEC) with ND caring whatsoever about joining them as a conference member.

To be sure, I don't think ND is joining the Big Ten, either. I'm pretty firm that they'll continue independence as long as their TV money is simply in the ballpark of the Big Ten and SEC.

Those are such outdated views.

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