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(07-31-2022 03:56 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Thus far, the Mike Moustakas acquisition hasn't panned out. He signed a four year $64M deal in 2020. He's battled some injuries but I would argue he needs to work on losing a few pounds. His power numbers have steadily declined since his last season with Milwaukee [2019 All-Star].

2019
143 G / .254 BA / .329 OBP / .516 SLG / 35 HR / 87 RBI / 53 BB

2020 [COVID Year]
44 G / .230 BA / .331 OBP / .468 SLG / 8 HR / 27 RBI / 18 BB

2021
62 G / .208 BA / .282 OBP / .372 SLG / 6 HR / 22 RBI / 18 BB

2022
68 G / .206 BA / .293 OBP / .339 SLG / 6 HR / 21 RBI / 22 BB

I guess you can argue that if you project his numbers over the course of a full season then maybe they get closer to his 2019 season. The 2020 COVID year is probably the best example for this. That said, his current season and the fact he will turn 34 in September doesn't bode well for 2023.

There's really no defense of Moose as a Red. You can give him a tiny asterisk for injuries and Covid but the 2020 Covid season was actually his best as a Red and he still wasn't very good.

Unfortunately, the Reds are stuck with him as he has a huge negative value overall given his contract. At this point, the Reds don't really have any options other than to hope he finds a way to rebound at least somewhat later this season or next.

(08-02-2022 06:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 05:58 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  So, let's do a rundown of the trades beginning with Naquin [MLB Prospect Rankings #30 & Higher]...

July 28
Mets Get: OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Phillip Diehl
Reds Get: 2B Hector Rodriguez, RHP Jose Acuna

July 29
Mariners Get: RHP Luis Castillo
Reds Get: SS Noelvi Marte [#1], SS Edwin Arroyo [#3], RHP Levi Stoudt [#5], RHP Andrew Moore

Aug 1
Red Sox Get: OF Tommy Pham
Reds Get: TBD

Aug 2
Twins Get: RHP Tyler Mahle
Reds Get: INF Spencer Steer [#7], LHP Steve Hajjar [#18], INF Christian Encarnacion-Strand [#23]

Padres Get: INF Brandon Drury
Reds Get: SS Victor Acosta [#6]

Cardinals Get: Cash
Reds Get: C Austin Romine

I can imagine how good in two years the starters of Mahle, Castillo, Green, Lodolo and Aschraft could have been.

The fly in the ointment is that you've got to give Mahle and especially Castillo lengthy huge guaranteed contracts in less than a season and a half or they will leave anyway of their own accord and you get very little (not especially high valuable draft picks at best) for them. I'm a big fan of both Mahle and Castillo but when you consider the risks (e.g. arm injuries, regression) inherent in those types of contracts for starting pitchers in or near their 30's it just doesn't make sense for a team in a market like the Reds regardless of who owns the team.

Mahle probably would come a little cheaper as it now stands but as a flyball pitcher, he's more valuable for a team that plays in a bigger ballpark rather than GABP. Trading them was (unfortunately in my opinion) the right move under the MLB system.

Of course they won't all pan out, but the impartial "expert" reviews all seem to be pretty impressed with the quality and quantity of prospects the Reds received in the deals the OP detailed.

(07-31-2022 04:13 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  After a disappointing series split with the Marlins, a nice series win today against the Orange Birds. Lodolo and Drury do their part. I really dig the upside of the 6 ft 6 in, 24 year old lefty.

L10 6-4
L20 12-8
L30 16-14

Shoot, maybe I'll break out my Reds cap soon...

So, the Redlegs have quietly won four in a row and go for a road series sweep in Florida tonight. We know this better side of the base path won't last due to all the moves they've made over the past week but damn it's more fun when they're winning.

L10 7-3
L20 13-7

(08-03-2022 03:36 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 05:58 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  So, let's do a rundown of the trades beginning with Naquin [MLB Prospect Rankings #30 & Higher]...

July 28
Mets Get: OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Phillip Diehl
Reds Get: 2B Hector Rodriguez, RHP Jose Acuna

July 29
Mariners Get: RHP Luis Castillo
Reds Get: SS Noelvi Marte [#1], SS Edwin Arroyo [#3], RHP Levi Stoudt [#5], RHP Andrew Moore

Aug 1
Red Sox Get: OF Tommy Pham
Reds Get: TBD

Aug 2
Twins Get: RHP Tyler Mahle
Reds Get: INF Spencer Steer [#7], LHP Steve Hajjar [#18], INF Christian Encarnacion-Strand [#23]

Padres Get: INF Brandon Drury
Reds Get: SS Victor Acosta [#6]

Cardinals Get: Cash
Reds Get: C Austin Romine

I can imagine how good in two years the starters of Mahle, Castillo, Green, Lodolo and Aschraft could have been.

The fly in the ointment is that you've got to give Mahle and especially Castillo lengthy huge guaranteed contracts in less than a season and a half or they will leave anyway of their own accord and you get very little (not especially high valuable draft picks at best) for them. I'm a big fan of both Mahle and Castillo but when you consider the risks (e.g. arm injuries, regression) inherent in those types of contracts for starting pitchers in or near their 30's it just doesn't make sense for a team in a market like the Reds regardless of who owns the team.

Mahle probably would come a little cheaper as it now stands but as a flyball pitcher, he's more valuable for a team that plays in a bigger ballpark rather than GABP. Trading them was (unfortunately in my opinion) the right move under the MLB system.

Of course they won't all pan out, but the impartial "expert" reviews all seem to be pretty impressed with the quality and quantity of prospects the Reds received in the deals the OP detailed.

Got a lot of potential. Potential means they have not done it. Baseball is the hardest sport to predict future performance.

(08-03-2022 06:03 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 03:36 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  I can imagine how good in two years the starters of Mahle, Castillo, Green, Lodolo and Aschraft could have been.

The fly in the ointment is that you've got to give Mahle and especially Castillo lengthy huge guaranteed contracts in less than a season and a half or they will leave anyway of their own accord and you get very little (not especially high valuable draft picks at best) for them. I'm a big fan of both Mahle and Castillo but when you consider the risks (e.g. arm injuries, regression) inherent in those types of contracts for starting pitchers in or near their 30's it just doesn't make sense for a team in a market like the Reds regardless of who owns the team.

Mahle probably would come a little cheaper as it now stands but as a flyball pitcher, he's more valuable for a team that plays in a bigger ballpark rather than GABP. Trading them was (unfortunately in my opinion) the right move under the MLB system.

Of course they won't all pan out, but the impartial "expert" reviews all seem to be pretty impressed with the quality and quantity of prospects the Reds received in the deals the OP detailed.

Got a lot of potential. Potential means they have not done it. Baseball is the hardest sport to predict future performance.

Baseball is up there for sure. But potential is by definition basically applicable to anything in the future. Everybody (including me) would have been thrilled if they had re-signed a powerhouse vet like Castellanos last offseason based upon his performance. This year he has an OPS+ of 89. Maybe he'll turn it around, but you just never know even with veterans somewhat regardless of age (FWIW Castellanos turned 30 in March and got a $100M five-year deal and I only picked him as an example due to recent familiarity.) And pitchers (e.g. Castillo, Mahle) are probably the most unpredictable of all in my opinion.

(08-03-2022 03:36 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 05:58 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  So, let's do a rundown of the trades beginning with Naquin [MLB Prospect Rankings #30 & Higher]...

July 28
Mets Get: OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Phillip Diehl
Reds Get: 2B Hector Rodriguez, RHP Jose Acuna

July 29
Mariners Get: RHP Luis Castillo
Reds Get: SS Noelvi Marte [#1], SS Edwin Arroyo [#3], RHP Levi Stoudt [#5], RHP Andrew Moore

Aug 1
Red Sox Get: OF Tommy Pham
Reds Get: TBD

Aug 2
Twins Get: RHP Tyler Mahle
Reds Get: INF Spencer Steer [#7], LHP Steve Hajjar [#18], INF Christian Encarnacion-Strand [#23]

Padres Get: INF Brandon Drury
Reds Get: SS Victor Acosta [#6]

Cardinals Get: Cash
Reds Get: C Austin Romine

I can imagine how good in two years the starters of Mahle, Castillo, Green, Lodolo and Aschraft could have been.

The fly in the ointment is that you've got to give Mahle and especially Castillo lengthy huge guaranteed contracts in less than a season and a half or they will leave anyway of their own accord and you get very little (not especially high valuable draft picks at best) for them. I'm a big fan of both Mahle and Castillo but when you consider the risks (e.g. arm injuries, regression) inherent in those types of contracts for starting pitchers in or near their 30's it just doesn't make sense for a team in a market like the Reds regardless of who owns the team.

Mahle probably would come a little cheaper as it now stands but as a flyball pitcher, he's more valuable for a team that plays in a bigger ballpark rather than GABP. Trading them was (unfortunately in my opinion) the right move under the MLB system.

Of course they won't all pan out, but the impartial "expert" reviews all seem to be pretty impressed with the quality and quantity of prospects the Reds received in the deals the OP detailed.

I would have probably signed Mahle, but who knows what he was asking. The return was just ok, and I think his style of pitching works long term. I'm usually all for dumping expiring contracts, but this was one of the few exceptions. Hopefully, I'm wrong.

(08-04-2022 05:44 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 03:36 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  The fly in the ointment is that you've got to give Mahle and especially Castillo lengthy huge guaranteed contracts in less than a season and a half or they will leave anyway of their own accord and you get very little (not especially high valuable draft picks at best) for them. I'm a big fan of both Mahle and Castillo but when you consider the risks (e.g. arm injuries, regression) inherent in those types of contracts for starting pitchers in or near their 30's it just doesn't make sense for a team in a market like the Reds regardless of who owns the team.

Mahle probably would come a little cheaper as it now stands but as a flyball pitcher, he's more valuable for a team that plays in a bigger ballpark rather than GABP. Trading them was (unfortunately in my opinion) the right move under the MLB system.

Of course they won't all pan out, but the impartial "expert" reviews all seem to be pretty impressed with the quality and quantity of prospects the Reds received in the deals the OP detailed.

I would have probably signed Mahle, but who knows what he was asking. The return was just ok, and I think his style of pitching works long term. I'm usually all for dumping expiring contracts, but this was one of the few exceptions. Hopefully, I'm wrong.

I kinda felt that way earlier this season myself when the trade talks were just beginning to get attention and depending upon the terms, I would have been fine with extending him. I think there may be even more untapped talent in Mahle going forward relative to what it hypothetically might take to extend him (whereas I don't necessarily think Castillo can pitch much better than he is right now for example.) I also liked the idea of having him to hopefully mentor the young rookie pitfchers at least through the end of the season and maybe re-evaluating signing or trading him this off-season (since he would still be under control through next season.)

I think what tipped the scales the other way for me though were his home/away splits. For whatever reason, he just doesn't pitch that well at GABP compared to on the road - probably due to his giving up more flyballs than many others. It seems to go beyond the general acceptance that GABP is a hitters' park. Obviously other teams know this and more and so does Mahle so it just doesn't feel like a great match for both Mahle and the Reds to stay in Cincinnati. At least compared to what he could do for other teams with the Reds going nowhere this year and potentially next year. It would be a pretty risky move to have extended him at numbers he would feel were acceptable.

As far as the actual prospects received, it's hard to say. I only know what I read, it's not like I personally scouted any of them. The Reds return for Mahle doesn't get the same level of rave reviews as the return for Castillo but that's not surprising. These guys seem a little more under the radar as a group. Encarnacion-Strand in particular to me seems like a guy coming on strong that maybe the public "rankings" haven't caught up to yet. Still, opinions seem generally favorable as far as what I read but yeah some like the Mahle return a lot more than others. Regardless it's tough to see how Mahle's trade value ever gets much higher than it is right now even if he continued to pitch very effectively the rest of the season.

Following up on Mahle trade, here's the Twins writer for The Athletic (granted this is cherry-picking a bit but I just noticed this tweet after my post above):

I think we agree on all fronts. The deal seems to be a relatively good deal based on current market value. Like you, I think he's undervalued with room to grow. The home and road splits are concerning. I just always had the feeling that he would eventually figure it out.

He's an old school type pitcher IMO, where he just knows how to pitch. He's not a super freak that just relies on talent, if that makes any sense. He really caught my attention when he threw his second perfect game in the minors, and he wasn't even a big time prospect yet, and he also wasn't drafted very high.

I'd roll the dice on a guy like that for the long term. But I'm on a message board and not in the front office. Overall, completely understand their thought process. Hopefully it works out.

Field of Dreams game tonight! Redlegs and Cubbies. I’ll be watching as grew up with the movie and was one of the cooler things I’ve ever seen in baseball last year.

I suppose it's at least one reason to watch two teams who are 20 games under .500 play an otherwise meaningless game in August.

(08-11-2022 01:55 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I suppose it's at least one reason to watch two teams who are 20 games under .500 play an otherwise meaningless game in August.

The only

The movie me and my pop watched growing up together the most especially when very young. I was impressed how well it turned out last year with W. Sox vs Yanks

Likely will just watch a couple innings and watch the rest on highlights. Haven't watch a full Reds game in years besides one and that's because I had never sat in the Diamond seats and friend was offered ticks this year. Much much better experience than I anticipated. I've sat every other level ticket/box/club/whatever in GAP and rarely stay for whole thing outside Homer's no no.

Watched most of the FoD game and thought it was pretty cool except the good guys lost.

(08-11-2022 10:58 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Watched most of the FoD game and thought it was pretty cool except the good guys lost.

Well said.

It was fun seeing Johnny Bench there wearing a C-Paw logo on his red and white gingham sport shirt.

Others may disagree, but I enjoyed Bench in the Fox Sports broadcast booth where he did a fine job--knowledgeable, great stories, and a pleasant delivery. I wish he'd do more games but he's long retired and probably doesn't want the hassles of traveling so frequently again.

Even with a disappointing outcome, Cincinnati showed well and as a Reds fan, I'm glad baseball's first professional team was among the first four selected for the FOD game.

(08-12-2022 10:22 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(08-11-2022 10:58 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Watched most of the FoD game and thought it was pretty cool except the good guys lost.

Well said.

It was fun seeing Johnny Bench there wearing a C-Paw logo on his red and white gingham sport shirt.

Others may disagree, but I enjoyed Bench in the Fox Sports broadcast booth where he did a fine job--knowledgeable, great stories, and a pleasant delivery. I wish he'd do more games but he's long retired and probably doesn't want the hassles of traveling so frequently again.

Even with a disappointing outcome, Cincinnati showed well and as a Reds fan, I'm glad baseball's first professional team was among the first four selected for the FOD game.

In case you missed this part with our dawg:

(08-12-2022 02:31 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(08-12-2022 10:22 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(08-11-2022 10:58 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Watched most of the FoD game and thought it was pretty cool except the good guys lost.

Well said.

It was fun seeing Johnny Bench there wearing a C-Paw logo on his red and white gingham sport shirt.

Others may disagree, but I enjoyed Bench in the Fox Sports broadcast booth where he did a fine job--knowledgeable, great stories, and a pleasant delivery. I wish he'd do more games but he's long retired and probably doesn't want the hassles of traveling so frequently again.

Even with a disappointing outcome, Cincinnati showed well and as a Reds fan, I'm glad baseball's first professional team was among the first four selected for the FOD game.

In case you missed this part with our dawg:

Haha missed that part of the pregame but caught most of the rest. That was good. Thanks

If you have access, I highly recommend C. Trent Rosecrans' article in The Athletic about his thoughts around the game.

C. Trent has a good article today in The Athletic on the outlook for next season. While there are some bright spots and young talent/prospects this year, a lot of questions remain for next season. On another note, while not quite approaching the injury bug level of former player Ken Griffey, Jr., Senzel and Moose just can't stay healthy. Moose [34] will make the most cash next season behind Votto. Yeesh.

(08-29-2022 10:57 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  C. Trent has a good article today in The Athletic on the outlook for next season. While there are some bright spots and young talent/prospects this year, a lot of questions remain for next season. On another note, while not quite approaching the injury bug level of former player Ken Griffey, Jr., Senzel and Moose just can't stay healthy. Moose [34] will make the most cash next season behind Votto. Yeesh.

Yeah I don't remember a time with the Reds going into an offseason with this much uncertainty about next year with possibly more injury/issues still to come. Regarding sure things to be here in specific roles next year among position players, the list is probably India at 2B and Stephenson at C (and given their injury issues and the talk about both of them changing positions in the not-too-distant future even those might be stretches to call "sure things".)

Pitching-wise you've Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft in the rotation and Diaz in the pen (again with the injury caveats although that is basically inherent with all pitchers these days.)

That leaves a lot of TBD for next year.

They have a handful of position players down on the farm that could be ready for a call up sometime next season. They have less prospects on the pitching side, and they ones they do have are further away. If they are spending money, I'd trying to grab a couple of starters and a couple two/three bullpen arms.

As far as Moose/Votto/Senzel they are probably washed. Anything you get out of them is a bonus. I'm guessing Nick might even get Non-Tendered, which is very unfortunate for the once highly rated prospect.