(08-06-2022 11:32 AM)johnbragg Wrote: (08-06-2022 10:55 AM)Stugray2 Wrote: Premise is wrong, the Pac-12 lost 40% of it's valuation, the Big 12 lost 50%.
those numbers are pretty much guesses though.
Of course. But it is valuation lost. The Big 12 actually lost more than that because almost 70% of their highest rated audiences were games involving Texas or Oklahoma, and the Big 12 inventory with only 8 schools fell below the contractual minimum inventory of conference games. They had to get back to 10 just to be at the 50% drop point.
But we are talking base contract point. Typical boosts are about 20% , the Pac-12 was expecting closer to 40% because they did not have a reevaluation midway like the Big 12 did with the expansion threat -- the networks paid them for the 11th and 12th school under the condition they didn't add them, pushing the Big 12 ahead of the ACC and Pac-12.
The Pac-12 estimated valuation at $500M with USC and UCLA, accounted not just for eyeballs, but also for quality of viewer (higher incomes on the west coast, more industry connections) and for the valuable late slots. The Big 12 is competing with all the SEC and B1G for time slots as well as the American and ACC. So the same numbers or even slightly better for them is not worth as much due to the window. Still with Texas and Oklahoma a solid 20% bump would have taken the conference to around $45+M per school, compared to the $41-42M the Pac-12 was looking at. If the estimates are right the Big 12 has probably dropped to the $25-28M per school range (the four new schools are not zero value, so it's not a straight 50% drop to $22-23M per school) and the Pac-12 to around $30M per school. The Pac-12 due to it's close vicinity with streaming companies, including a lot of it's grads in the executive ranks of Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix, Meta as well as the Hollywood (LA) based traditional media companies, which seems to give them the decided edge. Especially as they have a P12N infrastructure that can be handed over. This is why some think the Pac-12 can claw back a significant chunk of the $10M per school they lost.
All this is speculative. But primarily it's having more flagship brands and west coast time slots, as well as higher income grads that give the Pac-12 the edge over the Big 12. IMO it doesn't look decisive. When adding digital content the Pac-12 is probably looking at the high 30s per school, while the Big 12 is looking at the low 30s in $millions per school. I honestly don't think it's a difference maker either way. Long term if there were no further raids the Big 12 is likely to see further slippage than the Pac-12 due to the lack of flagships and not having Pacific Coast time slots.
But all this is pointless. The money difference is hardly worth arguing over. The Big Ten will be pulling over $90M per school and accelerating up every year. The SEC is going to be $80M per school and accelerating up every year. Both should hit $100M in media revenue per school well before the end of the decade. The difference between say a Pac-12 $37M, and ACC $38M and a Big 12 $34M is negligible. Add $5M to the Big 12 to put them first among these three and it's still not a difference enough for anybody to move.
Also money at this level won't make anyone move. It's not a transformative $15-20M more per year than staying home with traditional rivals whom you can sell tickets easily. Culture and regional differences cement things.
But I'm not convinced the Big Ten is done. So that Pac-12 valuation could change for the worse. If not before this next contract, then for sure in the next one around 2030. No Pac-12 GOR will run longer than the 5-6 years of the next contract. Fracturing could happen in either of these windows. Arizona may have lost patience, so a single additional member loss could trigger a move by them.
But that is down the road. For now Big 12 schools are looking at $20M less than they would have gotten had Texas and OU stayed, and the Pac-12 schools are looking at $12M less than they would have gotten if USC and UCLA stayed. Hard to call anyone a winner here, except the four schools going to the B1G and SEC.