(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNR is the main campus of the system. No way UNLV will get into a P5 conference before them. UNLV is the little brother to UNR.

(06-22-2022 08:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UNR is the main campus of the system. No way UNLV will get into a P5 conference before them. UNLV is the little brother to UNR.

Pretty much like Rowan and Rutgers, huh?

(06-22-2022 08:14 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

Vegas in the next ten years might dry up and blow away. Imagine a metro of 2.8 million people, located in the middle of a desert, which lacks sufficient domestic water to meet the basic needs of its residents.

That may be the case, but by the same token, coastal Florida might be underwater by that point, too. California, Arizona, anywhere along the Atlantic (including Northern areas like NYC and New England) and Gulf Coast - they’re all totally exposed to climate change. Pretty much the region with the least exposure to climate change is the Midwest, which is where people are moving away from. (To be clear, there is still a ton of climate change risk here. The Chicago area, for instance, is super prone to flooding. It just generally has a lower risk of being made entirely uninhabitable and we have large sources of freshwater.)

Realistically, the climate change impacts are going to be playing out over decades or centuries. For the time being, people care a lot more about moving to places with warmer winter weather as opposed to being worried about their house being uninhabitable due to climate change, or else places like Phoenix and Las Vegas in the desert or all of the coastal Florida cities wouldn’t be among the fast growing places in the county. I’m not saying that makes sense at all, but it will realistically be a long time (likely long after all of us here are gone) before we see a population migration reversal. People are generally much more short-term thinkers about choosing where to live. All of that to say is that Vegas is still going to be an important market for a long time.

(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
...
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
...

UConn isn't in the American.

(06-23-2022 05:06 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
...
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
...

UConn isn't in the American.

The main issue the ACC would have with UConn is the ongoing struggles of their football program. Whether or not they can get their program back on track as an independent remains to be seen. It could be a challenge. A second issue that some have mentioned could be the possibility that Boston College would try to block them.

.

(06-23-2022 05:06 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
...
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
...

UConn isn't in the American.

In spirit they are

Fixed, thanks

(06-22-2022 08:03 PM)AztecNation Wrote:  I think an ideal structure for the current Big12 if they make the move to 16 is a 4 school pod out west, 4 school pod out east, 4 school Texas pod and 4 school central. This would help reduce travel for other sports and fits with the top schools they would likely consider adding.

Something like:

West: BYU, Boise St., SDSU, UNLV? (not really sure who would be the best 4th team)

East: WV, UC, UCF, Memphis

Central: Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., OK St.

Texas: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston


Texas and the Central schools would still be the core of the conference.

I can see merit for a network in the idea of a coast to coast conference with teams in four time zones. It might be overall the weakest P5, but still in that group, not far behind the PAC and ACC but far ahead of any G5 conference in football.

I would configure it a little differently.

For football:

West: Boise, BYU, SDSU, Fresno St.
Plains: Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Texas Tech, Kansas

East: West Virginia, Iowa St, Cincinnati, Memphis
South: Baylor, TCU, UCF, Houston

3-4-1-1 schedule (3 your pod, 4 other pod in your division, 1 each against other pods). Nine conference games.

For basketball:

West: Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Texas Tech, Kansas, Boise, BYU, SDSU, Fresno St
East: WVU, Iowa St, Cincinnati, Memphis, Baylor, TCU, UCF, Houston

Double round robin within division, 6 games (3H, 3A) against the other division. Total 20 conference games. This may be top to bottom as good a hoops conference as any in the country.


The big question is how much a network would pay for this per school compared with the NB12.

(06-23-2022 05:47 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 05:06 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
...
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
...

UConn isn't in the American.

The main issue the ACC would have with UConn is the ongoing struggles of their football program. Whether or not they can get their program back on track as an independent remains to be seen. It could be a challenge. A second issue that some have mentioned could be the possibility that Boston College would try to block them.

.

The thinking, hypothetically, is that UConn would join an ACC with a membership that looks a good bit different compared to its current iteration. In such a scenario, what Boston College might want (or not want) might be moot.

(06-22-2022 08:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Since Utah in 2008, all non-power callups to a power conference have been as backfill. Nobody has proactively done it.

So the real question is, do you think the P4 will get raided and lose members in the foreseeable future?

I do not.

"Keep your expectations low and you will never be disappointed"

To be expected from a USF fan after four straight losing seasons and (just as agonizingly) UCF's rise and exit from the AAC.

:)

(06-23-2022 08:17 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The thinking, hypothetically, is that UConn would join an ACC with a membership that looks a good bit different compared to its current iteration. In such a scenario, what Boston College might want (or not want) might be moot.

Correct.

ACC in the past: Find reasons to lock schools out

ACC in the future: Find reasons to invite schools in

(06-23-2022 08:44 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 08:17 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The thinking, hypothetically, is that UConn would join an ACC with a membership that looks a good bit different compared to its current iteration. In such a scenario, what Boston College might want (or not want) might be moot.

Correct.

ACC in the past: Find reasons to lock schools out

ACC in the future: Find reasons to invite schools in

Agree, P-Chop.

(06-23-2022 08:39 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-22-2022 08:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Since Utah in 2008, all non-power callups to a power conference have been as backfill. Nobody has proactively done it.

So the real question is, do you think the P4 will get raided and lose members in the foreseeable future?

I do not.

"Keep your expectations low and you will never be disappointed"

To be expected from a USF fan after four straight losing seasons and (just as agonizingly) UCF's rise and exit from the AAC.

:)

Well, if you look at G5 to "P" moves, they have uniformly come after a "P" was raided and lost members. The Big East adding USF, Cincy and Louisville in 2005 after the ACC losses, Big 12 adding UCF, UH and Cincy after the SEC losses. And after that, the conference was a "P" in a formal sense only, e.g., the post-2004 Big East was derided by most as not worthy of AQ status.

No "power" has pro-actively added a non-AQ/non-P since Utah in 2008, and maybe it's never happened before then either, I'm not sure.

So I do think this really hinges on the chances that a "P" gets raided again, and then you have to question if the P that does it remains a P.

As for USF, we've been in the dumps athletically for 11 years, not 4. We've been in a bad way since September, 2011 when Pitt and Syracuse announced they were leaving for the ACC. I knew when I heard that news that the Big East was doomed as a power league. I don't see any end in sight for us in that regard. The better news, though, is that as an institution we've never been stronger. The last 11 years have been awesome for USF overall, which matters more to me.

As for the "new Big 12", I do not think it will be a power conference in a brand value sense, what I regard as the real sense, after TX and OU leave. And I would say that if USF had been invited rather than UCF. The brand-disparity is just too large. I mean, if you look at the B1G and compare it to the nB12, probably the top 10 brands across both conferences would come from the B1G.

(06-23-2022 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  As for USF, we've been in the dumps athletically for 11 years, not 4.

Football >>> everything else (just ask those folks who insist Kansas to the B1G is a non-starter).

USF finished 19th in the 2016 poll and 21st in '17 and went to three straight bowl games. I'd wager half of the "P-5" schools (much less those at the "G-5" level) haven't accomplished as much in the last half-dozen years.

Defer to quo vadis or other Bulls fans here, but IMO where USF screwed up was with its arrogant and ultimately shortsighted mindset that "playing in an NFL stadium beats UCF's erector set" ... a stance proven wrong when the Knights zoomed ahead in the rivalry.

Now USF is playing catch-up, which if the administration and stakeholders will follow through, will eventually get the Bulls back on the same plane as their hated neighbors up I-4.

As it should be since -- just like UF and FSU -- USF and UCF are two peas in a pod.

(06-23-2022 10:10 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  As for USF, we've been in the dumps athletically for 11 years, not 4.

Football >>> everything else (just ask those folks who insist Kansas to the B1G is a non-starter).

USF finished 19th in the 2016 poll and 21st in '17 and went to three straight bowl games. I'd wager half of the "P-5" schools (much less those at the "G-5" level) haven't accomplished as much in the last half-dozen years.

Defer to quo vadis or other Bulls fans here, but IMO where USF screwed up was with its arrogant and ultimately shortsighted mindset that "playing in an NFL stadium beats UCF's erector set" ... a stance proven wrong when the Knights zoomed ahead in the rivalry.

Now USF is playing catch-up, which if the administration and stakeholders will follow through, will eventually get the Bulls back on the same plane as their hated neighbors up I-4.

As it should be since -- just like UF and FSU -- USF and UCF are two peas in a pod.

Eh - as an outside observer, I don't think it matters that much. If USF had been the one going to NY6 bowls and having undefeated seasons instead of UCF, then USF would have gotten the invite to the Big 12 even if they were playing at Tropicana Field (much less an NFL stadium). USF does have the benefit of its location in the Tampa Bay market, so that's a buoy to its future Big 12 prospects.

(06-22-2022 09:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-22-2022 08:14 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

Vegas in the next ten years might dry up and blow away. Imagine a metro of 2.8 million people, located in the middle of a desert, which lacks sufficient domestic water to meet the basic needs of its residents.

That may be the case, but by the same token, coastal Florida might be underwater by that point, too. California, Arizona, anywhere along the Atlantic (including Northern areas like NYC and New England) and Gulf Coast - they’re all totally exposed to climate change. Pretty much the region with the least exposure to climate change is the Midwest, which is where people are moving away from. (To be clear, there is still a ton of climate change risk here. The Chicago area, for instance, is super prone to flooding. It just generally has a lower risk of being made entirely uninhabitable and we have large sources of freshwater.)

Realistically, the climate change impacts are going to be playing out over decades or centuries. For the time being, people care a lot more about moving to places with warmer winter weather as opposed to being worried about their house being uninhabitable due to climate change, or else places like Phoenix and Las Vegas in the desert or all of the coastal Florida cities wouldn’t be among the fast growing places in the county. I’m not saying that makes sense at all, but it will realistically be a long time (likely long after all of us here are gone) before we see a population migration reversal. People are generally much more short-term thinkers about choosing where to live. All of that to say is that Vegas is still going to be an important market for a long time.

So FSU. UF, and UCF will be the only schools left at that rate.

(06-23-2022 10:10 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  As for USF, we've been in the dumps athletically for 11 years, not 4.

Football >>> everything else (just ask those folks who insist Kansas to the B1G is a non-starter).

USF finished 19th in the 2016 poll and 21st in '17 and went to three straight bowl games. I'd wager half of the "P-5" schools (much less those at the "G-5" level) haven't accomplished as much in the last half-dozen years.

Defer to quo vadis or other Bulls fans here, but IMO where USF screwed up was with its arrogant and ultimately shortsighted mindset that "playing in an NFL stadium beats UCF's erector set" ... a stance proven wrong when the Knights zoomed ahead in the rivalry.

Now USF is playing catch-up, which if the administration and stakeholders will follow through, will eventually get the Bulls back on the same plane as their hated neighbors up I-4.

As it should be since -- just like UF and FSU -- USF and UCF are two peas in a pod.

About the bolded, to me "being in the dumps" means being stuck in a non-power conference. Much better IMO for USF to be one of those P5 schools that didn't go to any bowl games or finished ranked the past ten years than to be us, doing so a few times but from the AAC.

Also, about the stadium situation, I basically agree with FT - if USF had had UCF's record the past eight years, going to multiple NY6 bowls, and had UCF had USF's record the past eight years, I think we would have got the quasi-call up to the new Big 12, not them.

That said, I do think it helps to have an OCS. I think it helped UCF achieve those results and it would help us too so I hope we can build them. I think an OCS helps build the fan base and the gameday atmosphere, and that can help a team win sometimes. But an OCS isn't a panacea, plenty of schools have OCS and never win anything.

(06-23-2022 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  As for the "new Big 12", I do not think it will be a power conference in a brand value sense, what I regard as the real sense, after TX and OU leave. And I would say that if USF had been invited rather than UCF. The brand-disparity is just too large. I mean, if you look at the B1G and compare it to the nB12, probably the top 10 brands across both conferences would come from the B1G.

BYU wouldn't be one of the top ten brands? I find that hard to believe.

(06-23-2022 03:47 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  As for the "new Big 12", I do not think it will be a power conference in a brand value sense, what I regard as the real sense, after TX and OU leave. And I would say that if USF had been invited rather than UCF. The brand-disparity is just too large. I mean, if you look at the B1G and compare it to the nB12, probably the top 10 brands across both conferences would come from the B1G.

BYU wouldn't be one of the top ten brands? I find that hard to believe.

If BYU were a member of the Big Ten — or any other P league, for that matter — it likely would be one of top five brands in that conference. There are almost 7 million members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in the U.S. And the bulk who are college sports fans almost certainly root for BYU. The name/brand are recognized, essentially, worldwide. And, if anything, the Wildcat brand is a bit unusual (clean-cut athletes, lots of Polynesian athletes, all the great QBs, not playing on Sundays, etc.)

"Brand" is defined by more than simply "wins." It is also about being highly recognized and distinctive.

(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

I lived in Vegas a few years. UNLV will have to get a fiddle first.

(06-23-2022 03:47 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  As for the "new Big 12", I do not think it will be a power conference in a brand value sense, what I regard as the real sense, after TX and OU leave. And I would say that if USF had been invited rather than UCF. The brand-disparity is just too large. I mean, if you look at the B1G and compare it to the nB12, probably the top 10 brands across both conferences would come from the B1G.

BYU wouldn't be one of the top ten brands? I find that hard to believe.

IMO, bigger brands in football ...

Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Iowa

About equal brands

Minnesota
Maryland
Purdue

Lesser brands ....

Indiana
Rutgers

So maybe I overstated it a smidge? Tied for 8tn/9th/10th?

To me, many significantly overstate BYU's brand-appeal in football. They have memories of Jim McMahon vs Eric Dickerson in a 1980 bowl game, or Ty Detmer vs Mighty Miami 10 years later.

But IMO there's a reason BYU has never been in a Power conference, and had to scrabble around dying on the vine of independence the past 10 years after the woeful WAC folded, and now only get a Big 12 invite as that conference loses the pillars that made it a Power league. They just aren't that valuable.