Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

(06-16-2022 10:10 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

They will eventually have FSU and Clemson. Maybe more.

(06-16-2022 10:12 PM)Tigerblud Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:10 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

They will eventually have FSU and Clemson. Maybe more.

Agreed. The ACC will be raided

(06-16-2022 10:37 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:12 PM)Tigerblud Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:10 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

They will eventually have FSU and Clemson. Maybe more.

Agreed. The ACC will be raided

Don’t agree.

Leagues don’t expand just for the sake of expanding.

Every expansion raises the bar for the next expansion to simply break even.

The SEC just added the single greatest pair of schools that they could EVER realistically add with Texas and Oklahoma.

This board exists because getting to be the final home of Texas was what caused all of conference realignment from 2010 until now.

I quoted Doctor Strange on the day that the UT/OU to the SEC story broke: “We’re in the END GAME now.”

There’s no one that loves discussing realignment more than me, but power conference realignment (at least for the Big Ten/SEC/ACC/Pac-12) is over unless Notre Dame decides to drop independence. That’s it. It’s over. Even adding FSU, Clemson, UNC and take your pick of anyone else in the ACC combined wouldn’t bring in the value that simply the pair of UT and OU just brought to the SEC. Hence the total paralysis of any movement from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC over the past year (unlike the 2010-13 timeframe) outside of a non-binding Alliance.

Our realignment talks are going to be focused on the Big 12, G5 and basketball leagues. I have as much vested interest in seeing more big moves from the SEC, Big Ten and other major powers as anyone here, but it’s over. Done. There is NO expansion that’s better than UT and OU alone. NONE. It was a mic drop hammer to power conference realignment.

Getting Texas is the entire end game, NOT the start.

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For every person who expects the SEC to stop expanding, there seems to be someone who expect either a continuing expansion or a merger resulting in fewer than 5 power conferences.

Question: Why do so many people seem to expect further SEC expansion of some kind (either adding members or merging/absorbing other conferences)?

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(06-16-2022 11:25 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

For every person who expects the SEC to stop expanding, there seems to be someone who expect either a continuing expansion or a merger resulting in fewer than 5 power conferences.

Question: Why do so many people seem to expect further SEC expansion of some kind (either adding members or merging/absorbing other conferences)?

I don't understand it either I feel that the SEC is done expanding for the foreseeable future. The only other expansion I could think of is if the Big10, Pac12 and ACC all decide to gang up on the B12 and destroy it creating 4 "Power" Conferences

(06-16-2022 11:25 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

For every person who expects the SEC to stop expanding, there seems to be someone who expect either a continuing expansion or a merger resulting in fewer than 5 power conferences.

Question: Why do so many people seem to expect further SEC expansion of some kind (either adding members or merging/absorbing other conferences)?

.

This is a conference realignment forum. We’re total action junkies and crave it even when a proposed action doesn’t make sense. We don’t even bat an eye when people suggest that there will be two 24-team super conferences or other Armageddon scenarios. Many of us are incapable of thinking of something as huge as the SEC adding UT and OU as anything but *needing* more dominos and are in denial that the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC don’t have any interest in the current Big 12 schools.

The “normal” world doesn’t see it this way. They think about conference realignment when it’s actually happening, but don’t think about it all in al of those years in between when it’s not happening.

(06-16-2022 11:25 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

For every person who expects the SEC to stop expanding, there seems to be someone who expect either a continuing expansion or a merger resulting in fewer than 5 power conferences.

Question: Why do so many people seem to expect further SEC expansion of some kind (either adding members or merging/absorbing other conferences)?

.

Because major brands in the ACC and PAC will not abide a 30-40 million dollar deficit and there are accretive moves remaining. Not moves as monumental as OU and UT. Frank is right about that, but moves which pay their own way and add some value. USC and Notre Dame would absolutely be a move which jumps someone's needle. The States of Virginia and North Carolina add potentially 21 million to markets and bring brand value to boot. If hoops are further monetized they look even more viable.

So the short sweet answer is monetary disparity. It will never have been greater between P5 conferences. Therefore declaring it's over seems very premature to me. The stresses for further consolidation are greater than ever, and it's not conferences driving this, it's networks. Conferences play along for larger paydays while heading into a period of negative demographics. Networks are looking at synergistic pairings which drive ratings and how better to sew up what you need than through solid product placement and consolidation, particularly if you are able to separate product by pay grade.

Could we settle in at 4 or 5 key conferences? Sure. But I ask you, do you really believe Oregon, Washington, Cal, U.C.L.A., U.S.C., Notre Dame, Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, and Miami will enter the NIL and Pay for Play era at such a disadvantage in media revenue? I'd say the odds of some school seeking to join the SEC or Big 10 is palpable, maybe even compelling.

Is there a way this ends with just one more move? Maybe. Maybe N.D. & Kansas or USC join the Big Ten and then no major moves are left. But would that end it? The disparity would be greater than ever! So???

The truth is simply this, nobody knows what happens next! Could be nothing, or it could be massive. Why has anyone moved since 2010? Money and Security. Well we face a massive shift in interest in football when Boomers pass. We face very real financial issues. We face shifting power globally and that brings massive insecurity and uncertainty. With automation and remote working we face new job skill requirements which are less social and more specific and which may not match old curricula. So I see none of the motivations for movement being eliminated, rather I see them being exacerbated. But that's just my opinion.

And being familiar with culture in the South I could easily see the accommodation of other key Southern schools. Football in the South is a social and even familial event and business is discussed and finalized in skyboxes. There is a network already in place between states and their endeavors. I'm sure this goes on regionally across the nation. Money alone therefore would not be the only motivation, access and inclusion would play a part.

But as with all things in life, we'll see!

(06-16-2022 11:56 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 11:25 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

For every person who expects the SEC to stop expanding, there seems to be someone who expect either a continuing expansion or a merger resulting in fewer than 5 power conferences.

Question: Why do so many people seem to expect further SEC expansion of some kind (either adding members or merging/absorbing other conferences)?

.

This is a conference realignment forum. We’re total action junkies and crave it even when a proposed action doesn’t make sense. We don’t even bat an eye when people suggest that there will be two 24-team super conferences or other Armageddon scenarios. Many of us are incapable of thinking of something as huge as the SEC adding UT and OU as anything but *needing* more dominos and are in denial that the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC don’t have any interest in the current Big 12 schools.

The “normal” world doesn’t see it this way. They think about conference realignment when it’s actually happening, but don’t think about it all in al of those years in between when it’s not happening.

Frank, Texas and Oklahoma had been in the works since 1987, albeit with feelers and flirtations sprinkled in. My point is just because we may go 6-8 years without an announced move, doesn't mean realignment discussions ever stop. They may change directions, cool, and re-heat, but they have never ceased with due diligence valuations, back door what ifs, and decisions made long ago waiting for the right moment, or knowing when to back away and stick. But there really aren't any sustained periods of absolute stasis and that goes back decades.

(06-16-2022 10:50 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:37 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:12 PM)Tigerblud Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:10 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

They will eventually have FSU and Clemson. Maybe more.

Agreed. The ACC will be raided

Don’t agree.

Leagues don’t expand just for the sake of expanding.

Every expansion raises the bar for the next expansion to simply break even.

The SEC just added the single greatest pair of schools that they could EVER realistically add with Texas and Oklahoma.

This board exists because getting to be the final home of Texas was what caused all of conference realignment from 2010 until now.

I quoted Doctor Strange on the day that the UT/OU to the SEC story broke: “We’re in the END GAME now.”

There’s no one that loves discussing realignment more than me, but power conference realignment (at least for the Big Ten/SEC/ACC/Pac-12) is over unless Notre Dame decides to drop independence. That’s it. It’s over. Even adding FSU, Clemson, UNC and take your pick of anyone else in the ACC combined wouldn’t bring in the value that simply the pair of UT and OU just brought to the SEC. Hence the total paralysis of any movement from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC over the past year (unlike the 2010-13 timeframe) outside of a non-binding Alliance.

Our realignment talks are going to be focused on the Big 12, G5 and basketball leagues. I have as much vested interest in seeing more big moves from the SEC, Big Ten and other major powers as anyone here, but it’s over. Done. There is NO expansion that’s better than UT and OU alone. NONE. It was a mic drop hammer to power conference realignment.

Getting Texas is the entire end game, NOT the start.

Solid statement. However, if it’s true that the SEC has reached its peak composition, then it’s also true that the conference will not maintain its new status quo. Laws of nature or business for that matter do not allow equilibrium at peak composition. There will be inherent instability that will inevitably arise when such powerhouse schools are pooled together in the same tent. The composition of the SEC is too perfect to work. How many of the current SEC schools were in the old SWC. The SEC, one of the most stable and profitable league, has upset its balance by bringing those two to the fold. The perfect Trojan horses.

Ultimately, as we have seen time and time again, it will start to fray , due to politics, arguments , personal animosity and straight up vindictiveness. Post Saban, Like the old SWC a coalition of the willing will break away to do their own thing.

Getting Texas is not the entire end game. It’s the beginning of the end of the Saban’s SEC.

(06-16-2022 10:10 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

Stay at 16 unless they can get the Bengals and Colts up North.

(06-17-2022 12:38 AM)Acres Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:50 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:37 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:12 PM)Tigerblud Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:10 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

They will eventually have FSU and Clemson. Maybe more.

Agreed. The ACC will be raided

Don’t agree.

Leagues don’t expand just for the sake of expanding.

Every expansion raises the bar for the next expansion to simply break even.

The SEC just added the single greatest pair of schools that they could EVER realistically add with Texas and Oklahoma.

This board exists because getting to be the final home of Texas was what caused all of conference realignment from 2010 until now.

I quoted Doctor Strange on the day that the UT/OU to the SEC story broke: “We’re in the END GAME now.”

There’s no one that loves discussing realignment more than me, but power conference realignment (at least for the Big Ten/SEC/ACC/Pac-12) is over unless Notre Dame decides to drop independence. That’s it. It’s over. Even adding FSU, Clemson, UNC and take your pick of anyone else in the ACC combined wouldn’t bring in the value that simply the pair of UT and OU just brought to the SEC. Hence the total paralysis of any movement from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC over the past year (unlike the 2010-13 timeframe) outside of a non-binding Alliance.

Our realignment talks are going to be focused on the Big 12, G5 and basketball leagues. I have as much vested interest in seeing more big moves from the SEC, Big Ten and other major powers as anyone here, but it’s over. Done. There is NO expansion that’s better than UT and OU alone. NONE. It was a mic drop hammer to power conference realignment.

Getting Texas is the entire end game, NOT the start.

Solid statement. However, if it’s true that the SEC has reached its peak composition, then it’s also true that the conference will not maintain its new status quo. Laws of nature or business for that matter do not allow equilibrium at peak composition. There will be inherent instability that will inevitably arise when such powerhouse schools are pooled together in the same tent. The composition of the SEC is too perfect to work. How many of the current SEC schools were in the old SWC. The SEC, one of the most stable and profitable league, has upset its balance by bringing those two to the fold. The perfect Trojan horses.

Ultimately, as we have seen time and time again, it will start to fray , due to politics, arguments , personal animosity and straight up vindictiveness. Post Saban, Like the old SWC a coalition of the willing will break away to do their own thing.

Getting Texas is not the entire end game. It’s the beginning of the end of the Saban’s SEC.

I have to confess that, in the area of college sports, few things would delight me more than to see the addition of OU and Texas backfiring for the two additions and the SEC as a whole.

I’m torn on the subject. Certainly you Florida Sts and Clemson’s WANT in the SEC and want SEC cash but it’s the SEC who has to decide they want to let someone in.

Is we completely discount basketball and look solely at football, I think the smart move is Florida St, Clemson, NC St, and Virginia Tech.

The later 2 are far more football oriented than their instate foes UNC, Duke, and UVA. That trio does a lot for the overall academic perception of the league but will do little of note on the gridiron. The demographics of their enrollment just don’t lend themselves to generating lots of football fans.

(06-17-2022 05:59 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(06-17-2022 12:38 AM)Acres Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:50 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:37 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 10:12 PM)Tigerblud Wrote:  They will eventually have FSU and Clemson. Maybe more.

Agreed. The ACC will be raided

Don’t agree.

Leagues don’t expand just for the sake of expanding.

Every expansion raises the bar for the next expansion to simply break even.

The SEC just added the single greatest pair of schools that they could EVER realistically add with Texas and Oklahoma.

This board exists because getting to be the final home of Texas was what caused all of conference realignment from 2010 until now.

I quoted Doctor Strange on the day that the UT/OU to the SEC story broke: “We’re in the END GAME now.”

There’s no one that loves discussing realignment more than me, but power conference realignment (at least for the Big Ten/SEC/ACC/Pac-12) is over unless Notre Dame decides to drop independence. That’s it. It’s over. Even adding FSU, Clemson, UNC and take your pick of anyone else in the ACC combined wouldn’t bring in the value that simply the pair of UT and OU just brought to the SEC. Hence the total paralysis of any movement from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC over the past year (unlike the 2010-13 timeframe) outside of a non-binding Alliance.

Our realignment talks are going to be focused on the Big 12, G5 and basketball leagues. I have as much vested interest in seeing more big moves from the SEC, Big Ten and other major powers as anyone here, but it’s over. Done. There is NO expansion that’s better than UT and OU alone. NONE. It was a mic drop hammer to power conference realignment.

Getting Texas is the entire end game, NOT the start.

Solid statement. However, if it’s true that the SEC has reached its peak composition, then it’s also true that the conference will not maintain its new status quo. Laws of nature or business for that matter do not allow equilibrium at peak composition. There will be inherent instability that will inevitably arise when such powerhouse schools are pooled together in the same tent. The composition of the SEC is too perfect to work. How many of the current SEC schools were in the old SWC. The SEC, one of the most stable and profitable league, has upset its balance by bringing those two to the fold. The perfect Trojan horses.

Ultimately, as we have seen time and time again, it will start to fray , due to politics, arguments , personal animosity and straight up vindictiveness. Post Saban, Like the old SWC a coalition of the willing will break away to do their own thing.

Getting Texas is not the entire end game. It’s the beginning of the end of the Saban’s SEC.

I have to confess that, in the area of college sports, few things would delight me more than to see the addition of OU and Texas backfiring for the two additions and the SEC as a whole.

"Oh the schadenfreude!"

(06-16-2022 10:10 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Will the SEC stop at 16 or expand to 18 or 20?.

You forgot the option that the SEC gets raided by the B1G for Mizzou. Which is as likely as any of the other options.

The SEC will expand to 24 adding Ohio St,Mich, Penn St, Notre Dame, UNC, Virginia, Clemson and Florida St.

Once the reality sets in that the SEC is the only power conference and not even the Big Ten can compete, the top programs will eventually come to the same conclusion Ok and Tex did. You have to join the SEC to keep up or else you are going to fall behind.

Can we really say it's over? Change is constant. Who would have thought 30 years ago that today Louisville and BC would be in the ACC or that UCF and Cincy would be in the same league as Kansas and OK State? Who knows, maybe at some point the top of the SEC, B1G , ACC and P12 will decide they can make MORE money be joining together and becoming a national conference, stretching from coast o coast

I can’t see it happening before 2030, so I said 16.

Now if the poll said, idk, 2033 or 2034, then things get tricky. I think there’s a decent chance B1G and SEC will raid ACC. And ACC will end up looking like the original Big East but just the football members with ucf, Cincy, WV and possibly Memphis and usf thrown in …maybe a couple more??

So ACC will be an eastern based best-of-the-rest, while Big12 will become a Texas/Plains/WesternStates BOTR.

So…

Mega-2: B1G, SEC

Power-3: Pac, Big12, ACC

G3 or 4??…do some fcs move up to keep it at least G4? Or does all leftover “G” teams drop to fcs, whereas, fcs becomes more of a hybrid with the higher ranked fcs playing in a few bowls - some bowls vs P3 - and the rest playing in fcs championship (16 - 32 teams??).

If the ACC collapses due to a Big 10 raid next decade I could very easily see the SEC picking up some schools

(06-17-2022 07:29 AM)goofus Wrote:  The SEC will expand to 24 adding Ohio St,Mich, Penn St, Notre Dame, UNC, Virginia, Clemson and Florida St.

Once the reality sets in that the SEC is the only power conference and not even the Big Ten can compete, the top programs will eventually come to the same conclusion Ok and Tex did. You have to join the SEC to keep up or else you are going to fall behind.

Why would Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame "have to join the SEC" to compete?

1) The B1G's new media rights deals will certainly be in the same financial ballpark — if not better — than the SEC's upcoming deal;

2) OSU, Michigan, PSU and ND are filling their football stadiums week to week as well as — if not better — than the top programs in the S-E-C;

3) OSU and ND have been and/or are recruiting at an elite level; PSU has recruited well; Michigan's recruiting has been uneven, but that's almost certainly more a reflection on Harbaugh and his staff than the UM brand;

4) S-E-C footprint recruiting >>> B1G footprint recruiting ... yeah, obviously (which as an aside is why the B1G expanding into, say, the talent-rich states of Virginia and North Carolina would be noteworthy). But the top tier football programs in the B1G all have the ability to recruit at a high level well beyond their state's borders

What is that would actually change for the better for Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame if they joined the SEC?