Dow is back under 30k. I don't think too many people believe this is a short-term dip, so what say you all on the bottom? Where do we end up?

(06-16-2022 03:13 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Dow is back under 30k. I don't think too many people believe this is a short-term dip, so what say you all on the bottom? Where do we end up?

I don't see an option for under 20k, so I guess I'll take under 25k.

I am so glad that I cashed out of everything in February.

I think we have a ways to go. They said "stocks were priced for perfection" all through the pandemic. They also said that these valuations were reasonable because interest rates were so low (near zero). They also said the high PE's were not that bad based on forward earnings.

Well---right now---not a single one of those supports for high valuations remain in place. A recession probably isnt "perfect" environment for stocks. Interest rates are rising and are set to go higher. Consumers savings rate has fallen and credit card debt rose at the highest rate in decades. That suggests that while consumers have continued spending normally---they have been using savings and debt to maintain that level of spending---likely because they believed the Biden Administration's "inflation is transitory" line. Consumers now know its not temporary---but instead it will be around a while. This is supported by the most recent consumer sentiment survey that recorded the lowest consumer confidence number in history. That means forward looking corporate earnings are almost certain to either miss or be revised downward.

I'd watch volume. Right now there are too many people still in the "buy and hold" camp. That tells me we arent anywhere near a bottom. The driving engine of a consumption driven economy is housing----and home sales are falling off a table. The week of June 8th recorded the lowest level of home purchase mortgage loan applications in 22 years. Whats that tell you? 19,173 was the low in 2020----I woudnt be surprised if we revisit that. That would be a roughly 50% decline----similar to declines we saw in the dot com bust and 2008 financial crisis. But it could go lower---remember---the Fed is not in a position to stop the NYSE bleeding this time around. For the first time since 2008----there is no Fed safety net for stocks.

(06-16-2022 03:34 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:13 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Dow is back under 30k. I don't think too many people believe this is a short-term dip, so what say you all on the bottom? Where do we end up?

I don't see an option for under 20k, so I guess I'll take under 25k.

Yup, under 25 no doubt. We're off 20% already and the real dumb is just getting started.

The war on the lower and middle classes continues unabated, the pending recession or worse oughta just be a hoot.

Nice work PF.

Definitely under 25k. I stopped buying stocks for now and just letting it fall, but around the 25k mark will start to purchase again.

Biden’s puppet masters are going to run this thing into the ground.


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18k-22k is my guess.

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(06-16-2022 05:06 PM)maximus Wrote:  18k-22k is my guess.

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yep .... high teens is a pretty good guestimate at this point ...

I'm not sold it doesn't hit <15k

every historical metric was abandoned long ago ... at least some of the sum that matter listened awhile back...

oh wellzy for those that are stuck ... I see zero out in this game moving forward with the donks holding the reigns ....

#y'allAin'tSeenShiteYet

Everything I see tells me we could be looking at a low in the teens.

Note: If they go any lower I might have to jump back in and pick up a few bargains.

I'm probably going to pull back on putting new money into my 401(k), and instead start investing in Series I bonds. Right now they are paying 9.62%.

I think we bottom tomorrow for a 10% up multi week move. Retest later this summer to see if it holds. If inflation or oil comes in, then maybe it holds.

(06-16-2022 05:47 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I'm probably going to pull back on putting new money into my 401(k), and instead start investing in Series I bonds. Right now they are paying 9.62%.

That's great for $10,000. What about the rest of your money?

(06-16-2022 03:39 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:34 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:13 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Dow is back under 30k. I don't think too many people believe this is a short-term dip, so what say you all on the bottom? Where do we end up?

I don't see an option for under 20k, so I guess I'll take under 25k.

Yup, under 25 no doubt. We're off 20% already and the real dumb is just getting started.

The war on the lower and middle classes continues unabated, the pending recession or worse oughta just be a hoot.

Nice work PF.

I am starting to hate the country I once loved. The game is rigged against the common man and in favor of the elite. I've been getting by just fine through all of this and then today had some horrible financial news from my government that is going to set me back years. I'll be living paycheck to paycheck when the dust settles. Man, I thought I had my golden years figured out. Now I see that I have been a fool.

(06-16-2022 06:26 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 05:47 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I'm probably going to pull back on putting new money into my 401(k), and instead start investing in Series I bonds. Right now they are paying 9.62%.

That's great for $10,000. What about the rest of your money?

That's pretty close to what I contribute for a year anyway.

(06-16-2022 06:34 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:39 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:34 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:13 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Dow is back under 30k. I don't think too many people believe this is a short-term dip, so what say you all on the bottom? Where do we end up?

I don't see an option for under 20k, so I guess I'll take under 25k.

Yup, under 25 no doubt. We're off 20% already and the real dumb is just getting started.

The war on the lower and middle classes continues unabated, the pending recession or worse oughta just be a hoot.

Nice work PF.

I am starting to hate the country I once loved. The game is rigged against the common man and in favor of the elite. I've been getting by just fine through all of this and then today had some horrible financial news from my government that is going to set me back years. I'll be living paycheck to paycheck when the dust settles. Man, I thought I had my golden years figured out. Now I see that I have been a fool.

What happened man?

(06-16-2022 06:34 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:39 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:34 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(06-16-2022 03:13 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Dow is back under 30k. I don't think too many people believe this is a short-term dip, so what say you all on the bottom? Where do we end up?

I don't see an option for under 20k, so I guess I'll take under 25k.

Yup, under 25 no doubt. We're off 20% already and the real dumb is just getting started.

The war on the lower and middle classes continues unabated, the pending recession or worse oughta just be a hoot.

Nice work PF.

I am starting to hate the country I once loved. The game is rigged against the common man and in favor of the elite. I've been getting by just fine through all of this and then today had some horrible financial news from my government that is going to set me back years. I'll be living paycheck to paycheck when the dust settles. Man, I thought I had my golden years figured out. Now I see that I have been a fool.

That’s why we don’t put our faith or treasures in men. It’s fool’s gold.

This country is decaying before our eyes. The lack of morality on the left and far left has gotten to the point of just gross malignancy. They have become a disease ever searching to satiate their lusts and desires which will never come to fruition. Rome2.0

Demokkkrats in Washngton DC to every state ASSURE YOU THINGS ARE FANTASTIC--much BETTER than under President Trump! Don't you agree with them?

#DemokkkratsHateYOU!

I wonder how liberals will maneuver to defend what their party has done to this country? And in such a short time span?

It is unlikely that it will fall below 20K - emotional buying and bargain shoppers will never allow it past that point. I picked 26K, but I think the bottom will be in the 21K-23K range

(06-16-2022 08:31 PM)450bench Wrote:  I wonder how liberals will maneuver to defend what their party has done to this country? And in such a short time span?

Dem Underground and the Haitian dike gotta issue the talking points first.