Seems pretty generous. I’d be beside myself if we had 8 wins this first season in the belt

Love that play. One of my favorites.

Wow. 7.5 seems like a high bar. I would have expected to see 7 or 6.5. It's only .5 difference, but that's a pretty big difference.
They are giving quite a lot of credit and I love it.

This is a tough line. Im a homer but if I was betting - I would not take the over. We only play 11 regular season games. With a new QB and missing two star players to the portal… I’m taking the under. (6-5)

(06-16-2022 07:35 AM)Rock House Duke Wrote:  This is a tough line. Im a homer but if I was betting - I would not take the over. We only play 11 regular season games. With a new QB and missing two star players to the portal… I’m taking the under. (6-5)

Watch out, Longhorn will tell you the coaches expect to win every game and you’re a bad fan for this outlook!

How nice is it that our win total is even posted on a major sportsbook? It also helps that Barstool as a few JMU alums to get the name out there even more

(06-16-2022 07:35 AM)Rock House Duke Wrote:  This is a tough line. Im a homer but if I was betting - I would not take the over. We only play 11 regular season games. With a new QB and missing two star players to the portal… I’m taking the under. (6-5)

I think 7 wins is possible but I think 8 wins is going to be very tough to do. Possible? Sure, but if money is on the line, I think under is far more likely than over.
Would I bet on it if I could? Not this year. I think there's a lot of ways this could go down. I definitely wouldn't put it past Cignetti to shock everyone and put up a 1-2 loss team.

expect this to move down as many people will take the under...kind of understandably

7 is our high ceiling really.........8 would be astounding

Agreed. I would be extremely happy with 7 wins and to pull an 8th we would need to win multiple games where we are underdogs.

I forget whether or not it was posted here, but the @JMUSportsNews account tweeted a screenshot of another sportsbook had us at O/U 6.5 wins a week or so ago. Couldn't see what sportsbook it was in the screenshot, but even as high as 6.5 was pretty exciting to see jumping straight from FCS to such a tough conference along with a P5 and a solid G5 ooc.

6.5 makes it a tough call if I had to bet on it, 7.5 I'd take the under if I had to bet. But it's so hard to say what'll happen, I'm not betting on it.

Well MT is notoriously bad in road openers under Stockstill. I hope we win but I’ll be surprised given our history. That gives you one right there.

I am not surprised. Still under my prediction of 7-4 or maybe 8-3, and 9-2 would not shock me.

I believe the linchpin is how pass-happy is Cig going to be this year. He has lost big games because of it. He has an absolutely dominating ground attack this year and should study the Mick.

"Run it 'til they stop it!"

(06-16-2022 10:53 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  I forget whether or not it was posted here, but the @JMUSportsNews account tweeted a screenshot of another sportsbook had us at O/U 6.5 wins a week or so ago. Couldn't see what sportsbook it was in the screenshot, but even as high as 6.5 was pretty exciting to see jumping straight from FCS to such a tough conference along with a P5 and a solid G5 ooc.

6.5 makes it a tough call if I had to bet on it, 7.5 I'd take the under if I had to bet. But it's so hard to say what'll happen, I'm not betting on it.

Draftkings has JMU over 6.5 (-120) and under 6.5 (+100) so that slightly favors the over according to oddsmakers.

I know we normally make a prediction thread but this seems like an appropriate place to say how we’d feel based on number of wins in the first Sun Belt season.

5-6 Minimum Expectation
6-5 Expected Outcome (home that I’m wrong obviously)
7-4 Exceeded Expectations
8-3 Extremely Impressed
9-2 We’re making the playoffs in a few years

Gonna be a big test for Cignetti and staff to switch from playing maybe 2 games against teams with equal or better talent to what will likely be eight this season.

I'll consider it a successful season if we go 6-5 during the transition year....the Sun Belt East is no joke.

(06-17-2022 03:29 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  Gonna be a big test for Cignetti and staff to switch from playing maybe 2 games against teams with equal or better talent to what will likely be eight this season.

I'll consider it a successful season if we go 6-5 during the transition year....the Sun Belt East is no joke.

Yup, I have 5-6 in my head. Anything more than that is a bonus this 1st year of FBS, but definitely feel we'll be better later in the season. Unfortunately, that coincides when the schedule turns harder. We'll see how all the new parts mesh together.

That said, I'd gladly lose $100 on the under if it meant we'd win that many games, so I'll bet it.

Tough line. Heart says over. But pocket says under. Honestly under at 7 would still be a win to me. Everyone wins. First year we win 7 and bet under then we all donate to expand BFS for next year to win over 11.

I think a lot of this is going to depend on if your players can stay healthy and adapt to the speed and depth of FBS on a week to week basis.

(06-20-2022 10:33 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  I think a lot of this is going to depend on if your players can stay healthy and adapt to the speed and depth of FBS on a week to week basis.

I think your comment is a gross simplification, and frankly, a bit naive.

The “speed” of the game? You hear that from amateur analysts, but honestly, what does that mean? Foot speed? The speed of recognizing what your opponent is trying to accomplish on any given play? Seriously? “Speed” (from game to game) throughout the season won’t be an issue on any level for JMU. If you honestly believe the “speed” of G5 games will challenge JMU you haven’t been following the JMU football program over the last decade. Oh, and there’s a strong likelihood JMU will start a 5th year FBS transfer at QB who won’t be “surprised” by the mythical “speed” of the game. You can dismiss “speed” of the game as a bogus concern.

Regarding depth, JMU will have a full roster of scholarship players, so depth across the scholarship roster shouldn’t be anymore of an issue than it would be for any other G5 team. The total size of the roster will also boast the same number of walk-on/practice players available to other G5 level programs. “Depth” per se is not the issue. “Experience” of the 3rd or 4th level players on the roster would be an issue, but the same could be said for any team. Same for the balance of the roster across positions. So, a reasonable outlook on the prospects of success for JMU’s inaugural FBS season seems to boil down to staying healthy and avoiding major injuries to 1st or 2nd stringers.

Staying healthy, however, is an issue for every team, wouldn’t you agree? And staying healthy and avoiding a major injury to an important player is one that can’t be predicted. If anything, JMU’s decision to limit the 2022 season to just 11 games, 6 of them at home, with one of those being against an FCS opponent, would seem to mitigate risks to the team’s health. Simply put, JMU won’t be going immediately on the road for a “meat grinder” schedule against the SBC’s best teams. The latter half of the schedule will be the most challenging, but again, some of those games will be played at home.

JMU players won’t be anymore susceptible to injuries than any other SBC team, however, if you’re still thinking SBC play is going pose a greater risk to injury because of a schedule of weekly games where unexpectedly fast speed, bigger size, greater talent, or physical conditioning will come to bear I don’t know what to say other than let’s watch how the season develops. That’s why the games are played, and JMU football will be ready for the challenge.

As for JMU finishing a 6-5 or 7-4 season, either of those results could be considered a reasonably prediction, and I think most JMU fans (and outside observers) would agree a winning first season would be a success. Winning 6 games, or 7, won’t be “huge” IMO (as has been stated by some JMU faithful) as a winning season is expected and the standard that’s been established.

Go Dukes!

(06-21-2022 04:47 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(06-20-2022 10:33 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  I think a lot of this is going to depend on if your players can stay healthy and adapt to the speed and depth of FBS on a week to week basis.

I think your comment is a gross simplification, and frankly, a bit naive.

The “speed” of the game? You hear that from amateur analysts, but honestly, what does that mean? Foot speed? The speed of recognizing what your opponent is trying to accomplish on any given play? Seriously? “Speed” (from game to game) throughout the season won’t be an issue on any level for JMU. If you honestly believe the “speed” of G5 games will challenge JMU you haven’t been following the JMU football program over the last decade. Oh, and there’s a strong likelihood JMU will start a 5th year FBS transfer at QB who won’t be “surprised” by the mythical “speed” of the game. You can dismiss “speed” of the game as a bogus concern.

Speed is most definitely a factor and to think otherwise is a bit naïve. You can throw size in there as well. As you know the level of talent/speed/size goes P5>G5>FCS and in the FCS there's only a few schools with comparable players to JMU(went 1-2 against those teams last year - Montana, ndsu, nova btw). So you cant focus on just one or two playmakers to stop a team now. Imagine a team with more than 1 campbell receiver that tore us up, the ndsu full back, the receiver from VMI - those are G5 or better level players and we will be seeing more of them on a week to week basis. D-lineman are also faster and bigger than the FCS level which is exactly why they are not playing FCS football. JMU will have to adjust
Also it's great that we most likely will start a 5th year FBS qb but that same qb is on his third school which to me screams mediocrity.