https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...need-solve

Forget shiny new facilities and weight rooms. The Big Ten and SEC should be finding ways to leverage revenues that project to be as much as double that of their peers in a few years to distance themselves on the field. The other power leagues should be using brain power to find creative ways to keep up. in the mid-2020s, Navigate Research projects that each Big Ten and SEC school will be making in the neighborhood of $100 million in league payouts and the next three leagues -- ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12 -- will be taking in about half that.

(05-13-2022 03:27 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...need-solve

Forget shiny new facilities and weight rooms. The Big Ten and SEC should be finding ways to leverage revenues that project to be as much as double that of their peers in a few years to distance themselves on the field. The other power leagues should be using brain power to find creative ways to keep up. in the mid-2020s, Navigate Research projects that each Big Ten and SEC school will be making in the neighborhood of $100 million in league payouts and the next three leagues -- ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12 -- will be taking in about half that.

That's going to take more than brain power. The reality is there are no magic bullets that can make a significant dent in the revenue gap.

You just have to wonder how long plums like USC, NC, Florida State, Clemson, and Washington would stand pat with their existing conference.

Great column. Pretty much agree with all of it.

We've gotten here bc of naive individuals who have been mostly isolated from real world economics.

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The problem with expecting university presidents to solve any big issues in athletics is that most of them think athletics is a distraction from their real job of running a large university. That's probably even more true for presidents of the most elite universities, even if the university's teams are "big time" in sports. The president of the University of Michigan, for example, probably thinks something like: My job is to run one of the best public universities in the world, not to be the GM of a football or basketball team. We pay our AD more than $1 million/year to deal with athletics and to do it very well. For any issues that require presidential decisions, his job is to vet every option thoroughly and make me look good by recommending the correct decision.

Sensational article and all accounts are 100% spot on.

From a realignment perspective, athletic brands like Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington simply will not be able to sit-by idly while all other members in the B1G and SEC are making double what they are. It's what led Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Conferences, namely the SEC and B1G, are going to be the two mega-powers running the show. I truly think we end up seeing the AAU PAC schools seek an invitation to the Big Ten, while the other programs in the ACC (FSU, Clemson, etc.) seek an SEC invitation.

In another 30 years, or so, I think we will end up seeing break-offs of these mega-conferences where splits occur (thus forming separate leagues again). The money will be great for many years, but ultimately, only one winner will be had from each entity. More of these power programs will lower in stature and prestige because there does have to be a bottom. We could very well see a return to the way leagues looked in the 80's (smaller, more compact) way down the road. However, growth and expansion is the name of the game right now for the two big dogs. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Don’t rule out the PRO model.

“There are obstacles to breakaways -- the educational component of college sports, Title IX and the billion-dollar NCAA tournament contract. That's why revolutions and college leaders choosing the path are so important.”

And don’t rule out the separate postseasons.

“Could the SEC take its ball and start its own postseason? Could they dare the Alliance to put together a playoff and play the winner? Holding hands and working together failed so far. And the individualization of leagues is going to forge the future of college athletics a lot more than someone in Indianapolis.”

(05-13-2022 03:36 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  You just have to wonder how long plums like USC, NC, Florida State, Clemson, and Washington would stand pat with their existing conference.

Not long for Nos. 2, 3 and 4 on that list.

We'll see how long it takes until the Pac-12 geography hurdles are or are not determined to be insurmountable (for now).

Interesting note on direct flight times:

Raleigh/Durham to Syracuse: 1 hour, 32 minutes

RDU to Miami: 1:42

RDU to Lincoln, Neb.: 2:35

Seattle to Los Angeles: 2:11

LAX to Lincoln: 3:02

Sea-Tac to Lincoln: 3:12

So the flight for UNC and Duke to Nebraska and vice-versa — the farthest trip for any schools among either the current BIG members and most frequently mentioned expansion candidates — is about an hour longer than UNC and Duke's farthest ACC flights.

Meanwhile, USC and Washington, for example, would be looking at 3 hour-plus flights to the closest B1G school.

Good reminder of just how far away the West Coast is from most other population centers around the country.

From the article linked above:

Recently, Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick predicted to SI.com that some type of break off of Division I is "inevitable." But that may actually come in the form of a pull-up instead of a breakup. Meaning, the programs with enough strength from the ACC, Pac-12 and Big 12 position themselves to join the highest revenue leagues.

Hmmm ...

Have we now reached the point where the "realignment is over for the foreseeable future" crowd is now in the minority?

(05-13-2022 05:05 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:36 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  You just have to wonder how long plums like USC, NC, Florida State, Clemson, and Washington would stand pat with their existing conference.

Not long for Nos. 2, 3 and 4 on that list.

We'll see how long it takes until the Pac-12 geography hurdles are or are not determined to be an insurmountable hurdle.

Interesting note on direct flight times:

Raleigh/Durham to Syracuse: 1 hour, 32 minutes

RDU to Miami: 1:42

RDU to Lincoln, Neb.: 2:35

Seattle to Los Angeles: 2:11

LAX to Lincoln: 3:02

Sea-Tac to Lincoln: 3:12

So the flight for UNC and Duke to Nebraska and vice-versa — which would be the farthest trip for any schools among either the current BIG members and most frequently mentioned expansion candidates — would be about an hour longer than UNC and Duke's farthest ACC trips.

Meanwhile, USC and Washington, for example, would be looking at 3-plus flights to the closest B1G school.

Good reminder of just how far away the West Coast is be from most other population centers around the country.

I’ve always said that people overrate how far the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast are actually physically away from in each other in the Eastern half of the US while underrating how far the major cities are from each other in the Western half of the US. The distances in the Eastern half of the US are really more psychological and cultural as opposed to geographical.

I appreciate the article being posted, but I don't think those issues are "real", in the sense that IMO there is nothing to be done about them.

The SEC and B1G are going to make a lot more money than the others, the "P5" concept is dead, it's now a P2. Nothing IMO will change that.

(05-13-2022 05:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I appreciate the article being posted, but I don't think those issues are "real", in the sense that IMO there is nothing to be done about them.

The SEC and B1G are going to make a lot more money than the others, the "P5" concept is dead, it's now a P2. Nothing IMO will change that.

I was wondering if I was going to be the only one to find this article to be so much word salad and hand wringing and very little on direction.

For instance in the SEC Sankey, and Slive before him, had the largess and trust to forge some change. I feel Delaney was the same. Presidents therefore are not as obfuscatory as Thamel paints them to be. He also, IMO, intentionally paints breakaway as unlikely citing presidents. Many presidents simply want larger revenue streams and are smart enough to see the changed dynamics of the NCAA and also recognize its impotence. At least in our climes there is no aversion to the concept.

I feel he got two things right. The SEC and B1G can distance themselves by focusing on the quality of players they get. And as Kavanaugh intimated each conference is encouraged to chart its own course.

Everything else will shake out accordingly.

(05-13-2022 04:44 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  “Could the SEC take its ball and start its own postseason? Could they dare the Alliance to put together a playoff and play the winner? Holding hands and working together failed so far. And the individualization of leagues is going to forge the future of college athletics a lot more than someone in Indianapolis.”

I honestly think it is more likely that the B1G and PAC "break away" and call the Rose Bowl Champ the "National Champion" than it is that the B1G agrees to that style of post season.

The SEC vs Alliance Title game is an interesting idea and probably one the SEC should push for.

(05-13-2022 05:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 05:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I appreciate the article being posted, but I don't think those issues are "real", in the sense that IMO there is nothing to be done about them.

The SEC and B1G are going to make a lot more money than the others, the "P5" concept is dead, it's now a P2. Nothing IMO will change that.

I was wondering if I was going to be the only one to find this article to be so much word salad and hand wringing and very little on direction.

For instance in the SEC Sankey, and Slive before him, had the largess and trust to forge some change. I feel Delaney was the same. Presidents therefore are not as obfuscatory as Thamel paints them to be. He also, IMO, intentionally paints breakaway as unlikely citing presidents. Many presidents simply want larger revenue streams and are smart enough to see the changed dynamics of the NCAA and also recognize its impotence. At least in our climes there is no aversion to the concept.

I feel he got two things right. The SEC and B1G can distance themselves by focusing on the quality of players they get. And as Kavanaugh intimated each conference is encouraged to chart its own course.

Everything else will shake out accordingly.

You weren't alone. It was a word salad and terribly written but par for the course.

Quote:Forget shiny new facilities and weight rooms. The Big Ten and SEC should be finding ways to leverage revenues that project to be as much as double that of their peers in a few years to distance themselves on the field. The other power leagues should be using brain power to find creative ways to keep up.

There is only one way for the Big Ten and SEC to use their TV money "to distance themselves": Use those millions to pay the best football and basketball players, instead of only using it to make the coaches and ADs multi-millionaires or to put an HDTV in every locker and a water slide behind the practice field.

NIL is a band-aid. If you leave player compensation to the boosters, that billionaire booster at Miami can outbid Florida's boosters. Why should Florida let that happen when they have $50 million more than Miami in annual athletic revenue? If you're running an SEC or Big Ten program, the real "bang for the buck" is in cutting off big slices of that TV money and serving them up to 5-star recruits.

(05-13-2022 05:05 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:36 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  You just have to wonder how long plums like USC, NC, Florida State, Clemson, and Washington would stand pat with their existing conference.

Not long for Nos. 2, 3 and 4 on that list.

We'll see how long it takes until the Pac-12 geography hurdles are or are not determined to be an insurmountable hurdle.

Interesting note on direct flight times:

Raleigh/Durham to Syracuse: 1 hour, 32 minutes

RDU to Miami: 1:42

RDU to Lincoln, Neb.: 2:35

Seattle to Los Angeles: 2:11

LAX to Lincoln: 3:02

Sea-Tac to Lincoln: 3:12

So the flight for UNC and Duke to Nebraska and vice-versa — which would be the farthest trip for any schools among either the current BIG members and most frequently mentioned expansion candidates — would be about an hour longer than UNC and Duke's farthest ACC trips.

Meanwhile, USC and Washington, for example, would be looking at 3 hour-plus flights to the closest B1G school.

Good reminder of just how far away the West Coast is be from most other population centers around the country.

Which is why a 48 team P2, with 8-9 P12 teams joining BIG makes the most sense on a macro level. It also best preserves the Rose Bowl and tradition.

Why would BIG do it? Well, if SEC/ESPN liquidate ACC, they’ll need to shore up the Pac12 or risk not having the mass. The Alliance would be dead, but letting the P12 waste away, risking USC from going independent, would leave the BIG on its own.

It can be done from the P12 side getting an unequal revenue to BIG. Joining the big 10 allows them to drop 3-4 least valuable. The remaining are more valuable in BIG than P12. They also get better carriage and revenue on their network. That should get them much closer to P2 money. They may want P2, but where else would they go to get better? USC could go independent. They could do just top 6 and maybe equal revenue?

(05-13-2022 05:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

Quote:Forget shiny new facilities and weight rooms. The Big Ten and SEC should be finding ways to leverage revenues that project to be as much as double that of their peers in a few years to distance themselves on the field. The other power leagues should be using brain power to find creative ways to keep up.

There is only one way for the Big Ten and SEC to use their TV money "to distance themselves": Use those millions to pay the best football and basketball players, instead of only using it to make the coaches and ADs multi-millionaires or to put an HDTV in every locker and a water slide behind the practice field.

NIL is a band-aid. If you leave player compensation to the boosters, that billionaire booster at Miami can outbid Florida's boosters. Why should Florida let that happen when they have $50 million more than Miami in annual athletic revenue? If you're running an SEC or Big Ten program, the real "bang for the buck" is in cutting off big slices of that TV money and serving them up to 5-star recruits.

Agree, although it’s not that hard to work the TV money to donors/NIL.
I mean, they could just simply make it known to their donors to make their current gifts to the NIL fund, rather than the school If they refused, it could still be redirected depending on how comf

(05-13-2022 04:03 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Which is why a 48 team P2, with 8-9 P12 teams joining BIG makes the most sense on a macro level. It also best preserves the Rose Bowl and tradition.

Why would BIG do it? Well, if SEC/ESPN liquidate ACC, they’ll need to shore up the Pac12 or risk not having the mass. The Alliance would be dead, but letting the P12 waste away, risking USC from going independent, would leave the BIG on its own.

Not sure it's ever been alive, but I think I see your point