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At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
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ballantyneapp Offline
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Post: #261
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-28-2022 10:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 08:38 AM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 01:31 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 06:57 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ESPN is on the hook for 40 FB games on TV.
that not gonna change.

with 14 schools, ESPN+ gains the extra games
ESPN+ loss content from C-USA
that's a wash

[Image: 3f2.jpeg]


Aresco is trying like mad to get the best settlement he can by the Big 12 three; so he can bring in the 6 new AAC programs with their inventory.

Everyone will fight it out for the linear ESPN/ABC spots, and the rest will go to streaming. It will be that added competition that will drive investment from the bottom-up.

Competition is what has made the American successful to this point. In some ways Aresco is anxious for that new blood to fuel more gains (as he counts the money from the B12 three).


Uhh the 40 games absolutely can change. ESPN has a composition clause that allows them to open up the contract. They can renegotiate terms. That includes payout and contracted games.

The reports I've read say ESPN was willing to keep the contract terms the same if the AAC added these six schools. True or not? I don't know.

But let's assume it is true. This is still a bad situation for the AAC legacy members, because now there are those 40 spots to be divided among 14 teams instead of 11.

we'll see, it certainly could be true, but I imagine now that ESPN/AAC know exactly when the B12 teams are leaving, negotiations are happening in earnest.
04-28-2022 12:04 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #262
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-28-2022 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:43 AM)e-parade Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:30 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 10:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  [quote='ballantyneapp' pid='18213653' dateline='1651153081']
[quote='TroyTBoy' pid='18213437' dateline='1651127517']
[quote='templefootballfan' pid='18211352' dateline='1651017464']
ESPN is on the hook for 40 FB games on TV.
that not gonna change.

with 14 schools, ESPN+ gains the extra games
ESPN+ loss content from C-USA
that's a wash

Actually, ESPN's commitment is to broadcast a minimum of 40 football games on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, or ABC.

They may opt to broadcast more than 40 AAC games, some or most seasons, if they believe that the AAC is likely to have a sufficient number of high viewership games.

.

Honest question since I don't know the details:

Is there a requirement for number of games on each network? Or would it be potentially possible for everything to be on the preferred ABC/ESPN or for everything to be on the less preferred ESPN2/ESPNU sets? Or instead of everything, just most in one place I suppose.

The AAC press release announcing the 2019 deal said:

Football

A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 ....

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

Since this is a hotly debated topic, the rest of the section specifying ESPN's football broadcasting of AAC football games is also of interest:

Football

"A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks."

"A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."

"The American Championship game will be televised each year on ABC or ESPN."

"New to ESPN’s TV rights beginning in 2020-21 are all Navy-controlled football games versus Notre Dame, plus first pick of the remaining Navy-controlled football games each year (excluding any games versus Army and Air Force). Beyond select Navy football games and select men’s basketball games, all conference controlled football and men’s basketball games from The American will air on an ESPN network or ESPN+."

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

NOTE: What this seems to indicate is that at least 20 games will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, and an additional ~20 games will be broadcasted on ESPNU, bringing the total to a minimum of 40 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.

Thus, if - for example - 22 AAC games happen to be broadcasted on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 in a given season, at least 18 AAC games would have to be broadcasted on ESPNU.

.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2022 12:20 PM by Milwaukee.)
04-28-2022 12:17 PM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #263
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
Thanks for the responses. So there is a minimum for across 3 networks (ABC/ESPN/ESPN2), but outside of the Championship game being on either ESPN or ABC, all of the games can appear on any of those networks. That "all" covers anywhere from the minimum of 19 up to the full 40 overall (though I guess technically if they're killing it in the ratings it could be more).

So worst case scenario would be the Championship game on ESPN/ABC, 19 games on ESPN2, 20 games on ESPNU. I doubt this is what would happen, especially with the Navy/ND game being a hot property and likely to go on ABC/ESPN.

Best case scenario would be 40 games on ABC/ESPN (also unlikely).
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2022 12:25 PM by e-parade.)
04-28-2022 12:25 PM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Post: #264
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-28-2022 12:17 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:43 AM)e-parade Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:30 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 10:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  [quote='ballantyneapp' pid='18213653' dateline='1651153081']
[quote='TroyTBoy' pid='18213437' dateline='1651127517']
[quote='templefootballfan' pid='18211352' dateline='1651017464']
ESPN is on the hook for 40 FB games on TV.
that not gonna change.

with 14 schools, ESPN+ gains the extra games
ESPN+ loss content from C-USA
that's a wash

Actually, ESPN's commitment is to broadcast a minimum of 40 football games on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, or ABC.

They may opt to broadcast more than 40 AAC games, some or most seasons, if they believe that the AAC is likely to have a sufficient number of high viewership games.

.

Honest question since I don't know the details:

Is there a requirement for number of games on each network? Or would it be potentially possible for everything to be on the preferred ABC/ESPN or for everything to be on the less preferred ESPN2/ESPNU sets? Or instead of everything, just most in one place I suppose.

The AAC press release announcing the 2019 deal said:

Football

A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 ....

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

Since this is a hotly debated topic, the rest of the section specifying ESPN's football broadcasting of AAC football games is also of interest:

Football

"A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks."

"A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."

"The American Championship game will be televised each year on ABC or ESPN."

"New to ESPN’s TV rights beginning in 2020-21 are all Navy-controlled football games versus Notre Dame, plus first pick of the remaining Navy-controlled football games each year (excluding any games versus Army and Air Force). Beyond select Navy football games and select men’s basketball games, all conference controlled football and men’s basketball games from The American will air on an ESPN network or ESPN+."

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

NOTE: What this seems to indicate is that at least 20 games will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, and an additional ~20 games will be broadcasted on ESPNU, bringing the total to a minimum of 40 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.

Thus, if - for example - 22 AAC games happen to be broadcasted on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 in a given season, at least 18 AAC games would have to be broadcasted on ESPNU.

.


It would be an interesting quantitative study if someone charted the number of viewers each non-P5 conference has brought in.

Almost every year since it's name switch from the OBE, the AAC has dominated the Top 25 Narrative (i.e. the Access Bowl chase) and that has powered significantly better viewership than any other non-P5 conference.

It's the reason the AAC landed the Billion dollar ESPN deal. The viewers were there. Conferences like the MAC/MWC/Sun Belt have had a hard time grabbing viewers in large numbers.

That's why when people try to argue the merits of another conference, like the MWC, they completely miss (or ignore) the greater picture of viewership - and the role the AAC's dominance of the NY6 position has played in capturing those viewers.

I'd argue that the top AAC brands have gotten a ton more exposure than most teams in the P5.

Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

[Image: Eh5_JA0U4AEetMt?format=jpg&name=small]
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2022 02:14 AM by TroyTBoy.)
05-03-2022 02:04 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #265
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
Short term the AAC may take a step back. Long term it will dominate once again.
05-03-2022 08:43 AM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #266
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 12:17 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:43 AM)e-parade Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:30 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Actually, ESPN's commitment is to broadcast a minimum of 40 football games on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, or ABC.

They may opt to broadcast more than 40 AAC games, some or most seasons, if they believe that the AAC is likely to have a sufficient number of high viewership games.

.

Honest question since I don't know the details:

Is there a requirement for number of games on each network? Or would it be potentially possible for everything to be on the preferred ABC/ESPN or for everything to be on the less preferred ESPN2/ESPNU sets? Or instead of everything, just most in one place I suppose.

The AAC press release announcing the 2019 deal said:

Football

A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 ....

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

Since this is a hotly debated topic, the rest of the section specifying ESPN's football broadcasting of AAC football games is also of interest:

Football

"A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks."

"A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."

"The American Championship game will be televised each year on ABC or ESPN."

"New to ESPN’s TV rights beginning in 2020-21 are all Navy-controlled football games versus Notre Dame, plus first pick of the remaining Navy-controlled football games each year (excluding any games versus Army and Air Force). Beyond select Navy football games and select men’s basketball games, all conference controlled football and men’s basketball games from The American will air on an ESPN network or ESPN+."

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

NOTE: What this seems to indicate is that at least 20 games will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, and an additional ~20 games will be broadcasted on ESPNU, bringing the total to a minimum of 40 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.

Thus, if - for example - 22 AAC games happen to be broadcasted on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 in a given season, at least 18 AAC games would have to be broadcasted on ESPNU.

.


It would be an interesting quantitative study if someone charted the number of viewers each non-P5 conference has brought in.

Almost every year since it's name switch from the OBE, the AAC has dominated the Top 25 Narrative (i.e. the Access Bowl chase) and that has powered significantly better viewership than any other non-P5 conference.

It's the reason the AAC landed the Billion dollar ESPN deal. The viewers were there. Conferences like the MAC/MWC/Sun Belt have had a hard time grabbing viewers in large numbers.

That's why when people try to argue the merits of another conference, like the MWC, they completely miss (or ignore) the greater picture of viewership - and the role the AAC's dominance of the NY6 position has played in capturing those viewers.

I'd argue that the top AAC brands have gotten a ton more exposure than most teams in the P5.

Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

2021 Conference Controlled Inventory Viewership:
B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

2021 Total Viewership:
B10 215,326,000
SEC 184,869,000
B12 100,283,000
ACC 80,979,000
P12 79,623,000
AAC 46,422,000
mwc 15,332,000
SBC 10,302,000
MAC 11,358,000
CUSA 5,746,000

That's all pretty consistent with the previous handful of years. AAC gets 30-40% of the lowest viewed contract-bowl-conferences and around 15% of the top 2. AAC viewership dwarfs any of the G4s. (And all the primary media rights contracts dollars follow the viewership ratios pretty closely.)
Of note for Sun Belt 2021 reflects their new and vastly expanded ESPN coverage - up to 15 games on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU compared to the AACs 5 on ABC, 20 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 and 40 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU. IN other words this is ALREADY the improved Sun Belt exposure - not much improvement left to come.
05-03-2022 07:51 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #267
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(04-26-2022 06:57 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ESPN is on the hook for 40 FB games on TV...ESPN+ gains the extra games...

Things may work out better for the AAC than that. Moreover, strictly speaking, the many AAC games that will be broadcasted on ESPN+ can also be considered "FB games on TV," since they will be viewable on TV.*

*https://www.whattowatch.com/how-to/how-watch-espn-your-tv

.

ESPN will broadcast a minimum of 40 football games on ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, or ESPNU, with a minimum of 20 football games being broadcasted on ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC.

ESPN may well choose to broadcast more than 20 games on ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC, and it may choose to broadcast more than 20 games on ESPNU.

One of the reasons it may do so is that it will have a greater variety of AAC games to broadcast, since it will have 32% more AAC home games to broadcast during conference play each October and November.

Due to the addition of the CUSA6, there may be more regional/rivalry games with good viewership potential than the AAC has had in recent years (e.g., UTSA vs. UNT, UTSA vs. SMU, UNT vs. SMU, UTSA vs. UAB, UTSA vs. Navy, Memphis vs. UAB, UNT vs. Tulsa, Tulane vs. Rice, Tulane vs. UAB, ECU vs. Charlotte, FAU vs. USF). The novelty/curiosity factor may give the reconfigured AAC a viewership boost in its first 2-3 seasons.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

In addition, due to the expansion of the AAC, there may be a noticeable increase in the number of 10+win teams in the conference going forward, since the larger conferences tend to have more dominant teams that win a slew of games vs. the less competitive teams in their conferences.#

For example, the four 14+ member P5 conferences (avg. 14.25 teams) had an average of 2.92 teams per year with 10+ wins in 2018, 2019, and 2021, while the six FBS conferences with 10-12 teams (avg. 11.16 teams) only had an average of 2.33 teams per year with 10+ wins.

Since the vast majority (88%) of the teams in the final AP top 25 have had 10+ wins, the conferences that have had the most teams with 10+ wins have tended to be extremely well-represented in the final AP top 25. Specifically, they have had an average of 24% more teams in the final AP top 25 in the past 3 full seasons - - a percentage that corresponds with their average of 25% more 10+win teams.

The take-home message is that conferences with more teams tend to have more teams with 10+ wins, and that teams with 10+ wins are more likely to end up in the final AP top 25.

If this pattern applies to the AAC over the next few years, the expanded AAC may, over time, tend to have more teams with 10+ wins, and may as a result tend to have as many or more final AP top 25 teams than it has had.^

^Since its inception, the AAC has had a total of 20 teams with (the % equivalent of) 10+ wins and 18 teams that ended their seasons in the final AP top 25 - - an average of 2.0 teams per year in the final AP top 25 (2.6 top 25 teams per year between 2017 & 2022).

If the law of averages applies, the conference - which has only had 2.2 teams per year with the equivalent of 10+ wins since its inception - would be predicted to have approximately 2.775 teams per year with 10+ wins and would thus be predicted to have a corresponding increase in the number of top 25 teams.~

~The law of averages is, of course, neutral with regard to whether the AAC remainers or CUSA6 teams would be more likely to have 10+win seasons. One possibility is that the stronger AAC FB remainers (e.g., SMU & Memphis), may win a slew of games vs. CUSA6 teams. SMU (equiv. of 8.2 wins/yr in 2020 & '21) could become a perennial top 25 program by playing 2-3 games/yr vs. CUSA6 teams, rather than playing UC, UH, & UCF. Memphis could do so, as well.
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2022 12:59 AM by Milwaukee.)
05-03-2022 10:45 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-03-2022 10:45 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  ~The law of averages is, of course, neutral with regard to whether the AAC remainers or CUSA6 teams would be more likely to have 10+win seasons. One possibility is that the stronger AAC FB remainers (e.g., SMU & Memphis), may win a slew of games vs. CUSA6 teams. SMU (equiv. of 8.2 wins/yr in 2020 & '21) could become a perennial top 25 program by playing 2-3 games/yr vs. CUSA6 teams, rather than playing UC, UH, & UCF. Memphis could do so, as well.

If the AAC goes back to divisions, SMU for example will not play UAB, FAU, or Charlotte every year. So they will benefit from playing Rice, UTSA and 1 or 2 of them, instead of UC, UH, & UCF every year.
05-04-2022 11:13 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #269
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

And yet, that added up to another peanut deal for the AAC, a $7m a year deal that was way way out of the ballpark of the P5, nothing like a "P6" deal should look, IMO. Yes, better than the MW's $4.5m deal, but not all that much better. And the MW gets a new deal in a few years, the AAC waits until 2032.

So to me, that means UCF, Memphis and Houston were just not that valuable, despite these numbers posted about national TV broadcasts.
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2022 11:55 AM by quo vadis.)
05-04-2022 11:52 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-04-2022 11:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

And yet, that added up to another peanut deal for the AAC, a $7m a year deal that was way way out of the ballpark of the P5, nothing like a "P6" deal should look, IMO. Yes, better than the MW's $4.5m deal, but not all that much better. And the MW gets a new deal in a few years, the AAC waits until 2032.

So to me, that means UCF, Memphis and Houston were just not that valuable, despite these numbers posted about national TV broadcasts.

Just my opinion, but I think the exposure was the difference maker in the "P6" level rankings. Impossible to know whether SDSU was as good or better than Cincy last year, or CCU the year before, or whether Air Force was as good as Memphis in 2019. The fact of the matter is, the AAC kept getting the nod if the standings were remotely close, and I attribute that to being on tv, and being on in a relevant time zone.
05-04-2022 12:18 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-04-2022 12:18 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 11:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

And yet, that added up to another peanut deal for the AAC, a $7m a year deal that was way way out of the ballpark of the P5, nothing like a "P6" deal should look, IMO. Yes, better than the MW's $4.5m deal, but not all that much better. And the MW gets a new deal in a few years, the AAC waits until 2032.

So to me, that means UCF, Memphis and Houston were just not that valuable, despite these numbers posted about national TV broadcasts.

Just my opinion, but I think the exposure was the difference maker in the "P6" level rankings. Impossible to know whether SDSU was as good or better than Cincy last year, or CCU the year before, or whether Air Force was as good as Memphis in 2019. The fact of the matter is, the AAC kept getting the nod if the standings were remotely close, and I attribute that to being on tv, and being on in a relevant time zone.

I agree and disagree. I agree that the AAC has built up a big benefit of the doubt vs other Gs, but I am not sure that TV exposure is the reason. I would actually give credit to the "P6" campaign. The "P6" campaign did not work in terms of TV deals or bowl deals, but IMO it did work in creating the perception that the AAC was the clear-cut best "G" football conference, such that the leading AAC team became the putative favorite in the eyes of the media, and the CFP committee, for the Access Bowl spot.

I was fine with Cincy over SDSU last year, the computers had Cincy well ahead all along, and IIRC San Diego State had lost a game before the first CFP rankings came out.

But IMO your reference to 2020 is very apt, when it was Cincy vs Coastal. Computers were useless that season because of a lack of OOC data points, and just eyeballing it, Coastal's resume IMO looked better. They had the two best wins between the two of them during the season, and they played and won two more games than Cincy.

And yet Cincy was consistently 7-8 spots ahead of Coastal in all of the polls, including the CFP rankings. Based on nothing I could think of - except the AAC reputation, which IMO "P6" contributed to. Maybe TV did too.
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2022 12:54 PM by quo vadis.)
05-04-2022 12:45 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-04-2022 12:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 12:18 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 11:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

And yet, that added up to another peanut deal for the AAC, a $7m a year deal that was way way out of the ballpark of the P5, nothing like a "P6" deal should look, IMO. Yes, better than the MW's $4.5m deal, but not all that much better. And the MW gets a new deal in a few years, the AAC waits until 2032.

So to me, that means UCF, Memphis and Houston were just not that valuable, despite these numbers posted about national TV broadcasts.

Just my opinion, but I think the exposure was the difference maker in the "P6" level rankings. Impossible to know whether SDSU was as good or better than Cincy last year, or CCU the year before, or whether Air Force was as good as Memphis in 2019. The fact of the matter is, the AAC kept getting the nod if the standings were remotely close, and I attribute that to being on tv, and being on in a relevant time zone.

I agree and disagree. I agree that the AAC has built up a big benefit of the doubt vs other Gs, but I am not sure that TV exposure is the reason. I would actually give credit to the "P6" campaign. The "P6" campaign did not work in terms of TV deals or bowl deals, but IMO it did work in creating the perception that the AAC was the clear-cut best "G" football conference, such that the leading AAC team became the putative favorite in the eyes of the media, and the CFP committee, for the Access Bowl spot.

I was fine with Cincy over SDSU last year, the computers had Cincy well ahead all along, and IIRC San Diego State had lost a game before the first CFP rankings came out.

But IMO your reference to 2020 is very apt, when it was Cincy vs Coastal. Computers were useless that season because of a lack of OOC data points, and just eyeballing it, Coastal's resume IMO looked better. They had the two best wins between the two of them during the season, and they played and won two more games than Cincy.

And yet Cincy was consistently 7-8 spots ahead of Coastal in all of the polls, including the CFP rankings. Based on nothing I could think of - except the AAC reputation, which IMO "P6" contributed to. Maybe TV did too.

The only other parallel I can draw is that the PAC-12 has make the least amount of playoff spots outside of the MWC/SBC/MAC/CUSA that haven't been. Maybe football is just overall worse out West, but I think it's a visibility issue.

You always come across the random PAC-12 matchup after all the other games are over, but you usually call it a night before it finishes.
05-04-2022 07:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #273
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-04-2022 07:54 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 12:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 12:18 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 11:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

And yet, that added up to another peanut deal for the AAC, a $7m a year deal that was way way out of the ballpark of the P5, nothing like a "P6" deal should look, IMO. Yes, better than the MW's $4.5m deal, but not all that much better. And the MW gets a new deal in a few years, the AAC waits until 2032.

So to me, that means UCF, Memphis and Houston were just not that valuable, despite these numbers posted about national TV broadcasts.

Just my opinion, but I think the exposure was the difference maker in the "P6" level rankings. Impossible to know whether SDSU was as good or better than Cincy last year, or CCU the year before, or whether Air Force was as good as Memphis in 2019. The fact of the matter is, the AAC kept getting the nod if the standings were remotely close, and I attribute that to being on tv, and being on in a relevant time zone.

I agree and disagree. I agree that the AAC has built up a big benefit of the doubt vs other Gs, but I am not sure that TV exposure is the reason. I would actually give credit to the "P6" campaign. The "P6" campaign did not work in terms of TV deals or bowl deals, but IMO it did work in creating the perception that the AAC was the clear-cut best "G" football conference, such that the leading AAC team became the putative favorite in the eyes of the media, and the CFP committee, for the Access Bowl spot.

I was fine with Cincy over SDSU last year, the computers had Cincy well ahead all along, and IIRC San Diego State had lost a game before the first CFP rankings came out.

But IMO your reference to 2020 is very apt, when it was Cincy vs Coastal. Computers were useless that season because of a lack of OOC data points, and just eyeballing it, Coastal's resume IMO looked better. They had the two best wins between the two of them during the season, and they played and won two more games than Cincy.

And yet Cincy was consistently 7-8 spots ahead of Coastal in all of the polls, including the CFP rankings. Based on nothing I could think of - except the AAC reputation, which IMO "P6" contributed to. Maybe TV did too.

The only other parallel I can draw is that the PAC-12 has make the least amount of playoff spots outside of the MWC/SBC/MAC/CUSA that haven't been. Maybe football is just overall worse out West, but I think it's a visibility issue.

You always come across the random PAC-12 matchup after all the other games are over, but you usually call it a night before it finishes.

That's true. Then again, when USC was really strong in the 2000s, and when Oregon was really good in the early 2010s, I don't recall either having trouble getting highly ranked. Both made BCS title games, and Oregon made the CFP playoffs.

IMO, the PAC has missed the playoffs the past several years because their top teams just haven't been top-4 caliber. I can't think of a single year the past 5-6 where I can say "yeah, Stanford had the 4th best season but was left out" or something. So I do not think it is a TV/Time Zone thing.
05-04-2022 08:42 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #274
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-04-2022 08:42 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 07:54 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 12:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 12:18 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 11:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  And yet, that added up to another peanut deal for the AAC, a $7m a year deal that was way way out of the ballpark of the P5, nothing like a "P6" deal should look, IMO. Yes, better than the MW's $4.5m deal, but not all that much better. And the MW gets a new deal in a few years, the AAC waits until 2032.

So to me, that means UCF, Memphis and Houston were just not that valuable, despite these numbers posted about national TV broadcasts.

Just my opinion, but I think the exposure was the difference maker in the "P6" level rankings. Impossible to know whether SDSU was as good or better than Cincy last year, or CCU the year before, or whether Air Force was as good as Memphis in 2019. The fact of the matter is, the AAC kept getting the nod if the standings were remotely close, and I attribute that to being on tv, and being on in a relevant time zone.

I agree and disagree. I agree that the AAC has built up a big benefit of the doubt vs other Gs, but I am not sure that TV exposure is the reason. I would actually give credit to the "P6" campaign. The "P6" campaign did not work in terms of TV deals or bowl deals, but IMO it did work in creating the perception that the AAC was the clear-cut best "G" football conference, such that the leading AAC team became the putative favorite in the eyes of the media, and the CFP committee, for the Access Bowl spot.

I was fine with Cincy over SDSU last year, the computers had Cincy well ahead all along, and IIRC San Diego State had lost a game before the first CFP rankings came out.

But IMO your reference to 2020 is very apt, when it was Cincy vs Coastal. Computers were useless that season because of a lack of OOC data points, and just eyeballing it, Coastal's resume IMO looked better. They had the two best wins between the two of them during the season, and they played and won two more games than Cincy.

And yet Cincy was consistently 7-8 spots ahead of Coastal in all of the polls, including the CFP rankings. Based on nothing I could think of - except the AAC reputation, which IMO "P6" contributed to. Maybe TV did too.

The only other parallel I can draw is that the PAC-12 has make the least amount of playoff spots outside of the MWC/SBC/MAC/CUSA that haven't been. Maybe football is just overall worse out West, but I think it's a visibility issue.

You always come across the random PAC-12 matchup after all the other games are over, but you usually call it a night before it finishes.

That's true. Then again, when USC was really strong in the 2000s, and when Oregon was really good in the early 2010s, I don't recall either having trouble getting highly ranked. Both made BCS title games, and Oregon made the CFP playoffs.

IMO, the PAC has missed the playoffs the past several years because their top teams just haven't been top-4 caliber. I can't think of a single year the past 5-6 where I can say "yeah, Stanford had the 4th best season but was left out" or something. So I do not think it is a TV/Time Zone thing.

I still think it's a factor. With an even record, the East Coast teams seem to get the nod.

Another somewhat related non-performance thing that impacts rankings, again my opinion, is the recency/familiarity thing. I don't think Cincy makes the CFP if they didn't make the NY6 the year before. I think any team has a much harder time getting up in the rankings one year if they weren't around last year. The rankers don't seem to like new faces, even though that shouldn't impact things at all. I call that somewhat related because the combination of being in the rankings last year and being on TV when out West isn't likely has a snowball effect.

Outside of that, parity doesn't seem to help them either. With so few OOC matchups, and most of them taking place at the very beginning of the season, it's really hard to compare conferences. That said, the recipe for success seems to be being a good team in a bad conference(see Clemson. The ACC is the MAC if Clemson wasn't in it the past 5 years). Another conference could hypothetically have a handful of teams as strong as Clemson, but they'll all give each other a loss or two.
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2022 08:09 AM by CoastalJuan.)
05-05-2022 08:07 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #275
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-05-2022 08:07 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 08:42 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 07:54 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 12:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 12:18 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Just my opinion, but I think the exposure was the difference maker in the "P6" level rankings. Impossible to know whether SDSU was as good or better than Cincy last year, or CCU the year before, or whether Air Force was as good as Memphis in 2019. The fact of the matter is, the AAC kept getting the nod if the standings were remotely close, and I attribute that to being on tv, and being on in a relevant time zone.

I agree and disagree. I agree that the AAC has built up a big benefit of the doubt vs other Gs, but I am not sure that TV exposure is the reason. I would actually give credit to the "P6" campaign. The "P6" campaign did not work in terms of TV deals or bowl deals, but IMO it did work in creating the perception that the AAC was the clear-cut best "G" football conference, such that the leading AAC team became the putative favorite in the eyes of the media, and the CFP committee, for the Access Bowl spot.

I was fine with Cincy over SDSU last year, the computers had Cincy well ahead all along, and IIRC San Diego State had lost a game before the first CFP rankings came out.

But IMO your reference to 2020 is very apt, when it was Cincy vs Coastal. Computers were useless that season because of a lack of OOC data points, and just eyeballing it, Coastal's resume IMO looked better. They had the two best wins between the two of them during the season, and they played and won two more games than Cincy.

And yet Cincy was consistently 7-8 spots ahead of Coastal in all of the polls, including the CFP rankings. Based on nothing I could think of - except the AAC reputation, which IMO "P6" contributed to. Maybe TV did too.

The only other parallel I can draw is that the PAC-12 has make the least amount of playoff spots outside of the MWC/SBC/MAC/CUSA that haven't been. Maybe football is just overall worse out West, but I think it's a visibility issue.

You always come across the random PAC-12 matchup after all the other games are over, but you usually call it a night before it finishes.

That's true. Then again, when USC was really strong in the 2000s, and when Oregon was really good in the early 2010s, I don't recall either having trouble getting highly ranked. Both made BCS title games, and Oregon made the CFP playoffs.

IMO, the PAC has missed the playoffs the past several years because their top teams just haven't been top-4 caliber. I can't think of a single year the past 5-6 where I can say "yeah, Stanford had the 4th best season but was left out" or something. So I do not think it is a TV/Time Zone thing.

I still think it's a factor. With an even record, the East Coast teams seem to get the nod.

Another somewhat related non-performance thing that impacts rankings, again my opinion, is the recency/familiarity thing. I don't think Cincy makes the CFP if they didn't make the NY6 the year before. I think any team has a much harder time getting up in the rankings one year if they weren't around last year. The rankers don't seem to like new faces, even though that shouldn't impact things at all. I call that somewhat related because the combination of being in the rankings last year and being on TV when out West isn't likely has a snowball effect.

Outside of that, parity doesn't seem to help them either. With so few OOC matchups, and most of them taking place at the very beginning of the season, it's really hard to compare conferences. That said, the recipe for success seems to be being a good team in a bad conference(see Clemson. The ACC is the MAC if Clemson wasn't in it the past 5 years). Another conference could hypothetically have a handful of teams as strong as Clemson, but they'll all give each other a loss or two.

I think the familiarity thing helps always - an Alabama off to a 5-0 start is always likely to be higher ranked than a Iowa State off to a 5-0 start, because of their historical track records.

Still, I think we have to distinguish P5 from G5. IMO, any P5 that ends up unbeaten will be in the current CFP playoffs, even if they are a low-brand P5 coming out of left field. It just seems extremely unlikely that such a team would ever be left out. In the end, their unbeaten P5 status will overcome that.

For G5, I agree, Cincy's CFP chances were boosted significantly by making the NY6 the year before, just as UCF rose higher in the CFP rankings in 2018 because they went to an NY6 in 2017. G5 are under greater scrutiny.

As for P5 making playoffs, I think there are different paths. As you say, the ACC has gotten in by having one super-team beat up a bunch of bad teams. But otoh, the SEC has gotten teams in by having the best overall conference and several top teams and whoever emerges is put in. The B1G has gotten teams in by being kind of halfway between the SEC/ACC extremes, though not quite as successfully. So for P5 conferences, it seems to me like there are different pathways in. The SEC's being the most successful so far.
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2022 08:17 AM by quo vadis.)
05-05-2022 08:15 AM
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Post: #276
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
Back to the subject posted by the OP. Boise St, San Diego St, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian St. are the only G5 teams I see that have the potential to unseat the AAC at the NY6 table. SOS will be important and will give the AAC the edge.
05-06-2022 07:55 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #277
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 07:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Back to the subject posted by the OP. Boise St, San Diego St, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian St. are the only G5 teams I see that have the potential to unseat the AAC at the NY6 table. SOS will be important and will give the AAC the edge.

I would add Marshall, Liberty and at least one other MWC program (maybe Fresno or Utah State — or even both). There are good number of G5 football programs that are not members of the AAC.
05-06-2022 08:30 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #278
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 07:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Back to the subject posted by the OP. Boise St, San Diego St, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian St. are the only G5 teams I see that have the potential to unseat the AAC at the NY6 table. SOS will be important and will give the AAC the edge.

I think any SBC team that goes undefeated would beat out a 2-loss AAC team, or maybe even an unfamiliar 1-loss team. For instance, if ULaLa went undefeated with a decent P5 win, and Tulane won our conference with 1 loss and no statement win, I could see the SBC getting the nod in that scenario.

Like we discussed above, any G5 champ, even ours, needs to use a "turn signal". i.e. they can't come out of nowhere. A team like Houston who was in the CCG last year would be an example of a team that would be favorably treated this year as compared to a Tulane.
05-06-2022 08:32 AM
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Post: #279
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 08:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 07:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Back to the subject posted by the OP. Boise St, San Diego St, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian St. are the only G5 teams I see that have the potential to unseat the AAC at the NY6 table. SOS will be important and will give the AAC the edge.

I think any SBC team that goes undefeated would beat out a 2-loss AAC team, or maybe even an unfamiliar 1-loss team. For instance, if ULaLa went undefeated with a decent P5 win, and Tulane won our conference with 1 loss and no statement win, I could see the SBC getting the nod in that scenario.

Like we discussed above, any G5 champ, even ours, needs to use a "turn signal". i.e. they can't come out of nowhere. A team like Houston who was in the CCG last year would be an example of a team that would be favorably treated this year as compared to a Tulane.


I agree fully.
05-06-2022 09:11 AM
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Post: #280
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 08:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 07:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Back to the subject posted by the OP. Boise St, San Diego St, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian St. are the only G5 teams I see that have the potential to unseat the AAC at the NY6 table. SOS will be important and will give the AAC the edge.

I think any SBC team that goes undefeated would beat out a 2-loss AAC team, or maybe even an unfamiliar 1-loss team. For instance, if ULaLa went undefeated with a decent P5 win, and Tulane won our conference with 1 loss and no statement win, I could see the SBC getting the nod in that scenario.

Like we discussed above, any G5 champ, even ours, needs to use a "turn signal". i.e. they can't come out of nowhere. A team like Houston who was in the CCG last year would be an example of a team that would be favorably treated this year as compared to a Tulane.

I think the AAC will get some "carryover" affect from Cincy/Houston/UCF where they get more respect than they deserve a la mid 2000s B1G schools, but eventually people will become acclimated to the new AAC

all things being equal- i think in 3 years+ a 1 loss SBC-E team edges out a 1 loss AAC team more than half the time. Of course P5 wins and who you lost to would factor in that.
05-06-2022 09:38 AM
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