(04-26-2022 06:57 PM)templefootballfan Wrote: ESPN is on the hook for 40 FB games on TV...ESPN+ gains the extra games...
Things may work out better for the AAC than that. Moreover, strictly speaking, the many AAC games that will be broadcasted on ESPN+ can also be considered "FB games on TV," since they will be viewable on TV.*
*https://www.whattowatch.com/how-to/how-watch-espn-your-tv
.
ESPN will broadcast a
minimum of 40 football games on ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, or ESPNU, with a
minimum of 20 football games being broadcasted on ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC.
ESPN may well choose to broadcast more than 20 games on ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC, and it may choose to broadcast more than 20 games on ESPNU.
One of the reasons it may do so is that it will have a greater variety of AAC games to broadcast, since it will have 32% more AAC home games to broadcast during conference play each October and November.
Due to the addition of the CUSA6, there may be more regional/rivalry games with good viewership potential than the AAC has had in recent years (e.g., UTSA vs. UNT, UTSA vs. SMU, UNT vs. SMU, UTSA vs. UAB, UTSA vs. Navy, Memphis vs. UAB, UNT vs. Tulsa, Tulane vs. Rice, Tulane vs. UAB, ECU vs. Charlotte, FAU vs. USF). The novelty/curiosity factor may give the reconfigured AAC a viewership boost in its first 2-3 seasons.
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In addition, due to the expansion of the AAC, there may be a noticeable increase in the number of 10+win teams in the conference going forward, since the larger conferences tend to have more dominant teams that win a slew of games vs. the less competitive teams in their conferences.#
For example,
the four 14+ member P5 conferences (avg. 14.25 teams)
had an average of 2.92 teams per year with 10+ wins in 2018, 2019, and 2021,
while the six FBS conferences with 10-12 teams (avg. 11.16 teams)
only had an average of 2.33 teams per year with 10+ wins.
Since the vast majority (88%) of the teams in the final AP top 25 have had 10+ wins, the conferences that have had the most teams with 10+ wins have tended to be extremely well-represented in the final AP top 25. Specifically, they have had an average of 24% more teams in the final AP top 25 in the past 3 full seasons - - a percentage that corresponds with their average of 25% more 10+win teams.
The take-home message is that conferences with more teams tend to have more teams with 10+ wins, and that teams with 10+ wins are more likely to end up in the final AP top 25.
If this pattern applies to the AAC over the next few years, the expanded AAC may, over time, tend to have more teams with 10+ wins, and may as a result tend to have as many or more final AP top 25 teams than it has had.^
^Since its inception, the AAC has had a total of 20 teams with (the % equivalent of) 10+ wins and 18 teams that ended their seasons in the final AP top 25 - - an average of 2.0 teams per year in the final AP top 25 (2.6 top 25 teams per year between 2017 & 2022).
If the law of averages applies, the conference - which has only had 2.2 teams per year with the equivalent of 10+ wins since its inception - would be predicted to have approximately 2.775 teams per year with 10+ wins and would thus be predicted to have a corresponding increase in the number of top 25 teams.~
~The law of averages is, of course, neutral with regard to whether the AAC remainers or CUSA6 teams would be more likely to have 10+win seasons. One possibility is that the stronger AAC FB remainers (e.g., SMU & Memphis), may win a slew of games vs. CUSA6 teams. SMU (equiv. of 8.2 wins/yr in 2020 & '21) could become a perennial top 25 program by playing 2-3 games/yr vs. CUSA6 teams, rather than playing UC, UH, & UCF. Memphis could do so, as well.