Your opinion: The most likely replacement members if Memphis, USF, & SMU end up in the Big 12.

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Questions:

1. Would ESPN permit the AAC to add teams from the MAC or Sun Belt?

2. Would the MWC be able to keep the AAC from raiding the MWC?

3. Would the AAC be willing to add any FCS to FBS members?

4. Would the AAC add any more non-FB members beyond Wichita State?

All 3 of them? I'm not sure why the B12 would want to go to 15 (unless you're predicting someone else leaves in this as well).

IF they take 2 more from the AAC, I'd think it would be USF and Memphis. So if the AAC chooses to expand again instead of staying at 12, the #marketz route would lead to FIU and MTSU in order to keep the presence in Florida at 2, and stay in Tennessee.

I don't think they'd be able to take anyone from the MWC at that point, UCONN likely would be off the table as football only. I think Army would still stay indy, and I doubt they'd go the FCS route.

If they go MAC, it'd likely be Buffalo (IMO). Unless UMass does some crazy good stuff the next few years, I doubt we'd be upgraded to being on the list. If our latest coaching hires pay off, it might as best an opportunity as the AAC would get to be back in the Northeast by grabbing us and Buffalo as a pair. Not sure they'd actually want to go back to the Northeast through.

I think the best options would be the the SBC, but if ESPN says no-go on that, it really leaves it as FIU and MTSU as the two, and mostly just to keep the same sort of market presence they currently have (although not as strong and not the same exact parts of the markets).

I went for teams moving whole program.

I think the two most likely would be Buffalo and MTSU. Those are probably the two biggest markets they don't have access to.
Buffalo being in the MAC might be a hard sell for ESPN (but they could be replaced by WKU as far as stability goes).

If ALL of em go (unlikely) I could see the AAC getting picked by SBC and MWC. It'd be interesting to see what the media contracts do at that point

Based on what criteria the powers that be used in the last goaround. I would go with one of Old Dominion or Georgia State with the Sun Belt backloading with Kennesaw State or Chattanooga.

I doubt they’d need to replace all 3 (frankly I don’t think they’ll need to replace any of them in the next decade) but I think that largely depends on who the AAC tv deal is with. If the AAC and SBC are still both with the mouse then they probably turn to C-USA for replacement parts unless ESPN is ok with shuffling some top SBC schools to fill AAC holes.

I say middle Tennessee state, Western Kentucky and FIU. Two of those teams are replacing trips to the areas teams are leaving in Tennessee and Florida. While a downgrade it keeps the same amount of games in the region. You're trading a Texas trip for Kentucky. Western Kentucky is probably the best option left.

The wild card here is we don't know how good the AAC will be in basketball.

If AAC basketball over delivers at 3-4 NCAAs a year that changes the list of who might consider it.

the 3 biggest markets. Buffalo, Conn, UMass

A few thoughts:

* If Memphis, SMU and USF moved to the Big 12 with, say, Boise, I seriously doubt the AAC would be able to "poach" the Mountain West (so forget Colorado State and Air Force).

* UConn and Army would not want to be associated with any part of this hypothetical AAC. Furthermore, either Dakota school paired with a school that does not offer football (say NDSU and Dayton, for example) ... not going to happen. Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, etc. will never be joining any future AAC. Too much instability.

* Given the AAC has made clear it wants high-enrollment universities located within large and growing cities, I could see Georgia State and Old Dominion. Then as a wildcard: UMass. With these three universities, the American would be back up to 14 schools (after the losses of SMU, USF and UM), Temple would have a geographic rival in UMass, and the overall "theme" of the AAC would remain intact. That AAC would actually be rather solid with that group of schools, just was it will be with the incoming six.

I think MTSU, FIU, Georgia State, and Buffalo would be candidates. Maybe ODU as well, but they seem to be excited about the SBC East for now and aren't as big of a market grab as the others mentioned.

I think MTSU and FIU would immediately say yes without a 2nd thought. The rest are in pretty stable setups and might only want in for full payouts vs. reduced cuts.

EDIT: I don't think WKU has a snowballs chance of getting an invite. Market profile is simply not good enough. Best we can hope for is being a backfill option for the SBC or MAC (or that the SBC East grows tired of the SBC West in the next 5-10 years, forms their own leagues and deicides to invite us).

(05-02-2022 02:10 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts:

* If Memphis, SMU and USF moved to the Big 12 with, say, Boise, I seriously doubt the AAC would be able to "poach" the Mountain West (so forget Colorado State and Air Force).

* UConn and Army would not want to be associated with any part of this hypothetical AAC. Furthermore, either Dakota school paired with a school that does not offer football (say NDSU and Dayton, for example) ... not going to happen. Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, etc. will never be joining any future AAC. Too much instability.

* Given the AAC has made clear it wants high-enrollment universities located within large and growing cities, I could see Georgia State and Old Dominion. Then as a wildcard: UMass. With these three universities, the American would be back up to 14 schools (after the losses of SMU, USF and UM), Temple would have a geographic rival in UMass, and the overall "theme" of the AAC would remain intact. That AAC would actually be rather solid with that group of schools, just was it will be with the incoming six.

I think ODU would pass given that they hated a very similarly made up CUSA. Ga State might give it a go. I'd hate to lose them for the SBC, but we could probably get WKU in that case.

I wonder if the AAC would also be looking to replace Navy in the above scenario, but the AAC west would probably still be attractive to them with UTSA and the private schools.

I'd guess some combination of FIU/MTSU/Ga State

(05-02-2022 12:13 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Your opinion: The most likely replacement members if Memphis, USF, & SMU end up in the Big 12.

Just spitballing...

SBC
TXST - Replaces SMU and further shut out MWC from TX.

CUSA
FIU - Replaces USF and once again pair with FAU.
LA Tech - Replaces Memphis and pair with Tulane.

Big 12 wouldn't take only three. The backfills would have to wait on who the 4th team is. AFA would be likely to move if CSU gets a call up. If the AAC loses 2/3 of the schools listed, then they can sit tight and not do anything.

(05-02-2022 03:39 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Big 12 wouldn't take only three. The backfills would have to wait on who the 4th team is. AFA would be likely to move if CSU gets a call up. If the AAC loses 2/3 of the schools listed, then they can sit tight and not do anything.

If they are taking 4 then Boise State, SMU, Memphis, and USF seem like the top candidates to me. I suppose you could insert another MWC team in place of Boise, but they have the most name power right now. Maybe SDSU if you are after West Coast exposure and hoops.

(05-02-2022 03:42 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 03:39 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Big 12 wouldn't take only three. The backfills would have to wait on who the 4th team is. AFA would be likely to move if CSU gets a call up. If the AAC loses 2/3 of the schools listed, then they can sit tight and not do anything.

If they are taking 4 then Boise State, SMU, Memphis, and USF seem like the top candidates to me. I suppose you could insert another MWC team in place of Boise, but they have the most name power right now. Maybe SDSU if you are after West Coast exposure and hoops.

If it's those four, the AAC only needs one backfill to get back to 12. They'd be down to 4 in Texoma + Tulane/Navy in the West. However, you can move Navy East and Air Force could join the AAC West. Losing BSU is almost as big a blow to the MWC as it is to the AAC losing the three listed. So I definitely feel AFA reconsiders residing in the MWC.

Otherwise, MWC might get away with a backfill like Idaho<=>BSU. AAC would add a backfill in the East. I would think WKU and MTSU come to mind first if SBC teams are off limits.

They could even take all three of WKU/MTSU/Liberty and slide UAB west. But if they can't land AFA, I think they work out a deal to get GSU back in the mix. FIU would not be a serious candidate. SBC has easy replacements in Conf USA. JSU could even be considered (should MTSU/WKU join the MAC).

None of them will wind up in the Big 12, so it's a silly poll.

I know some fans are wishing-wanting-pulling for it. But it's extremely unlikely the new media contracts for 2025 (6-10 years one assumes) will have sufficient escalators in it to justify adding any more schools. The Big 12 also dipped below the "mendoza line" in selecting school this time, bringing in a few who are lower value than the average of the remaining 8. The schools not selected have somewhat lower valuations, which will bring down the per school value.

Also to consider, the prior expansion was necessary to rebuild the inventory enough to fill slots for a future contract, with a 9th improving inventory/value by 29%, the 10th a further 22%; meaning the first two schools could be significantly lower value than the other 8, although they were close to equal. Even the 11th increased inventory 10% and even 21% in basketball if a 20 game season (likely); so if a good basketball school, and all selected were, they added value although not much. The 12th is a big negative no matter how you slice it, adding less inventory than their distribution slice, and they being the lowest value school probably brought down the average a small amount. The payoff in the 12th is cleaner scheduling and possible divisions.

But when you go to 13 or 14, any school must be of extremely high value to overcome the net negative of distribution slices versus inventory --if there is any inventory value at all in having an extra game each week for these two schools.

Remember, we are not talking about adding the NJ/NY and DMV cable and recruiting markets here like the B1G did with Maryland and Rutgers (who alone brought $50m a year to the BTN, giving every school in the conference a net extra $2m or so a year). Nor are we talking powerhouse programs like Texas and Oklahoma who raise the stature of even the SEC. None of these schools you are considering brings a massive pay day or a better ranking to the Big 12. So where would the money come from to justify it?

It's just not happening.

note: the list is fine as a starting potential list of replacements should the Big 12 ever get raided and need a school to call up, although a few MWC schools might also be in the mix.

(05-02-2022 02:05 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  the 3 biggest markets. Buffalo, Conn, UMass

That's interesting and might just work.

(05-02-2022 12:56 PM)e-parade Wrote:  All 3 of them? I'm not sure why the B12 would want to go to 15 (unless you're predicting someone else leaves in this as well).

The idea was based on the statement last September by one of the Big 12 search committee members who said he thought the Big 12 would be likely to add Memphis, SMU, USF, and Boise State.