Louisiana would have made the access bowl in 2021 had Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston already been in the Big 12. Same for Coastal in 2020. I'm not sure whether App, Boise, or Memphis would have gotten the edge in 2019 with the SOS Memphis would have lost without Cincy, UCF, and Houston.

AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Louisiana would have made the access bowl in 2021 had Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston already been in the Big 12. Same for Coastal in 2020. I'm not sure whether App, Boise, or Memphis would have gotten the edge in 2019 with the SOS Memphis would have lost without Cincy, UCF, and Houston.

AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

Agree, and it's fascinating to contemplate the possibilities. This could create opportunities for the FBS conferences that have tended to be overlooked, if they can take advantage of it by making a bold move.

Simply adding North Dakota State (or NDSU and S. Dak St.), for example, might be able to make it possible for the MAC or CUSA to vault ahead of one of the other conferences in the football rankings.

The MWC may be favored to jump ahead of the AAC in the FB and BB rankings, at least initially, with the AAC and SBC battling it out for second place, but that could change in a few years.

Much will depend on the evolving coaching situations, and on future realignments. The Big 12 could shake everything up if they add 2 or 4 schools in 2025 or 2026.

If the Big 12 takes 3-4 of the strongest AAC/MWC FB schools, the SBC could take the lead in the football rankings.

If the Big 12 takes strong basketball schools, the effects could hit the MWC and/or the AAC, making CUSA 4.0 more competitive in the conference rankings.

My guess is probably not, but I think the ceilings at UNT and UAB are pretty high for the G5 level. I expect some classic battles between UAB-Memphis and SMU-UNT.

(03-31-2022 07:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m not convinced that AAC dominance will persist. The AAC’s quality decreased while the MWC remained constant and the SBC gained some ground against them.

I think that G5 slot is going to be wide open most years

Wide open for the AAC, MWC, and Sunbelt - maybe. If Boise gets back to dominating the MWC they will take the at large spot 3 out of 4 years going forward. Don't see a dominate team in the new AAC going forward. Most years Navy, Memphis, USF, and SMU will beat each other up from the old AAC and I don't see any of the new teams dominating the conference either. JMO.

Smart money would be on “no”.

I think the AAC will drop back a bit, but not a lot. I think thy still will get as many bids as the other 5 G5 conf get combined. That said in 5 to 6 years, assuming no more losses of teams they will be well on their way back to being the King of the G's. The TV deal both $$ and visibility will guarantee it.

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Louisiana would have made the access bowl in 2021 had Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston already been in the Big 12. Same for Coastal in 2020. I'm not sure whether App, Boise, or Memphis would have gotten the edge in 2019 with the SOS Memphis would have lost without Cincy, UCF, and Houston.

AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

Hard to say for sure ULL or Coastal would have been the choice. Take Cincy, UCF, and UH off the schedule and replace them with Rice, UAB, and Charlotte, then some of the remaining AAC teams suddenly have three more wins and could be ranked above Coastal or ULL.

Something to chew on regarding the AAC:

When you pull out Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston from the conference standings, you’ve got to take a look at what’s left and where they’d be if they weren’t playing that trio:

2021 ECU was 7-5 (5-3) in the regular season. Those 3 conference losses were Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Swap those 3 games for wins against FAU, Charlotte, and UAB and you have a much better looking ECU team.

2021 Tulsa also went 5-3 in conference with 2 of those losses coming from departing schools. Even SMU’s 4-4 looks better after you take away their 2 losses from departing schools.

The key for the G5 is that it’s going to come down to OOC performance. If your conference is winning their OOC games, their champ is going to look better in the eyes of the committee.

That ECU team looks a lot better if their 11-2 (with a win against Tulsa in the CCG) but they still have to answer for that loss to App St.

Mike,
No. You made a huge mistake by adding the CUSA6 and diluting the conference.
Also, the AAC will get less media attention due to all the games you agreed to put on espn +.
The + sucks.

(04-01-2022 09:24 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Mike,
No. You made a huge mistake by adding the CUSA6 and diluting the conference.
Also, the AAC will get less media attention due to all the games you agreed to put on espn +.
The + sucks.

+ is great for fans of the programs involved but bad for exposure and growing brands. I think there is some wiggle room though, if a program is having an exceptional year some of their games can be transitioned to the primary ESPN networks.

The whole premise of this thread is weird. Why phrase it as if it were a 14 team thing and not the makeup of the teams in the conference itself? It doesn't matter if you're at 10/12/14 or whatever if you don't have the right makeup within that number.

Removing the whole 14 team thing from the question though, and having it be "will the AAC maintain their dominance on the NY6 slot?" it leaves me with the short answer of "no."

I've said in a previous thread that I believe it's gone from the AAC's slot to lose, to one where they now need to hope for the top team from other conferences to falter a bit. An undefeated MWC champ would at worst be equal to an undefeated AAC champ, same with 1-loss.

(04-01-2022 09:19 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Louisiana would have made the access bowl in 2021 had Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston already been in the Big 12. Same for Coastal in 2020. I'm not sure whether App, Boise, or Memphis would have gotten the edge in 2019 with the SOS Memphis would have lost without Cincy, UCF, and Houston.

AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

Hard to say for sure ULL or Coastal would have been the choice. Take Cincy, UCF, and UH off the schedule and replace them with Rice, UAB, and Charlotte, then some of the remaining AAC teams suddenly have three more wins and could be ranked above Coastal or ULL.

Loki,

Just curious for your perspective. I know you've been a loyal Rice guy going back to the early 2010's when you and I posted on Frank the Tank's blog when it was active.

I remember you were pretty bummed when Rice was basically left behind in C-USA 3.0 with schools you didn't consider peers. Now that Rice is moving to the AAC West to be in a division that includes three other Texas teams, and includes well respected private schools Tulane, SMU, and Tulsa, as well as the Naval Academy for football, does that provide some sense of relief? Honestly, the AAC West as a division makes plenty of sense, to me. Knowing the SWC days are over, and a Big 12 invitation would require a loooooooot more dominoes to fall to the point it would basically be the AAC all over again, is this kind of an optimum situation for your Owls? I imagine it would. Just from my vantage point, Rice finally seems like a winner in the conference realignment game.

The AAC East I think is more concerning. It's as spread out as it gets in FBS this side of the MWC, where it is so sparsely populated that there is zero choice but to be be scattered. I contend that proximity still matters not just for travel costs, but also for fan interest, i.e., ticket sales. All, of course, would take any P5 invitation. Temple at this point must be there reluctantly, with no real alternatives; I don't buy A-10/FBS Independence or MAC membership as viable alternatives at all. They are kind of stuck. I do wonder if the only thing keeping ECU from considering the SB is the overwhelming exit fees and the *currently* higher media payout. So ECU is also stuck. USF and Memphis have a plausible chance of bouncing to the Big 12 beyond mere wishful thinking. It seems like the only content members might be new members Charlotte, UAB, and FAU.
_____________

As for Louisiana, Coastal, and App, all three finished bowl season with one loss on the season. Louisiana and Coastal finished their respective regular seasons and bowl seasons well ahead of all AAC teams who aren't Big 12-bound. App finished the regular season behind Cotton Bowl-bound Memphis, but Memphis would not have had those two strong wins vs. Cincinnati, so it's debatable who would have come out on top.

I'm just saying no league is going to dominate. The Sun Belt is going to get some teams into the NY6. The AAC will continue to get their share, but not always. The MW will get some in there, too. And then there will be some unpredictable MAC or C-USA team that makes a 13-0 run at some point, though SOS will be weak compared to the other three G5's.

(04-01-2022 09:24 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Mike,
No. You made a huge mistake by adding the CUSA6 and diluting the conference.

Who all would you have added? I'm assuming UAB, but who else?

(04-01-2022 09:58 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:19 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Louisiana would have made the access bowl in 2021 had Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston already been in the Big 12. Same for Coastal in 2020. I'm not sure whether App, Boise, or Memphis would have gotten the edge in 2019 with the SOS Memphis would have lost without Cincy, UCF, and Houston.

AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

Hard to say for sure ULL or Coastal would have been the choice. Take Cincy, UCF, and UH off the schedule and replace them with Rice, UAB, and Charlotte, then some of the remaining AAC teams suddenly have three more wins and could be ranked above Coastal or ULL.

Loki,

Just curious for your perspective. I know you've been a loyal Rice guy going back to the early 2010's when you and I posted on Frank the Tank's blog when it was active.

I remember you were pretty bummed when Rice was basically left behind in C-USA 3.0 with schools you didn't consider peers. Now that Rice is moving to the AAC West to be in a division that includes three other Texas teams, and includes well respected private schools Tulane, SMU, and Tulsa, as well as the Naval Academy for football, does that provide some sense of relief? Honestly, the AAC West as a division makes plenty of sense, to me. Knowing the SWC days are over, and a Big 12 invitation would require a loooooooot more dominoes to fall to the point it would basically be the AAC all over again, is this kind of an optimum situation for your Owls? I imagine it would. Just from my vantage point, Rice finally seems like a winner in the conference realignment game.

The AAC East I think is more concerning. It's as spread out as it gets in FBS this side of the MWC, where it is so sparsely populated that there is zero choice but to be be scattered. I contend that proximity still matters not just for travel costs, but also for fan interest, i.e., ticket sales. All, of course, would take any P5 invitation. Temple at this point must be there reluctantly, with no real alternatives; I don't buy A-10/FBS Independence or MAC membership as viable alternatives at all. They are kind of stuck. I do wonder if the only thing keeping ECU from considering the SB is the overwhelming exit fees and the *currently* higher media payout. So ECU is also stuck. USF and Memphis have a plausible chance of bouncing to the Big 12 beyond mere wishful thinking. It seems like the only content members might be new members Charlotte, UAB, and FAU.
_____________

As for Louisiana, Coastal, and App, all three finished bowl season with one loss on the season. Louisiana and Coastal finished their respective regular seasons and bowl seasons well ahead of all AAC teams who aren't Big 12-bound. App finished the regular season behind Cotton Bowl-bound Memphis, but Memphis would not have had those two strong wins vs. Cincinnati, so it's debatable who would have come out on top.

I'm just saying no league is going to dominate. The Sun Belt is going to get some teams into the NY6. The AAC will continue to get their share, but not always. The MW will get some in there, too. And then there will be some unpredictable MAC or C-USA team that makes a 13-0 run at some point, though SOS will be weak compared to the other three G5's.

In the current world of college athletics, this AAC West is about the best Rice could realistically hope for. SMU is the second most played rivalry in Rice's history (90), behind only Texas (96). For SMU we're the second most behind TCU. The other Texas schools in this conference seem to me to be the second tier of the Texas FBS programs, behind the P5 schools, but ahead of UTEP, Texas State and the new call-ups.


As for the AAC dominating the NY6, I certainly agree that things are much more wide open now. I would even throw the MAC in with the AAC, MWC, and SB. CUSA will take some time to figure out. My comment was only on the counter-factual 'would have'. It's really a 'could have'. If you take the B12 three out you have to take the losses they inflicted out also.

(04-01-2022 10:29 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:58 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 09:19 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(04-01-2022 04:54 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Louisiana would have made the access bowl in 2021 had Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston already been in the Big 12. Same for Coastal in 2020. I'm not sure whether App, Boise, or Memphis would have gotten the edge in 2019 with the SOS Memphis would have lost without Cincy, UCF, and Houston.

AAC dominance is over, and this is going to open wide up.

Hard to say for sure ULL or Coastal would have been the choice. Take Cincy, UCF, and UH off the schedule and replace them with Rice, UAB, and Charlotte, then some of the remaining AAC teams suddenly have three more wins and could be ranked above Coastal or ULL.

Loki,

Just curious for your perspective. I know you've been a loyal Rice guy going back to the early 2010's when you and I posted on Frank the Tank's blog when it was active.

I remember you were pretty bummed when Rice was basically left behind in C-USA 3.0 with schools you didn't consider peers. Now that Rice is moving to the AAC West to be in a division that includes three other Texas teams, and includes well respected private schools Tulane, SMU, and Tulsa, as well as the Naval Academy for football, does that provide some sense of relief? Honestly, the AAC West as a division makes plenty of sense, to me. Knowing the SWC days are over, and a Big 12 invitation would require a loooooooot more dominoes to fall to the point it would basically be the AAC all over again, is this kind of an optimum situation for your Owls? I imagine it would. Just from my vantage point, Rice finally seems like a winner in the conference realignment game.

The AAC East I think is more concerning. It's as spread out as it gets in FBS this side of the MWC, where it is so sparsely populated that there is zero choice but to be be scattered. I contend that proximity still matters not just for travel costs, but also for fan interest, i.e., ticket sales. All, of course, would take any P5 invitation. Temple at this point must be there reluctantly, with no real alternatives; I don't buy A-10/FBS Independence or MAC membership as viable alternatives at all. They are kind of stuck. I do wonder if the only thing keeping ECU from considering the SB is the overwhelming exit fees and the *currently* higher media payout. So ECU is also stuck. USF and Memphis have a plausible chance of bouncing to the Big 12 beyond mere wishful thinking. It seems like the only content members might be new members Charlotte, UAB, and FAU.
_____________

As for Louisiana, Coastal, and App, all three finished bowl season with one loss on the season. Louisiana and Coastal finished their respective regular seasons and bowl seasons well ahead of all AAC teams who aren't Big 12-bound. App finished the regular season behind Cotton Bowl-bound Memphis, but Memphis would not have had those two strong wins vs. Cincinnati, so it's debatable who would have come out on top.

I'm just saying no league is going to dominate. The Sun Belt is going to get some teams into the NY6. The AAC will continue to get their share, but not always. The MW will get some in there, too. And then there will be some unpredictable MAC or C-USA team that makes a 13-0 run at some point, though SOS will be weak compared to the other three G5's.

In the current world of college athletics, this AAC West is about the best Rice could realistically hope for. SMU is the second most played rivalry in Rice's history (90), behind only Texas (96). For SMU we're the second most behind TCU. The other Texas schools in this conference seem to me to be the second tier of the Texas FBS programs, behind the P5 schools, but ahead of UTEP, Texas State and the new call-ups.


As for the AAC dominating the NY6, I certainly agree that things are much more wide open now. I would even throw the MAC in with the AAC, MWC, and SB. CUSA will take some time to figure out. My comment was only on the counter-factual 'would have'. It's really a 'could have'. If you take the B12 three out you have to take the losses they inflicted out also.

I just looked up Rice v AAC W, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Navy, NoTexas, and UTSA are all in the Top 20 of games played with Rice. I had not realized that NoTexas and UTSA had gotten that high.

I’m curious what the dynamics of the AAC West is going to be when in essence you have 5 private schools plus UNT and UTSA. Are those public schools going to be too dogs in football or are the privates and Navy going to be competitive?

(04-01-2022 10:39 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m curious what the dynamics of the AAC West is going to be when in essence you have 5 private schools plus UNT and UTSA. Are those public schools going to be too dogs in football or are the privates and Navy going to be competitive?

Since I was on a records site I pulled up UNT. Their all-time record against those five:

Navy 0-1
Rice 6-5
SMU 4-13
Tulane 0-1
Tulsa 7-17

17-37

Navy is not a private school.

(04-01-2022 11:22 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Navy is not a private school.

No, of course not. The Military academies, though, and this includes schools like The Citadel and VMI, have a history of aligning with, voting with, identifying with the goals of, private schools in and out of their conference. Navy and Army are in otherwise all-private Patriot League. Air Force is in a public league, but that is mainly because it needs geographic relative proximity.

Also, much like a somewhat small (compared to large publics), elite private schools, the Military academies are VERY selective.

VMI and The Citadel align well with SoCon private schools Furman, Wofford, Mercer, and Samford much more than the four other public schools.

(04-01-2022 10:34 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I just looked up Rice v AAC W, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Navy, NoTexas, and UTSA are all in the Top 20 of games played with Rice. I had not realized that NoTexas and UTSA had gotten that high.

I think y'all are tied for UTSA's second most played opponent.

We're first (for 2 more years I guess, until you and UNT pass us).

Small sample sizes are fun.