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UAB (45) at North Texas (75), Thursday 6 January 2022

North Texas is an impressive 8-3 overall and 1-0 in conference play.

Their best win was at Wichita State (75), 62-52. They trailed by 7 at halftime, but scored 20 unanswered points in the second half to cruise to the win. They also beat Drake (84), 57-54 at a neutral site.

Their worst loss was to Buffalo (104), 69-66. This is their only home loss to date. They also lost to Kansas (5), 71-59, and to Miami (93), 69-63. They never led against Kansas. They led Miami by 12 at halftime.

It’s obvious by the scores listed above that North Texas plays a very slow tempo game. In fact their adjusted tempo ranks 357th out of 358 schools. On average they hold the ball for 21.1 seconds on each possession. That ranks 356th. UAB’s time of possession averages 16.0 seconds, which ranks 37th. Two totally different styles to the game.

KenPom has it North Texas 63 - UAB 62.

I would guess a higher scoring game favors UAB.

Tough game. Could see it going either way

We are better than North Texas if playing our game. But they’re very sound and will be tough to beat at home.

It's seemed like we've played at a much slower pace against the better teams we've played - is that just a reflection of our poor shooting numbers and low scoring in those games?

Any TV for it?

(01-03-2022 04:23 PM)jaymay2525 Wrote:  Any TV for it?

CBSSN

(01-03-2022 04:03 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  It's seemed like we've played at a much slower pace against the better teams we've played - is that just a reflection of our poor shooting numbers and low scoring in those games?

KenPom states - We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula: FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA.

The listed possessions for a game are the average between the two teams.

Our lowest possession games (66) have been against ETSU, Saint Louis, and West Virginia. We shot fairly well against Saint Louis, but poorly from three in the other two games.

Our highest possession game (82) was the Millsaps game.

KenPom is predicting an average of only 63 possessions against North Texas. Nothing else comes close!

The North Texas - Drake game had an average of 55 possessions between the two teams. UNT won 57-54.

The UAB-San Francisco game averaged 68 possessions. The South Carolina game averaged 73 possessions.


With all that in mind, UAB’s average tempo results in 69.9 possessions per game right now. UNT is at 61.1 possessions per game.

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

UAB’s Non-Conf. SOS is ranked 287th, while UNT is at 58.

Both teams played four top-100 teams, with UAB going 1-3 and UNT 2-2.

The main difference in non-conference schedules is UNT didn’t play the likes of Alabama A&M (331), Grambling State (330), and Mississippi Valley State (358). The lowest ranked team UNT played was UT Arlington (248).

Both schools played two non-D1 schools. Those games don’t factor into the stats.

They should have revenge on their mind after we swept them at their place last season.

(01-03-2022 05:53 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  Strength of Schedule (SOS)

UAB’s Non-Conf. SOS is ranked 287th, while UNT is at 58.

Both teams played four top-100 teams, with UAB going 1-3 and UNT 2-2.

The main difference in non-conference schedules is UNT didn’t play the likes of Alabama A&M (331), Grambling State (330), and Mississippi Valley State (358). The lowest ranked team UNT played was UT Arlington (248).

Both schools played two non-D1 schools. Those games don’t factor into the stats.

This is why I don't understand NET and Kenpom...how are we ranked ahead of them?

(01-03-2022 06:57 PM)BlazintheAtl1 Wrote:  

(01-03-2022 05:53 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  Strength of Schedule (SOS)

UAB’s Non-Conf. SOS is ranked 287th, while UNT is at 58.

Both teams played four top-100 teams, with UAB going 1-3 and UNT 2-2.

The main difference in non-conference schedules is UNT didn’t play the likes of Alabama A&M (331), Grambling State (330), and Mississippi Valley State (358). The lowest ranked team UNT played was UT Arlington (248).

Both schools played two non-D1 schools. Those games don’t factor into the stats.

This is why I don't understand NET and Kenpom...how are we ranked ahead of them?

Not totally sure, but at the beginning of the season KenPom had UNT at 135 and UAB at 71.

(01-03-2022 06:57 PM)BlazintheAtl1 Wrote:  

(01-03-2022 05:53 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  Strength of Schedule (SOS)

UAB’s Non-Conf. SOS is ranked 287th, while UNT is at 58.

Both teams played four top-100 teams, with UAB going 1-3 and UNT 2-2.

The main difference in non-conference schedules is UNT didn’t play the likes of Alabama A&M (331), Grambling State (330), and Mississippi Valley State (358). The lowest ranked team UNT played was UT Arlington (248).

Both schools played two non-D1 schools. Those games don’t factor into the stats.

This is why I don't understand NET and Kenpom...how are we ranked ahead of them?

in our range, it seems to me that the teams you lose to are huge.
UAB lost to #35, 45 and 95
UNT lost to #5, 92, 104

I think having 2 losses to teams around 100 hurts them more than our loss against South Carolina (especially since their worst loss was at home).

So, I understand why the current rankings are where they are (based on the criteria), and I would anticipate that if we end up with similar conference resumes, the final ranking would end up very close.

that having been said, I currently see this as a tossup game, and I would give the edge to the home team

I’m calling Jamal Johnson breaking out this game with 3 big 3s that swing the game. Blazers by 7 on the road. 70-63.

(01-03-2022 07:01 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  

(01-03-2022 06:57 PM)BlazintheAtl1 Wrote:  

(01-03-2022 05:53 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  Strength of Schedule (SOS)

UAB’s Non-Conf. SOS is ranked 287th, while UNT is at 58.

Both teams played four top-100 teams, with UAB going 1-3 and UNT 2-2.

The main difference in non-conference schedules is UNT didn’t play the likes of Alabama A&M (331), Grambling State (330), and Mississippi Valley State (358). The lowest ranked team UNT played was UT Arlington (248).

Both schools played two non-D1 schools. Those games don’t factor into the stats.

This is why I don't understand NET and Kenpom...how are we ranked ahead of them?

Not totally sure, but at the beginning of the season KenPom had UNT at 135 and UAB at 71.

This. There's definitely still preseason bias in KenPom's rankings, but I think that'll fizzle out in the next week or so.

Not digging into North Texas, but the other part to me is that UAB is beating teams by more (sometimes much more) than KenPom's model projects. Using UTSA as an example, KenPom had UAB winning by 21 (I think), and they ended up winning by 28. That margin, coupled with movements from teams in close proximity to UAB, allowed them to move up from #50 to now #47.

The Ladies home game against North Texas Thursday has been postponed due to Covid issues.

(01-04-2022 12:50 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  The Ladies home game against North Texas Thursday has been postponed due to Covid issues.

our issue or theirs?

(01-04-2022 12:55 PM)Blazer Engineer Wrote:  

(01-04-2022 12:50 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  The Ladies home game against North Texas Thursday has been postponed due to Covid issues.

our issue or theirs?

Seems like us. On the radio show, Norton said we only have 5 players available to practice today.

I see this game as a true toss up and give the slight advantage to the home team.

(01-04-2022 12:59 PM)hooverblazer Wrote:  

(01-04-2022 12:55 PM)Blazer Engineer Wrote:  

(01-04-2022 12:50 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  The Ladies home game against North Texas Thursday has been postponed due to Covid issues.

our issue or theirs?

Seems like us. On the radio show, Norton said we only have 5 players available to practice today.

The UAB women took only 10 of their 14 players on their two-game road trip last week (a 15th player tore her ACL in the preseason). Of those 10 players, only eight played more than a few minutes in the two OT games. I see there have been a ton of women’s games cancelled/postponed around the country in the past week or so because of Covid. Hopefully, Saturday’s home game will be played.