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UCF 12>FL
AL 2 > FL
THUS UCF 10 > AL

UC 35 > UCF
THUS UC 45 > AL

I wish!

(12-27-2021 01:05 PM)doss2 Wrote:  UCF 12>FL
AL 2 > FL
THUS UCF 10 > AL

UC 35 > UCF
THUS UC 45 > AL

I wish!

The numbers never lie. You guys made hotel reservations in Indy yet?

(12-27-2021 03:06 AM)Dannyboy Wrote:  Driving down in one day, my party will be driving in shifts. We’ve had a great time going to all the games. It’s more about the experience than the winning or losing. What a great season.

This season has been a blast from a fan experience perspective. I can't remember as many good weather weekends in the fall. Road trips to IU and ND were about as fun as it gets. And now we're in the playoffs. Really have to take a moment to appreciate it all before Dallas.

(12-27-2021 01:32 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 01:05 PM)doss2 Wrote:  UCF 12>FL
AL 2 > FL
THUS UCF 10 > AL

UC 35 > UCF
THUS UC 45 > AL

I wish!

The numbers never lie. You guys made hotel reservations in Indy yet?

What for? We won't be doing any sleeping that night.

(12-27-2021 01:41 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 01:32 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 01:05 PM)doss2 Wrote:  UCF 12>FL
AL 2 > FL
THUS UCF 10 > AL

UC 35 > UCF
THUS UC 45 > AL

I wish!

The numbers never lie. You guys made hotel reservations in Indy yet?

What for? We won't be doing any sleeping that night.

LoL Right. I absolutely won't need a hotel. However, I did get a receipt for two tickets for a total of $2,000+. I might have looked at the phone 6/7x to confirm.

I've been listening to ESPNU on XM over the past week and everyone, literally everyone, I've heard thinks Bama blows us out, like 3-4 TD blowout. We are getting absolutely no respect. I think we can prove them wrong. What do you think D strategy will be: I think we try to limit the big play, drop more into coverage. This will allow the run yards we were so upset about mid-year, but against Bama I think its a win if you make them take time off clock to score and try to hold them to FG's in red-zone. On O, I think we have to pass, pass, pass. Not sure we can run on Bama. At least pass to open up the run. Ridder is going to have to have a strong day for us to be successful.

Unless we come out way too amped up and make uncharacteristic mental errors and get down by a couple scores early, I think this one will come down to the wire.

Besides the above, biggest worry is that Saban is just so damned good at exploiting what opponents don’t do well or don’t like to do when he has 3+ weeks.

(12-27-2021 05:39 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Unless we come out way too amped up and make uncharacteristic mental errors and get down by a couple scores early, I think this one will come down to the wire.

Besides the above, biggest worry is that Saban is just so damned good at exploiting what opponents don’t do well or don’t like to do when he has 3+ weeks.

Yep, it’s crazy. They have like 3,000 “ consultants “ breaking every sneeze down. I feel like it’s Rocky IV and they are Drago, while we are pulling sleds in the snow.

(12-27-2021 01:32 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 01:05 PM)doss2 Wrote:  UCF 12>FL
AL 2 > FL
THUS UCF 10 > AL

UC 35 > UCF
THUS UC 45 > AL

I wish!

The numbers never lie. You guys made hotel reservations in Indy yet?

Got my Indy Hotel weeks ago!

(12-27-2021 01:44 PM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 01:41 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 01:32 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 01:05 PM)doss2 Wrote:  UCF 12>FL
AL 2 > FL
THUS UCF 10 > AL

UC 35 > UCF
THUS UC 45 > AL

I wish!

The numbers never lie. You guys made hotel reservations in Indy yet?

What for? We won't be doing any sleeping that night.

LoL Right. I absolutely won't need a hotel. However, I did get a receipt for two tickets for a total of $2,000+. I might have looked at the phone 6/7x to confirm.

I did the same double take, “wait, what did I ask for”….haha.

(12-27-2021 06:34 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 05:39 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Unless we come out way too amped up and make uncharacteristic mental errors and get down by a couple scores early, I think this one will come down to the wire.

Besides the above, biggest worry is that Saban is just so damned good at exploiting what opponents don’t do well or don’t like to do when he has 3+ weeks.

Yep, it’s crazy. They have like 3,000 “ consultants “ breaking every sneeze down. I feel like it’s Rocky IV and they are Drago, while we are pulling sleds in the snow.

My guess is we are going to see formations that force our LBs into uncomfortable spots and into a lot of coverage we do t want to be in. The middle worries me way more than Williams running a fly pattern every snap.

My bad bad not good prediction that I hope I’m wrong on...

Alabama is going to jump a Dez pass in the flat. They have feasted on those as a position group the past couple years and Denbrock likes those when things are tight.

So I went to WHATIFSPORTS.COM and did the sim. For the TIDE and the BEARCATS. I changed the TIDE lineup to match more of their lineup today. I only had to take out Doaks for us. I ran it 10 times. We won 5 out of the 10. So it had the teams pretty even. You can not change the lines or the defense so I don't think it is a good representation but it was fun doing it.

(12-27-2021 07:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 06:34 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 05:39 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Unless we come out way too amped up and make uncharacteristic mental errors and get down by a couple scores early, I think this one will come down to the wire.

Besides the above, biggest worry is that Saban is just so damned good at exploiting what opponents don’t do well or don’t like to do when he has 3+ weeks.

Yep, it’s crazy. They have like 3,000 “ consultants “ breaking every sneeze down. I feel like it’s Rocky IV and they are Drago, while we are pulling sleds in the snow.

My guess is we are going to see formations that force our LBs into uncomfortable spots and into a lot of coverage we do t want to be in. The middle worries me way more than Williams running a fly pattern every snap.

My bad bad not good prediction that I hope I’m wrong on...

Alabama is going to jump a Dez pass in the flat. They have feasted on those as a position group the past couple years and Denbrock likes those when things are tight.

The closer the game gets. The less excited I am for it. I don’t like the long break, or all the covid cancellations.

I wish playoff games were played one to two weeks after the season ends instead of three plus weeks.

I am also not big on UC’s chances in this one but I hope I am wrong. UC’s record vs elite programs isn’t good but is basically true for everyone. I thought UC was playing better as the year ended but bowl games are closer to game 1 than game 13 in that you just never know what you are going to see.

Getting off to good start is key. UC can’t turn it over or just do silly things that kill momentum. Hopefully the Bama team that struggled at times this year is the one we see this week.

(12-27-2021 11:27 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 07:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 06:34 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 05:39 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Unless we come out way too amped up and make uncharacteristic mental errors and get down by a couple scores early, I think this one will come down to the wire.

Besides the above, biggest worry is that Saban is just so damned good at exploiting what opponents don’t do well or don’t like to do when he has 3+ weeks.

Yep, it’s crazy. They have like 3,000 “ consultants “ breaking every sneeze down. I feel like it’s Rocky IV and they are Drago, while we are pulling sleds in the snow.

My guess is we are going to see formations that force our LBs into uncomfortable spots and into a lot of coverage we do t want to be in. The middle worries me way more than Williams running a fly pattern every snap.

My bad bad not good prediction that I hope I’m wrong on...

Alabama is going to jump a Dez pass in the flat. They have feasted on those as a position group the past couple years and Denbrock likes those when things are tight.

The closer the game gets. The less excited I am for it. I don’t like the long break, or all the covid cancellations.

I wish playoff games were played one to two weeks after the season ends instead of three plus weeks.

I am also not big on UC’s chances in this one but I hope I am wrong. UC’s record vs elite programs isn’t good but is basically true for everyone. I thought UC was playing better as the year ended but bowl games are closer to game 1 than game 13 in that you just never know what you are going to see.

Getting off to good start is key. UC can’t turn it over or just do silly things that kill momentum. Hopefully the Bama team that struggled at times this year is the one we see this week.

The fact bama is out some key players makes me a little more comfortable. After Tulsa in the aaccg last year, I thought UGA was going to murder us. That didn't happen and I think it proved we can play with these guys, even if it's only for 1 game.

I agree about the start thought, if we come out like we did against Indiana were screwed. Need to pull out all the stops here and not give bama free possessions like that onside kick they pulled against Clemson

I'm not worried about Q1 or Q2. It's the third quarter that has me petrified. The third quarter has been quicksand for this team all year long.

There is no lead that is safe or comfortable coming out of half-time...

(12-27-2021 05:39 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Unless we come out way too amped up and make uncharacteristic mental errors and get down by a couple scores early, I think this one will come down to the wire.

Besides the above, biggest worry is that Saban is just so damned good at exploiting what opponents don’t do well or don’t like to do when he has 3+ weeks.

Does that mean we will be forced into kicking a lot of field goals?

I dabble in sports betting. For the last 8 or so years, I put $100 in an account around August. When it's gone, it's gone. Then after the Superbowl I cash out whatever I have and buy myself a gift. The first couple of years, I was out pretty early. The last 5 I've cashed out each year. My best year I cashed out $1500, which was two years ago. I'm sitting at around $950 right now. It's a hobby more than anything else. I suppose I do this instead of Fantasy Football. If anyone is a sports better, they know cashing out consistently is very hard to do.

What I've learned is, the NFL is damn impossible to be consistent. College football though... there is money to be made. I follow a system/scheme called Reverse Line Movement. The first few weeks are rough. Then as the season goes on, it gets more and more consistent. The bigger the game, the better the odds typically. I start out at $10-$20/game. Then I slightly start upping it as you get to the big year end games and conference championships. For example, I had $150 on Michigan +7. That game was a big blinking light in the RLM world. When the playoffs come around, I typically do $200-$500 per game.

The reason I bring this up is, the Cincinnati game is a big blinking light. If I didn't have a dog in the fight, it would be a $500 game. Vegas seems to love Cincinnati. If they didn't, the line would be around 21 points. Instead they dropped it to 13.5. That doesn't mean Cincinnati will win, but Vegas seems to think it will be a tight game. I like to bet with Vegas. They have a lot of money on the Bearcats.

It's not fool proof. Nothing is. I remember I lost pretty big in the Clemson/Alabama game when I had Alabama in 2017 (I think). I do tend to win more than I lose. I'm not suggesting anyone to bet or take my advice. Please don't. I'm not a handicapper, nor do I pretend to be one. I just found it interesting that Vegas likes what Cincinnati brings to the table.

25% Cincinnati +14 -> +13.5
75% Alabama -14 -> -13.5

What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

(12-28-2021 07:27 AM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  

(12-27-2021 05:39 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Unless we come out way too amped up and make uncharacteristic mental errors and get down by a couple scores early, I think this one will come down to the wire.

Besides the above, biggest worry is that Saban is just so damned good at exploiting what opponents don’t do well or don’t like to do when he has 3+ weeks.

Does that mean we will be forced into kicking a lot of field goals?

I’ll be drunk and mean by halftime if we are. Lol

(12-28-2021 07:53 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  I dabble in sports betting. For the last 8 or so years, I put $100 in an account around August. When it's gone, it's gone. Then after the Superbowl I cash out whatever I have and buy myself a gift. The first couple of years, I was out pretty early. The last 5 I've cashed out each year. My best year I cashed out $1500, which was two years ago. I'm sitting at around $950 right now. It's a hobby more than anything else. I suppose I do this instead of Fantasy Football. If anyone is a sports better, they know cashing out consistently is very hard to do.

What I've learned is, the NFL is damn impossible to be consistent. College football though... there is money to be made. I follow a system/scheme called Reverse Line Movement. The first few weeks are rough. Then as the season goes on, it gets more and more consistent. The bigger the game, the better the odds typically. I start out at $10-$20/game. Then I slightly start upping it as you get to the big year end games and conference championships. For example, I had $150 on Michigan +7. That game was a big blinking light in the RLM world. When the playoffs come around, I typically do $200-$500 per game.

The reason I bring this up is, the Cincinnati game is a big blinking light. If I didn't have a dog in the fight, it would be a $500 game. Vegas seems to love Cincinnati. If they didn't, the line would be around 21 points. Instead they dropped it to 13.5. That doesn't mean Cincinnati will win, but Vegas seems to think it will be a tight game. I like to bet with Vegas. They have a lot of money on the Bearcats.

It's not fool proof. Nothing is. I remember I lost pretty big in the Clemson/Alabama game when I had Alabama in 2017 (I think). I do tend to win more than I lose. I'm not suggesting anyone to bet or take my advice. Please don't. I'm not a handicapper, nor do I pretend to be one. I just found it interesting that Vegas likes what Cincinnati brings to the table.

25% Cincinnati +14 -> +13.5
75% Alabama -14 -> -13.5

What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

Thanks for this post. My impression as a novice who would love to bet more college football (and college basketball) but probably won't until it's legal in Ohio this offered good perspective. My impression has been Vegas has loved this Bearcat team all year. It didn't overreact to some tightish scores against bad teams midseason (most advanced numbers showed UC really dominated those games and it was kind of flukie they were close) and has had them as between the 5th and 7th best team basically all season. I've though them holding that line under 14 has showed a lot of belief in Cincinnati (said as much yesterday in my game preview) and your explanation makes a ton of sense.

You're right about NFL picks...they are so hard to find value in. I do a 100 person super contest every year, which is basically the extent of my gambling. I'm on this insane 41-17 run against the spread since Week 5 and have not idea how, but I'm hoping to cash in the big money at the end of the year. It feels like every game is so random. Went 5-0 this week, but one was because Detroit's coach stupidly kicked a field goal down 7 with a few minutes left to cover +5.5... you win or lose on nonsense like that.

(12-28-2021 08:42 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-28-2021 07:53 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

Thanks for this post. My impression as a novice who would love to bet more college football (and college basketball) but probably won't until it's legal in Ohio this offered good perspective. My impression has been Vegas has loved this Bearcat team all year. It didn't overreact to some tightish scores against bad teams midseason (most advanced numbers showed UC really dominated those games and it was kind of flukie they were close) and has had them as between the 5th and 7th best team basically all season. I've though them holding that line under 14 has showed a lot of belief in Cincinnati (said as much yesterday in my game preview) and your explanation makes a ton of sense.

You're right about NFL picks...they are so hard to find value in. I do a 100 person super contest every year, which is basically the extent of my gambling. I'm on this insane 41-17 run against the spread since Week 5 and have not idea how, but I'm hoping to cash in the big money at the end of the year. It feels like every game is so random. Went 5-0 this week, but one was because Detroit's coach stupidly kicked a field goal down 7 with a few minutes left to cover +5.5... you win or lose on nonsense like that.

I consider myself pretty novice too.

41-17 is pretty damn impressive. If you could do that consistently you'd be the best handicapper in the world basically. NFL typically ends up around 50/50 money on both sides of the bet, so basically Vegas makes 5% of the pot on any given NFL game. Good work if you can get it.

There are a bunch of websites that tell you what percentage of the money is on either side. Thespread.com uses pie charts, which helps me for whatever reason. NCAA games aren't nearly as consistent on the 50/50 rule. 75/25 on a playoff game is a crazy spread though, especially if they aren't moving the line.