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(11-24-2021 11:12 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:06 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I'm generally in agreement. I do lean to a one loss Big 12 champ jumping UC (especially if it is Oklahoma State), but would lean for UC staying above a 2 loss Alabama. I think other years, they would have had Alabama higher, but they have not been impressive enough this year for that treatment. That is still close enough that I would like to see the Bearcats win decently next 2 weeks, but think would lean to anyway. The Big 12 side could work out too, but the committee has seemed to give lot of respect to 1-loss power 5 conference champs and, in a split decision, I would lean to them going that way.

That means, in my view, UC needs an Alabama loss to Georgia or the winner of OSU/Michigan or Oklahoma/Oklahoma State this week to lose the final week. Anyone of those happen, and I think just winning will be enough.

I think if Alabama loses and Oklahoma beats Ok State the Sooners will not jump the Bearcats. The committee just are not into them this year. Call me crazy but there is even a chance UC finishes at #3 if they win out.

I think it is more likely UC finishes at #3 than #4 honestly. We're either in after Bama loses, or out with Big 12 team jumping us and Bama beating UGA.

(11-24-2021 11:17 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:12 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:06 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I'm generally in agreement. I do lean to a one loss Big 12 champ jumping UC (especially if it is Oklahoma State), but would lean for UC staying above a 2 loss Alabama. I think other years, they would have had Alabama higher, but they have not been impressive enough this year for that treatment. That is still close enough that I would like to see the Bearcats win decently next 2 weeks, but think would lean to anyway. The Big 12 side could work out too, but the committee has seemed to give lot of respect to 1-loss power 5 conference champs and, in a split decision, I would lean to them going that way.

That means, in my view, UC needs an Alabama loss to Georgia or the winner of OSU/Michigan or Oklahoma/Oklahoma State this week to lose the final week. Anyone of those happen, and I think just winning will be enough.

I think if Alabama loses and Oklahoma beats Ok State the Sooners will not jump the Bearcats. The committee just are not into them this year. Call me crazy but there is even a chance UC finishes at #3 if they win out.

I think it is more likely UC finishes at #3 than #4 honestly. We're either in after Bama loses, or out with Big 12 team jumping us and Bama beating UGA.

I don’t see the Big XII champion jumping UC. It’s possible but it’s still going to be a one loss team.

Great Fickell interview here.
Luke on ESPN

(11-24-2021 11:18 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:17 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:12 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:06 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I'm generally in agreement. I do lean to a one loss Big 12 champ jumping UC (especially if it is Oklahoma State), but would lean for UC staying above a 2 loss Alabama. I think other years, they would have had Alabama higher, but they have not been impressive enough this year for that treatment. That is still close enough that I would like to see the Bearcats win decently next 2 weeks, but think would lean to anyway. The Big 12 side could work out too, but the committee has seemed to give lot of respect to 1-loss power 5 conference champs and, in a split decision, I would lean to them going that way.

That means, in my view, UC needs an Alabama loss to Georgia or the winner of OSU/Michigan or Oklahoma/Oklahoma State this week to lose the final week. Anyone of those happen, and I think just winning will be enough.

I think if Alabama loses and Oklahoma beats Ok State the Sooners will not jump the Bearcats. The committee just are not into them this year. Call me crazy but there is even a chance UC finishes at #3 if they win out.

I think it is more likely UC finishes at #3 than #4 honestly. We're either in after Bama loses, or out with Big 12 team jumping us and Bama beating UGA.

I don’t see the Big XII champion jumping UC. It’s possible but it’s still going to be a one loss team.

Two back to back Top 10 wins the close the season? Thats why TCU got jumped their one year...

(11-24-2021 12:27 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:18 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:17 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:12 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 11:06 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I'm generally in agreement. I do lean to a one loss Big 12 champ jumping UC (especially if it is Oklahoma State), but would lean for UC staying above a 2 loss Alabama. I think other years, they would have had Alabama higher, but they have not been impressive enough this year for that treatment. That is still close enough that I would like to see the Bearcats win decently next 2 weeks, but think would lean to anyway. The Big 12 side could work out too, but the committee has seemed to give lot of respect to 1-loss power 5 conference champs and, in a split decision, I would lean to them going that way.

That means, in my view, UC needs an Alabama loss to Georgia or the winner of OSU/Michigan or Oklahoma/Oklahoma State this week to lose the final week. Anyone of those happen, and I think just winning will be enough.

I think if Alabama loses and Oklahoma beats Ok State the Sooners will not jump the Bearcats. The committee just are not into them this year. Call me crazy but there is even a chance UC finishes at #3 if they win out.

I think it is more likely UC finishes at #3 than #4 honestly. We're either in after Bama loses, or out with Big 12 team jumping us and Bama beating UGA.

I don’t see the Big XII champion jumping UC. It’s possible but it’s still going to be a one loss team.

Two back to back Top 10 wins the close the season? Thats why TCU got jumped their one year...

Ok, but they still have a loss. I think they may be able to jump a one loss ND but if UC wins the last two it is over, they are in.

People need to drop some Xanax and chill. I swear some people have been relishing the role of perpetual G5 "victim" for so long they don't want to give it up.

WE. ARE. IN. The committee is not stupid enough to needlessly create a situation where they face a shitstorm of controversy for moving us into the top 4 and then bumping us back out. If they were hellbent on shutting us out of the playoff, they would have moved Michigan into the 4 spot, kept us at 5 and then, in the wake of dropping down the OSU-UM loser, jumped us with the OU-OSUjr winner next week. Why do things in the most difficult, controversy creating manner when there were easier and more devious ways to screw us?

(11-24-2021 07:56 PM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  People need to drop some Xanax and chill. I swear some people have been relishing the role of perpetual G5 "victim" for so long they don't want to give it up.

WE. ARE. IN. The committee is not stupid enough to needlessly create a situation where they face a shitstorm of controversy for moving us into the top 4 and then bumping us back out. If they were hellbent on shutting us out of the playoff, they would have moved Michigan into the 4 spot, kept us at 5 and then, in the wake of dropping down the OSU-UM loser, jumped us with the OU-OSUjr winner next week. Why do things in the most difficult, controversy creating manner when there were easier and more devious ways to screw us?

My man from Amsterdam! Thank the Lord there's a few of us out there.

The question is not if we are in, we will certainly be in if UC wins out, but who would you want the team to play.....either SEC team would be my choice......

(11-25-2021 09:24 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  The question is not if we are in, we will certainly be in if UC wins out, but who would you want the team to play.....either SEC team would be my choice......

I think the only way we play an SEC team is if Alabama beats Georgia and Oklahoma State doesn't win out. If we're in, I'm thinking there's about a 95% chance we'll be playing Ohio State...

(11-25-2021 09:29 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-25-2021 09:24 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  The question is not if we are in, we will certainly be in if UC wins out, but who would you want the team to play.....either SEC team would be my choice......

I think the only way we play an SEC team is if Alabama beats Georgia and Oklahoma State doesn't win out. If we're in, I'm thinking there's about a 95% chance we'll be playing Ohio State...

I think it's around 50-50. Their main focus is going to be avoiding a Bama-UGA rematch in the semi (and if you're a cynic, maintaining the chance for an all-sec final)

UGA beats Bama, and it's almost certain that we move to 3 and play OSU.
Bama beats UGA, and two things can happen. A) they move OSU up to 1 and drop UGA all the way down to 4, and we play Bama. Or, they move Bama to one, keep OSU at 2 drop, then they'll drop us to 4 and UGA to 3.

So, the question becomes, do we feel more comfortable playing the Georgia defense or the Ohio State offense?

Too many variables to really know. If we win out i think osu v. Uc is the most likely scenario but plenty could change that (including osu losing one of the next 2 which is more likely than people acknowledge).

Osu offense is other worldly when they can control the line of scrimmage but has been plenty mortal when they don't (see psu/Nebraska games and to a lesser extent Tulsa). Both Michigan and Wisconsin are capable of controlling the los.

Forgot to post this the last two weeks but interesting to see where teams are now in their adjusted EPA/play on both sides of the ball. Once again this is derived from jbuddavis' model: https://blog.collegefootballdata.com/opp...egression/

The "top 6" here are the same six from the committee. Georgia became so good on defense that I had to adjust the Y axis lol

Beat ECU & UH = CFP
Loss to ECU but beat UH = Fiesta Bowl
Beat ECU lose to UH = Military Bowl
Lose to ECU & UH = Military Bowl

Military Bowl = Ridder, Ford, Sanders, Gardner, Bryant wisely opt out to avoid injury.

Man I hope the Cincinnati Curse does not strike!

(11-25-2021 10:34 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Beat ECU & UH = CFP
Loss to ECU but beat UH = Fiesta Bowl
Beat ECU lose to UH = Military Bowl
Lose to ECU & UH = Military Bowl

Military Bowl = Ridder, Ford, Sanders, Gardner, Bryant wisely opt out to avoid injury.

Man I hope the Cincinnati Curse does not strike!

Bolded, man you got that right.

Months ago we purchased tickets for the matinee today for "Wicked". Little did I know the game would then move from Saturday to Friday. And then that the window would be 7 pm or 3:30 pm and of course it became 3:30 pm. But it's probably better for my blood pressure to tune in for the second half only. I have worried about this game all season. How frustrating it would be to finally reach the top four CFP ranking and then lose to that directional school in rural Carolina. And yes, it would be the Cincinnati Curse.

(11-25-2021 10:34 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Beat ECU & UH = CFP
Loss to ECU but beat UH = Fiesta Bowl
Beat ECU lose to UH = Military Bowl
Lose to ECU & UH = Military Bowl

Military Bowl = Ridder, Ford, Sanders, Gardner, Bryant wisely opt out to avoid injury.

Man I hope the Cincinnati Curse does not strike!

Why even speak it into existence? I’m not singling you out Doss. I see it constantly in posts. It’s almost as if it’s a self-fulfilling cycle. Now go find a block of wood and knock real hard!

Today just feels like a game that checks every single box for trap game.

(11-26-2021 10:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Today just feels like a game that checks every single box for trap game.

Worrying about a trap game I can understand. I was reacting to the curse comment. Right up there is the most-Cincinnati-thing-ever comment that usually shows up in game threads.

(11-26-2021 10:39 AM)BearcatInFL Wrote:  

(11-26-2021 10:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Today just feels like a game that checks every single box for trap game.

Worrying about a trap game I can understand. I was reacting to the curse comment. Right up there is the most-Cincinnati-thing-ever comment that usually shows up in game threads.

Today we find out just how good our db's are and how good our in game coaching is.....UC 37-21.....

(11-26-2021 10:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Today just feels like a game that checks every single box for trap game.

If this were "Week Three" or "Week Eight," I would agree. But this is "Week 12" and everybody knows that the season hinges on this.

If anything, they might come out a little too keyed up.

The danger of a "trap game" is extremely low, IMO.

(11-26-2021 11:38 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(11-26-2021 10:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Today just feels like a game that checks every single box for trap game.

If this were "Week Three" or "Week Eight," I would agree. But this is "Week 12" and everybody knows that the season hinges on this.

If anything, they might come out a little too keyed up.

The danger of a "trap game" is extremely low, IMO.

Also ecu winning 4 in a row only helps. This game has worried me more than any on the schedule from a trap/slip possibility but I think it's unlikely.