Anyone who thinks the committee will do us any favors in any way hasn't been paying attention for the last 20 years...

(11-15-2021 11:54 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  Anyone who thinks the committee will do us any favors in any way hasn't been paying attention for the last 20 years...

...said every fan of every team ever

(11-15-2021 11:58 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 11:54 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  Anyone who thinks the committee will do us any favors in any way hasn't been paying attention for the last 20 years...

...said every fan of every team ever

Are you saying it's not especially true of us? Come on HTP

Lots of paranoia being expressed. JMU will be seeded, most likely top 4. After that a team just has to beat whomever they’re paired up against.

(11-15-2021 12:12 PM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 11:58 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 11:54 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  Anyone who thinks the committee will do us any favors in any way hasn't been paying attention for the last 20 years...

...said every fan of every team ever

Are you saying it's not especially true of us? Come on HTP

2015 an 8 seed when we could have easily been unseeded
2016 a 4 seed when we were ranked 5 (ask Soft Houston how they feel about that one)
2017 a 1 seed
2018 right on the brink but left out of the seeds - say what you want about that one
2019 a 2 seed (essentially equivalent of a 1 the way FCS does playoffs without full seeding)
2020 a 3 seed - that one did surprise me, but such a weird season who knows how anything was evaluated

So last six seasons, twice seeded in the top 2, twice seeded above where the polls would have indicated at the time, twice seeded below where the polls would have indicated at the time.

Yeah those Rascati/Landers years we bore the brunt of them only seeding 4 teams a couple times, with way tougher first round matchups than we should have had. That was the format in place at the time, though, with just 4 teams seeded then geographic matchups.

2011 they could have left us out entirely - 8-5 overall, 5-3 in conference, no wins against playoff teams

nobody is out to get us........... except joey D

^ and more than just a few CAA University Presidents and AD's.

We won't get the benefit of the doubt if it comes down to a real conversation between #2 vs #3 or #4 vs.#5. That being said, I don't think we can do enough against Towson to take the #2 spot. I'll be very surprised if we land the #2 spot but I also won't be surprised if we aren't in the top 4. Assuming all three win their final game, I could see NDSU, Nova, and Montana State in any order being #2-#4. Nova would have gotten the CAA autobid (provided they win this weekend) from the CAA even if we were eligible. People have always said the committee doesn't look at FBS losses, particularly a respectable showing against Penn State. Not saying it makes sense, but I could see the committee saying Nova should be ahead of us in the seeding as the CAA autobid, 1 FCS loss, and with a head to head road win over us, despite them being behind us in the polls/rankings.

Assuming we handle Towson it's hard to imagine we don't get seeded. I agree with those saying SHSU should stay #1, but with 2-8 it's almost as if you could throw the names in a hat, seed them in the order they get pulled out, and make up a decent sounding narrative for justification after the fact.

I didn't realize that URI's AD was on the committee. If they are on the bubble of making the playoffs I think the other ADs put them in. Who would want to piss off a guy named Thorr Bjorn? That's got to be the most viking name I've ever heard.

(11-15-2021 12:30 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  nobody is out to get us........... except joey D

I actually think Joey sided with us, it's the Presidents that did not....

If Montana St wins, there is 0% chance we take #2. And we shouldn't.

JMU ceiling is 3rd seed, I'd prefer 4th given SHSU or a trip to Montana in winter.

Beat Towson, collect top 4 seed. Take it to the bank.

(11-15-2021 12:30 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  nobody is out to get us........... except joey D

I don't think it is as much 'out to get us' as it is a matter of horse trading. If you don't think they are having side conversations and deals at a committee then you're being naive.

Consider some scenarios given all the critical teams win this weekend:

Scenario 1) Rhody on the bubble other presidents make offer "vote for our confernce to get X team for a seed and we'll be sure to vote for you to get into the field". This could include several conferences (MVFC, BSC, SoCON, etc.) enought that Rhody could garner 3-4 votes to make the field by not pushing hard for 2 CAA seeds.

Scenario 2) Rhody actively shopping one of the seeds to ensure CAA hegemony in playoff berths (along with MVFC/BSC as the Power 3). CAA to get 4 playoff berths and Rhody gives up one of two potential seeds to ensure that happens.

In these scenarios NOVA's head to head win against us is a concern here, as is the fact that the committee won't care as much about the impact to JMU since we're leaving anyways. It's not malicious but a screwing could happen.

My point is that we have had a mix of good and bad outcomes, but mostly good in imperfect system..tough brackets is driven mainly by travel reqs (distance rules) and concentration of good schools in our area. Horsetrading certainly happens...and JMU does it too!

(11-15-2021 01:01 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 12:30 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  nobody is out to get us........... except joey D

I actually think Joey sided with us, it's the Presidents that did not....

Ding ding ding. The President's can be spiteful without much worry (assuming they don't commit FIU-level neglect). Joey D is the one with insecurity in the job if the CAA falls apart.

Ideally its

1 SHSU
2 Montana state
3 NDSU
4/5 JMU/Villanova

Avoid Fargo and an outdoor game in Montana plus we know what SHSU and Nova have

(11-15-2021 01:52 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Ideally its

1 SHSU
2 Montana state
3 NDSU
4/5 JMU/Villanova

Avoid Fargo and an outdoor game in Montana plus we know what SHSU and Nova have

+1, especially for the Villanova complaints about coming back to the 'burg ha!

Anybody remember the official quote from the committee in 2018. I think there was a quote/statement during the ESPN broadcast right before they interviewed HCCC. I can't remember if it was (1) Maine got the seed above JMU due to winning the CAA, or (2) Maine got the seed bc they beat UNH who beat JMU, or (3) both. I want to say that it was just #2, but it could be that I only remember that point since it was terrible reasoning - they played UNH in Aug with a backup QB and we played against Trevor Knight.

Bottom line, I will be surprised if we are seeded above a CAA champion that beat us head to head. Head to head comes before the common opponent record in the selection criteria for setting the playoff field. The weekly rankings are based on thoughts of the best teams out there, whereas it seems like the committee takes a more practical approach.

IMHO, we need help from UDel to even think about a #2 seed, and if Nova wins, likely help from SD and Montana to get a top #4.

(11-15-2021 02:02 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  Anybody remember the official quote from the committee in 2018. I think there was a quote/statement during the ESPN broadcast right before they interviewed HCCC. I can't remember if it was (1) Maine got the seed above JMU due to winning the CAA, or (2) Maine got the seed bc they beat UNH who beat JMU, or (3) both. I want to say that it was just #2, but it could be that I only remember that point since it was terrible reasoning - they played UNH in Aug with a backup QB and we played against Trevor Knight.

Bottom line, I will be surprised if we are seeded above a CAA champion that beat us head to head. Head to head comes before the common opponent record in the selection criteria for setting the playoff field. The weekly rankings are based on thoughts of the best teams out there, whereas it seems like the committee takes a more practical approach.

IMHO, we need help from UDel to even think about a #2 seed, and if Nova wins, likely help from SD and Montana to get a top #4.

Yep. Agree with this.

(11-15-2021 12:27 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 12:12 PM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 11:58 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 11:54 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  Anyone who thinks the committee will do us any favors in any way hasn't been paying attention for the last 20 years...

...said every fan of every team ever

Are you saying it's not especially true of us? Come on HTP

2015 an 8 seed when we could have easily been unseeded
2016 a 4 seed when we were ranked 5 (ask Soft Houston how they feel about that one)
2017 a 1 seed
2018 right on the brink but left out of the seeds - say what you want about that one
2019 a 2 seed (essentially equivalent of a 1 the way FCS does playoffs without full seeding)
2020 a 3 seed - that one did surprise me, but such a weird season who knows how anything was evaluated

So last six seasons, twice seeded in the top 2, twice seeded above where the polls would have indicated at the time, twice seeded below where the polls would have indicated at the time.

Yeah those Rascati/Landers years we bore the brunt of them only seeding 4 teams a couple times, with way tougher first round matchups than we should have had. That was the format in place at the time, though, with just 4 teams seeded then geographic matchups.

2011 they could have left us out entirely - 8-5 overall, 5-3 in conference, no wins against playoff teams

2018 and 2020 are the only seasons that are relevant for comparison purposes based on how most expect the 2021 season to finish up (Nova and JMU wins, Nova is CAA champion and head to head winner). In 2016, 2017, and 2019, we were undefeated against FCS teams with the CAA championship on our resume. 2015 likely didn't feature anyone on the current playoff committee(?) so toss it out.

So looking at the two seasons that are comparable, which you already noted were the two years that JMU's seed could be questioned. Further, 2018 was following a championship year, while 2020 was following a Frisco appearance. We didn't get the benefit of the doubt then so I definitely don't expect it this year coming of an embarrassment at SHSU just a handful of months ago.

Let's throw some more money to Duke Club. $50 donation. If JMU wins, our ranking will be higher than our seed. Push if they are the same (and by push I clearly mean that both of us have to donate).