If Cincy wins out, they’ll be in.

Somebody tell Kyle Mack (fake OSU fan) so he can relax.

We did this year what everybody fussed about last year - Cincinnati didn't play anybody OOC. We went on the road - back to back [with a bye in between] - and beat Indiana and Notre Dame. We've outscored our two conference opponents 108-24. We've won 24 straight home games and won 15 straight regular season games since last year. If you objectively look at our game film we are loaded on both sides of the ball and play strong special teams - all three phases collectively are as good as anybody's in college football. The only thing we can't do is say we're part of one of the autonomous conferences. I guess that is now where the goal post has moved for some. It's ok. We'll be ranked #2 in the AP poll today and the debate will continue onward. I'm thankful for the debate because that means our program is relevant and is a serious threat to bust the CFP.

(10-17-2021 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.

ND is not that good this year but your right they could go 11-1.

I was impressed with the amount of Cincy fans that were at the ND game it reminded me when Nebraska played there 10 years ago. Lots of red.

OU went from 34 points up to 41 points up on Cincinnati in the coaches poll. Alabama went from 55 behind to 21 behind.

That's what will happen as other name schools drop. Most of their votes will go to schools other than Cincinnati. The committee votes more like the coaches than the AP.

Note how Ohio St. is ranked well ahead of Oregon when each has one loss and Penn St. is ranked well ahead of Iowa when each has one loss. And of course A&M was ranked ahead of Arkansas when both had two losses, but Arkansas suffered its 3rd loss. They will vote based on name and eyeball tests.

I'm a little surprised that Oklahoma didn't jump over Cincinnati this week. I don't say that with a bias against the Bearcats, who I would have voted third. The Sooners IMO are not the same team that gave some voters pause a couple of weeks ago. The decision to start a freshman QB ahead of pre-season Heisman candidate Rattler, who just wasn't performing up to expectations, seems to have made a huge difference in this team.

If both keep winning, I see no reason why they won't both get their ticket punched.

I think Cinci can get in if the P5s beat each other up enough. Cinci can't afford to have any close games outside SMU -- and needs to win the AAC Championship game convincingly.

If Cinci goes undefeated, from a general standpoint, I give them about a 33% chance of making it in.

(10-17-2021 02:15 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  I think Cinci can get in if the P5s beat each other up enough. Cinci can't afford to have any close games outside SMU -- and needs to win the AAC Championship game convincingly.

If Cinci goes undefeated, from a general standpoint, I give them about a 33% chance of making it in.

I think they need some help. They've got to stomp everyone but SMU and then need some cannibalization in the Big 10 and/or Big 12.

Cincinnati up to #2 in AP Poll and up to #3 in Coaches’ Poll.

Now if only Wale Forest and Pitt and NC State etc would hurry up and lose 2 games.

(10-17-2021 11:24 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 09:55 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 09:30 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 09:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 08:54 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  Yes, they do not have to vote for the playoff winner.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So, and in theory, Cincinnati could be excluded from the four-team playoff, win its NY6 Bowl game, finish 14-0 and be voted No. 1 in the AP poll? Correct?

In theory, that is correct. That could happen in the Coaches poll as well, as the Coaches poll is not tied to the CFP either.

And in hoops the Coaches poll could vote someone other than the NCAA tournament winner as the national champ (the AP does not hold a post-tournament poll).

But the odds of either happening are extremely small.

The only way it happens:

1. Cincy pounds a very good SMU team by, say, five TDs in the AAC title game, looks razor sharp and is perceived by many (including lots of media folks) as deserving of a bid to the four-team playoff — but is not invited.

2. The four teams that go to the playoff each have one loss.

3. A "sixth team," with one loss and, like Cincy, reasonably deserving of a playoff bid — is not invited. That team and Cincy (both "top seven-esque" teams) are pitted against each other in a NY6 bowl game and enter it with massive chips on their respective shoulders.

4. Whoever wins the title game does so in a very ugly, low-scoring game to finish 14-1.

5. Cincy manhandles its strong opponent in the NY6 bowl game in impressive fashion and finishes 14-0.

IF all that happens (extremely unlikely), the AP voters could vote UC No. 1 ...

... and I bring out the unicycle, multi-colored afro wig and small exotic mammal to celebrate.

I think the one issue with your sequence, and why the AP voting anyone else but the CFP champ #1 is very unlikely, is that the national champ would have beaten two top-4 level teams, to just one for Cincy.

But the other issue is that the hypothetical winner would have been given a chance in the playoff ... and UC would have not. That could rub a lot of AP voters the wrong way. As such, they might cast a "protest vote" for Cincy as national champ.

It's all moot as it would take a miracle for this sequence of events to unfold. If fact, I don't anticipate UC going undefeated anyway between now and the playoffs. Some AAC team is going to sneak up and beat the Bearcats. As a UC fan, I sure hope that upset loss doesn't happen because I want to see my insane hypothetical unfold and the AP vote Cincy the champ ... if anything, because it has been quite some time since I rode the unicycle nude for any celebration of sorts.

(10-17-2021 12:13 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  We did this year what everybody fussed about last year - Cincinnati didn't play anybody OOC. We went on the road - back to back [with a bye in between] - and beat Indiana and Notre Dame. We've outscored our two conference opponents 108-24. We've won 24 straight home games and won 15 straight regular season games since last year. If you objectively look at our game film we are loaded on both sides of the ball and play strong special teams - all three phases collectively are as good as anybody's in college football. The only thing we can't do is say we're part of one of the autonomous conferences. I guess that is now where the goal post has moved for some. It's ok. We'll be ranked #2 in the AP poll today and the debate will continue onward. I'm thankful for the debate because that means our program is relevant and is a serious threat to bust the CFP.

You can't look at game film in a vacuum, anyone can look like a superstar vs bad competition.

The problem we have with evaluating Cincy is the competition is just very weak. The AAC is softer than usual this year, and of the two OOC opponents, Cincy was unimpressive vs a bad Indiana team (beaten statistically, trailed in the 4th quarter).

The one feather in the cap is the win over Notre Dame. But Cincy gave themselves a bye to rest up for that while Notre Dame played a physically and emotionally tough game vs Wisconsin the work before, and that game wasn't decided until the waning moments either. And that's against an ND team that easily could be 1-4 not 4-1.

If Notre Dame keeps finding magical ways to win late (both VT and Toledo had greater than 95% chances to beat ND late in their games), then Cincy will have a real feather in the cap. If not, then we're going to be asked to believe that is eye-test impressive to keep shellacking bad AAC teams 55-20 or whatever.

Rankings are irrelevant because UM and MSU will make massive gains on UC if they keep winning. Same with OU. And what if UGa is upset in the CCG against Bama? UC would have no path.

And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

(10-17-2021 02:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 12:13 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  We did this year what everybody fussed about last year - Cincinnati didn't play anybody OOC. We went on the road - back to back [with a bye in between] - and beat Indiana and Notre Dame. We've outscored our two conference opponents 108-24. We've won 24 straight home games and won 15 straight regular season games since last year. If you objectively look at our game film we are loaded on both sides of the ball and play strong special teams - all three phases collectively are as good as anybody's in college football. The only thing we can't do is say we're part of one of the autonomous conferences. I guess that is now where the goal post has moved for some. It's ok. We'll be ranked #2 in the AP poll today and the debate will continue onward. I'm thankful for the debate because that means our program is relevant and is a serious threat to bust the CFP.

You can't look at game film in a vacuum, anyone can look like a superstar vs bad competition.

The problem we have with evaluating Cincy is the competition is just very weak. The AAC is softer than usual this year, and of the two OOC opponents, Cincy was unimpressive vs a bad Indiana team (beaten statistically, trailed in the 4th quarter).

The one feather in the cap is the win over Notre Dame. But Cincy gave themselves a bye to rest up for that while Notre Dame played a physically and emotionally tough game vs Wisconsin the work before, and that game wasn't decided until the waning moments either. And that's against an ND team that easily could be 1-4 not 4-1.

If Notre Dame keeps finding magical ways to win late (both VT and Toledo had greater than 95% chances to beat ND late in their games), then Cincy will have a real feather in the cap. If not, then we're going to be asked to believe that is eye-test impressive to keep shellacking bad AAC teams 55-20 or whatever.

Speaking of softer conferences this season - how about the P12 and ACC? Also, game film doesn't lie despite the competition. Ask anyone who watches it from coaches to sports media types. All I'm saying is the goal posts seem to move more for us than other programs when it comes to evaluation and what it takes to be considered for the CFP. We're ranked #2 in the AP and #3 in the Coaches so we're considered a top team for the purposes of those polls. The CFP Committee may see it differently but then they can let us know why that is.

(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

The only time two teams from the same conference made the CFP is 2017/18 - #3 Georgia [12-1] and #4 Bama [11-1]. Doesn't mean it can't happen again but it appears the Committee has no penchant for that.

[sarcasm] For some reason I didn't realize that so many of the College Football Championship selection board hung out on the CSNbbs "College Sports and Realignment" page.

I am truly humbled that so many of you vaunted experts hang out here. [/sarcasm]

I really do not care what "Quo Vadis" or "Bullet" or "RUScarlets" think unless they are on the selection board. Y'all are entitled to your opinion but it doesn't actually account for anything...unless you are on the CFP board.

Until they release their first seedings in a couple of weeks, I really don't care much. And even then, UC can't do anything "about it" except win the games on their schedule. As a fan, I can do even less...except enjoy the ride.

(10-17-2021 04:22 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

The only time two teams from the same conference made the CFP is 2017/18 - #3 Georgia [12-1] and #4 Bama [11-1]. Doesn't mean it can't happen again but it appears the Committee has no penchant for that.

Yeah but the division hasn’t been this strong since the early Harbaugh, D’Antoni Meyer years. It’s going to get the benefit of the doubt.

I think one or two of that Michigan, Michigan State, and OSU trio will finish with two losses.

(10-17-2021 03:52 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 02:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 12:13 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  We did this year what everybody fussed about last year - Cincinnati didn't play anybody OOC. We went on the road - back to back [with a bye in between] - and beat Indiana and Notre Dame. We've outscored our two conference opponents 108-24. We've won 24 straight home games and won 15 straight regular season games since last year. If you objectively look at our game film we are loaded on both sides of the ball and play strong special teams - all three phases collectively are as good as anybody's in college football. The only thing we can't do is say we're part of one of the autonomous conferences. I guess that is now where the goal post has moved for some. It's ok. We'll be ranked #2 in the AP poll today and the debate will continue onward. I'm thankful for the debate because that means our program is relevant and is a serious threat to bust the CFP.

You can't look at game film in a vacuum, anyone can look like a superstar vs bad competition.

The problem we have with evaluating Cincy is the competition is just very weak. The AAC is softer than usual this year, and of the two OOC opponents, Cincy was unimpressive vs a bad Indiana team (beaten statistically, trailed in the 4th quarter).

The one feather in the cap is the win over Notre Dame. But Cincy gave themselves a bye to rest up for that while Notre Dame played a physically and emotionally tough game vs Wisconsin the work before, and that game wasn't decided until the waning moments either. And that's against an ND team that easily could be 1-4 not 4-1.

If Notre Dame keeps finding magical ways to win late (both VT and Toledo had greater than 95% chances to beat ND late in their games), then Cincy will have a real feather in the cap. If not, then we're going to be asked to believe that is eye-test impressive to keep shellacking bad AAC teams 55-20 or whatever.

Speaking of softer conferences this season - how about the P12 and ACC? Also, game film doesn't lie despite the competition. Ask anyone who watches it from coaches to sports media types. All I'm saying is the goal posts seem to move more for us than other programs when it comes to evaluation and what it takes to be considered for the CFP. We're ranked #2 in the AP and #3 in the Coaches so we're considered a top team for the purposes of those polls. The CFP Committee may see it differently but then they can let us know why that is.

Well, the notion that Cincy has had goalposts moved by anyone doesn't make sense to me - Cincy is in fact ranked #2 and #3 right now by the only major groups ranking anyone. If the CFP ranks them #6, then we can talk about different goalposts. FWIW, I don't expect that at all, I think Cincy will be ranked basically the same in the CFP as they are in the polls, save possibly ranked behind Alabama. But in the top 4.

As for the ACC and PAC, as bad as they've been, they are both still considerably better than the AAC, which has been very soft so far. But even so, I've already said I think an unbeaten Cincy finishes ahead of any ACC team unless Wake goes unbeaten, and ahead of any PAC champ unless Oregon wins it with one loss *and* Ohio State wins the B1G.