(10-11-2021 11:00 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 04:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:12 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 08:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 07:27 PM)XLance Wrote:  The value of big ten's investment in Rutgers and Maryland is depreciating at a rapid rate. With every cable cancellation the value of Maryland and Rutgers sinks just a little bit lower for the B1G.
In the new paradigm a school will either have to be a true national "brand" like an Oklahoma or have access to strong regional rivalries in order to have value.
Money does talk, but the reason an asset has value has changed since the 1990s.

And yet Warren raised the prospect of raising basketball profiles. I find him to be the least careful of commissioners. The only way major hoops programs have value is in a breakaway.

The SEC knows this but prioritized football brands first. I do think hoops comes next and will serve two purposes. Winter interest is one. A more balanced win / loss football and hoops bell curve within an expanded yet closed conference is the other.

Once Notre Dame and F.S.U. are decided the time for interest in North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke will rise.

This is why I believe the elite programs of the ACC will be among the first to leave in a move to a consolidated P3, with a 4th to be formed as the SEC / B1G and PAC become more brand centric.

Segregation by revenue payouts with mind paid to geography will be the determining factors. Think 16 to 20 per conference.

Yeah, put that together:

1) The commissioner of the Big Ten, a conference that loudly prides itself on the AAU membership of all but one of its members, says basketball should play a larger role in realignment.

2) North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke all have a lot of basketball brand value AND North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke are all AAU universities.

To borrow a Spock quote from the original Star Trek series: “Even in this corner of the galaxy, Captain, 2 plus 2 equals 4.”

Do you see what's missing from the picture?
In the world of conference realignment who/what is the true winner?
If I read all of the reports correctly, it was Oklahoma and Texas that contacted the SEC, right? I don't think for one minute it was for the SEC, SEC, SEC, but it was to be aligned with an ESPN owned conference where their futures together would be secure.
Certainly the folks at Carolina, UVa and Duke are at least as smart as the folks at Texas an Oklahoma. And we probably have to admit that the folks at ESPN are smart too. ESPN already owns the best collection of basketball brands assembled in one conference. Wouldn't it make good business sense for ESPN to invest in the ACC rather than let a large chunk of the basketball brand value move to the B1G? And wouldn't it make sense that Carolina, Duke and UVa would want to stay attached to ESPN if at all possible?
That's why in the long run it will make sense for Penn State to attach itself to an ESPN conference, and get out of the shadow of Ohio State and Michigan, where it would be regarded as one of the top two football programs in the ACC. As a bonus a large number of it's games could be played against traditional rivals closer to home.
It will also be the opportunity for the B1G to shed itself of what everyone seems to regard as a huge mistake (the addition of Maryland and Rutgers).
Those three (Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers) along with West Virginia will give ESPN complete control of the east coast with an 18 team conference with built in access to Notre Dame.
The B1G will have to add from the PAC's AAU schools and perhaps Kansas and or Iowa State to form a marketable entity.
Yes there will be three. Teams are running toward the World Wide Leader, not away from it.

Ah, I get it now!

Prior to 2012 it was the ACC will survive if it outlasts the B1G. That didn't help.

Then it became Texas will save us. That didn't happen.

Then it was Notre Dame will join in full and save us. It's now apparent that won't happen.

So I guess the new one is Penn State will join and save us for the exposure? That won't happen either. PSU fits the Big 10. The Big 10 will meet it's needs both financially and academically.

In all of realignment I can't think of a single school that moved for less revenue.

But don't feel badly about it. It's up there with the wishes of Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado and A&M returning to the Big 12 to save them, and even Arkansas returning to a conference they were excluded by and to one in which they were never a member.

I'm sorry but the reality is that the top brand and usual revenue leader joined the SEC for about 24-25 million more, so there is impetus and precedent now for any of the ACC leaders joining a conference which makes 30-40 million more (depending on the conference).

And X, don't go blaming the B1G or SEC. Either one would willingly be used to help the networks assemble the product arrangement they desire for more money, but I doubt either is salivating to do it. It's merely the final stages of a corporate takeover of college sports that began in earnest in the very late 80's. What's happening now is an SKU overhead reduction through product placement.

Is there any way to stop it JR?? Or is it just hopeless??

(10-11-2021 11:00 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 04:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:12 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 08:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 07:27 PM)XLance Wrote:  The value of big ten's investment in Rutgers and Maryland is depreciating at a rapid rate. With every cable cancellation the value of Maryland and Rutgers sinks just a little bit lower for the B1G.
In the new paradigm a school will either have to be a true national "brand" like an Oklahoma or have access to strong regional rivalries in order to have value.
Money does talk, but the reason an asset has value has changed since the 1990s.

And yet Warren raised the prospect of raising basketball profiles. I find him to be the least careful of commissioners. The only way major hoops programs have value is in a breakaway.

The SEC knows this but prioritized football brands first. I do think hoops comes next and will serve two purposes. Winter interest is one. A more balanced win / loss football and hoops bell curve within an expanded yet closed conference is the other.

Once Notre Dame and F.S.U. are decided the time for interest in North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke will rise.

This is why I believe the elite programs of the ACC will be among the first to leave in a move to a consolidated P3, with a 4th to be formed as the SEC / B1G and PAC become more brand centric.

Segregation by revenue payouts with mind paid to geography will be the determining factors. Think 16 to 20 per conference.

Yeah, put that together:

1) The commissioner of the Big Ten, a conference that loudly prides itself on the AAU membership of all but one of its members, says basketball should play a larger role in realignment.

2) North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke all have a lot of basketball brand value AND North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke are all AAU universities.

To borrow a Spock quote from the original Star Trek series: “Even in this corner of the galaxy, Captain, 2 plus 2 equals 4.”

Do you see what's missing from the picture?
In the world of conference realignment who/what is the true winner?
If I read all of the reports correctly, it was Oklahoma and Texas that contacted the SEC, right? I don't think for one minute it was for the SEC, SEC, SEC, but it was to be aligned with an ESPN owned conference where their futures together would be secure.
Certainly the folks at Carolina, UVa and Duke are at least as smart as the folks at Texas an Oklahoma. And we probably have to admit that the folks at ESPN are smart too. ESPN already owns the best collection of basketball brands assembled in one conference. Wouldn't it make good business sense for ESPN to invest in the ACC rather than let a large chunk of the basketball brand value move to the B1G? And wouldn't it make sense that Carolina, Duke and UVa would want to stay attached to ESPN if at all possible?
That's why in the long run it will make sense for Penn State to attach itself to an ESPN conference, and get out of the shadow of Ohio State and Michigan, where it would be regarded as one of the top two football programs in the ACC. As a bonus a large number of it's games could be played against traditional rivals closer to home.
It will also be the opportunity for the B1G to shed itself of what everyone seems to regard as a huge mistake (the addition of Maryland and Rutgers).
Those three (Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers) along with West Virginia will give ESPN complete control of the east coast with an 18 team conference with built in access to Notre Dame.
The B1G will have to add from the PAC's AAU schools and perhaps Kansas and or Iowa State to form a marketable entity.
Yes there will be three. Teams are running toward the World Wide Leader, not away from it.

Ah, I get it now!

Prior to 2012 it was the ACC will survive if it outlasts the B1G. That didn't help.

Then it became Texas will save us. That didn't happen.

Then it was Notre Dame will join in full and save us. It's now apparent that won't happen.

So I guess the new one is Penn State will join and save us for the exposure? That won't happen either. PSU fits the Big 10. The Big 10 will meet it's needs both financially and academically.

In all of realignment I can't think of a single school that moved for less revenue.

But don't feel badly about it. It's up there with the wishes of Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado and A&M returning to the Big 12 to save them, and even Arkansas returning to a conference they were excluded by and to one in which they were never a member.

I'm sorry but the reality is that the top brand and usual revenue leader joined the SEC for about 24-25 million more, so there is impetus and precedent now for any of the ACC leaders joining a conference which makes 30-40 million more (depending on the conference).

And X, don't go blaming the B1G or SEC. Either one would willingly be used to help the networks assemble the product arrangement they desire for more money, but I doubt either is salivating to do it. It's merely the final stages of a corporate takeover of college sports that began in earnest in the very late 80's. What's happening now is an SKU overhead reduction through product placement.

(10-11-2021 11:47 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 11:00 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 04:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:12 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 08:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And yet Warren raised the prospect of raising basketball profiles. I find him to be the least careful of commissioners. The only way major hoops programs have value is in a breakaway.

The SEC knows this but prioritized football brands first. I do think hoops comes next and will serve two purposes. Winter interest is one. A more balanced win / loss football and hoops bell curve within an expanded yet closed conference is the other.

Once Notre Dame and F.S.U. are decided the time for interest in North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke will rise.

This is why I believe the elite programs of the ACC will be among the first to leave in a move to a consolidated P3, with a 4th to be formed as the SEC / B1G and PAC become more brand centric.

Segregation by revenue payouts with mind paid to geography will be the determining factors. Think 16 to 20 per conference.

Yeah, put that together:

1) The commissioner of the Big Ten, a conference that loudly prides itself on the AAU membership of all but one of its members, says basketball should play a larger role in realignment.

2) North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke all have a lot of basketball brand value AND North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, and Duke are all AAU universities.

To borrow a Spock quote from the original Star Trek series: “Even in this corner of the galaxy, Captain, 2 plus 2 equals 4.”

Do you see what's missing from the picture?
In the world of conference realignment who/what is the true winner?
If I read all of the reports correctly, it was Oklahoma and Texas that contacted the SEC, right? I don't think for one minute it was for the SEC, SEC, SEC, but it was to be aligned with an ESPN owned conference where their futures together would be secure.
Certainly the folks at Carolina, UVa and Duke are at least as smart as the folks at Texas an Oklahoma. And we probably have to admit that the folks at ESPN are smart too. ESPN already owns the best collection of basketball brands assembled in one conference. Wouldn't it make good business sense for ESPN to invest in the ACC rather than let a large chunk of the basketball brand value move to the B1G? And wouldn't it make sense that Carolina, Duke and UVa would want to stay attached to ESPN if at all possible?
That's why in the long run it will make sense for Penn State to attach itself to an ESPN conference, and get out of the shadow of Ohio State and Michigan, where it would be regarded as one of the top two football programs in the ACC. As a bonus a large number of it's games could be played against traditional rivals closer to home.
It will also be the opportunity for the B1G to shed itself of what everyone seems to regard as a huge mistake (the addition of Maryland and Rutgers).
Those three (Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers) along with West Virginia will give ESPN complete control of the east coast with an 18 team conference with built in access to Notre Dame.
The B1G will have to add from the PAC's AAU schools and perhaps Kansas and or Iowa State to form a marketable entity.
Yes there will be three. Teams are running toward the World Wide Leader, not away from it.

Ah, I get it now!

Prior to 2012 it was the ACC will survive if it outlasts the B1G. That didn't help.

Then it became Texas will save us. That didn't happen.

Then it was Notre Dame will join in full and save us. It's now apparent that won't happen.

So I guess the new one is Penn State will join and save us for the exposure? That won't happen either. PSU fits the Big 10. The Big 10 will meet it's needs both financially and academically.

In all of realignment I can't think of a single school that moved for less revenue.

But don't feel badly about it. It's up there with the wishes of Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado and A&M returning to the Big 12 to save them, and even Arkansas returning to a conference they were excluded by and to one in which they were never a member.

I'm sorry but the reality is that the top brand and usual revenue leader joined the SEC for about 24-25 million more, so there is impetus and precedent now for any of the ACC leaders joining a conference which makes 30-40 million more (depending on the conference).

And X, don't go blaming the B1G or SEC. Either one would willingly be used to help the networks assemble the product arrangement they desire for more money, but I doubt either is salivating to do it. It's merely the final stages of a corporate takeover of college sports that began in earnest in the very late 80's. What's happening now is an SKU overhead reduction through product placement.

Is there any way to stop it JR?? Or is it just hopeless??

The horse has left the barn, but I suppose the schools can just refuse to sign any more TV deals with networks and just produce/stream their games by themselves to fans on a subscription basis.

They won't do that, so its probably a done deal.

The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

In my opinion, it's in the best interests of Duke, Wake Forest, and maybe BC and Syracuse to be pro-active and start planning for the inevitable. Nothing personal, it's just business.

It might be possible for those teams to preserve the basketball and other ACC sports at the expense of a full football share. Stubbornly holding on to P5 football membership when you can't even sell 40,000 tickets per game is futile - but if they make smart decisions now, I think they CAN remain in the P5 for all other sports.

No way does ESPN pay the same for these [current] 14 ACC teams as they pay for the B1G or SEC, so they need to reduce the divisor (i.e. the Big XII approach), then maybe look at poaching WVU, Cincinnati and/or UCF from the Big XII, if that helps revenue.

If the status quo continues, I think Duke and Syracuse end up in the Big East while Wake Forest and Boston College end up in the American Athletic Conference. As for Virginia Tech, I could see them ending up in the SEC, Big Ten, or the combined remnants of the ACC+Big XII, depending on where other chips fall.

JMO.

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

In my opinion, it's in the best interests of Duke, Wake Forest, and maybe BC and Syracuse to be pro-active and start planning for the inevitable. Nothing personal, it's just business.

It might be possible for those teams to preserve the basketball and other ACC sports at the expense of a full football share. Stubbornly holding on to P5 football membership when you can't even sell 40,000 tickets per game is futile - but if they make smart decisions now, I think they CAN remain in the P5 for all other sports.

No way does ESPN pay the same for these [current] 14 ACC teams as they pay for the B1G or SEC, so they need to reduce the divisor (i.e. the Big XII approach), then maybe look at poaching WVU, Cincinnati and/or UCF from the Big XII, if that helps revenue.

If the status quo continues, I think Duke and Syracuse end up in the Big East while Wake Forest and Boston College end up in the American Athletic Conference. As for Virginia Tech, I could see them ending up in the SEC, Big Ten, or the combined remnants of the ACC+Big XII, depending on where other chips fall.

JMO.

Vandy really needs to do what you suggested for Duke and Wake Forest, IMHO, no offense Bill Dazzle. I think there's still hope for Syracuse, but I really don't know on Boston College. I think a school that the ACC should look at would be South Florida. They would be some nice insurance should the ACC lose FSU.

Also, maybe the SEC and the ACC should seriously look at Air Force and Navy for football only membership. I remember wondering who the SEC could get as a football only member should Vandy move its football team out of the SEC, but couldn't think of anyone at all at the time. When I heard about Air Force and the American Conference, it finally came to me: Air Force!!!! IMO, AFA wouldn't do well in the SEC olympic sports, but I could see AFA holding its own in SEC football. I could see Navy doing the same in the ACC. Add Army as a football-only as well, and the ACC just might have something!!!

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

I don’t see the incentive for Duke, Wake, et al to do anything. The ACC GOR lasts another 15 years. Anything can happen in 15 years. (As an aside, this probably isn’t the right time to tell Wake Forest, the ACC’s highest ranked and only undefeated football team, to drop football.) There’s no “severance payment” the ACC could make that is large enough to compensate any of those schools for giving up 10-15 years worth of P-level football revenue.

As for your first point: In hindsight, the ACC should have brought in Miami at the same time as Florida State and stopped there, or should have stopped right after Miami and VT were voted in, and then today the ACC would have an even 10 members, after Maryland’s departure … but hindsight is easy.

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

In my opinion, it's in the best interests of Duke, Wake Forest, and maybe BC and Syracuse to be pro-active and start planning for the inevitable. Nothing personal, it's just business.

It might be possible for those teams to preserve the basketball and other ACC sports at the expense of a full football share. Stubbornly holding on to P5 football membership when you can't even sell 40,000 tickets per game is futile - but if they make smart decisions now, I think they CAN remain in the P5 for all other sports.

No way does ESPN pay the same for these [current] 14 ACC teams as they pay for the B1G or SEC, so they need to reduce the divisor (i.e. the Big XII approach), then maybe look at poaching WVU, Cincinnati and/or UCF from the Big XII, if that helps revenue.

If the status quo continues, I think Duke and Syracuse end up in the Big East while Wake Forest and Boston College end up in the American Athletic Conference. As for Virginia Tech, I could see them ending up in the SEC, Big Ten, or the combined remnants of the ACC+Big XII, depending on where other chips fall.

JMO.

On the hypothetical that ESPN does not want to save the ACC, which would also mean that there has to be some mechanism to do away with the GORs I disagree with JR in that I don't think that the Notre Dame/Florida State move is made first (although I do think in this situation that Florida State would be SEC bound and Notre Dame would be committed to the B1G).
The first thing would be that the B1G would have to get to 16 like the SEC to have a starting point to advance to 18 or beyond.
The B1G chooses Carolina and UVa (this is long rumored and should surprise no one).
Then it's FSU to the SEC +1 and Notre Dame to the B1G +1.
Would the SEC bypass Clemson to get to NCSU or Va Tech? Tough call but in the end the brand power coupled with the rivalries with South Carolina, Georgia and Auburn tip the scales in the Tigers direction.
That places the B1G is a really tough position in that there aren't surefire choices for an AAU football brand to the east or west. I think they roll the dice and pick up Georgia Tech.

So there are your hypothetical divides if the PAC is spared and the SEC and the B1G expand to 18 at the ACC's expense.
The ACC leftovers form a 12 team league to match the PAC by adding Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF.

Yes- let’s sign up Duke, Virginia and Kansas to the B10 so Ohio State and Michigan can have even more conference mates they can beat 62-14 every week. How fun!

(10-12-2021 03:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

In my opinion, it's in the best interests of Duke, Wake Forest, and maybe BC and Syracuse to be pro-active and start planning for the inevitable. Nothing personal, it's just business.

It might be possible for those teams to preserve the basketball and other ACC sports at the expense of a full football share. Stubbornly holding on to P5 football membership when you can't even sell 40,000 tickets per game is futile - but if they make smart decisions now, I think they CAN remain in the P5 for all other sports.

No way does ESPN pay the same for these [current] 14 ACC teams as they pay for the B1G or SEC, so they need to reduce the divisor (i.e. the Big XII approach), then maybe look at poaching WVU, Cincinnati and/or UCF from the Big XII, if that helps revenue.

If the status quo continues, I think Duke and Syracuse end up in the Big East while Wake Forest and Boston College end up in the American Athletic Conference. As for Virginia Tech, I could see them ending up in the SEC, Big Ten, or the combined remnants of the ACC+Big XII, depending on where other chips fall.

JMO.

On the hypothetical that ESPN does not want to save the ACC, which would also mean that there has to be some mechanism to do away with the GORs I disagree with JR in that I don't think that the Notre Dame/Florida State move is made first (although I do think in this situation that Florida State would be SEC bound and Notre Dame would be committed to the B1G).
The first thing would be that the B1G would have to get to 16 like the SEC to have a starting point to advance to 18 or beyond.
The B1G chooses Carolina and UVa (this is long rumored and should surprise no one).
Then it's FSU to the SEC +1 and Notre Dame to the B1G +1.
Would the SEC bypass Clemson to get to NCSU or Va Tech? Tough call but in the end the brand power coupled with the rivalries with South Carolina, Georgia and Auburn tip the scales in the Tigers direction.
That places the B1G is a really tough position in that there aren't surefire choices for an AAU football brand to the east or west. I think they roll the dice and pick up Georgia Tech.

So there are your hypothetical divides if the PAC is spared and the SEC and the B1G expand to 18 at the ACC's expense.
The ACC leftovers form a 12 team league to match the PAC by adding Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF.

Except the networks will have a large sway in determining placement, a oft demonstrated fact which is seldom acknowledged by think like a president pundits.

Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech take the B1G to 18.
North Carolina and Virginia Tech take the SEC there.

Why?

ESPN if they keep their current % of the B1G they have now actually owns more of N.D. under the B1G than they do under the ACC. And N.D. earns FOX and ESPN more money playing a competitive, and potentially winnable, schedule in the B1G than they would in the PAC, SEC, or ACC.

Notre Dame's concession is Georgia Tech. This keeps them active in Deep South recruiting and ESPN insures OOC games in Texas, Louisiana and Florida.

Duke draws well in an important city, New York, and has a sizeable New England following. And Virginia would be an ESPN concession because Va Tech is the better TV product.

North Carolina and the SEC would have little say or sway. ESPN want's 100% of the Tar Heels and would profit more substantially tying the 20 million in Virginia and North Carolina into the two most watched conferences.

So the SEC would not land FSU and Clemson unless we went to 20, which in this scenario we are not doing. So the parsing of 2 states takes precedence.

Keep Clemson and Florida State in the ACC and a merger into a viable and more profitable third conference (for ESPN) comprised of AAC, B12, and ACC schools becomes very doable.

I listed FSU and ND because they are the 2 remaining top 10 football earning schools. N.D. makes ESPN, FOX and the B1G more money placed in the B10.

FSU makes ESPN more money helping to anchor a best of the rest conference designed to keep advertising control over the SE and SW in ESPN hands.

Double dipping Virginia and North Carolina are the main play to be made.

(10-12-2021 04:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  . . .
Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech take the B1G to 18.
North Carolina and Virginia Tech take the SEC there.
. . .
Keep Clemson and Florida State in the ACC and a merger into a viable and more profitable third conference (for ESPN) comprised of AAC, B12, and ACC schools becomes very doable.
. . .

If true, this results in an ACC/Big XII hybrid consisting of 20 teams:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pitt
WVU
Cincinnati
Louisville
Wake Forest
NC State
Clemson
Florida State
Miami
UCF
Houston
TCU
Baylor
Texas Tech
Oklahoma St
Kansas
Kansas St
Iowa St

Marquee games for this new league:
Pitt-WVU
Louisville-Cincinnati
NC State-Clemson-FSU-Miami
FSU-Miami-UCF
Houston-TCU-Baylor-Texas Tech

(10-12-2021 10:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 04:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  . . .
Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech take the B1G to 18.
North Carolina and Virginia Tech take the SEC there.
. . .
Keep Clemson and Florida State in the ACC and a merger into a viable and more profitable third conference (for ESPN) comprised of AAC, B12, and ACC schools becomes very doable.
. . .

If true, this results in an ACC/Big XII hybrid consisting of 20 teams:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pitt
WVU
Cincinnati
Louisville
Wake Forest
NC State
Clemson
Florida State
Miami
UCF
Houston
TCU
Baylor
Texas Tech
Oklahoma St
Kansas
Kansas St
Iowa St

Marquee games for this new league:
Pitt-WVU
Louisville-Cincinnati
NC State-Clemson-FSU-Miami
FSU-Miami-UCF
Houston-TCU-Baylor-Texas Tech

Any school not in the ETZ will have to fend for themselves. I doubt the PAC would be taking on any refugees either.

“FSU makes ESPN more money helping to anchor a best of the rest conference designed to keep advertising control over the SE and SW in ESPN hands.”

Completely agree. FSU would likely be accretive in the SEC, but to ESPN they are the essential piece of their lucrative ACC contract. In addition, UNC and Duke are a synergistic partnership (1+1=3)…they complement each other’s athletics and academics. IMO, maximizing athletic revenue is not UNC’s nor Duke’s top objective…these institutions prioritize prestige and will only split-up as a last resort. ESPN needs FSU in the ACC; and FSU’s continued membership reinforces the UNC-Duke journey in the ACC.

(10-12-2021 04:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 03:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

In my opinion, it's in the best interests of Duke, Wake Forest, and maybe BC and Syracuse to be pro-active and start planning for the inevitable. Nothing personal, it's just business.

It might be possible for those teams to preserve the basketball and other ACC sports at the expense of a full football share. Stubbornly holding on to P5 football membership when you can't even sell 40,000 tickets per game is futile - but if they make smart decisions now, I think they CAN remain in the P5 for all other sports.

No way does ESPN pay the same for these [current] 14 ACC teams as they pay for the B1G or SEC, so they need to reduce the divisor (i.e. the Big XII approach), then maybe look at poaching WVU, Cincinnati and/or UCF from the Big XII, if that helps revenue.

If the status quo continues, I think Duke and Syracuse end up in the Big East while Wake Forest and Boston College end up in the American Athletic Conference. As for Virginia Tech, I could see them ending up in the SEC, Big Ten, or the combined remnants of the ACC+Big XII, depending on where other chips fall.

JMO.

On the hypothetical that ESPN does not want to save the ACC, which would also mean that there has to be some mechanism to do away with the GORs I disagree with JR in that I don't think that the Notre Dame/Florida State move is made first (although I do think in this situation that Florida State would be SEC bound and Notre Dame would be committed to the B1G).
The first thing would be that the B1G would have to get to 16 like the SEC to have a starting point to advance to 18 or beyond.
The B1G chooses Carolina and UVa (this is long rumored and should surprise no one).
Then it's FSU to the SEC +1 and Notre Dame to the B1G +1.
Would the SEC bypass Clemson to get to NCSU or Va Tech? Tough call but in the end the brand power coupled with the rivalries with South Carolina, Georgia and Auburn tip the scales in the Tigers direction.
That places the B1G is a really tough position in that there aren't surefire choices for an AAU football brand to the east or west. I think they roll the dice and pick up Georgia Tech.

So there are your hypothetical divides if the PAC is spared and the SEC and the B1G expand to 18 at the ACC's expense.
The ACC leftovers form a 12 team league to match the PAC by adding Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF.

Except the networks will have a large sway in determining placement, a oft demonstrated fact which is seldom acknowledged by think like a president pundits.

Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech take the B1G to 18.
North Carolina and Virginia Tech take the SEC there.

Why?

ESPN if they keep their current % of the B1G they have now actually owns more of N.D. under the B1G than they do under the ACC. And N.D. earns FOX and ESPN more money playing a competitive, and potentially winnable, schedule in the B1G than they would in the PAC, SEC, or ACC.

Notre Dame's concession is Georgia Tech. This keeps them active in Deep South recruiting and ESPN insures OOC games in Texas, Louisiana and Florida.

Duke draws well in an important city, New York, and has a sizeable New England following. And Virginia would be an ESPN concession because Va Tech is the better TV product.

North Carolina and the SEC would have little say or sway. ESPN want's 100% of the Tar Heels and would profit more substantially tying the 20 million in Virginia and North Carolina into the two most watched conferences.

So the SEC would not land FSU and Clemson unless we went to 20, which in this scenario we are not doing. So the parsing of 2 states takes precedence.

Keep Clemson and Florida State in the ACC and a merger into a viable and more profitable third conference (for ESPN) comprised of AAC, B12, and ACC schools becomes very doable.

I listed FSU and ND because they are the 2 remaining top 10 football earning schools. N.D. makes ESPN, FOX and the B1G more money placed in the B10.

FSU makes ESPN more money helping to anchor a best of the rest conference designed to keep advertising control over the SE and SW in ESPN hands.

Double dipping Virginia and North Carolina are the main play to be made.

I don't see the B1G getting Notre Dame in my lifetime, and I am 44.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

(10-12-2021 04:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 03:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

In my opinion, it's in the best interests of Duke, Wake Forest, and maybe BC and Syracuse to be pro-active and start planning for the inevitable. Nothing personal, it's just business.

It might be possible for those teams to preserve the basketball and other ACC sports at the expense of a full football share. Stubbornly holding on to P5 football membership when you can't even sell 40,000 tickets per game is futile - but if they make smart decisions now, I think they CAN remain in the P5 for all other sports.

No way does ESPN pay the same for these [current] 14 ACC teams as they pay for the B1G or SEC, so they need to reduce the divisor (i.e. the Big XII approach), then maybe look at poaching WVU, Cincinnati and/or UCF from the Big XII, if that helps revenue.

If the status quo continues, I think Duke and Syracuse end up in the Big East while Wake Forest and Boston College end up in the American Athletic Conference. As for Virginia Tech, I could see them ending up in the SEC, Big Ten, or the combined remnants of the ACC+Big XII, depending on where other chips fall.

JMO.

On the hypothetical that ESPN does not want to save the ACC, which would also mean that there has to be some mechanism to do away with the GORs I disagree with JR in that I don't think that the Notre Dame/Florida State move is made first (although I do think in this situation that Florida State would be SEC bound and Notre Dame would be committed to the B1G).
The first thing would be that the B1G would have to get to 16 like the SEC to have a starting point to advance to 18 or beyond.
The B1G chooses Carolina and UVa (this is long rumored and should surprise no one).
Then it's FSU to the SEC +1 and Notre Dame to the B1G +1.
Would the SEC bypass Clemson to get to NCSU or Va Tech? Tough call but in the end the brand power coupled with the rivalries with South Carolina, Georgia and Auburn tip the scales in the Tigers direction.
That places the B1G is a really tough position in that there aren't surefire choices for an AAU football brand to the east or west. I think they roll the dice and pick up Georgia Tech.

So there are your hypothetical divides if the PAC is spared and the SEC and the B1G expand to 18 at the ACC's expense.
The ACC leftovers form a 12 team league to match the PAC by adding Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF.

Except the networks will have a large sway in determining placement, a oft demonstrated fact which is seldom acknowledged by think like a president pundits.

Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech take the B1G to 18.
North Carolina and Virginia Tech take the SEC there.

Why?

ESPN if they keep their current % of the B1G they have now actually owns more of N.D. under the B1G than they do under the ACC. And N.D. earns FOX and ESPN more money playing a competitive, and potentially winnable, schedule in the B1G than they would in the PAC, SEC, or ACC.

Notre Dame's concession is Georgia Tech. This keeps them active in Deep South recruiting and ESPN insures OOC games in Texas, Louisiana and Florida.

Duke draws well in an important city, New York, and has a sizeable New England following. And Virginia would be an ESPN concession because Va Tech is the better TV product.

North Carolina and the SEC would have little say or sway. ESPN want's 100% of the Tar Heels and would profit more substantially tying the 20 million in Virginia and North Carolina into the two most watched conferences.

So the SEC would not land FSU and Clemson unless we went to 20, which in this scenario we are not doing. So the parsing of 2 states takes precedence.

Keep Clemson and Florida State in the ACC and a merger into a viable and more profitable third conference (for ESPN) comprised of AAC, B12, and ACC schools becomes very doable.

I listed FSU and ND because they are the 2 remaining top 10 football earning schools. N.D. makes ESPN, FOX and the B1G more money placed in the B10.

FSU makes ESPN more money helping to anchor a best of the rest conference designed to keep advertising control over the SE and SW in ESPN hands.

Double dipping Virginia and North Carolina are the main play to be made.

You said the market model was dead. It's all about brands now, you said.

I have looked at this thing several times, and there is no way on GOD's green earth that Carolina would join the SEC with just Virginia Tech in tow.

(10-13-2021 01:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 04:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 03:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The ACC could've been the premiere league... but that process would've had to begin back in the late 70's. It was still salvageable in the early 2010's. By now it's basically too late - ESPN would have to want to save it, and I'm not sure they do (at least, not ALL 14 teams).

I see two possibilities:

1) Some of the least-valuable ACC teams agree to drop down to non-football members so they can maintain their basketball rivalries while boosting the football-first revenues. (i.e. take one for the "team")

2) At the end of the GoR, the best football teams all leave and the whole thing blows up - leaving those same low-value teams at the mercy of realignment, completely out of their control.

In my opinion, it's in the best interests of Duke, Wake Forest, and maybe BC and Syracuse to be pro-active and start planning for the inevitable. Nothing personal, it's just business.

It might be possible for those teams to preserve the basketball and other ACC sports at the expense of a full football share. Stubbornly holding on to P5 football membership when you can't even sell 40,000 tickets per game is futile - but if they make smart decisions now, I think they CAN remain in the P5 for all other sports.

No way does ESPN pay the same for these [current] 14 ACC teams as they pay for the B1G or SEC, so they need to reduce the divisor (i.e. the Big XII approach), then maybe look at poaching WVU, Cincinnati and/or UCF from the Big XII, if that helps revenue.

If the status quo continues, I think Duke and Syracuse end up in the Big East while Wake Forest and Boston College end up in the American Athletic Conference. As for Virginia Tech, I could see them ending up in the SEC, Big Ten, or the combined remnants of the ACC+Big XII, depending on where other chips fall.

JMO.

On the hypothetical that ESPN does not want to save the ACC, which would also mean that there has to be some mechanism to do away with the GORs I disagree with JR in that I don't think that the Notre Dame/Florida State move is made first (although I do think in this situation that Florida State would be SEC bound and Notre Dame would be committed to the B1G).
The first thing would be that the B1G would have to get to 16 like the SEC to have a starting point to advance to 18 or beyond.
The B1G chooses Carolina and UVa (this is long rumored and should surprise no one).
Then it's FSU to the SEC +1 and Notre Dame to the B1G +1.
Would the SEC bypass Clemson to get to NCSU or Va Tech? Tough call but in the end the brand power coupled with the rivalries with South Carolina, Georgia and Auburn tip the scales in the Tigers direction.
That places the B1G is a really tough position in that there aren't surefire choices for an AAU football brand to the east or west. I think they roll the dice and pick up Georgia Tech.

So there are your hypothetical divides if the PAC is spared and the SEC and the B1G expand to 18 at the ACC's expense.
The ACC leftovers form a 12 team league to match the PAC by adding Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF.

Except the networks will have a large sway in determining placement, a oft demonstrated fact which is seldom acknowledged by think like a president pundits.

Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech take the B1G to 18.
North Carolina and Virginia Tech take the SEC there.

Why?

ESPN if they keep their current % of the B1G they have now actually owns more of N.D. under the B1G than they do under the ACC. And N.D. earns FOX and ESPN more money playing a competitive, and potentially winnable, schedule in the B1G than they would in the PAC, SEC, or ACC.

Notre Dame's concession is Georgia Tech. This keeps them active in Deep South recruiting and ESPN insures OOC games in Texas, Louisiana and Florida.

Duke draws well in an important city, New York, and has a sizeable New England following. And Virginia would be an ESPN concession because Va Tech is the better TV product.

North Carolina and the SEC would have little say or sway. ESPN want's 100% of the Tar Heels and would profit more substantially tying the 20 million in Virginia and North Carolina into the two most watched conferences.

So the SEC would not land FSU and Clemson unless we went to 20, which in this scenario we are not doing. So the parsing of 2 states takes precedence.

Keep Clemson and Florida State in the ACC and a merger into a viable and more profitable third conference (for ESPN) comprised of AAC, B12, and ACC schools becomes very doable.

I listed FSU and ND because they are the 2 remaining top 10 football earning schools. N.D. makes ESPN, FOX and the B1G more money placed in the B10.

FSU makes ESPN more money helping to anchor a best of the rest conference designed to keep advertising control over the SE and SW in ESPN hands.

Double dipping Virginia and North Carolina are the main play to be made.

You said the market model was dead. It's all about brands now, you said.

I have looked at this thing several times, and there is no way on GOD's green earth that Carolina would join the SEC with just Virginia Tech in tow.

The market model was based on subscription fees and it is dead. That doesn't mean markets are without value, provided their people actually watch, which they didn't have to do with the subscription fee model. Who is the top brand in North Carolina? UNC. Who is the top brand in Virginia? It's more of a toss up but Tech has more. Who is paying for these moves should they happen? ESPN. Who is it that makes more money from their sports rights purchase of the ACC if they can draw the eyes of the B1G and SEC into the states of North Carolina and Virginia, especially if they can tie the Southwest into Florida and North Carolina by rebuilding a raided ACC by merging B12, AAC and ACC schools into a 4th P conference? ESPN. And which conference do they hold which has some of the poorest viewer numbers and constantly is pressured for higher revenue to keep up with the neighbors? The ACC.

From a business standpoint these kinds of moves are strong and savvy. This is how product placement utilizes the same schools in different arrangements in order to maximize value. It is a radical departure from your traditions, but those traditions were why you had fallen so far behind. And since we are about to add the overhead of employing athletes your traditions were simply not sustainable as a structure.

If only there was a way to get some of the more academically minded programs to coalesce into a Magnolia League:

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
Northwestern
UVA
UNC
Duke
WF
GT
Vanderbilt

Missouri slides into the Big 10, putting both the Big Ten and SEC at 14.

Add the last 6 ACC schools (VT, NC St, Clemson, Louisville, FSU, & Miami) to the Big 12 (those 6 + Cincy, WVU, and UCF form the East Division)

(10-13-2021 04:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If only there was a way to get some of the more academically minded programs to coalesce into a Magnolia League:

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
Northwestern
UVA
UNC
Duke
WF
GT
Vanderbilt

Missouri slides into the Big 10, putting both the Big Ten and SEC at 14.

Add the last 6 ACC schools (VT, NC St, Clemson, Louisville, FSU, & Miami) to the Big 12 (those 6 + Cincy, WVU, and UCF form the East Division)

Add Tulane and the three service academies and the Magnolia League has a larger draw and 2 more distinctive divisions:

Air Force, Army, Boston College, Navy, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wake Forest


New Big 12:
Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Louisville, Notre Dame/ or Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Miami, N.C. State

(10-13-2021 05:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 04:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If only there was a way to get some of the more academically minded programs to coalesce into a Magnolia League:

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
Northwestern
UVA
UNC
Duke
WF
GT
Vanderbilt

Missouri slides into the Big 10, putting both the Big Ten and SEC at 14.

Add the last 6 ACC schools (VT, NC St, Clemson, Louisville, FSU, & Miami) to the Big 12 (those 6 + Cincy, WVU, and UCF form the East Division)

Add Tulane and the three service academies and the Magnolia League has a larger draw and 2 more distinctive divisions:

Air Force, Army, Boston College, Navy, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wake Forest


New Big 12:
Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Louisville, Notre Dame/ or Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Miami, N.C. State

Don't see any of it. ESPN would have to hire the Mafia to make that happen, IMO

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

(10-13-2021 04:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If only there was a way to get some of the more academically minded programs to coalesce into a Magnolia League:

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
Northwestern
UVA
UNC
Duke
WF
GT
Vanderbilt

Missouri slides into the Big 10, putting both the Big Ten and SEC at 14.

Add the last 6 ACC schools (VT, NC St, Clemson, Louisville, FSU, & Miami) to the Big 12 (those 6 + Cincy, WVU, and UCF form the East Division)

I can’t believe a network would find this appealing. These are great academic schools, but the only reason anyone watches their football games are when they are playing someone else of high interest (Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, Alabama etc). It’s not like their is a huge market of guys sitting at home going “I don’t care both teams are 1-3, Northwestern and BC have great Econ programs. I have to watch this football game.”

(10-13-2021 09:28 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  “FSU makes ESPN more money helping to anchor a best of the rest conference designed to keep advertising control over the SE and SW in ESPN hands.”

Completely agree. FSU would likely be accretive in the SEC, but to ESPN they are the essential piece of their lucrative ACC contract. In addition, UNC and Duke are a synergistic partnership (1+1=3)…they complement each other’s athletics and academics. IMO, maximizing athletic revenue is not UNC’s nor Duke’s top objective…these institutions prioritize prestige and will only split-up as a last resort. ESPN needs FSU in the ACC; and FSU’s continued membership reinforces the UNC-Duke journey in the ACC.

Unless Duke de-emphasizes football, I don't see UNC and Duke splitting. For that matter, UVA and UNC either.

(10-14-2021 11:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 09:28 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  “FSU makes ESPN more money helping to anchor a best of the rest conference designed to keep advertising control over the SE and SW in ESPN hands.”

Completely agree. FSU would likely be accretive in the SEC, but to ESPN they are the essential piece of their lucrative ACC contract. In addition, UNC and Duke are a synergistic partnership (1+1=3)…they complement each other’s athletics and academics. IMO, maximizing athletic revenue is not UNC’s nor Duke’s top objective…these institutions prioritize prestige and will only split-up as a last resort. ESPN needs FSU in the ACC; and FSU’s continued membership reinforces the UNC-Duke journey in the ACC.

Unless Duke de-emphasizes football, I don't see UNC and Duke splitting. For that matter, UVA and UNC either.

Didn't you know? Duke was THE private school football program long before Notre Dame even thought of it (with national championships, major bowl games, the works). They de-emphasized football long ago... they just never bothered to drop down a level.