RE: UAB opens as a 16 point favorite against Southern Miss
...I went thru the ESPN 'game predictor' thing for all of our remaining games, and we are ONLY a dog at UTSA - 65%-35% or something like that... only other one of concern is Marshall, where it was UAB 51% chance.
So, if those hold true (yeah I'm betting the farm on ALL of these ), looking at 9-3 at worst, and I guess UTSA is undefeated here on out... thus no championship chance unless we roast that roadrunner again... a LOOOONG ways to go, of course, but still cool to know we are primarily on the right side of even 'generic' prognostication...
RE: UAB opens as a 16 point favorite against Southern Miss
(10-13-2021 06:48 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote: ...I went thru the ESPN 'game predictor' thing for all of our remaining games, and we are ONLY a dog at UTSA - 65%-35% or something like that... only other one of concern is Marshall, where it was UAB 51% chance.
So, if those hold true (yeah I'm betting the farm on ALL of these ), looking at 9-3 at worst, and I guess UTSA is undefeated here on out... thus no championship chance unless we roast that roadrunner again... a LOOOONG ways to go, of course, but still cool to know we are primarily on the right side of even 'generic' prognostication...
I’m not convinced La Tech won’t take either UAB or UTSA. Not both, but could definitely see them getting one. They host UTSA and visit Bham, so at least we have that going for us. They almost beat Mississippi State and SMU and then hung with NC State. Potential trap game for both UAB and UTSA. Albeit their wins were kinda meh against UNT and SE Louisiana. Hard team to read.
Assuming we beat La Tech and our only loss is to UTSA, then UTSA would have to lose 2 CUSA games for us to win the west. Looking at their schedule, La Tech and UTEP (LMAO) looks like their only other chances to lose. On the other hand, UAB could lose to La Tech and beat UTSA and still capture the west. I am incredibly nervous for that matchup.
RE: UAB opens as a 16 point favorite against Southern Miss
(10-13-2021 10:16 PM)Engblazr Wrote:
(10-13-2021 06:48 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote: ...I went thru the ESPN 'game predictor' thing for all of our remaining games, and we are ONLY a dog at UTSA - 65%-35% or something like that... only other one of concern is Marshall, where it was UAB 51% chance.
So, if those hold true (yeah I'm betting the farm on ALL of these ), looking at 9-3 at worst, and I guess UTSA is undefeated here on out... thus no championship chance unless we roast that roadrunner again... a LOOOONG ways to go, of course, but still cool to know we are primarily on the right side of even 'generic' prognostication...
I’m not convinced La Tech won’t take either UAB or UTSA. Not both, but could definitely see them getting one. They host UTSA and visit Bham, so at least we have that going for us. They almost beat Mississippi State and SMU and then hung with NC State. Potential trap game for both UAB and UTSA. Albeit their wins were kinda meh against UNT and SE Louisiana. Hard team to read.
Assuming we beat La Tech and our only loss is to UTSA, then UTSA would have to lose 2 CUSA games for us to win the west. Looking at their schedule, La Tech and UTEP (LMAO) looks like their only other chances to lose. On the other hand, UAB could lose to La Tech and beat UTSA and still capture the west. I am incredibly nervous for that matchup.
...it's good we have LaTech at home, as they could definitely be a player at the end... I think other than the UTSA road game, I'm most worried about Marshall on the road... especially since we took the championship against them there last year, I figure they might have us 'circled' on the schedule...
RE: UAB opens as a 16 point favorite against Southern Miss
Based on how the Blazers' schedule lays out, this would normally be the week I'd worry about a letdown between that early tough stretch and the upcoming stretch of La Tech/Marshall/UTSA. Guys have had to be "up" for several weeks and last week was a back-against-the-wall kind of game. It'd be human nature to have a flat week.
If we were going to Rice/MTSU/Charlotte/WKU this week, I'd be really worried about it. But because it's Southern Miss, and I know there's a lot of bad blood there, I expect the Blazers will be mentally sharp. And then it comes down to matchups. I just don't see USM being able to handle the Blazer defensive front.
RE: UAB opens as a 16 point favorite against Southern Miss
(10-14-2021 07:54 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote: Based on how the Blazers' schedule lays out, this would normally be the week I'd worry about a letdown between that early tough stretch and the upcoming stretch of La Tech/Marshall/UTSA. Guys have had to be "up" for several weeks and last week was a back-against-the-wall kind of game. It'd be human nature to have a flat week.
If we were going to Rice/MTSU/Charlotte/WKU this week, I'd be really worried about it. But because it's Southern Miss, and I know there's a lot of bad blood there, I expect the Blazers will be mentally sharp. And then it comes down to matchups. I just don't see USM being able to handle the Blazer defensive front.
I am super glad we didn’t draw WKU as a cross division opponent. That would be a shootout and we all know how UAB fares in those