First domino to fall.

I really feel with CUSA's embarrassing ploy failing miserably, AAC is going to strike (and then Belt will make their move).

Most of this realignment should be sorted out by the end of the month.

(10-13-2021 11:29 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  I really feel with CUSA's embarrassing ploy failing miserably, AAC is going to strike (and then Belt will make their move).

Actions speak louder than words. The AAC taking C-USA teams (and the SBC subsequently taking C-USA teams) would show Judy exactly what everyone thinks of her plan.

Guy had some further interesting tweets..

I’m hearing UAB is getting cold feet. Mainly due to future instability of the AAC. They want to be in a league with Memphis. The AAC is less appealing to them if Memphis isn’t there.

The real question is, is it worth the exit/entrance fee to join a league as a short term solution?

The SBC is the most stable G5 conference and is continuing to improve. I’m sure there are discussions ongoing between who the SBC and AAC are willing to take on. But there is an outside chance the SBC adds 4. Most likely 2, I’m just ready for it to be over….at least for another 3-5 years.

(10-13-2021 11:48 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  I’m hearing UAB is getting cold feet. Mainly due to future instability of the AAC. They want to be in a league with Memphis. The AAC is less appealing to them if Memphis isn’t there.

The real question is, is it worth the exit/entrance fee to join a league as a short term solution?

The SBC is the most stable G5 conference and is continuing to improve. I’m sure there are discussions ongoing between who the SBC and AAC are willing to take on. But there is an outside chance the SBC adds 4. Most likely 2, I’m just ready for it to be over….at least for another 3-5 years.

This is the ultimate issue. Memphis has one foot out the door waiting on the Big XII. Is it worth teams to pony up the cash to be in the AAC if they lose Memphis and maybe SMU? I think that may be AACs biggest issue with getting some teams to join. Then again it really depends on the tv deal. If it is 2-3x larger, they may go for it. I am just curious to see what the AAC expects as far as budget requirements. Will they tell teams they have a minimum budget to spend or will they let in a team that will keep the same budget they have now?

(10-13-2021 11:48 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  I’m hearing UAB is getting cold feet. Mainly due to future instability of the AAC. They want to be in a league with Memphis. The AAC is less appealing to them if Memphis isn’t there.

The real question is, is it worth the exit/entrance fee to join a league as a short term solution?

The SBC is the most stable G5 conference and is continuing to improve. I’m sure there are discussions ongoing between who the SBC and AAC are willing to take on. But there is an outside chance the SBC adds 4. Most likely 2, I’m just ready for it to be over….at least for another 3-5 years.

Can this all be over already

(10-13-2021 01:08 PM)SouthJags2012 Wrote:  Can this all be over already

Who knows if it will ever be over, but I don't know that we get a real reprieve until 2025 (or whenever the dust settles on OU/UT actually leaving the Big 12). Gonna be a rollercoaster of knives in backs until then.

(10-13-2021 01:08 PM)SouthJags2012 Wrote:  Can this all be over already

I think even if AAC and Sunbelt made their moves today, realignment won't be over (especially not with Big 12 lingering on expanding further)

(10-13-2021 11:48 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  I’m hearing UAB is getting cold feet. Mainly due to future instability of the AAC. They want to be in a league with Memphis. The AAC is less appealing to them if Memphis isn’t there.

The real question is, is it worth the exit/entrance fee to join a league as a short term solution?

The SBC is the most stable G5 conference and is continuing to improve. I’m sure there are discussions ongoing between who the SBC and AAC are willing to take on. But there is an outside chance the SBC adds 4. Most likely 2, I’m just ready for it to be over….at least for another 3-5 years.

There is no such thing as stability at the G5 level. G5 conferences are as stable as the P5 conferences are. The AAC is unstable because it has members that are the most obvious choices to be called upon if holes are needed to be filled. However, if the AAC dissolved and the best members decided screw it lets all go to the Sun-Belt that wouldn't end G5 instability, it would just change the inflection point of the instability.

(10-13-2021 01:29 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 11:48 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  I’m hearing UAB is getting cold feet. Mainly due to future instability of the AAC. They want to be in a league with Memphis. The AAC is less appealing to them if Memphis isn’t there.

The real question is, is it worth the exit/entrance fee to join a league as a short term solution?

The SBC is the most stable G5 conference and is continuing to improve. I’m sure there are discussions ongoing between who the SBC and AAC are willing to take on. But there is an outside chance the SBC adds 4. Most likely 2, I’m just ready for it to be over….at least for another 3-5 years.

There is no such thing as stability at the G5 level. G5 conferences are as stable as the P5 conferences are. The AAC is unstable because it has members that are the most obvious choices to be called upon if holes are needed to be filled. However, if the AAC dissolved and the best members decided screw it lets all go to the Sun-Belt that wouldn't end G5 instability, it would just change the inflection point of the instability.

I bed to differ. The MAC, MWC and the SBC all seem to be stable. The instability amongst the G5 programs are from private universities and tweener programs. The G5 programs that are caught between the P5 and the rest (budgets/fan support/facilities) those programs aren’t stable. They are trying to join the haves.

Kind of crazy thought I had.

I wonder if the Sun Belt would consider just going ahead and inviting Southern Miss and make it a formality, like tomorrow, if indeed both sides want each other. A second, or third and fourth, new member could be announced later.

The Sun Belt has reason to be a bit insulted that, with the AAC, SB, and C-USA territories all overlapping the same regions, C-USA only sent a letter to the AAC. The SB could take it as a slap in the face and just go ahead and take one of their own, which really is no different than what C-USA did to the SB with FIVE schools.

It would be petty. And it would be a gamble without a second school completely lined up. But it would also exert strength and tell the CFB world the SB it is to be taken seriously.

(10-13-2021 01:37 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:29 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 11:48 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  I’m hearing UAB is getting cold feet. Mainly due to future instability of the AAC. They want to be in a league with Memphis. The AAC is less appealing to them if Memphis isn’t there.

The real question is, is it worth the exit/entrance fee to join a league as a short term solution?

The SBC is the most stable G5 conference and is continuing to improve. I’m sure there are discussions ongoing between who the SBC and AAC are willing to take on. But there is an outside chance the SBC adds 4. Most likely 2, I’m just ready for it to be over….at least for another 3-5 years.

There is no such thing as stability at the G5 level. G5 conferences are as stable as the P5 conferences are. The AAC is unstable because it has members that are the most obvious choices to be called upon if holes are needed to be filled. However, if the AAC dissolved and the best members decided screw it lets all go to the Sun-Belt that wouldn't end G5 instability, it would just change the inflection point of the instability.

I bed to differ. The MAC, MWC and the SBC all seem to be stable. The instability amongst the G5 programs are from private universities and tweener programs. The G5 programs that are caught between the P5 and the rest (budgets/fan support/facilities) those programs aren’t stable. They are trying to join the haves.

MWC is anything but stable, and the AAC would remain stable if the P5 didn't do anything. If the AAC died and those schools went to whatever other leagues out there those leagues would be exactly as stable as the P5 leagues are.

(10-13-2021 01:29 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  There is no such thing as stability at the G5 level. G5 conferences are as stable as the P5 conferences are. The AAC is unstable because it has members that are the most obvious choices to be called upon if holes are needed to be filled. However, if the AAC dissolved and the best members decided screw it lets all go to the Sun-Belt that wouldn't end G5 instability, it would just change the inflection point of the instability.

I bed to differ. The MAC, MWC and the SBC all seem to be stable. The instability amongst the G5 programs are from private universities and tweener programs. The G5 programs that are caught between the P5 and the rest (budgets/fan support/facilities) those programs aren’t stable. They are trying to join the haves.
[/quote]

Stability can be a good thing but doesn't automatically mean it's because a conference is good.

The MAC is stable because no one wants their teams. Low support, low budgets, declining rust belt cities.

The MWC lost their best teams in BYU, TCU, and Utah last time around. Boise was in talks with the Big 12 but didn't get picked. 4 of the teams were in talks but didn't bite on an AAC move. The MWC is only becoming somewhat stable due to running low on teams that others want to take and being in the wrong half of the country for college football.

The SBC and CUSA both had lots of turnover last go around too. The SBC's recent stability is a combination of now being just as good if not better than CUSA, it's normal predator, and not really having schools that fit the institutional profile of the AAC (other than maybe Georgia State).

But to the other posters point, if the SBC does become the best G5 in the Southeast with growing tweener programs, it will always have some looming threat of instability just like the AAC did.

(10-13-2021 01:29 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 11:48 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  I’m hearing UAB is getting cold feet. Mainly due to future instability of the AAC. They want to be in a league with Memphis. The AAC is less appealing to them if Memphis isn’t there.

The real question is, is it worth the exit/entrance fee to join a league as a short term solution?

The SBC is the most stable G5 conference and is continuing to improve. I’m sure there are discussions ongoing between who the SBC and AAC are willing to take on. But there is an outside chance the SBC adds 4. Most likely 2, I’m just ready for it to be over….at least for another 3-5 years.

There is no such thing as stability at the G5 level. G5 conferences are as stable as the P5 conferences are. The AAC is unstable because it has members that are the most obvious choices to be called upon if holes are needed to be filled. However, if the AAC dissolved and the best members decided screw it lets all go to the Sun-Belt that wouldn't end G5 instability, it would just change the inflection point of the instability.

Realignment has been about two things.
Market inefficiencies and survival.

We got a round of realignment to address the big 3 networks negotiating directly with conferences. Leagues had to adjust to get good revenue.

We got another round as the carriage fee economy took off. Instead of worrying about viewers it became networks demanding maximum carriage fee from cable.

Then the era of the conference network.

We are dipping our toes into the streaming economy.

As each transition took place some leagues were left seeking a way to survive being raided.

Until how fans consume and pay for sports content settles down turmoil is inevitable

(10-13-2021 01:41 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Kind of crazy thought I had.

I wonder if the Sun Belt would consider just going ahead and inviting Southern Miss and make it a formality, like tomorrow, if indeed both sides want each other. A second, or third and fourth, new member could be announced later.

The Sun Belt has reason to be a bit insulted that, with the AAC, SB, and C-USA territories all overlapping the same regions, C-USA only sent a letter to the AAC. The SB could take it as a slap in the face and just go ahead and take one of their own, which really is no different than what C-USA did to the SB with FIVE schools.

It would be petty. And it would be a gamble without a second school completely lined up. But it would also exert strength and tell the CFB world the SB it is to be taken seriously.

I'm starting to like this idea. You get them on board now, and let UAB think about things. Wouldn't hurt to congratulate Memphis on their upcoming Big12 invite.

(10-13-2021 01:41 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Kind of crazy thought I had.

I wonder if the Sun Belt would consider just going ahead and inviting Southern Miss and make it a formality, like tomorrow, if indeed both sides want each other. A second, or third and fourth, new member could be announced later.

The Sun Belt has reason to be a bit insulted that, with the AAC, SB, and C-USA territories all overlapping the same regions, C-USA only sent a letter to the AAC. The SB could take it as a slap in the face and just go ahead and take one of their own, which really is no different than what C-USA did to the SB with FIVE schools.

It would be petty. And it would be a gamble without a second school completely lined up. But it would also exert strength and tell the CFB world the SB it is to be taken seriously.

Depends on USM leadership. If they think an early announcement is going to be perceived as giving up on AAC they aren’t taking that heat.

(10-13-2021 02:01 PM)space orange Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:29 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  There is no such thing as stability at the G5 level. G5 conferences are as stable as the P5 conferences are. The AAC is unstable because it has members that are the most obvious choices to be called upon if holes are needed to be filled. However, if the AAC dissolved and the best members decided screw it lets all go to the Sun-Belt that wouldn't end G5 instability, it would just change the inflection point of the instability.

I bed to differ. The MAC, MWC and the SBC all seem to be stable. The instability amongst the G5 programs are from private universities and tweener programs. The G5 programs that are caught between the P5 and the rest (budgets/fan support/facilities) those programs aren’t stable. They are trying to join the haves.

Stability can be a good thing but doesn't automatically mean it's because a conference is good.

The MAC is stable because no one wants their teams. Low support, low budgets, declining rust belt cities.

The MWC lost their best teams in BYU, TCU, and Utah last time around. Boise was in talks with the Big 12 but didn't get picked. 4 of the teams were in talks but didn't bite on an AAC move. The MWC is only becoming somewhat stable due to running low on teams that others want to take and being in the wrong half of the country for college football.

The SBC and CUSA both had lots of turnover last go around too. The SBC's recent stability is a combination of now being just as good if not better than CUSA, it's normal predator, and not really having schools that fit the institutional profile of the AAC (other than maybe Georgia State).

But to the other posters point, if the SBC does become the best G5 in the Southeast with growing tweener programs, it will always have some looming threat of instability just like the AAC did.
[/quote]

Good post. Your point about the SBC is one of the reasons why I don’t see lateral movement between the CUSA and SBC unless the CUSA is raided to the point where quality is severely damaged or it’s to ability to survive as a conference is in question. It’s also why USM or Marshall won’t make a move until the AAC situation is settled.