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Cincinnati in CFP
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 03:52 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:57 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Wake is the ONLY P5 they get in ahead of!

No

In a normal season, Cincy gets more respect than Wake because the W/L record of the Bearcats is generally a lot better.

If both teams are undefeated at the end the season, Wake's schedule is much tougher. Wake will need 6 P5 wins on the road (and 10 P5 wins overall). Cincy is getting the current buzz because they won 2 P5 games on the road (plus the game against the Domers got extra media attention)...Cincy's future opponents are in the AAC, which has much weaker programs than the ACC. It would not be a close call for the CFP committee.

Wake's chances of going undefeated may be small, but any undefeated P5 conference champ will easily beat any undefeated G5 champion.

Oh I agree that a P5 team gets in ahead of Cincinnati. My point was Wake and their lack of pedigree is Cincinnati’s only hope.
10-12-2021 04:00 PM
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Post: #22
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 03:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:33 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Does ANYONE actually believe TPTB will allow Cincinnati to get into the playoff?! There’s NO WAY IN HELL A G5 is allowed a shot at a championship!

Sadly, I think Cincy has a very good chance of making the playoffs. If anything, I think the CFP would like to 'prove' that there is no bias against the G5, and so I think if any bias is involved it will be in their favor.

I say "sadly" because Cincy just does not play a playoff-worthy schedule. I mean, look at the teams Arkansas has had to face. They played Texas, then Texas AM, then Georgia, then Ole Miss. I mean, that's a murderers row - and they still have tp play Auburn and Alabama to boot!

Georgia just had a huge road game vs Auburn, and now they have to turn around and play #11 Kentucky.

IMO, it is crazy that a team that will play nobody but teams like ECU, SMU, Temple, Navy, USF, etc. can make the playoffs. It's just not a worthy schedule.

Georgia and Alabama with 2 losses probably get in ahead of Cincinnati. Big 10 champ with 1 loss. And that still leaves Oregon, Big 12 champ and a 1 loss ACC champ. They might even put Notre Dame ahead of them, especially if they can justify Notre Dame as #3 so they don't have to compare head to head (#4-#6 get compared in that manner).
10-12-2021 04:01 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 01:40 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Maybe.

Undefeated conference champion is in over Cincinnati from: ACC (Wake Forest), B1G (Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St), SEC (Georgia, Kentucky), XII (Oklahoma, Oklahoma St)
1-loss conference champion is in over Cincinnati from: B1G (above + Penn St), PAC (Arizona St, Oregon), SEC (above + Alabama, Mississippi), XII (above if lone loss is in Bedlam)

My guess would be the B1G and SEC are locks. The XII is third. The fourth spot is up for grabs between Cincinnati, Oregon, and a non-champion from the B1G or SEC.

Succinct and accurate.

(10-12-2021 02:49 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  ----

1. Georgia (only loss to Alabama in SEC)
2. Alabama (Wins rest; beats GA in SEC Champ game)

3a. Oklahoma (unbeaten; wins B12)
3b. OK-State (unbeaten; wins B12)
3c. Baylor (1 loss but makes up for it by sweeping table)

4a. Ohio State (Wins rest; very impressive; B10 stacked this year)
4b. Iowa (Goes undefeated; wow)
4c. UM/MSU (Goes undefeated; wow)
4d. Penn State (Wins rest; gets revenge on Iowa in B10 Champ game)

5a. Wake Forrest (Undefeated winning ACC)
5b. NC State (Wins rest to win ACC; 1 loss to Miss State)
5c. Pittsburgh (Wins rest to win ACC; 1 loss to WMU)

6a. Oregon (Wins rest; 1L but beat Ohio State)
6b. AZ State (Wins rest; 1L to ranked BYU)

----

I like the format you used to lay this out. I'd put 4b and 4c as able to lose 1 more. I think your 5a gets in over 3c, but both are highly unlikely.

(10-12-2021 02:38 PM)Tmac13 Wrote:  What would happen if SMU beat Cincinnati, not once, but twice? They play late in the year, then they could play again in the conference championship game. If SMU remained undefeated knocking off Cincinnati twice, would they get any of the same playoff consideration?

I've got SMU as being given the same consideration as Cincinnati if undefeated (though 25x less likely). If the AAC champ is undefeated, 87% likelihood they make the playoff.

They have a 'decent' P5 victory over TCU and beating Cincinnati twice looks better than beating SMU twice, if you're allowed to count it like that. SMU also gets Houston.
10-12-2021 04:05 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 03:52 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:57 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Wake is the ONLY P5 they get in ahead of!

No

In a normal season, Cincy gets more respect than Wake because the W/L record of the Bearcats is generally a lot better.

If both teams are undefeated at the end the season, Wake's schedule is much tougher. Wake will need 6 P5 wins on the road (and 10 P5 wins overall). Cincy is getting the current buzz because they won 2 P5 games on the road (plus the game against the Domers got extra media attention)...Cincy's future opponents are in the AAC, which has much weaker programs than the ACC. It would not be a close call for the CFP committee.

Wake's chances of going undefeated may be small, but any undefeated P5 conference champ will easily beat any undefeated G5 champion.


The ACC is as weak as it has ever been.

Wake's toughest game is on the road against an unranked Clemson team.

Yes, the American is also weak. But when you're discussing "tallest midget," you have to include the nonconference schedule. And no one on Wake's schedule is anywhere near as good as Notre Dame this year. Wake's toughest opponent is more along the lines of SMU (who is Cincinnati's 2nd toughest opponent).
10-12-2021 05:10 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
There's to much football yet to be played to know any certainty. What is certain is no non-autonomous program has been this close to a potential CFP birth. It has also proven to be an unprecedented year in top ranked programs suffering early losses. Parity or chance? If anything it makes the conversation more interesting that the same ol' teams aren't locks for the CFP. Stay tuned...
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 05:22 PM by UCGrad1992.)
10-12-2021 05:21 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 02:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:40 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Maybe.

Undefeated conference champion is in over Cincinnati from: ACC (Wake Forest), B1G (Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St), SEC (Georgia, Kentucky), XII (Oklahoma, Oklahoma St)
1-loss conference champion is in over Cincinnati from: B1G (above + Penn St), PAC (Arizona St, Oregon), SEC (above + Alabama, Mississippi), XII (above if lone loss is in Bedlam)

My guess would be the B1G and SEC are locks. The XII is third. The fourth spot is up for grabs between Cincinnati, Oregon, and a non-champion from the B1G or SEC.

I wouldn't say the Big 12 is a lock by any stretch of the imagination. Texas could easily win out and they control their own destiny for conference title, but 2 loss Texas wouldn't get in over undefeated Cincy. And 1 loss Oklahoma non champion doesn't get in over Cincy either IMO.

I didn’t say the XII was a lock.
10-12-2021 06:07 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 05:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 03:52 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:57 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Wake is the ONLY P5 they get in ahead of!

No

In a normal season, Cincy gets more respect than Wake because the W/L record of the Bearcats is generally a lot better.

If both teams are undefeated at the end the season, Wake's schedule is much tougher. Wake will need 6 P5 wins on the road (and 10 P5 wins overall). Cincy is getting the current buzz because they won 2 P5 games on the road (plus the game against the Domers got extra media attention)...Cincy's future opponents are in the AAC, which has much weaker programs than the ACC. It would not be a close call for the CFP committee.

Wake's chances of going undefeated may be small, but any undefeated P5 conference champ will easily beat any undefeated G5 champion.


The ACC is as weak as it has ever been.

Wake's toughest game is on the road against an unranked Clemson team.

Yes, the American is also weak. But when you're discussing "tallest midget," you have to include the nonconference schedule. And no one on Wake's schedule is anywhere near as good as Notre Dame this year. Wake's toughest opponent is more along the lines of SMU (who is Cincinnati's 2nd toughest opponent).

You’re right that the ACC is as weak as it has ever been, but that is still more challenging than the AAC slate. Per the current Massey Composite Index:

Cincy has 6 meaningful games against ND (#10), SMU (26), Indiana (64), UCF (69), ECU (86) and Tulsa (90)

Wake has 10 meaningful games against Clem (#24), NCSt (28), BC (42), UVa (46), Army (53), UNC (60), Louisville (62), Syracuse (76), FSU (80) and Duke (92)

At the end of the day, all CFP contenders’ overall body of work will be judged against other schools. An undefeated Wake (even with its weak ACC schedule) will have played a much tougher schedule than Cincy.
10-12-2021 06:14 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 03:46 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  NOBODY wants to watch Cincinnati play in a major bowl! This is why they won’t get into CFP OR NY6 bowl.

Would be a really bad look for UConn if an AAC team makes it so I understand where this is coming from 03-lmfao
10-12-2021 06:23 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
Need OU to lose. I think they need Oregon to lose another or look really shaky as a one loss P5 champ. Preferably OU and Oregon lose.

If it’s Iowa 12-0 vs PSU/UM/OSU/MSU 11-1, and Iowa loses, that’s major trouble for UC.

ND will keep slipping in the rankings I feel. It was not enough of a statement win to differentiate themselves. I’ll really be gutted for UC if they go 12-0 and miss out.
10-12-2021 06:30 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 06:07 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 02:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:40 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Maybe.

Undefeated conference champion is in over Cincinnati from: ACC (Wake Forest), B1G (Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St), SEC (Georgia, Kentucky), XII (Oklahoma, Oklahoma St)
1-loss conference champion is in over Cincinnati from: B1G (above + Penn St), PAC (Arizona St, Oregon), SEC (above + Alabama, Mississippi), XII (above if lone loss is in Bedlam)

My guess would be the B1G and SEC are locks. The XII is third. The fourth spot is up for grabs between Cincinnati, Oregon, and a non-champion from the B1G or SEC.

I wouldn't say the Big 12 is a lock by any stretch of the imagination. Texas could easily win out and they control their own destiny for conference title, but 2 loss Texas wouldn't get in over undefeated Cincy. And 1 loss Oklahoma non champion doesn't get in over Cincy either IMO.

I didn’t say the XII was a lock.
The Big 12 is closer to that 4th spot than they are a lock. If Texas wins, they're not making the playoff. wouldn't even say a 1 loss Oklahoma/Oklahoma St/Baylor is a cinch at all.
10-12-2021 06:40 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 03:01 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:33 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Does ANYONE actually believe TPTB will allow Cincinnati to get into the playoff?! There’s NO WAY IN HELL A G5 is allowed a shot at a championship!

UC has about as much chance of a playoff as UConn has winning one game this year.

Well that’s pretty darn good!


Because UConn will beat Yale.
10-12-2021 07:28 PM
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JUSTGOPLAY Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 03:01 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:33 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Does ANYONE actually believe TPTB will allow Cincinnati to get into the playoff?! There’s NO WAY IN HELL A G5 is allowed a shot at a championship!

UC has about as much chance of a playoff as UConn has winning one game this year.

Take it easy on UGone fan..... Sure they went broke trying to field an FBS football program, and opted to slow walk that sucker back to D2. But, on the bright side they do get to play Nova and Providence home and home every year in basketball. Now that's the big time.
10-12-2021 07:36 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
I’m a UConn hoops fan. Grew up a Penn St football fan
10-12-2021 10:26 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 05:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 03:52 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:57 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Wake is the ONLY P5 they get in ahead of!

No

In a normal season, Cincy gets more respect than Wake because the W/L record of the Bearcats is generally a lot better.

If both teams are undefeated at the end the season, Wake's schedule is much tougher. Wake will need 6 P5 wins on the road (and 10 P5 wins overall). Cincy is getting the current buzz because they won 2 P5 games on the road (plus the game against the Domers got extra media attention)...Cincy's future opponents are in the AAC, which has much weaker programs than the ACC. It would not be a close call for the CFP committee.

Wake's chances of going undefeated may be small, but any undefeated P5 conference champ will easily beat any undefeated G5 champion.


The ACC is as weak as it has ever been.

Wake's toughest game is on the road against an unranked Clemson team.

Yes, the American is also weak. But when you're discussing "tallest midget," you have to include the nonconference schedule. And no one on Wake's schedule is anywhere near as good as Notre Dame this year. Wake's toughest opponent is more along the lines of SMU (who is Cincinnati's 2nd toughest opponent).

Cincy will have their best shot this year. I'll certainly be rooting for Cincy to get in.

**
Never underestimate Georgia's propensity to screw things up. There are two tough games in UK and Florida, they beat those two, they are in the CFP.

This is where it gets interesting for Georgia, this coming game against Kentucky will be Kentucky's super bowl because if Kentucky wins this game, UK can run the table and get into the SEC championship game. UK's remaining schedule is very easy. Georgia will be sitting their butts home during the SEC championship, If UK loses, will the committee take a team that sat home with one loss, loss to the loser of the SEC championship? I don't know, maybe, maybe not.

I'm going to laugh if UGA loses to UK. That'll be so typical lol.

As for the Big 10, I'm not confident in Iowa, is their schedule really that much better than Cincy's? They avoid Ohio State and Michigan. Will Penn State have a better record than Notre Dame at the end of the year? Will Michigan beat Ohio State? Lots of questions.
10-13-2021 12:11 AM
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JUSTGOPLAY Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-13-2021 12:11 AM)ShadyGrove Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 05:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 03:52 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:57 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Wake is the ONLY P5 they get in ahead of!

No

In a normal season, Cincy gets more respect than Wake because the W/L record of the Bearcats is generally a lot better.

If both teams are undefeated at the end the season, Wake's schedule is much tougher. Wake will need 6 P5 wins on the road (and 10 P5 wins overall). Cincy is getting the current buzz because they won 2 P5 games on the road (plus the game against the Domers got extra media attention)...Cincy's future opponents are in the AAC, which has much weaker programs than the ACC. It would not be a close call for the CFP committee.

Wake's chances of going undefeated may be small, but any undefeated P5 conference champ will easily beat any undefeated G5 champion.


The ACC is as weak as it has ever been.

Wake's toughest game is on the road against an unranked Clemson team.

Yes, the American is also weak. But when you're discussing "tallest midget," you have to include the nonconference schedule. And no one on Wake's schedule is anywhere near as good as Notre Dame this year. Wake's toughest opponent is more along the lines of SMU (who is Cincinnati's 2nd toughest opponent).

Cincy will have their best shot this year. I'll certainly be rooting for Cincy to get in.

**
Never underestimate Georgia's propensity to screw things up. There are two tough games in UK and Florida, they beat those two, they are in the CFP.

This is where it gets interesting for Georgia, this coming game against Kentucky will be Kentucky's super bowl because if Kentucky wins this game, UK can run the table and get into the SEC championship game. UK's remaining schedule is very easy. Georgia will be sitting their butts home during the SEC championship, If UK loses, will the committee take a team that sat home with one loss, loss to the loser of the SEC championship? I don't know, maybe, maybe not.

I'm going to laugh if UGA loses to UK. That'll be so typical lol.

As for the Big 10, I'm not confident in Iowa, is their schedule really that much better than Cincy's? They avoid Ohio State and Michigan. Will Penn State have a better record than Notre Dame at the end of the year? Will Michigan beat Ohio State? Lots of questions.

Outstanding post......Lots of football left to be played. If Cincinnati goes 13-0 and doesn't get in, well that would be a shame. Most Bearcat fans are aware that the current CFB Playoff is a made for television event, and not a true measure of who the best teams are. If the Bearcats go 13-1, 14-0 and Des Ridder gets to be on the stage come Heisman night we will still feel pretty good about the direction our program is headed, regardless of whether the selection committee thinks we are worthy.
10-13-2021 06:24 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 04:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 03:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 01:33 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Does ANYONE actually believe TPTB will allow Cincinnati to get into the playoff?! There’s NO WAY IN HELL A G5 is allowed a shot at a championship!

Sadly, I think Cincy has a very good chance of making the playoffs. If anything, I think the CFP would like to 'prove' that there is no bias against the G5, and so I think if any bias is involved it will be in their favor.

I say "sadly" because Cincy just does not play a playoff-worthy schedule. I mean, look at the teams Arkansas has had to face. They played Texas, then Texas AM, then Georgia, then Ole Miss. I mean, that's a murderers row - and they still have tp play Auburn and Alabama to boot!

Georgia just had a huge road game vs Auburn, and now they have to turn around and play #11 Kentucky.

IMO, it is crazy that a team that will play nobody but teams like ECU, SMU, Temple, Navy, USF, etc. can make the playoffs. It's just not a worthy schedule.

Georgia and Alabama with 2 losses probably get in ahead of Cincinnati. Big 10 champ with 1 loss. And that still leaves Oregon, Big 12 champ and a 1 loss ACC champ. They might even put Notre Dame ahead of them, especially if they can justify Notre Dame as #3 so they don't have to compare head to head (#4-#6 get compared in that manner).

I agree that's the way it should be, but my spidey-sense tells me that the CFP is going to view Cincy the way the polls currently do - as a top 4 team. And I don't see them dropping from that level unless an undefeated P5 champ emerges. I don't see how Notre Dame gets in *over* Cincy. ND can get in, if Cincy loses games and thus falls from contention entirely and they win out, but if it comes down to ND vs Cincy, Cincy gets in.

As for UGA and Alabama, I think they get in over Cincy with one loss, but not two. Nobody has ever made the playoffs with two losses, and I don't expect it happening this time either.
10-13-2021 08:03 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
The CFP could let in a G5... this time. And it will be ok because Cincy is moving to the Big 12 soon.

And next time the argument will be that the SEC will be stronger, the Big 12 gap over the AAC has increased and no G5 conference member will be worthy under the new alignment
10-13-2021 08:16 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 01:33 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Does ANYONE actually believe TPTB will allow Cincinnati to get into the playoff?! There’s NO WAY IN HELL A G5 is allowed a shot at a championship!

I believe it. Cincy is a G5 only in practice at the moment. There's human bias in the ranking and just knowing that Cincy is going to the B12 can help their ranking.

Also not to discredit them, they're undefeated and deserve the top 10.
10-13-2021 08:23 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 10:26 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  I’m a UConn hoops fan. Grew up a Penn St football fan

Are you that UConn fan/Barstool guy who went on air and said at the start of this season UC FB was overrated? The one who got invited to go on air by one of the Cincinnati ESPN Radio guys to articulate the reasons why UC is overrated, only to come up with “Mick Cronin is a jerk” and ours fans think too highly of themselves?
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2021 09:23 AM by CliftonAve.)
10-13-2021 08:30 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-12-2021 01:33 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Does ANYONE actually believe TPTB will allow Cincinnati to get into the playoff?! There’s NO WAY IN HELL A G5 is allowed a shot at a championship!

If they stay unbeaten they are in. Period. But one loss will certainly knock them out.
10-13-2021 09:32 AM
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