AAC and G5 Transformation – A Modest Proposal
With the recent and impending departures of AAC members, the conference should rethink its entire business model. Its G5 competitive advantage is its lucrative media deal, as well as the commitment of member institutions to invest more into college athletics. Unfortunately, the defections of Connecticut/Cincy/UCF/Houston prove that their members will always be at-risk for poaching. To profitably transform the business model, the AAC should consider offering invitations to all CUSA and Sun Belt members…then working with ESPN to design a media rights deal that improves payouts to all member institutions.
Olympic sports realignment is gradually transitioned to a geographic model that reduces administrative costs. Non-revenue sports travel costs are minimized, and two-thirds of conference administration costs can be eliminated. Proposed new geographic base conferences:
AAC West – Wichita State, Tulsa, Tulane, Louisiana, La Monroe, La Tech, SMU, Rice, North Texas, Texas St, UTSA and UTEP. To maintain NCAA conference rights, Memphis and Temple continue to play men’s basketball schedule in this grouping for a few extra years…the AAC West is the rebranded legacy AAC.
AAC South – USF, Memphis, WKU, MTSU, So Miss, Ark State, UAB, Troy, South Ala, FIU and FAU. Six CUSA are already in this grouping…so for NCAA purposes this is the rebranded CUSA.
AAC East – ECU, Temple, Ga Southern, Ga State, Coastal Carolina, App State, Charlotte, Marshall, ODU, Liberty and UMass. To maintain NCAA conference rights, Troy and South Alabama continue to play men’s basketball schedule in this grouping for a few extra years…the AAC East is the rebranded Sun Belt.
To enhance basketball SOS and gain ESPN payouts, cross-geographic competition is required for higher seeded programs (e.g., Wichita State-WKU-Charlotte, etc.).
Football realignment is fluid. The legacy AAC schools are all grandfathered into the “premier” level and gradually transitioned into a British-style relegation model. ESPN would need to pay more for this “premier” level because relegation & promotion ensures reliably strong content. Media payouts for the “premier” level would be at least 2x the other divisions. After a 3-to-5-year transition period, legacy AAC schools are eligible for relegation. Annually, two schools are relegated (and two are promoted). A metric (such as the Massey Composite Index) is used to determine promotion and relegation. Based on the final 2020 Massey Index ranking, the football-only alignment:
AAC Premier Football, East Division – Memphis, USF, ECU, Temple, App State and Coastal Carolina; West Division – Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Louisiana and UAB
AAC Coast Football – Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Ga State, Ga Southern, South Alabama, UMass and Liberty
AAC Gulf Football – UTEP, UTSA, Rice, Texas State, North Texas, Louisiana Monroe, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Ark State, MTSU and WKU
The Faustian deal that the AAC is making with ESPN: Guarantee better football content for potential football relegation…even though relegation is years into the future. The AAC is mitigating against the loss of football brands such as UCF, Cincy and Houston (even the basketball brand such as Connecticut). The elite AAC schools should have the resources to stay in the “premier” level. ESPN gets a G5 conference with a much higher overall level of play. The premier division would also be the annual favorite for getting the G5 conference champion into the NY6/CFP. CUSA and Sun Belt get geographically compact conferences at comparable payouts, with the potential for their champions to be promoted into a higher paying football conference.
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