(09-29-2021 08:00 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (09-29-2021 06:49 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: I’ve said it elsewhere. It’s too much too fast. I’m shocked it could have changed before the end of the contract. It won’t. It will run its course.
It’s not just the conferences who weren’t in the room that would pump the brakes on this. The bowls had to respond accordingly, too. And for the ones that have good relationships with some of these conferences, there would be more wagon-circling.
I'll be the optimist here (as someone that unabashedly wants to see this expanded playoff happen): I think it will get done and passed before the end of the year. Even two extra years of increased money in the bag playoff revenue is too much to pass up for everyone here. Schools are really going to pass that up when they're moving around in conference realignment at the G5 levels for increased money that's honestly going to be a fraction of what they'll get from an expanded playoff where the 99% of the teams won't even be participating in? Schools are really going to pass that up when even the SEC had to advance money to its members against future projected revenue in order to cover pandemic-related losses? This entire forum is effectively dedicated to how colleges and conferences can maximize revenue, yet they're really going to pass up on the easiest revenue-maker of them all?
It can't be overstated how this is possibly the easiest revenue generator in modern sports history. It's akin to the American League and National League figuring out that they could play the World Series or the old AFL and NFL figuring out that they could play a Super Bowl... only it's taken college football until 2021 to get to that point. I refuse to believe that the powers that be can't figure this out when push comes to shove with this much money on the table.
Presumably, if there is a deal that begins in two years, it would have to be an ESPN deal. I know some have talked about an interim two year deal with ESPN, but I just don't see that happening. So if we assume a long term expanded playoff ESPN deal would be less than a deal that goes to open market, then it's kind of like your Social Security benefits - do you retire early at age 62 for $1000 a month for life, or do you wait until age 67 and get $1400 a month for life? Is the value of getting that $400 extra a month for life from 67 on worth missing the $60,000 in checks you forego between ages 62 and 67?
It's not necessarily the case that one option is better than the other, it has to be kind of forecast out. And with Social Security at least, you know what the greater amount is at 67. With the expanded playoffs, if you pass up the two extra years of greater revenue, you don't really know what your are losing had you waited two years and then gone to the open market. You can have consultants make estimates, but nobody knows for sure.
Of course, there are other considerations too. With SS, you wonder if you are going to live long enough past age 67 to recoup the foregone income from retiring early. Or you worry you will live long enough such that retiring at 62 means you gave up way too much in later benefits. You might think about health too - maybe money at 63 is more valuable to you then money at 73, because at 63 you have better health and can enjoy it more.
With the CFP, for some conferences it might be a decision that is only about straight cash - assuming a new expanded playoff deal will be for 12 years beyond the current CFP, do we make more by getting a bit less for 14 years rather than a bit more for 12 years? But for other conferences, it might be about power - they might be willing to trade off a few dollars (probably not all that many, LOL) to not have ESPN have a "stranglehold" on the playoffs, or whatever.
It's a pickle, IMO. So I am not sure it will be worked out in the next four months.