(09-19-2021 08:11 PM)Florida tribe fan Wrote: (09-19-2021 02:40 PM)82hawk Wrote: [quote='geezerhawkdad' pid='17654883' dateline='1632065785']
The SoCon may expand, but don't look for CofC to join anytime soon. There were bad feelings between the conference and school when they broke up. CofC said some nasty things about the conference.
The Southern stumbled upon a 10 member conference when they had the mass defections in the mid-'10s. 9 is the best number for football because every football member can play every other member annually and everyone has 4 conference home games. The number works well for basketball because everyone plays everyone else twice. If UNCG ever left, they'd be replaced by another non-football school.
A smaller conference means a larger NCAA basketball tournament share for each team.
Elon moved to the CAA because much of their student body comes from the mid-atlantic. If JMU exits the CAA, Elon will move up in the standings and have a better chance of making the playoffs.
One argument in favor of Elon and CofC returning to the SoCon is the conference's history. Schools that leave or are kicked out tend to return. VMI, ETSU, and Davidson left and returned.
The NCAA shares from tournament appearances doesn't change drastically with two more schools. The possibility for multiple NCAA bids outweighs that cost. Adding two schools that aren't just basketball only, but committed to and capable of success in basketball, certainly has a greater upside than downside for the SoCon. The addition of UNCW and CofC would also increase attendance across the board with rivalries in the Carolinas from pretty big schools with pretty large alumni bases.
UNCG is by far the biggest school in the conference with just at 20,000 students. Five of the ten schools have less than 6,000 students.
UNCW - right at 18,000 and growing dramatically.
CofC - 9,300
UNCW would be the second biggest school in the conference and closing in on UNCG, and CofC would be the fifth largest in the conference. And most importantly, both of those schools would make basketball much stronger.
With all the expanding and movement in conferences, UNCW and CofC represent good schools in the footprint of the conference, which represents a better chance for long term stability. If UNCW gets in a conference with UNCG, WCU and CofC, there is really no reason to move in the future. We could likely add FCS football if we like. Then our only other reason to move out of the SoCon is if we went FBS.
It's really a win/win for the conference and UNCW and Cofc.
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Why would the small enrollment schools funding FCS football in a one bid basketball conference want to add larger enrollment schools to their conference that aren’t funding FCS football? Seems like they’d be putting their basketball programs at a perpetual resource disadvantage.
It's the chicken and the egg. The SoCon is historically a one bid conference, and the smaller resource schools aren't usually the ones going to the Big Dance. If football is their primary goal, then they are hoping upon hope they get lucky every once in a while and win the conference tournament, but the fact is they haven't. Sorry, but VMI and The Citadel are not going to win the SoCon tournament or bring an at-large bid. Honestly, the SoCon would be better off if those two school played basketball in a different conference.
In the last 21 years, here are the schools that won the tournament and went to the Big Dance. The SoCon hasn't had an at-large bid in at least 21 years.
Davidson - 6
Wofford - 5
ETSU - 4
UNCG - 3
Chattanooga - 3
Wofford had most of their success since Davidson left, but no other schools have emerged and their coach left. UNCG lost their coach as well. This means that 6 of the 10 schools in the SoCon haven't been to the NCAA tournament in 21 years. So the money they get from NCAA shares is a small piece of the pie, earned by other schools.
An NCAA share was worth about $279,000 in 2020. If that were distributed equally in the SoCon, that would be $27,900 per school, per year for six years. With 10 schools, adding 2 schools would lower that to $23,250 per school. But NCAA shares aren't distributed equally in the SoCon, so that figure is even less for those who haven't gone to the tournament. Wofford did win their opening round game, so that figure is doubled for six years. Still not significant.
The key to ANY conference seeing a significant amount of revenue from NCAA tournament appearances, is for your conference to have multiple bids on a regular basis. And those multiple bids also make the odds of winning opening round games, or more, much more likely and getting even more shares.
The CAA actually had several years of multiple bids AND multiple wins in the NCAA tournament. The SoCon just lost their two best coaches this past year and they never got at-large bids in the NCAA. UNCG has the capability for continued success due to their size and location, but Wofford doesn't.
UNCW and CofC give the SoCon a much better chance of doubling the NCAA shares, and moving the conference to multiple bids on a somewhat regular basis What you are discussing is a conference fighting over wins they haven't gotten and aren't getting.
BUT, I could seriously picture UNCW agreeing to add football to gain entrance, and this discussion would be moot. I doubt CofC would add football, so I could see UNCW and Elon back in the SoCon, or maybe UNCW and William and Mary.
