Welcome to the 12th iteration of what began in 2009 as the "BCS Conference Comparison", my own method for ranking the major conferences. I didn't do the comparison in 2020 because of the lack of OOC games, so it feels good to be back! PS - I forgot how to format a table, so if anyone knows the code, please let me know.

This week includes the cumulative results of the season up through September 11. We see the SEC at #1, whereas the PAC and ACC are off to terrible starts at the bottom, thanks to multiple bad losses. The B12 is firmly in third place.

CONFERENCE.............WINS.......................LOSSES..........SEASON RECORD

1) SEC ............ A*,G#,O,G,TX,AR*,MS ...... L,V#,T ..............9-4 (.692)

2) B1G ................... T,P,I#,R,M ................. O,IL,IL* .......... 6-3.5 (.631)

3) B12.....................T,KS,TC .....................W,K,I,T............ 3-4 (.428)

4) ACC ................... M,V,P ..............S,D*,M,C,G*,F,L,NS,F# .. 3-11 (.214)

5) PAC ....................U*,O# ..............W#,S,OS,C*,A,WS* ...3.5-13.5 (.205)
........................................................ CO,U,C,W,A*


# .... 2 win or loss credit for super win or terrible loss
* ..... 1.5 win or loss credit for good win or bad loss


METHOD

1) Only OOC games count.

2) Notre Dame is always regarded as an A5 opponent, including for ACC teams. BYU, Army and other FBS independents are regarded as G5 opponents excepted as noted below.

3) All references to "rankings" are to at the time the game was played.

4) How losses are assessed:

a) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any A5 OOC opponent.

b) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any FCS or G5 opponent that is ranked in the Coaches or AP poll, including "others receiving votes" if they are receiving votes in both polls.

c) A conference is docked 1.5 losses for losing to any unranked G5 opponent. This is a penalty for a "bad loss".

d) A conference is docked 2 losses for losing to any unranked FCS opponent, a penalty for an "awful loss".


5) How wins are earned:

a) A conference is credited with 1 win for any win against an unranked A5 OOC opponent - an opponent not ranked in the top 25 of either major poll.

b) A conference gets credit for 1 win against an FCS or G5 opponent if the FCS or G5 opponent is in the "others receiving votes" of the AP and Coaches polls.

c) A conference earns 1.5 wins for beating any OOC team ranked between 11-25 in the AP or Coaches top 25. This is a bonus for a "quality win".

d) A conference earns 2 wins if the win is against any team ranked in the top 10 in either poll. This is a bonus for a "super" win.

6) Wins against unranked FCS or G5 earn no credit.

7) For bowl season, the following modifications apply:

- Rankings of bowl game opponents are based on CFP rankings only, save for rules that refer to "others receiving votes" above. For bowl games pitting A5 vs G5, all win and loss credit is earned according to rules 4b-c and 5c-d and 6 above, with CFP substituted for AP/Coaches. So for example, beating a CFP unranked G5 team still earns no credit for the A5 conference, but losing to an unranked G5 in a bowl game does mean it suffers the "bad" loss penalty. But, if the G5 bowl opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of either the AP or Coaches poll, the P5 conference would get credit for 1 win (if they win the bowl game) or just 1 loss (if they lose the bowl game).

One thing I think these rankings show is how the media presents things. Namely, it tends to focus on what happens at the top. For example, the media seems to be presenting a kind of "PAC is Back" narrative right now, because the PAC has won a couple of high-profile games (UCLA > LSU, Oregon > Ohio State).

These high-profile wins are masking what is IMO a terrible start for the PAC, just really bad so far. Which is the opposite of how things have been for the PAC the last few years - the PAC has been a good Power football league the last few years, but a lack of a playoff team at the top has hurt its perception.

In my rankings, all games count. Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt counts, not just LSU vs UCLA.

(09-13-2021 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  One thing I think these rankings show is how the media presents things. Namely, it tends to focus on what happens at the top. For example, the media seems to be presenting a kind of "PAC is Back" narrative right now, because the PAC has won a couple of high-profile games (UCLA > LSU, Oregon > Ohio State).

These high-profile wins are masking what is IMO a terrible start for the PAC, just really bad so far. Which is the opposite of how things have been for the PAC the last few years - the PAC has been a good Power football league the last few years, but a lack of a playoff team at the top has hurt its perception.

In my rankings, all games count. Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt counts, not just LSU vs UCLA.

Blame the Playoff system. If the season ended today, the "#1" B1G would be sitting on the couch (or in Pasadena) while the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 would make it. Nobody would care if Purdue beat Oregon State or if Montana beat Washington, they care if Oregon beat Ohio State. There's a pretty good chance that game either puts Oregon into the Playoff or keeps Ohio State out (maybe even both). What difference will Purdue beating Oregon State mean in the grand scheme of things?

(09-13-2021 07:35 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  One thing I think these rankings show is how the media presents things. Namely, it tends to focus on what happens at the top. For example, the media seems to be presenting a kind of "PAC is Back" narrative right now, because the PAC has won a couple of high-profile games (UCLA > LSU, Oregon > Ohio State).

These high-profile wins are masking what is IMO a terrible start for the PAC, just really bad so far. Which is the opposite of how things have been for the PAC the last few years - the PAC has been a good Power football league the last few years, but a lack of a playoff team at the top has hurt its perception.

In my rankings, all games count. Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt counts, not just LSU vs UCLA.

Blame the Playoff system. If the season ended today, the "#1" B1G would be sitting on the couch (or in Pasadena) while the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 would make it. Nobody would care if Purdue beat Oregon State or if Montana beat Washington, they care if Oregon beat Ohio State. There's a pretty good chance that game either puts Oregon into the Playoff or keeps Ohio State out (maybe even both). What difference will Purdue beating Oregon State mean in the grand scheme of things?

Well not much from a CFP perspective. But IMO, when ranking conferences, that's not the only thing that should matter.

(09-14-2021 08:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 07:35 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  One thing I think these rankings show is how the media presents things. Namely, it tends to focus on what happens at the top. For example, the media seems to be presenting a kind of "PAC is Back" narrative right now, because the PAC has won a couple of high-profile games (UCLA > LSU, Oregon > Ohio State).

These high-profile wins are masking what is IMO a terrible start for the PAC, just really bad so far. Which is the opposite of how things have been for the PAC the last few years - the PAC has been a good Power football league the last few years, but a lack of a playoff team at the top has hurt its perception.

In my rankings, all games count. Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt counts, not just LSU vs UCLA.

Blame the Playoff system. If the season ended today, the "#1" B1G would be sitting on the couch (or in Pasadena) while the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 would make it. Nobody would care if Purdue beat Oregon State or if Montana beat Washington, they care if Oregon beat Ohio State. There's a pretty good chance that game either puts Oregon into the Playoff or keeps Ohio State out (maybe even both). What difference will Purdue beating Oregon State mean in the grand scheme of things?

Well not much from a CFP perspective. But IMO, when ranking conferences, that's not the only thing that should matter.

I don't think how good your worst teams are matters much at all though in things even not CFP. How good a conference is to me is measured in how good the teams in the top and middle are. Not how your worst team is. Goes for football and it goes for basketball.

(09-14-2021 09:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 08:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 07:35 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  One thing I think these rankings show is how the media presents things. Namely, it tends to focus on what happens at the top. For example, the media seems to be presenting a kind of "PAC is Back" narrative right now, because the PAC has won a couple of high-profile games (UCLA > LSU, Oregon > Ohio State).

These high-profile wins are masking what is IMO a terrible start for the PAC, just really bad so far. Which is the opposite of how things have been for the PAC the last few years - the PAC has been a good Power football league the last few years, but a lack of a playoff team at the top has hurt its perception.

In my rankings, all games count. Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt counts, not just LSU vs UCLA.

Blame the Playoff system. If the season ended today, the "#1" B1G would be sitting on the couch (or in Pasadena) while the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 would make it. Nobody would care if Purdue beat Oregon State or if Montana beat Washington, they care if Oregon beat Ohio State. There's a pretty good chance that game either puts Oregon into the Playoff or keeps Ohio State out (maybe even both). What difference will Purdue beating Oregon State mean in the grand scheme of things?

Well not much from a CFP perspective. But IMO, when ranking conferences, that's not the only thing that should matter.

I don't think how good your worst teams are matters much at all though in things even not CFP. How good a conference is to me is measured in how good the teams in the top and middle are. Not how your worst team is. Goes for football and it goes for basketball.

The basketball tournament has more than 4 teams so more non conference games matter.

(09-14-2021 09:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 08:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 07:35 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  One thing I think these rankings show is how the media presents things. Namely, it tends to focus on what happens at the top. For example, the media seems to be presenting a kind of "PAC is Back" narrative right now, because the PAC has won a couple of high-profile games (UCLA > LSU, Oregon > Ohio State).

These high-profile wins are masking what is IMO a terrible start for the PAC, just really bad so far. Which is the opposite of how things have been for the PAC the last few years - the PAC has been a good Power football league the last few years, but a lack of a playoff team at the top has hurt its perception.

In my rankings, all games count. Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt counts, not just LSU vs UCLA.

Blame the Playoff system. If the season ended today, the "#1" B1G would be sitting on the couch (or in Pasadena) while the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 would make it. Nobody would care if Purdue beat Oregon State or if Montana beat Washington, they care if Oregon beat Ohio State. There's a pretty good chance that game either puts Oregon into the Playoff or keeps Ohio State out (maybe even both). What difference will Purdue beating Oregon State mean in the grand scheme of things?

Well not much from a CFP perspective. But IMO, when ranking conferences, that's not the only thing that should matter.

I don't think how good your worst teams are matters much at all though in things even not CFP. How good a conference is to me is measured in how good the teams in the top and middle are. Not how your worst team is. Goes for football and it goes for basketball.

With that in mind, I ranked the P5 conferences (as they will be configured once the SEC and Big 12 moves are completed) based on the ten year average Sagarin power rating. The first number is the average of the top 60% of the teams in each conference (rounding all fractions up to the next whole number). The second number is the rating for all the schools in each conference, and the third is how much the conference average improves by excluding its bottom 40%.



SEC 85.6....81.1....4.5
B1G 80.9....75.5...5.4
PAC 80.5....77.0....3.5
B12 78.4....75.0....3.4
ACC 78.1....74.9....3.2

Clearly, the B1G benefits the most by being judged only by its better teams. I was a little surprised that the SEC was a strong second, far ahead of the third place PAC. Very little separates the three weaker A5 conferences by this measure.

(09-13-2021 08:21 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Welcome to the 12th iteration of what began in 2009 as the "BCS Conference Comparison", my own method for ranking the major conferences. I didn't do the comparison in 2020 because of the lack of OOC games, so it feels good to be back! PS - I forgot how to format a table, so if anyone knows the code, please let me know.

This week includes the cumulative results of the season up through September 11. We see that the rankings are very close at the top and bottom, with the B1G is at #1, slightly ahead of the SEC, whereas the PAC and ACC are off to terrible starts at the bottom, thanks to multiple bad losses. The B12 is firmly in third place.

CONFERENCE.............WINS.......................LOSSES..........SEASON RECORD

1) B1G ................... T,P,I#,R,M ................. O,IL ............... 6-2 (.750)

2) SEC ............ A*,G#,O,G,TX,AR*,MS ...... L,V*,T ..............9-3.5 (.720)

3) B12.....................T,KS,TC .....................W,K,I,T............ 3-4 (.428)

4) ACC ................... M,V,P ..............S,D*,M,C,G*,F,L,NS,F# .. 3-11 (.214)

5) PAC ....................U*,O# ..............W#,S,OS,C*,A,WS* ...3.5-13.5 (.205)
........................................................ CO,U,C,W,A*


# .... 2 win or loss credit for super win or terrible loss
* ..... 1.5 win or loss credit for good win or bad loss


METHOD

1) Only OOC games count.

2) Notre Dame is always regarded as an A5 opponent, including for ACC teams. BYU, Army and other FBS independents are regarded as G5 opponents excepted as noted below.

3) All references to "rankings" are to at the time the game was played.

4) How losses are assessed:

a) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any A5 OOC opponent.

b) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any FCS or G5 opponent that is ranked in the Coaches or AP poll, including "others receiving votes" if they are receiving votes in both polls.

c) A conference is docked 1.5 losses for losing to any unranked G5 opponent. This is a penalty for a "bad loss".

d) A conference is docked 2 losses for losing to any unranked FCS opponent, a penalty for an "awful loss".


5) How wins are earned:

a) A conference is credited with 1 win for any win against an unranked A5 OOC opponent - an opponent not ranked in the top 25 of either major poll.

b) A conference gets credit for 1 win against an FCS or G5 opponent if the FCS or G5 opponent is in the "others receiving votes" of the AP and Coaches polls.

c) A conference earns 1.5 wins for beating any OOC team ranked between 11-25 in the AP or Coaches top 25. This is a bonus for a "quality win".

d) A conference earns 2 wins if the win is against any team ranked in the top 10 in either poll. This is a bonus for a "super" win.

6) Wins against unranked FCS or G5 earn no credit.

7) For bowl season, the following modifications apply:

- Rankings of bowl game opponents are based on CFP rankings only, save for rules that refer to "others receiving votes" above. For bowl games pitting A5 vs G5, all win and loss credit is earned according to rules 4b-c and 5c-d and 6 above, with CFP substituted for AP/Coaches. So for example, beating a CFP unranked G5 team still earns no credit for the A5 conference, but losing to an unranked G5 in a bowl game does mean it suffers the "bad" loss penalty. But, if the G5 bowl opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of either the AP or Coaches poll, the P5 conference would get credit for 1 win (if they win the bowl game) or just 1 loss (if they lose the bowl game).

Quo you miscalculated the Big 10. Illinois had a bad loss to UTSA: 1.5 , and a loss to Virginia: 1.0, and Ohio State lost to Oregon: 1.0.

That's 3.5 losses by your scale, not 2.

So, the SEC and B1G are tied for the lead with both at .720.

(09-14-2021 02:10 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:21 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Welcome to the 12th iteration of what began in 2009 as the "BCS Conference Comparison", my own method for ranking the major conferences. I didn't do the comparison in 2020 because of the lack of OOC games, so it feels good to be back! PS - I forgot how to format a table, so if anyone knows the code, please let me know.

This week includes the cumulative results of the season up through September 11. We see that the rankings are very close at the top and bottom, with the B1G is at #1, slightly ahead of the SEC, whereas the PAC and ACC are off to terrible starts at the bottom, thanks to multiple bad losses. The B12 is firmly in third place.

CONFERENCE.............WINS.......................LOSSES..........SEASON RECORD

1) B1G ................... T,P,I#,R,M ................. O,IL ............... 6-2 (.750)

2) SEC ............ A*,G#,O,G,TX,AR*,MS ...... L,V*,T ..............9-3.5 (.720)

3) B12.....................T,KS,TC .....................W,K,I,T............ 3-4 (.428)

4) ACC ................... M,V,P ..............S,D*,M,C,G*,F,L,NS,F# .. 3-11 (.214)

5) PAC ....................U*,O# ..............W#,S,OS,C*,A,WS* ...3.5-13.5 (.205)
........................................................ CO,U,C,W,A*


# .... 2 win or loss credit for super win or terrible loss
* ..... 1.5 win or loss credit for good win or bad loss


METHOD

1) Only OOC games count.

2) Notre Dame is always regarded as an A5 opponent, including for ACC teams. BYU, Army and other FBS independents are regarded as G5 opponents excepted as noted below.

3) All references to "rankings" are to at the time the game was played.

4) How losses are assessed:

a) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any A5 OOC opponent.

b) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any FCS or G5 opponent that is ranked in the Coaches or AP poll, including "others receiving votes" if they are receiving votes in both polls.

c) A conference is docked 1.5 losses for losing to any unranked G5 opponent. This is a penalty for a "bad loss".

d) A conference is docked 2 losses for losing to any unranked FCS opponent, a penalty for an "awful loss".


5) How wins are earned:

a) A conference is credited with 1 win for any win against an unranked A5 OOC opponent - an opponent not ranked in the top 25 of either major poll.

b) A conference gets credit for 1 win against an FCS or G5 opponent if the FCS or G5 opponent is in the "others receiving votes" of the AP and Coaches polls.

c) A conference earns 1.5 wins for beating any OOC team ranked between 11-25 in the AP or Coaches top 25. This is a bonus for a "quality win".

d) A conference earns 2 wins if the win is against any team ranked in the top 10 in either poll. This is a bonus for a "super" win.

6) Wins against unranked FCS or G5 earn no credit.

7) For bowl season, the following modifications apply:

- Rankings of bowl game opponents are based on CFP rankings only, save for rules that refer to "others receiving votes" above. For bowl games pitting A5 vs G5, all win and loss credit is earned according to rules 4b-c and 5c-d and 6 above, with CFP substituted for AP/Coaches. So for example, beating a CFP unranked G5 team still earns no credit for the A5 conference, but losing to an unranked G5 in a bowl game does mean it suffers the "bad" loss penalty. But, if the G5 bowl opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of either the AP or Coaches poll, the P5 conference would get credit for 1 win (if they win the bowl game) or just 1 loss (if they lose the bowl game).

Quo you miscalculated the Big 10. Illinois had a bad loss to UTSA: 1.5 , and a loss to Virginia: 1.0, and Ohio State lost to Oregon: 1.0.

That's 3.5 losses by your scale, not 2.

So, the SEC and B1G are tied for the lead with both at .720.

actually would take them down to 6-3.5 and would be .631.

(09-14-2021 02:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 02:10 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:21 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Welcome to the 12th iteration of what began in 2009 as the "BCS Conference Comparison", my own method for ranking the major conferences. I didn't do the comparison in 2020 because of the lack of OOC games, so it feels good to be back! PS - I forgot how to format a table, so if anyone knows the code, please let me know.

This week includes the cumulative results of the season up through September 11. We see that the rankings are very close at the top and bottom, with the B1G is at #1, slightly ahead of the SEC, whereas the PAC and ACC are off to terrible starts at the bottom, thanks to multiple bad losses. The B12 is firmly in third place.

CONFERENCE.............WINS.......................LOSSES..........SEASON RECORD

1) B1G ................... T,P,I#,R,M ................. O,IL ............... 6-2 (.750)

2) SEC ............ A*,G#,O,G,TX,AR*,MS ...... L,V*,T ..............9-3.5 (.720)

3) B12.....................T,KS,TC .....................W,K,I,T............ 3-4 (.428)

4) ACC ................... M,V,P ..............S,D*,M,C,G*,F,L,NS,F# .. 3-11 (.214)

5) PAC ....................U*,O# ..............W#,S,OS,C*,A,WS* ...3.5-13.5 (.205)
........................................................ CO,U,C,W,A*


# .... 2 win or loss credit for super win or terrible loss
* ..... 1.5 win or loss credit for good win or bad loss


METHOD

1) Only OOC games count.

2) Notre Dame is always regarded as an A5 opponent, including for ACC teams. BYU, Army and other FBS independents are regarded as G5 opponents excepted as noted below.

3) All references to "rankings" are to at the time the game was played.

4) How losses are assessed:

a) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any A5 OOC opponent.

b) A conference is docked 1 loss for losing to any FCS or G5 opponent that is ranked in the Coaches or AP poll, including "others receiving votes" if they are receiving votes in both polls.

c) A conference is docked 1.5 losses for losing to any unranked G5 opponent. This is a penalty for a "bad loss".

d) A conference is docked 2 losses for losing to any unranked FCS opponent, a penalty for an "awful loss".


5) How wins are earned:

a) A conference is credited with 1 win for any win against an unranked A5 OOC opponent - an opponent not ranked in the top 25 of either major poll.

b) A conference gets credit for 1 win against an FCS or G5 opponent if the FCS or G5 opponent is in the "others receiving votes" of the AP and Coaches polls.

c) A conference earns 1.5 wins for beating any OOC team ranked between 11-25 in the AP or Coaches top 25. This is a bonus for a "quality win".

d) A conference earns 2 wins if the win is against any team ranked in the top 10 in either poll. This is a bonus for a "super" win.

6) Wins against unranked FCS or G5 earn no credit.

7) For bowl season, the following modifications apply:

- Rankings of bowl game opponents are based on CFP rankings only, save for rules that refer to "others receiving votes" above. For bowl games pitting A5 vs G5, all win and loss credit is earned according to rules 4b-c and 5c-d and 6 above, with CFP substituted for AP/Coaches. So for example, beating a CFP unranked G5 team still earns no credit for the A5 conference, but losing to an unranked G5 in a bowl game does mean it suffers the "bad" loss penalty. But, if the G5 bowl opponent is ranked in the "others receiving votes" of either the AP or Coaches poll, the P5 conference would get credit for 1 win (if they win the bowl game) or just 1 loss (if they lose the bowl game).

Quo you miscalculated the Big 10. Illinois had a bad loss to UTSA: 1.5 , and a loss to Virginia: 1.0, and Ohio State lost to Oregon: 1.0.

That's 3.5 losses by your scale, not 2.

So, the SEC and B1G are tied for the lead with both at .720.

actually would take them down to 6-3.5 and would be .631.

You are correct Stever, I didn't recalculate against totals. I just looked at 2 losses and realized that Illinois had 2, one against UTSA, and Ohio State had 1 and knew we weren't looking at just 2.

Thank you JR and Stever - you guys are correct, I just missed the Illinois loss to UTSA on opening week.

I have corrected the original post to reflect the accurate standings.

Quo with an impressive effort. I plan to peruse this a bit more closely tonight as I feast on a tasty Indian meal and quaff a quality micro-beer — with the solo piano music of Richard Clayderman creating a soothing background ambiance.

(09-14-2021 03:20 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Quo with an impressive effort. I plan to peruse this a bit more closely tonight as I feast on a leftover Indian meal and quaff a quality micro-beer — with the music of Richard Clayderman creating a nice background ambiance.

Bill, if you notice any errors, or have comments or questions about the method, I'd love to hear them!

(09-14-2021 03:20 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Quo with an impressive effort. I plan to peruse this a bit more closely tonight as I feast on a tasty Indian meal and quaff a quality micro-beer — with the solo piano music of Richard Clayderman creating a soothing background ambiance.

Is it an Indian meal or an Indinian meal?

so just looking at it- a gigantic week for Big Ten coming up-
Indinia (or however they spell it) vs Cincy- super game
Michigan St @ Miami- ranked game
Minnesota @ Colorado
Nebraska @ Oklahoma- super game
Northwestern @ Duke
Penn St vs Auburn- ranked game
Purdue @ Notre Dame- super game

so Big Ten has a real shot this week. But man they have some really tough opponents.

(09-14-2021 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so just looking at it- a gigantic week for Big Ten coming up-
Indinia (or however they spell it) vs Cincy- super game
Michigan St @ Miami- ranked game
Minnesota @ Colorado
Nebraska @ Oklahoma- super game
Northwestern @ Duke
Penn St vs Auburn- ranked game
Purdue @ Notre Dame- super game

so Big Ten has a real shot this week. But man they have some really tough opponents.

Let's face it - for my rankings, the "action weeks" tend to be at the start and end of the season. Because that's when OOC games are played. After the first 3-4 weeks, the conferences settle in to conference schedules and little OOC action happens - until the end of the season when of course there are the bowl and playoff games. By my count, the B1G only has 9.5 worth of "countable" games. That's a couple more than the 4-school smaller Big 12, but much less than the PAC, SEC and ACC. So it figures they still have some big matchups left.

And as you note, they have some huge chances to rack up wins - or losses. It will be huge for them.

The SEC, on the other hand, has a dangerous week, in that it is basically all downside and little upside. They play a lot of OOC games this week, but all vs G5, where you can't earn any wins but where every game is an opportunity to get tagged with a loss. The one exception being Auburn vs #10 Penn State, which is a "super win" chance, but of course also a likely loss.

IMO, the methodology makes sense. Until conferences get over 20 total points, the percentages are probably speculative. Nevertheless, the storylines are being solidified…the ACC and PAC have had horrible starts.

(09-14-2021 03:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so just looking at it- a gigantic week for Big Ten coming up-
Indinia (or however they spell it) vs Cincy- super game
Michigan St @ Miami- ranked game
Minnesota @ Colorado
Nebraska @ Oklahoma- super game
Northwestern @ Duke
Penn St vs Auburn- ranked game
Purdue @ Notre Dame- super game

so Big Ten has a real shot this week. But man they have some really tough opponents.

Let's face it - for my rankings, the "action weeks" tend to be at the start and end of the season. Because that's when OOC games are played. After the first 3-4 weeks, the conferences settle in to conference schedules and little OOC action happens - until the end of the season when of course there are the bowl and playoff games. By my count, the B1G only has 9.5 worth of "countable" games. That's a couple more than the 4-school smaller Big 12, but much less than the PAC, SEC and ACC. So it figures they still have some big matchups left.

And as you note, they have some huge chances to rack up wins - or losses. It will be huge for them.

The SEC, on the other hand, has a dangerous week, in that it is basically all downside and little upside. They play a lot of OOC games this week, but all vs G5, where you can't earn any wins but where every game is an opportunity to get tagged with a loss. The one exception being Auburn vs #10 Penn State, which is a "super win" chance, but of course also a likely loss.

I'll take Auburn in the board pick'em contest, but I'd never bet on this game! Auburn has looked solid but in defeating two cupcake supremes with cool whip and a cherry on top. So nobody has a clue if this team is great, average, or stinks. Likewise the B1G 10 top hasn't looked too strong either. So what does Penn State have to merit their ranking but their name? We have two unknowns playing and Auburn gets + 6.5 which PSU gets for playing at home and at night.

So win or lose I'm afraid this doesn't tell us much about either. Conference play will show where a school is relative to the conference members. But here, one could blow out the other, or they could play into overtime, and when the game is over you still would not have a clue as to whether the winner was any good, or not. We'll only know which is worse than the other.

What's interesting about quo's system and stever's separate Sagarin comparison is that the Big 12, even with its new members, ranks well within the Top 5 and as high as 3rd in this (admittedly early) season. And, if you add in BYU's W over Utah, it's even better in quo's system than without them. Given that the author of the system has been adamant about the Big 12 losing its power status in thread after thread for weeks now, his own system doesn't prove that; it disproves it. It's an admirable effort though.

(09-14-2021 03:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-14-2021 03:20 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Quo with an impressive effort. I plan to peruse this a bit more closely tonight as I feast on a leftover Indian meal and quaff a quality micro-beer — with the music of Richard Clayderman creating a nice background ambiance.

Bill, if you notice any errors, or have comments or questions about the method, I'd love to hear them!

I know you have to be consistent and deduct 1.5 for all negative losses. But the Vanderbilt loss to East Tennessee State ... negative 100.5.

I like your system. Makes sense for even a math-clueless man such as myself.