RE: Conference USA Roundtable: Expansion Candidates and Targets
The Athletic is worth the subscription. There are also great deals to get it really cheap for the 1st year. There is a ton of meat in this article.
The highlights:
What’s next for the American?
What factors will be most important? Expansion isn’t a decision made by athletic directors. It’s made by presidents. And what matters to them could be more than just football success. When UConn left the league in 2020, Aresco said the AAC only wanted a replacement if it could increase the media rights deal with ESPN, which pays around $6 million but will certainly decrease soon with the three most popular schools on their way out. It’s not clear if any schools out there can actually increase that amount.
One AD noted presidents like seeing larger athletic budgets from candidates. Most schools in the AAC are in the $40-60 million range and pay their football coach well over $1 million. Can a school pay for what it costs to be successful in the AAC? For example, while East Carolina has a budget in the $50 million range, it’s behind much of the AAC in facilities and other factors, and the Pirates haven’t recreated the success they had in Conference USA.
A commitment to football could help offset budget concerns. If a school has a budget in the 20- or 30-million range but has new facilities and pays its coach well while winning on the field, that could convince presidents. Stability of investment is important. Academics are a major key, too. Sources noted the group of AAC presidents has had a bit of turnover as well. Four schools have changed presidents this year, and Memphis will have a change next year. They will need to get on the same page.
Should the AAC focus on market size and urban schools? That would fit much of the current makeup of the league. But market size doesn’t mean what it did a decade ago. Now, TV partners want streaming viewership, and that means having a passionate fan base willing to pay to watch.
Who are the potential candidates for the AAC?
A lot of schools want in. Here are the schools to watch and the factors involved.
Appalachian State and Louisiana: These two Sun Belt powerhouses are perhaps the most intriguing options. App State has won at least nine games in six consecutive seasons. ULL has won at least nine games six times since 2011. If it’s about football success, these would be two of the best options. But their athletic budgets are in the $30 millions, success in other sports is limited and App State is remote and doesn’t pay its coach $1 million. On the other hand, the Mountaineers did just open a new football building. Louisiana also has relatively new facilities and pays Billy Napier $2 million, so the commitment to football is there. It’d be a remarkable feat if App State went from the FCS to the AAC in less than a decade.
UAB: The Blazers check a lot of boxes. It’s a growing university in a football-crazed urban area, and UAB has won two of the past three C-USA championships. UAB has an athletic budget in the mid-30s but pays Bill Clark $1.5 million, just opened a new stadium and has recent men’s basketball success.
Liberty: Liberty has a strong football and men’s basketball program. It has gorgeous facilities, a large budget and a large student population. But that’s never been the holdup. The school’s outspoken political involvement, especially under former president Jerry Falwell Jr., has kept presidents in other conferences far away. C-USA even reportedly turned down tens of millions from Liberty in exchange for a conference invitation when Liberty moved up from the FCS in 2018. The Flames have an independent football program, while most of the rest of their teams are in the ASUN. Falwell is gone, but there’s been no indication school presidents in FBS leagues want to get involved.
James Madison: The Dukes are finally looking to move up to the FBS, and sources at the school say they have engaged with multiple FBS conferences. JMU has outgrown the Colonial Athletic Association, and it tried to play an independent football schedule last fall when the CAA moved to a spring season, before scrapping the plan. Its budget is in the mid-50s and its facilities are new. As the NCAA undergoes restructuring, JMU would like to reach the FBS level alongside what it views as its athletic peers. The Dukes won the 2016 FCS national title and have reached the semifinals in four of the last five years. JMU finished No. 67 in the latest Learfield Directors Cup, including a Women’s College World Series run by its softball team.
Marshall: The Thundering Herd have football history, winning at both the FCS and FBS level. The budget is in the low 30s, but Marshall’s football attendance is near the top of this group. Geography could be a factor, as it’s also not quite a southern state, where the league has been shifting.
Charlotte: This would be a future play, as Charlotte’s football program is less than a decade old and has just one bowl appearance. The 49ers have one of the larger budgets in C-USA in the high-30s, and there is success in other sports, as Charlotte finished in the top 100 in the Directors Cup. If the AAC wants a big market, the city of Charlotte is growing.
Georgia State: This is the same situation as Charlotte, with a young football program and a growing school in an urban area (Atlanta). The budget is similar as well, though football coach Shawn Elliott makes only $750,000.
UTSA: Another young program (it began in 2011) in a growing urban area, this time in a football hotbed. Its budget is in the 30s and it just opened a $41 million athletics facility, with plans for a pavilion to cover a practice field.
Old Dominion: ODU is actually an affiliate AAC member in women’s lacrosse. It has the largest athletic budget in C-USA and just rebuilt its football stadium at the cost of more than $67 million. But that football program is young with little success at the FBS level.
Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles were left behind in the last round of realignment while their C-USA rivals departed for the new AAC. Southern Miss isn’t in a major market, and its budget is only in the high 20s. But USM’s case is football tradition, a passionate fan base and rivalries, which could be a boost to Memphis and Tulane. USM sources feel they can make the same case that helped the Sun Belt, going for fans over markets.
Rice: The AAC recently moved its headquarters to Dallas. With Houston leaving, does the league want a flag in the city? Football has been down, but Rice has been successful in other sports, finishing in the top 100 in the Directors Cup. It’s a small private school with strong academics and an enormous endowment of more than $6 billion, which would fit alongside SMU and Tulane.
North Texas: Again, does the AAC want a bigger presence in Texas? UNT has the second-highest budget in C-USA, and it pays Seth Littrell the highest salary in the conference ($1.85 million). Its facilities are superb, and a new indoor football facility just opened. For whatever reason, it hasn’t fully clicked on the field, as UNT has just three winning seasons since 2005.
FAU: The Owls moved from the Sun Belt to C-USA during the last round of realignment, and the pitch here is south Florida and facilities. With UCF on its way out, does the conference want another foothold in the state? Its stadium opened in 2011 and a new $40 million athletics building opened last year. FAU maintains it will pay to keep up. “This place is going to do whatever it takes to win at football,” one source said.
The Western Wing (Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force): What about going big? That’s the suggestion of one AAC source, to both help the conference and put space between itself and the Mountain West. The AAC has engaged Boise State in recent years, and Boise State and San Diego State once agreed to join the Big East a decade ago. But that was back when a BCS spot was on the table, before College Football Playoff expansion was imminent. Some MWC sources find this move unlikely, while others are at least intrigued. The MWC earns around $4 million with its TV deal, and a restructured AAC deal would likely be around the same. Moving to the AAC would greatly increase travel costs that could offset any difference. For some, there is not an appetite to send volleyball and other Olympic sports teams to places like Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Boise State remains a college football brand, but the athletic department has dealt with a number of cuts amid the pandemic financial strain, eliminating several sports last year and reworking its future football schedules. Could it be a football-only member, and would the West Coast Conference consider holding Boise State’s other sports like it did with BYU? It’s not exactly a cultural fit with the WCC’s private schools.
San Diego State, Colorado State and Air Force have athletic budgets in the 50s, which would fit the AAC, and travel would be less of a strain in the AAC for CSU and Air Force.
How is Conference USA viewed?
C-USA doesn’t have a lot to offer other G5 schools at the moment. Members are frustrated with the media rights situation, with games on anything from CBS Sports Network to Stadium, all while TV payouts to members plummeted. One year with the NFL Network didn’t amount to much. Schools want to make their games easier to watch in the next media rights negotiation, even if it’s for a bit less money. At this point, the TV money isn’t all that impactful.
James Madison could be an option if the AAC passes. The travel isn’t ideal, but linking back up with Old Dominion would help both programs. Liberty also fits in that footprint for the eastern part of the league, but C-USA has turned down the Flames before.
Some C-USA sources scoff at the idea of the Sun Belt looking down at C-USA. But the reality is Sun Belt schools aren’t looking to jump there right now.
|