(09-07-2021 07:07 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote: So what's the perception of the P12? I don't see anyone cracking the CFP and USC has fallen off the power train. I bring that up because I see a perception of the SEC followed by the BIG as powers and then everybody else in a scrum.
It depends on how you define "power". Does it mean results on the field, specifically recent results? Or brand value?
IMO, the actual definition of Power is brand value. It's high-brand schools that gets a conference invited to sign formal agreements that give you big media deals and P-level payouts from playoff systems. It's high-brand that makes the conference known nationally as a big deal. The Big 12 had that thanks to Texas and OU, now they do not anymore. Thanks to TX and OU, they do have permanent Autonomy status (there's no way to take that away) and are Power-level in all the signed deals until 2025. That's the legacy of TX and OU brand value.
The Big East proved that the brand-value of an old member can persist. Miami, who was the reason the Big East was included in the BCS-AQ group in 1998, left in 2003, but the Big East, thanks to deals signed, kept its formal Power/AQ status for almost a full 10 more years, until 2013. When Cincy and USF joined the Big East in 2005, we benefitted for seven years from the legacy of Miami's brand, even though they were gone by them. But for the NB12, after 2025, that likely goes away.
The PAC does face a perception problem. I think you sum up the PAC perception well. The PAC is perceived to be weak in football because it doesn't have any schools getting in to the CFP, which has kind of become the litmus test for that at the conference level.
But, the numbers also show that even over the past five years (throwing out virus 2020), the PAC has very much performed as a power-level league. The PAC has been better than the ACC on average. It just suffers because it doesn't have a Clemson to bail the conference out by making the playoffs every year. But the underlying fundamentals are sound.
BTW, USC is IMO nowhere close to being off the power train. In terms of brand, USC is still a top elite football brand, up there with anyone. That doesn't change due to a few bad seasons, and USC hasn't even really had a few bad seasons.
In the end, I think you might be correct - after 2025, we might see the dissolution of the P5 concept, with the SEC and B1G in a class of their own, and the PAC/ACC/NB12 in order behind them, with the AAC and MW next. Or something like that.