While football drives the realignment bus, the money to be earned from NCAAT units is not insignificant, especially if the per school media payouts are in the range they are projected to be going forward.

Over the last six NCAA tournaments, the B12 earned more units per member than any other conference (9.1 to the ACC's 7.7). If you subtract the units earned by OU and UT (17) and add the units earned by BYU, Houston, Cincy and UCF (22) that average would drop a bit, to 8.0, but still would lead the NCAA.

The AAC earned 29 units during that time, but if you subtract the 22 from the three defectors and the 2 from UConn which left before the last tournament, you only have 5 units (the least a conference could have is 6). Nobody they are likely to backfill with is going to impact hoops very much.

So the remaining schools in the AAC could stand to lose as much or more from their NCAA units (between $6-7 million per year) as they would from a reduced media contract at their next renewal.


EDIT: My faulty logic. The AAC would lose close to $7 million a year, but individual members would lose $700K if they have 10 members. So not nearly as bad as I just said, but not small potatoes if their media payouts drop into the $2-3 million range.

I'm going to guess Wichita State will start looking at alternatives. Not only is AAC Basketball not what it was when it joined (when it had UConn, Cincinnati and Houston), but - other than Tulsa - there is not any historical connection to the league membership.

I wonder if Tulsa/Wichita State combination would make sense for the MWC. That gets them to 12/12 in football and basketball.

(09-03-2021 04:59 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I'm going to guess Wichita State will start looking at alternatives. Not only is AAC Basketball not what it was when it joined (when it had UConn, Cincinnati and Houston), but - other than Tulsa - there is not any historical connection to the league membership.

I wonder if Tulsa/Wichita State combination would make sense for the MWC. That gets them to 12/12 in football and basketball.

They already have 12 in football.

1. Boise
2. Colorado State
3. Wyoming
4. Utah State
5. Air Force
6. SJSU
7. Fresno State
8. SDSU
9. UNR
10. UNLV
11. New Mexico
12. Hawai'i (FB only)

BIg 12 lost two teams in the Tourney (Texas and Oklahoma) but gains two who were in the Tourney (Houston, BYU) and another who is pretty regular for appearances (Cincy). For them probably not much change.

The SEC adds two more tourney schools, so they improve.

The American has fallen to about the MVC level, one bid, every other year one at-large bid as well. It's hard to see where the American gets help, since it will be looking at replacement schools from one bid conferences like the MAC, SBC and C-USA. In fact if they have low NET ratings the added schools could cost them an at-large bid by lowering the conference ranking. So they need to be careful.

UAB has a strong basketball history. Tourney appearances in 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2011, 2015 and they were 22-7 last year.

Old Dominion NCAA Tournament Appearances
1980, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2019

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...-all-time/

I know a program on that list that would be available.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk

The AAC could and might only add UAB.

Temple
East Carolina
South Florida
UAB
Memphis
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa
Wichita St.

Go to a 9/9 format to conserve the per school payout.

The AAC is going to fall behind the MW and A-10 in basketball. The Big 12 will remain a power conference in hoops with the Big East and P4.

(09-03-2021 07:16 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The AAC could and might only add UAB.

Temple
East Carolina
South Florida
UAB
Memphis
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa
Wichita St.

Go to a 9/9 format to conserve the per school payout.

Navy will want Rice so they will probably have to go to 10.

I could see Temple and Wichita leaving the AAC, which would hurt the league's soon-to-be-damaged hoops status even further.

I would hope Memphis will be OK given multiple factors. If Temple and Wichita leave, the only basketball programs of note left in the AAC would be Memphis, SMU and Tulsa. In this scenario, and as a Memphis fan, the key addition would be UAB. Memphis is, to an extent, somewhat like Gonzaga in that it has proven it can be relevant in a bad league. Still, it's not an ideal situation for Tiger hoops.

(09-03-2021 07:21 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The AAC is going to fall behind the MW and A-10 in basketball. The Big 12 will remain a power conference in hoops with the Big East and P4.

Agree fully.

One thing to consider in all this is that "Counting bids" doesn't really work to predict future strength, because conference play is a zero-sum game.

The main thing to look at is the overall win percentages of programs as a group before/after; because if you're winning non-conference games at the same clip before/after, the only thing that changes is WHO gets your conferences' usual average number of bids.

The best example of this was when Xavier, Butler, Temple and Charlotte left the A-10. Everyone counted bids and said the A-10 would become a one-bid league. But Charlotte wasn't great in the A-10, Temple always played a hard OOC schedule, and so VCU, Mason and Davidson could maintain the same OOC win percentage the A-10 always had. With the RPI/NET math the same OOC, the THIRD PLACE A-10 team was in the exact same spot. Someone's going 13-5 and being on the bubble. Instead of Dayton being third to Xavier/Temple, it just became St. Bonaventure/Rhode Island/Davidson being third to Dayton/VCU and the A-10 has been getting 2.9 bids per season, just like they always have. Their NCAA win totals went down a smidge, because Xavier would win a game or two every year and Bona is only 1-2 in their NCAA trips.


In conference play in 2020, the Big XII went 90-90 overall in conference play. Texas and Oklahoma went 18-18 combined.
Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and BYU (in their conferences) went a combined 46-24 that year.

But the New Big XII cannot go a 118-96 in conference play. They HAVE TO GO 108-108.

They'll be about the same in terms of ratio. Maybe one more bid per year by virtue of having 12 teams instead of 10.

The AAC will probably get close to the same number of bids, unless the remaining teams are too close to each other and beat each other up, but they'll lose units from NCAA wins as Houston and Cincy have won more games in the dance than their replacements probably will.

(09-03-2021 09:26 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  One thing to consider in all this is that "Counting bids" doesn't really work to predict future strength, because conference play is a zero-sum game.

You are right. It’s never additive. You can never just say the incoming teams would have performed the same in the new league as they did in their old league. But here are the Top 7 each year in KenPom in terms of strength…

KenPom 2021
2 Baylor
5 Houston
17 Tech
20 BYU
23 West Va
27 Kansas
33 Okla St

KenPom 2020
1 Kansas
3 Baylor
10 West Va
13 BYU
14 Houston
21 Texas Tech
44 Cincy

KenPom 2019
5 Texas Tech
12 Houston
15 Iowa St
17 Kansas
20 Kansas St
29 Cincy
34 UCF

KenPom 2018
4 Cincy
9 Kansas
11 Texas Tech
12 West Va
18 Houston
24 TCU
34 Baylor

KenPom 2017
6 Kansas
7 West Va
13 Baylor
17 Iowa St
22 Oklahoma St
23 Cincy
29 TCU

It's going to be a beast of a conference in basketball.

(09-03-2021 08:55 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I could see Temple and Wichita leaving the AAC, which would hurt the league's soon-to-be-damaged hoops status even further.

I would hope Memphis will be OK given multiple factors. If Temple and Wichita leave, the only basketball programs of note left in the AAC would be Memphis, SMU and Tulsa. In this scenario, and as a Memphis fan, the key addition would be UAB. Memphis is, to an extent, somewhat like Gonzaga in that it has proven it can be relevant in a bad league. Still, it's not an ideal situation for Tiger hoops.

Wichita is not going to leave. The A10 has made it clear they arent adding anyone and especially not midwest schools (that project is done). the MWC is not adding them, they will hold out for Gonzaga. AND... Wichita is way too prideful to go back to the MVC, they are pretty stuck to be realistic here.

(09-03-2021 09:26 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  ... The best example of this was when Xavier, Butler, Temple and Charlotte left the A-10. Everyone counted bids and said the A-10 would become a one-bid league. But Charlotte wasn't great in the A-10, Temple always played a hard OOC schedule, and so VCU, Mason and Davidson could maintain the same OOC win percentage the A-10 always had. With the RPI/NET math the same OOC, the THIRD PLACE A-10 team was in the exact same spot.

So who does the AAC add that holds their OOC win percentage close to what it is before UC, Houston and UCF leaves?

Cincinnati hoops recruiting about to get a boost. It’s been stymied for a few years due to conference affiliation. UC has the pedigree, the facilities and the fan base to recruit at a higher level.

(09-04-2021 09:42 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Cincinnati hoops recruiting about to get a boost. It’s been stymied for a few years due to conference affiliation. UC has the pedigree, the facilities and the fan base to recruit at a higher level.

Crosstown Shootout will undoubtedly benefit thanks to UC's new affiliation as well. One of the best college basketball rivalries just got better.

(09-03-2021 09:26 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  One thing to consider in all this is that "Counting bids" doesn't really work to predict future strength, because conference play is a zero-sum game.

The main thing to look at is the overall win percentages of programs as a group before/after; because if you're winning non-conference games at the same clip before/after, the only thing that changes is WHO gets your conferences' usual average number of bids.

The best example of this was when Xavier, Butler, Temple and Charlotte left the A-10. Everyone counted bids and said the A-10 would become a one-bid league. But Charlotte wasn't great in the A-10, Temple always played a hard OOC schedule, and so VCU, Mason and Davidson could maintain the same OOC win percentage the A-10 always had. With the RPI/NET math the same OOC, the THIRD PLACE A-10 team was in the exact same spot. Someone's going 13-5 and being on the bubble. Instead of Dayton being third to Xavier/Temple, it just became St. Bonaventure/Rhode Island/Davidson being third to Dayton/VCU and the A-10 has been getting 2.9 bids per season, just like they always have. Their NCAA win totals went down a smidge, because Xavier would win a game or two every year and Bona is only 1-2 in their NCAA trips.


In conference play in 2020, the Big XII went 90-90 overall in conference play. Texas and Oklahoma went 18-18 combined.
Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and BYU (in their conferences) went a combined 46-24 that year.

But the New Big XII cannot go a 118-96 in conference play. They HAVE TO GO 108-108.

They'll be about the same in terms of ratio. Maybe one more bid per year by virtue of having 12 teams instead of 10.

The AAC will probably get close to the same number of bids, unless the remaining teams are too close to each other and beat each other up, but they'll lose units from NCAA wins as Houston and Cincy have won more games in the dance than their replacements probably will.

I don’t believe it’s that simple because the A-10 was very purposeful in replacing Xavier et. al with the best basketball programs available to them. The quality drop off didn’t happen because they intentionally looked for basketball quality in replacements. For the AAC, they’re likely thinking football first and, frankly, none of the realistic football options are not great basketball programs to say the least. The AAC is replacing two excellent historical basketball programs (Cincinnati and Houston) and another school that was good enough to make the NCAA Tournament and took Duke and Zion Williamson down to the wire 2 years ago (UCF). That’s a *massive* hit from a hoops standpoint and there simply aren’t any FBS schools that have anywhere close to the basketball programs in place to replace them. The only basketball programs of any value that would conceivably be available are non-FBS schools in the A-10, but the AAC has now become way less attractive to them. I actually have more faith in the AAC doing enough in football to be the #6 league (which would mean a playoff berth in the expanded CFP in most years) than them being a consistent multi-bid basketball league.

So is the new AAC still a multi bid league in men’s basketball? I have to admit, I don’t follow the sport that closely. Wich St, Memphis and Temple are usually pretty good and Tulsa is usually a bubble school. Is that still the case?