I’m off this week and this is something I had in my head for a while. It took WAY too long but was fun! References at the bottom…here goes:

This ranking will analyze the top 10 expansion candidates based on the following:
Revenue (ticket sales+donations+sponsorships)
Attendance
Athletic budget
Education ranking
Football game TV ratings
Demographics (market size - competition for market)
Institution size and support (enrollment + endowment)
Intangibles (politics, religious affiliation, duplicate markets)

The 10 schools considered are:
BYU
CINCY
MEM
HOU
UCF
USF
Boise
SMU
Co. St
Tulane

For each category, 5 points are given to the 1st place school, then 4, etc.
Exception is made for basketball attendance as it is weighed less in expansion. Basketball will be a 3pt. scale.

REVENUE-based on the Knight Commission https://www.knightcommission.org/ ). *Only public school info is available (no BYU/SMU)
When broken down by tix sales, donors, and sponsors. Memphis leads both Tix, and donors while UCF is tops in sponsorships followed closely by Cincy

1.Memphis-27.18M
2. UCF-25.26
3. Boise-25.07
4. Cincy-22.98
5. CSU-22.87
LAST: USF is last in public schools-14.7M

ATTENDANCE-only revenue sports considered
Football-5 point scale
1. BYU-60k
2. UCF-44k
3. MEM-39k
4. CINCY-36k
5. BOISE-32k
LAST: Tulane

Basketball
1. MEM-16k
2. BYU-12K
3. Cincy-11k

ATHLETIC BUDGET-overall vs FB and BB. Points given only for overall
1. BYU-74.1M
2. SMU-68.8
3. HOU-66.3
4. MEM-61.2
5. USF-59.5
Last: Tulane-31.8

Football:
1. Co. St.- 26.6M
2. SMU- 21.1M
3. MEM- 20.8
4. UCF- 20.4
5. USF-19.7
LAST: Tulane-11.8

Basketball:
1. MEM- 11.9
2. BYU-7.76
3. HOU- 7.72
4. SMU- 7.3
5. CINCY- 6.2

FOOTBALL TV VIEWERS-for the 5 seasons years 2015-19 (no Covid year)
https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach...c03c689e50

1. BYU-#46 overall
2. Houston-#50
3. UCF-58
4. Memphis-59
5. Boise St-62
LAST: Cincy was 64th and it only went to 73 (SMU) but lower were all others not mentioned here

ACADEMICS-based on Research rating +USNWR + Shanghai
Tulane is the only AAU institution. Boise state ranks last here.

1. Tulane
2. SMU
3. BYU
4. USF
5. Cincy
LAST: Boise

DEMOGRAPHICS= Market size - competition + TV viewership. This is a squishy ranking but it considers DMA and attempts to account for ownership (Pro sports/P4 competition and TV views) TV weighted highest, then competition, then DMA

1. UCF-17 DMA. Magic, only 3 P4 schools (only 1 somewhat nearby-Fl) in a high population state 10 games over 1M viewers
2. Memphis- 51 DMA, Grizzlies, 2 SEC schools within 3 hrs (Ole Miss, Ms. State) 9 games>1M
3. Cincy- 36, 2pro sports, Ohio State, 9 games
4. BYU- 30, Jazz, Utes, 7 games
5. HOU-8, multiple pro franchises, multiple P4 schools, 8
LAST: Co.St or Tulane- CoSt (16th DMA)had no games over 1M, Tulane (50th) had 1. CoSt has multiple pro teams and P5 as does Tulane

Institutional size and support (enrollment and endowment. Endowment is weighted heavier as it is more indicative of true support level)
1. BYU (34K + 1.9B)
2. Cincy (46k + 1.5B)
3. HOU (46k + 1.0B)
4. SMU (12k + 1.7B)
5. Tulane (14k + 1.5B)
LAST: Boise

INTANGIBLES-weighing politics, religion, Subjective thoughts. No points given
1. BYU- religion became a huge negative last round. Does their stance become a trump card eliminating them?
2. Texas schools- SMU, HOU- how much competition is too much? I personally think SMU gets eliminated due to TCU and Baylor’s proximity while HOU is a candidate.

POINT TOTALS:
1. BYU- 27. By far the top school
2. MEM- 19
3. UCF- 16
4. Cincy- 13
5. HOU- 11
6. SMU- 10
7. Tulane- 6
8. BOI- 5
9. USF- 3
10. Co.St- 1

https://www.knightcommission.org/

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach...c03c689e50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drQPQu-ma4Q&t=617s The idea was born here and it’s a great video

A Memphis fan puts together a series of criteria (including one that even he admits is "squishy") and weights things accordingly and... (checks rankings)... Memphis is the highest ranked AAC school.



USFFan

(08-17-2021 12:45 PM)usffan Wrote:  A Memphis fan puts together a series of criteria (including one that even he admits is "squishy") and weights things accordingly and... (checks rankings)... Memphis is the highest ranked AAC school.



USFFan

Perhaps a fair point in general. But there is no question Memphis ranks highly in many categories that relate to expansion considerations — regardless of who assembles such a ranking.

Lots of folks like to criticize Memphis for having "not made the cut" the last Big 12 expansion candidate go-around. But I would think that many of them (at least privately) would agree that Memphis was as qualified overall (if not more so) than many of the programs that were considered and did make the cut.

Let's be blunt: Some of this board's posters view Memphis — both the city and the university — as "villains" of sorts. You don't get that level of dismissiveness with most other schools/athletic programs/locations of those schools.

I think it’s pretty clear that the 6 best options in alphabetical order are:

BYU
Cincinnati
Houston
Memphis
UCF
USF

The quandary is that the Big 12 really only needs 4 (or maybe only 2). Ultimately I think it will come down to the preference of the 8 schools deciding and what direction they see the conference going.

(08-17-2021 12:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-17-2021 12:45 PM)usffan Wrote:  A Memphis fan puts together a series of criteria (including one that even he admits is "squishy") and weights things accordingly and... (checks rankings)... Memphis is the highest ranked AAC school.



USFFan

Perhaps a fair point in general. But there is no question Memphis ranks highly in many categories that relate to expansion considerations — regardless of who assembles such a ranking.

Lots of folks like to criticize Memphis for having "not made the cut" the last Big 12 expansion candidate go-around. But I would think that many of them (at least privately) would agree that Memphis was as qualified overall (if not more so) than many of the programs that were considered and did make the cut.

Let's be blunt: Some of this board's posters view Memphis — both the city and the university — as "villains" of sorts. You don't get that level of dismissiveness with most other schools/athletic programs/locations of those schools.

Good work, Bill Dazzle. Interesting data and analysis. It's tough to craft a methodology to properly score the potential candidates. A primary issue with your methodology is the bias inserted in the process. You base the categories mostly on outside, third-party data and criteria...but then use an arbitrary and Memphis-favorable customization for the Demographics category.

I suggest you replace the Demographics with separate (1) Market Size and (2) Market Competition categories... Market Competition could refer to pro sports competition and other nearby P schools...but the Market Size category should be the main points driver, with the Market Competition providing a potential to downgrade, but not completely erase the Market Size category.

For instance, even with pro sports and multiple P schools, the Houston market provides access to 2.3M TV households; whereas the Memphis market only provides 580K TV households. You can't just subjectively skim over those facts and push Memphis three spots ahead of Houston...THAT is where you bias is showing.

(08-17-2021 12:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-17-2021 12:45 PM)usffan Wrote:  A Memphis fan puts together a series of criteria (including one that even he admits is "squishy") and weights things accordingly and... (checks rankings)... Memphis is the highest ranked AAC school.



USFFan

Perhaps a fair point in general. But there is no question Memphis ranks highly in many categories that relate to expansion considerations — regardless of who assembles such a ranking.

Lots of folks like to criticize Memphis for having "not made the cut" the last Big 12 expansion candidate go-around. But I would think that many of them (at least privately) would agree that Memphis was as qualified overall (if not more so) than many of the programs that were considered and did make the cut.

Let's be blunt: Some of this board's posters view Memphis — both the city and the university — as "villains" of sorts. You don't get that level of dismissiveness with most other schools/athletic programs/locations of those schools.

The cheating at Memphis gives them a bad reputation. Baylor, similarly, has a bad reputation because of the rape issues with football coupled with the murder by the basketball player a few years earlier

(08-17-2021 01:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-17-2021 12:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-17-2021 12:45 PM)usffan Wrote:  A Memphis fan puts together a series of criteria (including one that even he admits is "squishy") and weights things accordingly and... (checks rankings)... Memphis is the highest ranked AAC school.



USFFan

Perhaps a fair point in general. But there is no question Memphis ranks highly in many categories that relate to expansion considerations — regardless of who assembles such a ranking.

Lots of folks like to criticize Memphis for having "not made the cut" the last Big 12 expansion candidate go-around. But I would think that many of them (at least privately) would agree that Memphis was as qualified overall (if not more so) than many of the programs that were considered and did make the cut.

Let's be blunt: Some of this board's posters view Memphis — both the city and the university — as "villains" of sorts. You don't get that level of dismissiveness with most other schools/athletic programs/locations of those schools.

Good work, Bill Dazzle. Interesting data and analysis. It's tough to craft a methodology to properly score the potential candidates. A primary issue with your methodology is the bias inserted in the process. You base the categories mostly on outside, third-party data and criteria...but then use an arbitrary and Memphis-favorable customization for the Demographics category.

I suggest you replace the Demographics with separate (1) Market Size and (2) Market Competition categories... Market Competition could refer to pro sports competition and other nearby P schools...but the Market Size category should be the main points driver, with the Market Competition providing a potential to downgrade, but not completely erase the Market Size category.

For instance, even with pro sports and multiple P schools, the Houston market provides access to 2.3M TV households; whereas the Memphis market only provides 580K TV households. You can't just subjectively skim over those facts and push Memphis three spots ahead of Houston...THAT is where you bias is showing.

To be clear, YNot: Tigerjamessc did the ranking.

(08-17-2021 01:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-17-2021 12:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-17-2021 12:45 PM)usffan Wrote:  A Memphis fan puts together a series of criteria (including one that even he admits is "squishy") and weights things accordingly and... (checks rankings)... Memphis is the highest ranked AAC school.



USFFan

Perhaps a fair point in general. But there is no question Memphis ranks highly in many categories that relate to expansion considerations — regardless of who assembles such a ranking.

Lots of folks like to criticize Memphis for having "not made the cut" the last Big 12 expansion candidate go-around. But I would think that many of them (at least privately) would agree that Memphis was as qualified overall (if not more so) than many of the programs that were considered and did make the cut.

Let's be blunt: Some of this board's posters view Memphis — both the city and the university — as "villains" of sorts. You don't get that level of dismissiveness with most other schools/athletic programs/locations of those schools.

The cheating at Memphis gives them a bad reputation. Baylor, similarly, has a bad reputation because of the rape issues with football coupled with the murder by the basketball player a few years earlier

The cheating element clearly hurts Memphis. I have noted that many times on this board.

However, I still contend some posters on this board have an "anti-Memphis" bias on a level we don't see related to most other programs, including those that, like UM, have been caught cheating and have engaged in other unsavory acts. I have my suspicions as to why Memphis (the city, the university and its athletics program) attracts such dislike.

Think about it: Of all the posts made (including many recent posts) about Memphis not making the Big 12 "candidate consideration cut" a few years ago, have many been phrased like this:

"Memphis didn't make the cut. But to be fair, and when you consider multiple metrics, Memphis would have been a very solid candidate for consideration in 2016."

Now, and to be fair, lots of non-Memphis posters on the board are showing the Tiger program some respect now by noting UM will be a quality candidate. So some progress has been made. So perhaps I should lighten up.

Geography matters too. Even if travel costs aren’t a factor, travel time/hassle is since it takes away from class time and can adversely affect performance.

If that were a factor in the analysis it would help Houston, SMU, Memphis and Cincy and hurt Boise, USF, UCF and BYU.

(08-17-2021 02:19 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Geography matters too. Even if travel costs aren’t a factor, travel time/hassle is since it takes away from class time and can adversely affect performance.

If that were a factor in the analysis it would help Houston, SMU, Memphis and Cincy and hurt Boise, USF, UCF and BYU.

With the exception of football, USF and UCF would be considered "travel partners" for most sports, meaning for one plane trip you would cover two road games with a simple bus ride and wouldn't likely even have to change hotels. Same way, for example, the Washington schools travel to the Arizona schools (which, by the way, is further apart than Stillwater or Ames to Tampa).

USFFan

I get similar results. But I see UCF blocked by Kansas and the basketball coaches. They a re not going to take a school that has only been to one NCAA tourney this century and averages less than 5,000 fans in their arena. Football is not enough better to justify it.

I move Cincy to 2nd based on more NCAA appearances and Luke Fickell being under a long contract, meaning they have the strongest football.

Your school rankings are mostly AI plus Peer ranking --which is highly questionable, as it's just the random results of Professors asked to rank schools they've heard of rather than any personal knowledge.

HERD R&D is more consistent. Except that you have to subtract Medical school research, which skews badly the ranking of schools. You can see this in examples of similar schools, one with a Med school officially under the same accounting roof as administering school, such as UCLA, and one which is under a different roof yest still administered by the school, such as UCSF (Med) and UC Berkeley. Thus UCLA appears to have a larger R&D budget at 1,076,917,000 (yes that is $1B) than UC Bekeley at $770,822,000. But if you were to include UCSF with UCB to make it more apples to apples, you need to add $1,409,398,000 (yes $1.4B) to Berkeley's administrative total, to get $2,180,220,000 or almost double UCLA. There is a reason UC Berkeley has a row of parking spaces reserved for noble prize winner. (Note, UC Davis and UC Irvine, like UCLA include a medical school.) Baylor is another example, where the main campus is like BYU not a research center, but the Med school has $604m in R&D.

This is pretty consistent Nationally, we spend a lot more R&D dollars on medicine than all other sciences and engineering combined. It's been a steady shift over time. So one has to remember that schools like South Florida, UAB and Cincinnati have the medical college included, but others like Colorado State have no medical school. So even HERD is not always apples to aples. Not sure how much to reduce the R&D by, but cutting in half is probably fair. (Note, Texas is a school where the medical school is not included, making their number, like Cal's very impressive.)

Anyway that shuffles things:

South Florida = $558m (med school)
Cincinnati = $455m (med school)
Colorado State = $338m
Temple = $268m (med school)
UCF = $233m (med school)
Houston = $169m
Memphis = $46m
BYU = $43m // high AI school
Boise State = $35m

Remaining Eight

Iowa State = $324m
Kansas = $300m (med school)
K State = $196m
Texas Tech = $191m
Oklahoma State = $191m
West Virginia = $185m (med school)
Baylor = $29m // high AI school
TCU = $7m // high AI school

If you are curious why the Pac-12 will pass, the HERD numbers answer. They are a research conference. They bent a little bit with Utah to have a 12th

UW = $1,35b
Stanford = $1.09b
UCLA = $1.08b
Cal = $771m (no med)
USC = $764m
Arizona = $622m
ASU = $545m (no med)
CU = $499m (no med)
Utah = $380m
WSU = $357m (no med)
Oregon State = $267m (no med)
Oregon = $96m (no med, no engineering schools)

Oregon Health and Science University has a $384m R&D budget.
CU Anschutz Medical Campus has a $481m R&D budget
UCSF (administered by Cal) has a $1.41b R&D budget


Looking at the Big 12 I don't know if research level is all that important in their situation. Carnegie has allowed a lot of grade inflation and pretty much every large public institution is now granted R1 status. It used be almost 1 to 1 with AAU membership. This forces a deeper dive into the numbers to determine peers. Memphis and Boise State are clearly hurt by low AI numbers combined with low research levels. Even if you allow that half of West Virginia's R&D budget is eaten up by their med school, these two are well short of even that Mendoza line. But does it matter? The data clearly show BYU then Memphis with Cincy (if as I suspect basketball gets some weight) and UCF following.

BYU + Memphis would fit the best value, but I think the combination of athletic performance and academic fit would put Cincy ahead of Memphis and UCF.

(08-17-2021 12:45 PM)usffan Wrote:  A Memphis fan puts together a series of criteria (including one that even he admits is "squishy") and weights things accordingly and... (checks rankings)... Memphis is the highest ranked AAC school.



USFFan

Lol…knew this was coming for sure. I didn’t consciously try to rank MEM high….but subconsciously?

Even if you remove the 4pts for Memphis in Demographics and give them 2, we’re still 2nd.

Honestly, each ranking should probably be weighed according to importance but there’s too many variables and unknowns…I’m sure it would turn out different if you could account for what the L8 considers the most important categories. In the end, like most things in life, it probably comes down to connections.

There are tons of other intangibles for instance. UCF seems like a clear choice aside from geography. Would this make the new conf also choose USF? Or would it eliminate UCF? To many unknowns but it was a fun project to grab what is known

Coming into this latest realignment I was a Memphis skeptic but am now sold - the Geography is just too perfect and a P5 slot probably elevates the program in general.

If the B12 wants to get to 12, seems like:
BYU, Cinci, Memphis and Houston are pretty solid adds

If they want to get to 14, that's when you'd get UCF and USF

I've always been in favor of an aggressive expansion to 14 - it depletes all the worthy teams from AAC, meaning the #6 conference is probably whats left of the Mountain West...

In reality, the B12 is probably #2 or #3 in basketball consistently, and will have years they are #4 in football over the Pac.

My only problem with BYU is geography. If the Big 12 maintains a presence in Eastern Time, it's awkward to expand into Mountain.

I'd like to see how Connecticut stands.

(08-17-2021 03:01 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Coming into this latest realignment I was a Memphis skeptic but am now sold - the Geography is just too perfect and a P5 slot probably elevates the program in general.

If the B12 wants to get to 12, seems like:
BYU, Cinci, Memphis and Houston are pretty solid adds

If they want to get to 14, that's when you'd get UCF and USF

I've always been in favor of an aggressive expansion to 14 - it depletes all the worthy teams from AAC, meaning the #6 conference is probably whats left of the Mountain West...

In reality, the B12 is probably #2 or #3 in basketball consistently, and will have years they are #4 in football over the Pac.

I agree…I could see UCF get in over HOU due to the other teams in Texas. UCF is still a giant. 73K students . They could continue growing into a monster of a program as they generate more and more alumni.

I like the point about squashing any other competition. You end the discussion by taking those you mentioned. Maybe you swap Boise for USF, but I doubt it

First of all: no real idea what’s going to happen. I’m just another middle-aged fan skimming the headlines as time allows.

With that said: it’s incredibly difficult for me to envision a scenario in which the L8 willingly joins up with Boise State. Memphis is a long stretch, but… possible. Boise State is just out of the question, imho.

I guess we’ll find out!

Well, I continue to think that the Big 12 isn't even going to consider expansion until the UT/OU departure and the amount owed is much more clear, but this forum likes to jump the gun a bit, so...

I continue to have a LOT of problems with BYU based on TCU's direct experience with them in the WAC and MWC, but have to admit that they are far and away the splashiest team available and would swallow my objections because they would be great mates for a few years or so (until they inevitably switch and start to undermine and destroy the conference). Beyond that, I like Houston because it would help with TCU's recruiting. Cincinnati and Memphis and UCF are also very good candidates. I also like the Gonzaga idea.

(08-17-2021 03:16 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  First of all: no real idea what’s going to happen. I’m just another middle-aged fan skimming the headlines as time allows.

With that said: it’s incredibly difficult for me to envision a scenario in which the L8 willingly joins up with Boise State. Memphis is a long stretch, but… possible. Boise State is just out of the question, imho.

I guess we’ll find out!

Could be! If academics is a top category, while Boise is last, Memphis is next. I think they will be more focused on remaining relevant with eyeballs and successful programs in BB and FB

(08-17-2021 02:34 PM)usffan Wrote:  With the exception of football, USF and UCF would be considered "travel partners" for most sports, meaning for one plane trip you would cover two road games with a simple bus ride and wouldn't likely even have to change hotels. Same way, for example, the Washington schools travel to the Arizona schools (which, by the way, is further apart than Stillwater or Ames to Tampa).

USFFan

Fair point if both are taken. I’m looking at them independently. Either one taken alone would constitute another WVU-type island that’s 900 to 1100 miles away from the rest of the conference.

I did the distance with the 11 finalists + Memphis a few years back. Taking out Norman and Austin, below is the median and average distance for each of those 12 schools.

Median Average
distance distance
BYU 1,122 1,183
Memphis 560 594.4
Cincinnati 765 783
Houston 628 660.5
UCF 1,284 1,233
Uconn 1,515 1,456
USF 1,303 1,256
Air Force 665 731
Colorado St. 693 805
Tulane 862 807
SMU 420 462
Rice 516 588