(07-26-2021 12:58 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Money talks, the MWC has no pull.

*** SMUstang ***

??? Big 12 raids MW schools instead of AAC. Big 12 still an A5 conference, AAC outside looking in.

(07-26-2021 12:49 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  Big 12 with 3 or 4 teams will still retain the conference name and backfill with MWC and AAC schools.

The MWC and AAC schools offered will jump right in to be associated with the Big 12 leftovers

100% agree

(07-26-2021 01:00 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:58 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  The AAC loses UH, Memphis and Cincinnati. The MW loses either CSU or AF.
I think the Big 12 will have to get at 12 for stability reasons.

If the Big 12 is able to stay together, and pick up schools, they will have to go to 14-16. They don't have any choice. Schools are looking for exits. If you only go to 12, and then lose 2-3 more to Pac or Big, then what. They will need a cushion.

Then what? Then you just add more teams that will still be there waiting. I think you fundamentally get this idea when it comes to why the AAC is sitting at 11, they could add 3 more to add "stability" for a cushion, but what exactly is the point? If they don't increase the value of the league there's no reason for the AAC to do it, and the only schools that would increase the AAC's value (Boise/BYU/Army/etc) aren't interested. Exact same thing applies to the leftover B12 teams. Same as the AAC teams every single one of them would leave for any "better" opportunity now, but they probably don't exist, and very few if any additions that could be had would dramatically increase the TV value for everyone.

The old Big East bylaws had a 27-month wait time for a departing member, along with a $10 million exit fee. I believe UConn had the same contractual exit fee (but they paid $17 million one year after announcing that they were leaving) when they returned to the Big East.

Is that still accurate?

(07-26-2021 12:58 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  The AAC loses UH, Memphis and Cincinnati. The MW loses either CSU or AF.
I think the Big 12 will have to get at 12 for stability reasons.

The AAC at 9 members will stand pat unless it’s better to add one for 5 team divisions.

I've been debating 10 and 12 in my head. Why do you think 12 is more stable? Because it has more of a numbers buffer if it loses additional schools down the line?

(07-26-2021 02:58 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:58 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  The AAC loses UH, Memphis and Cincinnati. The MW loses either CSU or AF.
I think the Big 12 will have to get at 12 for stability reasons.

The AAC at 9 members will stand pat unless it’s better to add one for 5 team divisions.

I've been debating 10 and 12 in my head. Why do you think 12 is more stable? Because it has more of a numbers buffer if it loses additional schools down the line?

I think they go to 16 for many of the reasons the other conferences went to 16 and to gut either the AAC or MWC and insure they retain access to the playoff.

If the AAC loses both Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12, having already seen UConn depart, it will have lost three of its six programs that have been to the Final Four (the others being Memphis, Temple and Wichita). At this point, and as a long-time Memphis fan, I would be extremely concerned about the future of Tiger hoops. There simply is no other athletics program that offers that level of basketball and that also sponsors DI football that would immediately take an AAC invite. True, UMass would be out there. But would UMass even be interested in an AAC that had just been so strongly wounded?

Like Kansas fans, this Memphis fan is worried.

(07-26-2021 03:17 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses both Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12, having already seen UConn depart, it will have lost three of its six programs that have been to the Final Four (the others being Memphis, Temple and Wichita). At this point, and as a long-time Memphis fan, I would be extremely concerned about the future of Tiger hoops. There simply is no other athletics program that offers that level of basketball and that also sponsors DI football that would immediately take an AAC invite. True, UMass would be out there. But would UMass even be interested in an AAC that had just been so strongly wounded?

Like Kansas fans, this Memphis fan is worried.

Bill, as important as basketball is, it is football that drives realignment. I see a merger between the Big XII and the AAC coming. Both sports should be enhanced in the resulting conference.

***SMUstang ***

(07-26-2021 03:25 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 03:17 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses both Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12, having already seen UConn depart, it will have lost three of its six programs that have been to the Final Four (the others being Memphis, Temple and Wichita). At this point, and as a long-time Memphis fan, I would be extremely concerned about the future of Tiger hoops. There simply is no other athletics program that offers that level of basketball and that also sponsors DI football that would immediately take an AAC invite. True, UMass would be out there. But would UMass even be interested in an AAC that had just been so strongly wounded?

Like Kansas fans, this Memphis fan is worried.

Bill, as important as basketball is, it is football that drives realignment. I see a merger between the Big XII and the AAC coming. Both sports should be enhanced in the resulting conference.

***SMUstang ***

I strongly agree with you about football driving expansion, SMUstang. But basketball is hugely important at the U. of Memphis (it is part of the city's fabric). So this is concerning.

I hope you are correct about a merger of sorts. Perhaps the remaining eight Big 12 take eight from the AAC to go to 16.

(07-26-2021 03:28 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 03:25 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 03:17 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses both Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12, having already seen UConn depart, it will have lost three of its six programs that have been to the Final Four (the others being Memphis, Temple and Wichita). At this point, and as a long-time Memphis fan, I would be extremely concerned about the future of Tiger hoops. There simply is no other athletics program that offers that level of basketball and that also sponsors DI football that would immediately take an AAC invite. True, UMass would be out there. But would UMass even be interested in an AAC that had just been so strongly wounded?

Like Kansas fans, this Memphis fan is worried.

Bill, as important as basketball is, it is football that drives realignment. I see a merger between the Big XII and the AAC coming. Both sports should be enhanced in the resulting conference.

***SMUstang ***

I strongly agree with you about football driving expansion, SMUstang. But basketball is hugely important at the U. of Memphis (it is part of the city's fabric). So this is concerning.

I hope you are correct about a merger of sorts. Perhaps the remaining eight Big 12 take eight from the AAC to go to 16.

I don’t think there will be 8 Big XII teams left after a few of them find a landing spot. I’m thinking 5 or 6 Big XII schools will merge with 8 to 10 AAC schools.

*** SMUstang ***

(07-26-2021 04:53 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 03:28 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 03:25 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 03:17 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses both Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12, having already seen UConn depart, it will have lost three of its six programs that have been to the Final Four (the others being Memphis, Temple and Wichita). At this point, and as a long-time Memphis fan, I would be extremely concerned about the future of Tiger hoops. There simply is no other athletics program that offers that level of basketball and that also sponsors DI football that would immediately take an AAC invite. True, UMass would be out there. But would UMass even be interested in an AAC that had just been so strongly wounded?

Like Kansas fans, this Memphis fan is worried.

Bill, as important as basketball is, it is football that drives realignment. I see a merger between the Big XII and the AAC coming. Both sports should be enhanced in the resulting conference.

***SMUstang ***

I strongly agree with you about football driving expansion, SMUstang. But basketball is hugely important at the U. of Memphis (it is part of the city's fabric). So this is concerning.

I hope you are correct about a merger of sorts. Perhaps the remaining eight Big 12 take eight from the AAC to go to 16.

I don’t think there will be 8 Big XII teams left after a few of them find a landing spot. I’m thinking 5 or 6 Big XII schools will merge with 8 to 10 AAC schools.

*** SMUstang ***

I'm not sure I see the Big 12 taking that many AAC schools. Why not just add the top 6 and cut loose schools like Tulsa Tulane and Temple that won't ever have large enough fan bases to fit into the Big 12?

(07-26-2021 02:14 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 01:00 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:58 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  The AAC loses UH, Memphis and Cincinnati. The MW loses either CSU or AF.
I think the Big 12 will have to get at 12 for stability reasons.

If the Big 12 is able to stay together, and pick up schools, they will have to go to 14-16. They don't have any choice. Schools are looking for exits. If you only go to 12, and then lose 2-3 more to Pac or Big, then what. They will need a cushion.

Then what? Then you just add more teams that will still be there waiting. I think you fundamentally get this idea when it comes to why the AAC is sitting at 11, they could add 3 more to add "stability" for a cushion, but what exactly is the point? If they don't increase the value of the league there's no reason for the AAC to do it, and the only schools that would increase the AAC's value (Boise/BYU/Army/etc) aren't interested. Exact same thing applies to the leftover B12 teams. Same as the AAC teams every single one of them would leave for any "better" opportunity now, but they probably don't exist, and very few if any additions that could be had would dramatically increase the TV value for everyone.

^^^This.

The Big 12 is done as a power conference. Its future is tweener status. Hence there’s no reason for the conference to dilute its remaining media value by rushing to expand beyond 10 members, or at most 12. If the Big 12 loses more members later on, the AAC and MWC will still be around for it to cherry-pick from again.

I may be talking out of my substantial arse here but I think I remember it being posted here that the Big 12 needs 75 percent yea votes to dissolve. So the only way that happens is if eight schools have life rafts and the other two are boned, forced to the AAC/MWC/independence. Unless the Pac 12 takes four and the Big Ten (or ACC) grabs Kansas + someone, the Big 12 will likely survive.

(07-26-2021 05:53 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 02:14 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 01:00 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:58 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  The AAC loses UH, Memphis and Cincinnati. The MW loses either CSU or AF.
I think the Big 12 will have to get at 12 for stability reasons.

If the Big 12 is able to stay together, and pick up schools, they will have to go to 14-16. They don't have any choice. Schools are looking for exits. If you only go to 12, and then lose 2-3 more to Pac or Big, then what. They will need a cushion.

Then what? Then you just add more teams that will still be there waiting. I think you fundamentally get this idea when it comes to why the AAC is sitting at 11, they could add 3 more to add "stability" for a cushion, but what exactly is the point? If they don't increase the value of the league there's no reason for the AAC to do it, and the only schools that would increase the AAC's value (Boise/BYU/Army/etc) aren't interested. Exact same thing applies to the leftover B12 teams. Same as the AAC teams every single one of them would leave for any "better" opportunity now, but they probably don't exist, and very few if any additions that could be had would dramatically increase the TV value for everyone.

^^^This.

The Big 12 is done as a power conference. Its future is tweener status. Hence there’s no reason for the conference to dilute its remaining media value by rushing to expand beyond 10 members, or at most 12. If the Big 12 loses more members later on, the AAC and MWC will still be around for it to cherry-pick from again.

Exactly, and if the AAC loses 2 or fewer members I don't think they should add anyone unless it's the exact same list of schools that aren't coming. It's just amazing to me watching AAC posters who completely get this when it comes to not adding a bunch of C-USA schools to get to 14 thinking the B12 is gonna add a bunch of AAC schools to get to 14.

(07-26-2021 03:17 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses both Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12, having already seen UConn depart, it will have lost three of its six programs that have been to the Final Four (the others being Memphis, Temple and Wichita). At this point, and as a long-time Memphis fan, I would be extremely concerned about the future of Tiger hoops. There simply is no other athletics program that offers that level of basketball and that also sponsors DI football that would immediately take an AAC invite. True, UMass would be out there. But would UMass even be interested in an AAC that had just been so strongly wounded?

Like Kansas fans, this Memphis fan is worried.

I could invision Aresco being aggressive enough to go after a couple A10 schools for non-football adds if the hoops side of the league is badly damaged.

Now you may say what's in it for the A10 schools? The money and teams left in the AAC would have to be right.

(07-26-2021 06:09 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I may be talking out of my substantial arse here but I think I remember it being posted here that the Big 12 needs 75 percent yea votes to dissolve. So the only way that happens is if eight schools have life rafts and the other two are boned, forced to the AAC/MWC/independence. Unless the Pac 12 takes four and the Big Ten (or ACC) grabs Kansas + someone, the Big 12 will likely survive.

Yep, and even if they get down to 3 schools same as the old Big East but on a large scale they will have a massive war chest of buyout fees and left behind tournament credits, Probably 5-10x what the USF/Cincy/UCONN group had and even down to 3 every single AAC/MWC school would join them.