I feel KU is on the outside looking in, much like UC with the current Big 12. Just not good enough to justify the splitting of the pie. I don't see Mizzou budging honestly. How can you complain with games against UT, Ark, OU every year? You just can't. I mean it sucks not having KU in the same conference but so be it.

Under no circumstances do I see a PAC 14 scenario with the Kansas'. B1G with 15 is still too awkward, but it's a possibility while they hold out for ND.

There will be no political blocking. Reality is things are consolidating. OU and Texas are leaving. In Texas some legislators will try to make a stink (one for Baylor is), but in reality only one public school is negatively impacted and that is Texas Tech, something of an afterthought to most Texans. That isn't going to get the blood boiling, The prospect of UT vs A&M returning is what people want, and all teh posturing by A&M will make that game bigger than ever. Auburn and Alabama will look like a love fest by comparison. Heck if Texas is 4-7 and A&M is 3-9 the first time they play again on Thanksgiving, I'm turning on the TV to see what the idiots in the stands do. Even better if they play it at a neutral field with 50-50 ticket sales.

Missouri is not leaving the SEC either. The biggest money is there.

The ACC is still focused on Notre Dame, so they wont add anyone. The Pac-12 and B1G AI requirements eliminate every school among the little-8 except KU, TCU and Baylor, while the lack of research (as well as religious affiliation ... which can be overlooked for Notre Dame only) eliminates TCU and Baylor. KU doesn't help the Pac-12 one iota, and alone I don't see the value for the B1G. It looks to me like the little 8 are stuck until the B1G can raid the ACC next decade. They have to survive for 10 years. Which means they make OU and Texas stay all four years of the GOR to maximize revenue, and work with ESPN (CBS leaving them) to pick two schools to replace them with the highest brand value. They wont go further than 10 because they need to maximize per school revenue. More schools does not mean more TV or distribution revenue, it probably means less. And they need to stay top in basketball to keep their profile high until opportunities arise in the next decade. IMHO that means BYU (biggest brand less dilution) and probably Cincy (but cases can be made for Houston, UCF and even Memphis with FedEx money instead ... they have four years to decide). Then they need to ride it out with a 10 year contract and GOR.

The B1G best move is to work on making the conference as attractive as possible for schools like Colorado, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Duke and Florida State. They badly need at least one of those ACC schools to make expansion worthwhile.

If I'm the SEC I counter by quietly courting North Carolina.

(07-22-2021 11:52 AM)PusherT Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 11:46 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 09:23 AM)NJ2MDTerp Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 09:08 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Our idiot commissioner was clearly outplayed by his SEC counterpart. The Big Ten schools have been out there fishing for Oklahoma.

The SEC and ESPN has all of college football exactly where they want them. The own the ACC’s soul and no one there can move. The Big 10 has no one they can expand with that can add value unless we bust into the PAC 12 but the travel involved makes that highly unlikely.

I’m not a fan of any scheme that puts programs like UNC, UVA, or Duke in the Big Ten. those schools don’t care about or invest in football. In an eyeball driven market, they are dead weight.

At this point, our best bet is adding USC and ND.

Delaney should've taken Nebraska, Missouri and Oklahoma a decade ago as a package deal instead of looking eastward (at Maryland and Rutgers) after taking Nebraska.

So you think the Big Ten made a mistake adding your school?

big ten instead of going for Rutgers should have looked west and raided PAC 10 back then for a big team but alas you are stuck with Rutgers and Maryland school that are overwhelmed will be forever overwhelmed by PSU/OSU/UM/Wisconsin. Big ten should have went for UCLA and USC .

B1G wouldn't raid Pac 12 back then.

(07-22-2021 12:45 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:40 PM)Claw Wrote:  I really think Mizzou and Kansas to the B1G is the right move to build something that will last.

These big conferences got that way because they were put together correctly.

Long term, Mizzou and Kansas are the right move for the B1G.

The question for SEC #16 emerges. I think it'd be Oklahoma St.

Missouri isn't going to leave the SEC. But if they did, the replacement would be Florida State.

Alternatively, because there's about a 99% chance that football divisions will be unnecessary going forward, the SEC would not replace Missouri and would be very happy to divide its big pot of money 15 ways instead of 16.

(07-22-2021 12:45 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I feel KU is on the outside looking in, much like UC with the current Big 12. Just not good enough to justify the splitting of the pie. I don't see Mizzou budging honestly. How can you complain with games against UT, Ark, OU every year? You just can't. I mean it sucks not having KU in the same conference but so be it.

Under no circumstances do I see a PAC 14 scenario with the Kansas'. B1G with 15 is still too awkward, but it's a possibility while they hold out for ND.

I've said it once, I'll say it again. The PAC needs central time zone teams for east coast exposure and to avoid 9 am games. Their new commissioner comes from media and is probably licking his chops. Kansas to the PAC is far more likely than Kansas to the B1G.

The pac 12 should offer KU and Texas tech if Texas and OU leave the big 12. I’d probably also add Houston and either TCU or Ok state to get to 16

(07-22-2021 12:45 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I feel KU is on the outside looking in, much like UC with the current Big 12. Just not good enough to justify the splitting of the pie. I don't see Mizzou budging honestly. How can you complain with games against UT, Ark, OU every year? You just can't. I mean it sucks not having KU in the same conference but so be it.

Under no circumstances do I see a PAC 14 scenario with the Kansas'. B1G with 15 is still too awkward, but it's a possibility while they hold out for ND.

I feel this way about all of the remaining Big XII programs. There's no slam dunk that says any 1 team should move to any remaining P5 conference.

The bottom line is that the B1G is now at a serious disadvantage long-term to the SEC, and the only way they expand is if they can pull in a top school from the ACC (previously the B1G had looked at Georgia Tech, for instance, which delivers new TV markets and has enormous potential). But even if you add a couple ACC schools, you're still not pulling in blue bloods... would UNC/UVA really move the needle? You might need to add KU/UNC/UVA/Ga Tech, at which point you'd also be splitting the pie 18 ways!

I dunno, it's going to be very tricky for the B1G. Their best best might honestly be a type of merger / unified TV deal with the Pac-12.

I think 24 is better than 21 for the big 10 if they want to get that big. East, central and west set up of 8 teams...invite all pac 12 schools but wash state and oreg state.

(07-22-2021 12:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 11:58 AM)usffan Wrote:  If you're CBS and/or Fox, you're watching ESPN maximizing the new contract they just signed when they locked up the SEC by snatching two of the most valuable pieces of the Big XII. And you know that the B1G, Pac-12 and the Big XII rights are all coming up. The question is - can you craft something that would keep you in that same stratosphere? I thing one or both (working together to undermine ESPN) go to the B1G and try to convince them to do something bold by bringing the 4 California schools plus Oregon and Washington (all AAU schools) into the fold. In doing so, you lock up the entire west coast and several major metropolitan areas. That's a 20 team conference, so you'd clearly have to have something like 5 team pods which aren't as neat as the SEC, but you pretty well get away from any "GOR" issues from the ACC and you get the most valuable remaining properties. Then you let the Pac-12 remnants and the Big XII remnants merge to form a "best of the rest" conference if they wish.

USFFan

Interesting idea.

A truly BIG idea would be to create a 3rd west coast division and raid the PAC
USC
UCLA
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Arizona (AAU) or Arizona St (Phoenix + Ice Hockey Program)

This would give the Big 10 a 21 team conference, although it would be more league at that point, that controls the entire country west of Texas and North of Virginia.

Would FOX be willing to pay a per team SEC + Texas/OU level payout to achieve this?

It needs to add ND to make that work. Then ND had all of the old rivalries in conference. USC, Stanford, UM, MSU & Purdue and it gives ND a national footprint.

(07-22-2021 01:10 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:45 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I feel KU is on the outside looking in, much like UC with the current Big 12. Just not good enough to justify the splitting of the pie. I don't see Mizzou budging honestly. How can you complain with games against UT, Ark, OU every year? You just can't. I mean it sucks not having KU in the same conference but so be it.

Under no circumstances do I see a PAC 14 scenario with the Kansas'. B1G with 15 is still too awkward, but it's a possibility while they hold out for ND.

I feel this way about all of the remaining Big XII programs. There's no slam dunk that says any 1 team should move to any remaining P5 conference.

The bottom line is that the B1G is now at a serious disadvantage long-term to the SEC, and the only way they expand is if they can pull in a top school from the ACC (previously the B1G had looked at Georgia Tech, for instance, which delivers new TV markets and has enormous potential). But even if you add a couple ACC schools, you're still not pulling in blue bloods... would UNC/UVA really move the needle? You might need to add KU/UNC/UVA/Ga Tech, at which point you'd also be splitting the pie 18 ways!

I dunno, it's going to be very tricky for the B1G. Their best best might honestly be a type of merger / unified TV deal with the Pac-12.

I agree. The only thing that could surpass a UT/OU move to the SEC would be the B1G assimilating the AAU PAC programs - Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah and Washington. If that were ever to occur, then the SEC and B1G just take the leftovers that are like-minded fits to fill out two 24-28 team leagues. The SEC could seek Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, NC State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and a Texas Tech or TCU, while the B1G looks at UNC, Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Kansas and, quite possibly under this arrangement, Notre Dame.

P5 gets sliced down to 48 teams, two conferences, eight divisions and an overwhelming majority of all the top revenues.

Any type of merger between the Big Ten/ACC or the Big Ten/PAC would have to involve shedding the "dead weight" from each conference.

But if the top schools from the Big Ten and ACC leave to join a new super conference, they might as well just join THE super conference.

For example: OSU, Mich, PSU, ND, Clem, FSU, could all leave to start a new superconference, but why not just leave to join the SEC instead?

(07-22-2021 12:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 11:58 AM)usffan Wrote:  If you're CBS and/or Fox, you're watching ESPN maximizing the new contract they just signed when they locked up the SEC by snatching two of the most valuable pieces of the Big XII. And you know that the B1G, Pac-12 and the Big XII rights are all coming up. The question is - can you craft something that would keep you in that same stratosphere? I thing one or both (working together to undermine ESPN) go to the B1G and try to convince them to do something bold by bringing the 4 California schools plus Oregon and Washington (all AAU schools) into the fold. In doing so, you lock up the entire west coast and several major metropolitan areas. That's a 20 team conference, so you'd clearly have to have something like 5 team pods which aren't as neat as the SEC, but you pretty well get away from any "GOR" issues from the ACC and you get the most valuable remaining properties. Then you let the Pac-12 remnants and the Big XII remnants merge to form a "best of the rest" conference if they wish.

USFFan

Interesting idea.

A truly BIG idea would be to create a 3rd west coast division and raid the PAC
USC
UCLA
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Arizona (AAU) or Arizona St (Phoenix + Ice Hockey Program)

This would give the Big 10 a 21 team conference, although it would be more league at that point, that controls the entire country west of Texas and North of Virginia.

Would FOX be willing to pay a per team SEC + Texas/OU level payout to achieve this?

Realistically, I don't see that happening at that scale.

That being said, it might be a good time for the Big Ten and Pac-12 to resurrect the partnership/alliance that ended up getting killed (by the Pac-12 side) a few years ago. That may honestly be better than any expansion option either league has right now.

A pooling of the their TV rights?

Could they get the pie big enough that at 26 way split is enough to match the new 16 team SEC's per team payout?

(07-22-2021 12:52 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:45 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:40 PM)Claw Wrote:  I really think Mizzou and Kansas to the B1G is the right move to build something that will last.

These big conferences got that way because they were put together correctly.

Long term, Mizzou and Kansas are the right move for the B1G.

The question for SEC #16 emerges. I think it'd be Oklahoma St.

Missouri isn't going to leave the SEC. But if they did, the replacement would be Florida State.

Alternatively, because there's about a 99% chance that football divisions will be unnecessary going forward, the SEC would not replace Missouri and would be very happy to divide its big pot of money 15 ways instead of 16.

College football as we have known it is gone. What makes long term sense is to build a stable geographic conference with the best academic schools you can get. Kansas and Mizzou fit that profile. I don't know if their vision is far enough out to see the benefit.

(07-22-2021 12:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 11:58 AM)usffan Wrote:  If you're CBS and/or Fox, you're watching ESPN maximizing the new contract they just signed when they locked up the SEC by snatching two of the most valuable pieces of the Big XII. And you know that the B1G, Pac-12 and the Big XII rights are all coming up. The question is - can you craft something that would keep you in that same stratosphere? I thing one or both (working together to undermine ESPN) go to the B1G and try to convince them to do something bold by bringing the 4 California schools plus Oregon and Washington (all AAU schools) into the fold. In doing so, you lock up the entire west coast and several major metropolitan areas. That's a 20 team conference, so you'd clearly have to have something like 5 team pods which aren't as neat as the SEC, but you pretty well get away from any "GOR" issues from the ACC and you get the most valuable remaining properties. Then you let the Pac-12 remnants and the Big XII remnants merge to form a "best of the rest" conference if they wish.

USFFan

Interesting idea.

A truly BIG idea would be to create a 3rd west coast division and raid the PAC
USC
UCLA
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Arizona (AAU) or Arizona St (Phoenix + Ice Hockey Program)

This would give the Big 10 a 21 team conference, although it would be more league at that point, that controls the entire country west of Texas and North of Virginia.

Would FOX be willing to pay a per team SEC + Texas/OU level payout to achieve this?

Realistically, I don't see that happening at that scale.

That being said, it might be a good time for the Big Ten and Pac-12 to resurrect the partnership/alliance that ended up getting killed (by the Pac-12 side) a few years ago. That may honestly be better than any expansion option either league has right now.

It needs ND to work as I said in another thread. Also, I would still be courting UT & OU heavily with the above as the B1G. Adding UT, OU, USC & ND would be heavy brand power. It would seem the academics of that group would appeal a LOT more to UT.

Also, I would let UT bring along ANY regional partner UT chose to make it happen. Possibly 2. If the B1G permanently concedes the state of Texas to the SEC its a real bad 100 year decision for them. Being the secondary brand in Georgia and Florida doesn't compare to getting UT and having a punchers chance in the state of Texas or at least the top brand in the northern half of Texas.

B1G could add Kansas and West Virginia.

Both good rivals for those they already have in their divisions.

(07-22-2021 01:48 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  B1G could add Kansas and West Virginia.

Both good rivals for those they already have in their divisions.

W.Va. will never be allowed in to the B1G. That's a non-starter.

(07-22-2021 01:48 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  B1G could add Kansas and West Virginia.

Both good rivals for those they already have in their divisions.

No way will the Big 10 invite WVU. Kansas? Maybe, they are AAU I believe.

Can getting a new commissioner be at the top of the list? What an embarrassing drop-off from Delaney.

(07-22-2021 01:29 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:52 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:45 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:40 PM)Claw Wrote:  I really think Mizzou and Kansas to the B1G is the right move to build something that will last.

These big conferences got that way because they were put together correctly.

Long term, Mizzou and Kansas are the right move for the B1G.

The question for SEC #16 emerges. I think it'd be Oklahoma St.

Missouri isn't going to leave the SEC. But if they did, the replacement would be Florida State.

Alternatively, because there's about a 99% chance that football divisions will be unnecessary going forward, the SEC would not replace Missouri and would be very happy to divide its big pot of money 15 ways instead of 16.

College football as we have known it is gone. What makes long term sense is to build a stable geographic conference with the best academic schools you can get. Kansas and Mizzou fit that profile. I don't know if their vision is far enough out to see the benefit.

I agree with this.

However, the Big Ten won't poach Mizzou because they know that the SEC's response will be to add FSU. That puts the SEC even farther ahead.

The only way the Big Ten tries this is if they think FSU's departure will destabilize the ACC enough that UVA/UNC come to the Big Ten without any hangers-on. So it's a 2-part, 4 team move: KU and Mizzou in the West, then UVA and UNC in the East.

(07-22-2021 01:49 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:48 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  B1G could add Kansas and West Virginia.

Both good rivals for those they already have in their divisions.

W.Va. will never be allowed in to the B1G. That's a non-starter.

as much as I'd love to restart our annual Guidos vs Hillbillies rivalry, that's 100%