(07-21-2021 06:13 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I know we're all speculating in various threads about the fallout with the Big 12, but it is in some respect a separate discussion.

Let's presume that Texas and Oklahoma are leaving for the SEC and that they would leave for another league if the SEC refused for some reason.

The Big 12 is down to 8...

Does the league survive at all? Can they expand? Are they picked apart by other leagues?

Are there political implications?

I'll post my thoughts as a Big 12 fan.

1. For some arbitrary numbers from my mind only, there is an 80% chance that this is both legit and goes through, and a 20% that it isn't legit and fails.
Texas and OU seem well coordinated on all of this. The prompts responses, the non-denial denials, etc. all seem pretty cohesive with each other. To me, this reads like a planned move that has begun and will not be stopped. I expect them to play out the Big 12 contract and start fresh in the SEC during the next period. I don't believe TAMU is firmly against it, but I think their AD has to act that way to satisfy their fanbase. The 20% that comes into play is if this is some ploy to scare FOX to the negotiating table. They are about to lose the most valuable items in their second most valuable property to ESPN and this could be an outside shot at getting them to make the money work. I don't think that is the case, but I'll allow for the possibility. The other scenario this fails is if the programs fail to get enough votes to join the SEC. TAMU, Arkansas, Mizzou, and LSU could all be potential no's, as could some eastern schools faced with a divisional prospect of playing Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida every year. Again, I don't think you get this far without having the votes, but that would be the scenario that it fails.

2. The remaining Big 12's actions depends on the Pac-12, B1G, and ACC.
There is a large question over whether the remaining conferences would feel compelled to grab the Big 12 leftovers. Perhaps the B1G and ACC feel the need to keep pace, or the PAC is desperate to move into the Central Time zone. It is really hard to say as the motivating factors of the last round of realignment are no longer on the table. Making more money as a motivation hasn't changed, but how that happens certainly has. Cable is dying, cable subscriptions are down, you aren't going to see the B1G adding Rutgers type schools. The playoff is expanding, why add another competitor to your conference and muck up the path for your current teams. Why split the payoff by more mouths? There is a reason by the Big 12 and AAC have stood pat after losing members, adding members is not a guaranteed payday anymore. Unless the schools are worth it, why mess with the apple cart? There aren't two properties like OU and Texas available for the B1G to keep pace with the SEC. They might grab Kansas and Notre Dame perhaps in a scramble, but that doesn't really match the new SEC line-up. Why change at all?

If the Pac and B1G and the ACC grab their desired Big 12 pieces then you will see one or two Big 12 schools left out. My guess is likely some grouping of Baylor, TCU, KSU, and ISU, with Baylor being the most likely and ISU/KSU following closely behind. For the left overs, they can go to the AAC or MWC. I think the AAC lines up well with the leftovers as they will prove to be far better potential additions to the AAC lineup vs. UAB, Marshall, App State, Army, or Buffalo. For Baylor, I like the AAC with games against SMU and Houston and Memphis and Tulane.

If the Big 12 remainders are left alone, then I think you see them pick up some of the AAC and the MWC. I think you can expect Cincy, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Tulane, CSU, BYU, UCF, to top the list. I think that this would be a great conference and competitive with the Pac and ACC, even if a solid fifth in the pecking order.

3. Political Implications in Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma.
The Big 8 schools that might get left behind by their brethren will raise a shitfit. Baylor and Tech don't have the political will and energy to start kicking rocks again IMO. I might be surprised, but both institutions aren't in a position to wield the same clout that they had in previous realignment circumstances.

(07-21-2021 07:23 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

They can call but if they aren't increasing the Big 10's bottom line it will be a short phone call.

ACC could be another buyer. WVU would want in, but the feeling may not be mutual. If Big 12 goes West does a jilted WVU approach the AAC?

(07-21-2021 07:21 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 07:17 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 07:09 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

Any school not in the SEC and Big Ten is making phone calls.

I don’t think Clemson and Florida State like Florida and South Carolina getting richer.

Are you sure about this? I can imaging Ohio State and Michigan are calling Birmingham at this moment.

I don’t think so. Those two are not a fit culturally.

I still believe Texas and Oklahoma are using this to get more money from ESPN and FOX.

I just remember the PAC 16 being a done deal until is wasn't.

This has legs but with Texas you just never know

(07-21-2021 07:21 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Even in the worst case scenario the Big 12 has obvious expansion options: BYU, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati.

It would still be competitive with the Pac-12 for payouts on TV money.

Are you kidding me? Who are you paying for? The Pac 12 is the undisputed top conference in California, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah. The Big 12? Kansas and West Virginia. Texas? Would be a distant 2nd to the SEC. Oklahoma? Same (and Oklahoma is smaller than Texas and many of the Pac 12 states). Iowa? 2nd fiddle to the Big 12. There isn't a school that they can take that can win them any state. They can get into Florida (UCF and/or USF) or Ohio (Cincinnati) or Tennessee (Memphis) or expand their presence in Texas (Houston and/or SMU) but they'll still play 2nd fiddle.

Eyeballs on TVs are what generate bucks from TV contracts. Feel free to compare viewership numbers.

I just don’t see any value in The Big 12 for The ACC.
WVU simply doesn’t move the needle. (If you’ve been around here for a 10 or 12 years, you’ll get the point)

(07-21-2021 07:33 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 07:21 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Even in the worst case scenario the Big 12 has obvious expansion options: BYU, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati.

It would still be competitive with the Pac-12 for payouts on TV money.

Are you kidding me? Who are you paying for? The Pac 12 is the undisputed top conference in California, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah. The Big 12? Kansas and West Virginia. Texas? Would be a distant 2nd to the SEC. Oklahoma? Same (and Oklahoma is smaller than Texas and many of the Pac 12 states). Iowa? 2nd fiddle to the Big 12. There isn't a school that they can take that can win them any state. They can get into Florida (UCF and/or USF) or Ohio (Cincinnati) or Tennessee (Memphis) or expand their presence in Texas (Houston and/or SMU) but they'll still play 2nd fiddle.

Eyeballs on TVs are what generate bucks from TV contracts. Feel free to compare viewership numbers.

If you're going to do that, you'll have to use only Big 12 games that don't involve Oklahoma or Texas. Good luck finding games that match the top Pac 12 games (and we're talking the Pac 12 here).

I don’t think the timing is right for KU for a number of reasons (bad football, NCAA sanctions).

So I’m guessing they remain in the B12 and they add 4 (to get to 12) from Cinci (a lock), Colorado St, UCF and BYU. Those 4 would make for a pretty strong league TV and market wise. In an 8 team playoff they’d have access to the big money games.

Small chance … but…

You know how no one likes Texas.

If Texas is gone… what if the B12 poaches A&M back and NEBRASKA!!!!!

They won’t want to dilute what’s left of the conference any more than they have to. I think the most likely backfill choice would be Cincinnati, a solid add on its own merits and a good travel partner for WVU. They could stop there or get back to 10 with Houston for all sports or BYU for football only.

(07-21-2021 06:40 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The Big 12 would survive. As I suggested in the other thread, the best strategic move would be for them to add four of the strongest AAC programs, in order to insure a huge gap between the new Big 12 and the AAC.

But we don't know for sure who they would invite. University presidents make these decisions and might have other considerations, like their biases, or the biases of their major donors, or their personal ties to any of the schools that might be considered as candidates.

That would seem to be the way to go. The key question is, how much value would ESPN and Fox see in a Big 12 without UT and OU, but with Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and USF?

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

I tend to agree with you. On the other hand what if the teams in the AAC stand pat. They have a good thing going.

Colorado St has the stadium to go XII but historically they are only an average MWC FB/BB program.

I think academics will take a backseat if UT is no longer in the conference. They need exciting names like Memphis to compete against. Kansas vs. Memphis or OSU vs. Memphis would be big games in basketball. Same with Cincinnati.

They've got to get back into the Houston market which that lost when TAMU left and its finally time to get TAMU. SMU would also not be bad for travel.

Hit the AAC hard and keep travel reasonable. Taking Houston, SMU, Memphis, UC will put the AAC out of business.

There will probably be more moves down the line. If the ACC takes a hit they'll probably have WVU on speed dial. Then UCF/USF make sense for the XII if one of them is still available.

Like someone said above, the 1st question that needs to be answered, is what do the other P5 do in response to the SEC move to 16? if the 3 of them start adding teams to match the 16 number, The big 12 is dead.

If the other P5 dont move to 16, the the remaining big 12 should be able to survive by adding from the top performing G5. next question is how many top teams is needed to give the perception of a good conference. adding 4? or 6?

(07-21-2021 07:47 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Small chance … but…

You know how no one likes Texas.

If Texas is gone… what if the B12 poaches A&M back and NEBRASKA!!!!!

Fat chance! TAMU loves the SEC and, without Oklahoma, Nebraska has no reason to rejoin the Big 12.

Maybe the Big Ten poaches Missouri and Kansas before UT and OU join the SEC. Maybe.

You just don't know.

This is reminding me of the last days of the old Big East, where certain fans were in deep denial and began making posts like, "Hey! I got an idea: let's get the old gang back together again!" "More football!" "No, more basketball!"

Things happen for a reason, even if we don't like 'em.

(07-21-2021 08:06 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

I tend to agree with you. On the other hand what if the teams in the AAC stand pat. They have a good thing going.

1. XII has legal A status, AAC doesn't.
2. AAC has Temple, ECU, Tulane and Tulsa, nobody that athletically weak in the XII.
3. Playing schools in your own time zone for Houston, SMU and Memphis.
4. More legacy income in the XII (e.g. tournament credits).
5. Stronger bowl games than the AAC lineup.
6. More media income grouping in with the XII.
7. Larger overall budgets than in the AAC.
8. Ability to schedule better non-conference games.

It would definitely be a step up for anyone in the AAC when you are playing names like Kansas and Baylor in BB or Oklahoma St and Kansas St in football.

(07-21-2021 08:14 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  Like someone said above, the 1st question that needs to be answered, is what do the other P5 do in response to the SEC move to 16? if the 3 of them start adding teams to match the 16 number, The big 12 is dead.

If the other P5 dont move to 16, the the remaining big 12 should be able to survive by adding from the top performing G5. next question is how many top teams is needed to give the perception of a good conference. adding 4? or 6?

XII going back to 12 would help.

I said SMU but the more I think about it you need UCF for Florida bowl games. Clean out the AAC with UCF, Houston, Memphis and UC who've all appeared in CFP bowls.

If history is any indication, the MAC will be the one conference that won’t be affected. They might offer a temporary refuge to one or two schools for football only like they did to UCF, Temple and UMass but they’ll still keep their Midwest core.

(07-21-2021 08:38 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  If history is any indication, the MAC will be the one conference that won’t be affected. They might offer a temporary refuge to one or two schools for football only like they did to UCF, Temple and UMass but they’ll still keep their Midwest core.

MAC would be positively affected by the AAC getting knocked down to size.

Going out of business entirely even better.

(07-21-2021 08:47 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 08:38 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  If history is any indication, the MAC will be the one conference that won’t be affected. They might offer a temporary refuge to one or two schools for football only like they did to UCF, Temple and UMass but they’ll still keep their Midwest core.

MAC would be positively affected by the AAC getting knocked down to size.

Going out of business entirely even better.

Many MAC schools have bigger things to worry about - like whether they'll even be around in a decade.

If Kansas is poached, they'll add three.

If Kansas isn't wanted by the other power conference, they'll add two.

10 will be the number. They won't want to dilute the TV money.

Cincinnati and Houston would be my guesses if 2. BYU would be my guess if 3.