(07-21-2021 04:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

IMO, that would be like Spud Webb trying to go for I don't know, 2002 Shaq's jugular.

The PAC schools would have zero reason to break up their conference to play with a bunch of midwest low-value losers.

What up Holmes? I only wanted to remind you that back in the day, you could beat Mike Tyson with lil’ Mac! ?

(07-21-2021 04:11 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  If conferences go to 16, I can see them dropping divisions for 4-5 permanent opponents and more games with the rest of the group. Top 2 play in the title game.

Four pods , that rotate as divisions every year. Actually increases play cross division. Play every team in your pod, every team in one pod each year (your division), and either one team in each of the Other divisions (if nine conference games), or just one of them. Pretty easy schedule to work out.

(07-21-2021 04:22 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  It comes down to, if you were USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona who would you rather play and who would offer the most TV money

would it be more profitable to play:
Washington St, Oregon St, Arizona St, and Utah
OR
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, WVU

The former is status quo while the latter opens up a whole new timezone and TV opportunity.

While its not the PAC 16 Larry Scott envisioned, I think it would better help keep pace with the Big 10 and SEC. With the need for the Rose Bowl dying in an expanded college football playoff, why isolate yourself to the west coast?

Arizona St is the most valuable of these 12 schools. So while the 8 XII schools might be more valuable than WSU/OSU, the PAC schools would probably just stick with splitting it 12 ways and keeping ASU over splitting it 16 ways and losing ASU.

Are we counting when jake Plummer was there? The answer is Kansas without hesitation. Next question…

(07-21-2021 04:26 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:00 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)micahandme Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:34 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I can't speak for the Big 10 but if Oklahoma and Texas do go to the SEC and I were in charge of the Big 10, I'm not going to bail out Iowa State, Kansas, or anyone else in the Big 12 and I have no need to expand to 16 just to keep up with the SEC. Adding two extra members means cutting the pie into two extra slices. If the two are Texas and Oklahoma, the pie gets bigger and the slices are still bigger overall. If the two are Iowa State and Kansas or any other Big 12 pair, the pie isn't likely going to get bigger and the slices overall will be smaller so why should the Big 10 add anyone? If FOX, ESPN, CBS, etc will offer us a proportional increase for two Big 12 members, I'll listen. Otherwise, no deal.

Agreed.

If the ACC is locked down and the Big Ten can't crack UVA or UNC free, there's no one even in the stratosphere of OU/UT for acadmics/sports.

What if the Big Ten countered the SEC move by landing Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia?

Doesn't that still fall under the category of "ACC is locked down"?

But assuming the ACC isn't locked down, that would be a mammoth move for the Big 10 but not the same category as OU/UT to the SEC.

We’ve always discussed here how grants of rights, as soon as their challenged in court, have so many issues they’ll never hold up. That said the issue is the ACC teams in question. By and large, really don’t want to compete with teams with budgets so much larger then their own. More money means little if it means you have to spend the difference plus more to compete…

(07-21-2021 04:54 PM)usffan Wrote:  I was told that this was impossible: https://csnbbs.com/thread-833387-post-14...id14794074

(11-18-2017 12:53 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 06:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  (lots of longwindedness snipped)

An announcement in 2023 for movement in 2025 doesn't require a vote and meets Big 12 guidelines. Even an announcement in 2021 for departure in 2023 doesn't leave a penalty too large for the departing to pay. And that kind of movement can happen with any number of schools.

the part in bold is 100% incorrect

the Big 12 has two contracts they have the GOR that ends at the same time the Big 12 TV contract ends and that has NO PROVISIONS FOR LEAVING THE CONFERENCE

the GOR has no notification requirement and it has no penalties and it has no option for giving advanced notification and or paying any amount of money to leave with media rights before te end of the contract and that is 100% by design

the Big 12 ALSO has a contract for conference membership that is 99 years in length from 2012 and that contract for conference membership DOES have a notification requirement and it has a penalty for leaving the conference, BUT it makes clear that giving that notification and paying that penalty does not exempt one from the GOR and it does not invalidate the GOR

and more importantly that Big 12 contract for conference membership requires that any member that is contacts OR IS CONTACTED by another party about leaving the conference is required to notify the conference of that contact within 12 days AND to formally submit a declining letter to that offer and failing to do so puts that member in violation of the contract for conference membership

so the REALITY is there is ZERO chance that 8 members of the Big 12 are all going to get together, all agree to go out and make contact with other conferences AND gain a guarantee to be admitted to those other conferences all within 12 days time

there will be SEVERAL of those members that will not be confident in the fact that they will get an offer from another conference that will be close to what they have in the Big 12 and they are not going to agree to COLLUDE to try and collapse the conference especially if they only LEGALLY have 12 days to do so before they MUST notify the conference or be subjected to legal recourse

and even IF it was possible that 8 of those members would agree to that it would still be next to impossible that they could all find a conference to admit them, get things squared away with that conference and the media partners AND do so within 12 days

and as soon as that 12 days passes and they do not make notification to the 2 members they are attempting to screw and leave behind they WILL absolutely be guilty of collusion and they will be restricted at that point on what votes and actions they can take dealing with the Big 12 and more importantly when it comes to the collusion when they get to court and it is proven that 8 members colluded to kill the conference and did so in violation of the rules calling for 12 days to notify the conference about ANY contact to switch conferences AND to LEGALLY DECLINE that offer well the ones that colluded will be subjected to treble damages

the Big 12 contract for conference membership calls for a forfeiture of the last two years of conference payouts for any member that is leaving which at the time of the final years of the GOR will be about $45 million per year or about $90 million per member leaving

even IF that could be negotiated down as it has been in the past the FACT is that if 8 teams get together and violate the 12 day rules of notification in the contract there is ZERO chance that the two remaining members are going to be looking to negotiate anything down and more importantly as soon as it is proven that the 12 day notification and DECLINE rule was violated AND that there was collusion on the part of 8 other members there would be ZERO reason for those members to negotiate anything down because with the collusion would come a near automatic treble damages or $270 million due per member that colluded to leave the conference and violated the 12 day notification and DECLINE requirement in the contract

there is a ZERO chance that you are going to have 8 conference members, several conferences and a couple of networks get together in 12 days work everything out and keep it a secret and after it goes past 12 days there is NO CHANCE that all involved are going to risk felony perjury to go to court and have all those people from all those organizations one after the other perjure themselves in court to say that "no we did not get together to collude to kill the conference and yes we did all that in fewer than 12 days"

so one can PRETEND that 8 teams in the Big 12 would agree to work together to either switch conferences in 12 days or less and one can pretend that they would actually make that happen in 12 days or less if those 8 teams agreed to that, but that is simply not going to happen

and one can pretend that when it takes longer than 12 days that several dozens of people will all get together and go to court and agree to testify that they got it all done in 12 days when they did not, but that will not happen either

and lastly one would be void of reality if they believed that two members of the Big 12 that were looking at getting $90 million in exit fees from the Big 12 and that have now proven collusion and are due 3X damages would work to negotiate that down "just because things like that happen"

no two members of the Big 12 that get screwed by 8 others in a collusion case that would be EASY to prove would have any reason to take less than the full $270 million PER OTHER MEMBER that colluded against them

and it is highly highly unlikely that any court would look at that easily proven case of collusion and the CLEAR contract language and reduce those 3X damages because there are not courts out there anywhere that view collusion fondly or as "something to negotiate away"

so again it is VERY CLEAR in the 99 year Big 12 contract for conference membership that any team that is contracted or makes contact to ANYONE about leaving the Big 12 has 12 days to notify the conference AND to decline that overture

and failure to do so puts them in violation of that contract and subjected to penalties and limited conference participation in conference business

no one that is sane would believe that 8 members of the Big 12 would think they could ALL gain a SOLID LEGAL new conference membership in 12 days or that they would want to, believe they could or that they actually would get away with colluding to violate that 12 day notification AND DECLINE requirement

the fact is there would be a ton of $35,000 to $45,000 a year people involved in that from multiple organizations and many of them are going to be smart enough to know that annual pay is not worth getting a felony perjury charge and then how would it be possible to make contracts with conferences and TV partners and falsify the dates on those contracts so it appears everything was done in 12 days or less

and when you have publicly traded TV partners well there are even more laws with the SEC (Securities Exchange not the SEC SEC SEC) and general business laws that would but a lot of people in serious legal jeopardy if they were trying to falsify the dates that legal contracts were signed so that when those contracts were brought to court it appeared as though they were all completed in a 12 day window even though they were actually finalized weeks or months later

one needs their head examined if they think that university presidents and inside and outside legal counsel are going to look at a 12 day notice tell the Big 12 about ANY contact to switch conferences AND TO DECLINE THAT CONTACT LEGALLY and they will think "yea lets get with 7 other Big 12 members and several conferences and some TV partners and just ignore that 12 day rule as a group of 8 while we leave two other members screwed and yea we can just negotiate away that $90 million in exit fees and the triple damages for collusion and skate by on all the perjury charges as well I think we can pull that off in secret the risk is well worth it"

all the more so when at least 4 of those members would be thinking they have little chance of finding a new home that is worth a damn and at least a couple of them would have to think they were being set up to be screwed as well

USFFan

Consider the source. He ranks third behind david and Buck among worst posters ever on this board…

(07-21-2021 05:19 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 05:17 PM)johnintx Wrote:  Kirk Bohls
@kbohls
I'm told Texas A&M and Missouri would be a hard no. Only 2 more needed to block an invitation to Texas, OU.

https://twitter.com/kbohls/status/1417969714878468101

JR's A&M sabotage theory is a possibility. OTOH, A&M and Mizzou are the new kids on the block, and won't have any say in the matter.

Why would they have no say? They are voting members of the SEC. I thought you needed a 3/4 vote - that's 11 of the 14 meaning you need 4 to block as if that would happen.

Because they need two more to make their voices matter. That’s a hard thing to get

Well according to the article, it was Texas and Oklahoma that reached out to the SEC as opposed to the other way around. So it implies the two schools are being proactive and they can just as easily approach the Big 10 as they can approach the SEC if a deal with the SEC falls through.

(07-21-2021 06:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:07 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It's kinda impressive to think about how many losers OU and Texas moving creates.

Let's say they went to the SEC. The following teams would never again see the light of day in the reorganized SEC divisions: Miss State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri. Let's say you're in the SEC East. You'd need UGAg, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee to all be down at the same time. Let's say you're in the SEC West. You'd need Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Oklahoma to all be down at the same time. The Big 12 would obviously be thrown into chaos. Every G5 would be in limbo pending the dominoes higher up. The Pac-12 would fall closer to the average G5 than the average P5. The Big 12 wouldn't be much better than that. The ACC would still be an awkward tweener between the SEC and B1G and everybody else. The B1G would be permanently at a cash disadvantage unless it was willing to cast off lesser members and somehow expand with top notch merchandise (ND and little else works). I would also assume the NCAA dies even more rapidly if this happens given that Sankey uses the NCAA as his personal gym speed bag on every presser at this point.

If true, it's a massive short term cash in for the SEC. A disproportionate cash advantage over the rest of the field. Vanderbilt would be able to outhire UNC and Duke for basketball coaches.... and basketball assistants.... and build better facilities.... just by being a loser doormat in football every year. It would be interesting over the medium term to see what top end fanbases end up getting whittled away at and dieing. Simple math says if Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, TN, UF, and UGAg are all in the same conference they can't all do well. Some of them are going to be staring at steady diet of 8-4/7-5/6-6 for the rest of their lives. You don't keep filling up 100k stadiums going to the Poulan Weedeater Bowl every year. That's how you downgrade those programs and bleed them out.

Respectfully, all of that is nonsense. With a 12 team playoff that includes 6 at large teams the SEC will have about 5 winners per year.

That comment raises an interesting question: Everyone who was ready to support a 12-team playoff, are they *still* going to support it if UT and OU join the SEC?

If people outside the SEC think that the SEC might snag 4 of those 6 at-large spots every year, are they really going to vote for that? Or are they going to say, "Nah, let's just keep the playoff we already have."

The quote from Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard a few years ago about the Big 12 minus Texas/Oklahoma being the Mountain West seems to be coming to fruition


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(07-21-2021 06:11 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 05:25 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 05:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:58 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Ugh. The rich get richer.

So if this were to occur, I think we'd see the SEC move to 4-team pods:

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

None of the remaining power conferences (now the P4) make any moves. The Big 12 restocks with Cincinnati and UCF, the AAC restocks with UAB (or falls apart entirely), and CUSA stands pat. Boring realignment. Wasted opportunity.

If they do rotating pods, that line up makes the sense.

As far as the Big 12 restock goes, I think your 6 top players are:

Houston
UCF
Cincinnati
USF
BYU
Memphis

I suspect they will keep things small and stick with 9 or 10 members.

The American survives but only restocks to 10 members.

XII adding Houston is the best way to get back at Texas for leaving.

Going all the way back to 12 is possible. Houston, SMU, Memphis and Cincinnati.

The AAC is going to take a big hit. Who is going to join Wichita, Tulsa, Tulane, UCF, USF, ECU and Temple in a conference? Travel with those 7 is terrible. Wichita can go back to the MVC or join the MWC. The MWC would be a stronger football conference moving forward at that point.

Wichita doesn't care about football - it would be which is the better BB conference - the dried husk of the AAC, the MVC, or the Mountain West?

Probably the MWC I'd imagine and with the most TV deal potential.

AAC will have to negotiate its TV deal downwards, even if it loses two members. Losing 4 members would be devastating. I don't know if Temple, UCF, USF if left behind could tolerate it.

The remaining AAC members could collect the exit fees and then vote to dissolve the conference at a later time. Give it a year or two to see if there are more moves first.

SMU/Tulsa at least have the MWC as an escape route if they don't get into the XII.

Their contract is almost irrelevant enough to the bottom line of Disney that it likely wouldn’t even be touched.
Is what it is

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)danieldemer Wrote:  I'm trying to wrap my head around the logic people are using that the Big 12 will fall apart without Oklahoma/Texas and that Baylor (who just won the national championship in basketball) and TCU would be left out of any expansion from the remaining P4 because of their religious affiliation.

Sent from my SM-G996U1 using Tapatalk

I don’t think the Big 12 will fall apart in the sense of completely going away. Even without Texas and Oklahoma (or even Kansas on top of them), it’s still much stronger than any G5 conference at a minimum. They’ll also have exit fees and other financial incentives (such as NCAA Tournament credits) to entice schools from the AAC or MWC (or BYU). They would be sort of like the Big East football conference after the first ACC raid with Miami, VT and BC: a really good league on-the-field, but no headliner mega-brand names.

(07-21-2021 06:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:07 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It's kinda impressive to think about how many losers OU and Texas moving creates.

Let's say they went to the SEC. The following teams would never again see the light of day in the reorganized SEC divisions: Miss State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri. Let's say you're in the SEC East. You'd need UGAg, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee to all be down at the same time. Let's say you're in the SEC West. You'd need Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Oklahoma to all be down at the same time. The Big 12 would obviously be thrown into chaos. Every G5 would be in limbo pending the dominoes higher up. The Pac-12 would fall closer to the average G5 than the average P5. The Big 12 wouldn't be much better than that. The ACC would still be an awkward tweener between the SEC and B1G and everybody else. The B1G would be permanently at a cash disadvantage unless it was willing to cast off lesser members and somehow expand with top notch merchandise (ND and little else works). I would also assume the NCAA dies even more rapidly if this happens given that Sankey uses the NCAA as his personal gym speed bag on every presser at this point.

If true, it's a massive short term cash in for the SEC. A disproportionate cash advantage over the rest of the field. Vanderbilt would be able to outhire UNC and Duke for basketball coaches.... and basketball assistants.... and build better facilities.... just by being a loser doormat in football every year. It would be interesting over the medium term to see what top end fanbases end up getting whittled away at and dieing. Simple math says if Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, TN, UF, and UGAg are all in the same conference they can't all do well. Some of them are going to be staring at steady diet of 8-4/7-5/6-6 for the rest of their lives. You don't keep filling up 100k stadiums going to the Poulan Weedeater Bowl every year. That's how you downgrade those programs and bleed them out.

Respectfully, all of that is nonsense. With a 12 team playoff that includes 6 at large teams the SEC will have about 5 winners per year.

And the ACC title game will always be between FSU and Miami so let's make it in FL. What sounds great today may sound terrible in 10 years. Ask Nebraska. Or Maryland. Or John Swofford. I don't care what the membership of the SEC is, if the Dawgs go 8-4 a few years against stiff competition the fanbase will consume the administration before they break through to a Natty. All it takes is whiffing on a QB once. Maybe have his stellar backup transfer and go win a Natty somewhere else....

(07-21-2021 06:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:07 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It's kinda impressive to think about how many losers OU and Texas moving creates.

Let's say they went to the SEC. The following teams would never again see the light of day in the reorganized SEC divisions: Miss State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri. Let's say you're in the SEC East. You'd need UGAg, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee to all be down at the same time. Let's say you're in the SEC West. You'd need Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Oklahoma to all be down at the same time. The Big 12 would obviously be thrown into chaos. Every G5 would be in limbo pending the dominoes higher up. The Pac-12 would fall closer to the average G5 than the average P5. The Big 12 wouldn't be much better than that. The ACC would still be an awkward tweener between the SEC and B1G and everybody else. The B1G would be permanently at a cash disadvantage unless it was willing to cast off lesser members and somehow expand with top notch merchandise (ND and little else works). I would also assume the NCAA dies even more rapidly if this happens given that Sankey uses the NCAA as his personal gym speed bag on every presser at this point.

If true, it's a massive short term cash in for the SEC. A disproportionate cash advantage over the rest of the field. Vanderbilt would be able to outhire UNC and Duke for basketball coaches.... and basketball assistants.... and build better facilities.... just by being a loser doormat in football every year. It would be interesting over the medium term to see what top end fanbases end up getting whittled away at and dieing. Simple math says if Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, TN, UF, and UGAg are all in the same conference they can't all do well. Some of them are going to be staring at steady diet of 8-4/7-5/6-6 for the rest of their lives. You don't keep filling up 100k stadiums going to the Poulan Weedeater Bowl every year. That's how you downgrade those programs and bleed them out.

Respectfully, all of that is nonsense. With a 12 team playoff that includes 6 at large teams the SEC will have about 5 winners per year.

That comment raises an interesting question: Everyone who was ready to support a 12-team playoff, are they *still* going to support it if UT and OU join the SEC?

If people outside the SEC think that the SEC might snag 4 of those 6 at-large spots every year, are they really going to vote for that? Or are they going to say, "Nah, let's just keep the playoff we already have."

Let's be honest. The SEC with OU and UT will be the conference holding the pen when the new rules are being written.

I hope The ACC passes on WVU.

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)danieldemer Wrote:  I'm trying to wrap my head around the logic people are using that the Big 12 will fall apart without Oklahoma/Texas and that Baylor (who just won the national championship in basketball) and TCU would be left out of any expansion from the remaining P4 because of their religious affiliation.

I don't think the Big 12 will necessarily fall apart if OU and TX leave. They may very well carry on, and pick up a couple teams from the AAC and/or MW to fill those spots.

But I am very confident they will not continue to be a "P" league. It is TX and OU that give the Big 12 their "P" status, and without it that will be lost. TV dollars will shrink dramatically, and in the next iteration of playoffs, they will be sidelined from any guaranteed spots in major bowls or playoffs.

As for TCU and Baylor, I don't think they would be left out of P4 realignment due to religious affiliation. They will IMO be left out just because they don't bring enough value to the PAC, B1G or ACC to be invited.

(07-21-2021 06:34 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I hope The ACC passes on WVU.

Eh, we could use a close opponent. I’m also realizing I’ve likely blocked out the reality of then they come to town due to cocktails today

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 04:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

IMO, that would be like Spud Webb trying to go for I don't know, 2002 Shaq's jugular.

The PAC schools would have zero reason to break up their conference to play with a bunch of midwest low-value losers.

What up Holmes? I only wanted to remind you that back in the day, you could beat Mike Tyson with lil’ Mac! ?

An Adcorbett sighting! Hooray!

(07-21-2021 06:34 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:07 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It's kinda impressive to think about how many losers OU and Texas moving creates.

Let's say they went to the SEC. The following teams would never again see the light of day in the reorganized SEC divisions: Miss State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri. Let's say you're in the SEC East. You'd need UGAg, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee to all be down at the same time. Let's say you're in the SEC West. You'd need Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Oklahoma to all be down at the same time. The Big 12 would obviously be thrown into chaos. Every G5 would be in limbo pending the dominoes higher up. The Pac-12 would fall closer to the average G5 than the average P5. The Big 12 wouldn't be much better than that. The ACC would still be an awkward tweener between the SEC and B1G and everybody else. The B1G would be permanently at a cash disadvantage unless it was willing to cast off lesser members and somehow expand with top notch merchandise (ND and little else works). I would also assume the NCAA dies even more rapidly if this happens given that Sankey uses the NCAA as his personal gym speed bag on every presser at this point.

If true, it's a massive short term cash in for the SEC. A disproportionate cash advantage over the rest of the field. Vanderbilt would be able to outhire UNC and Duke for basketball coaches.... and basketball assistants.... and build better facilities.... just by being a loser doormat in football every year. It would be interesting over the medium term to see what top end fanbases end up getting whittled away at and dieing. Simple math says if Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, TN, UF, and UGAg are all in the same conference they can't all do well. Some of them are going to be staring at steady diet of 8-4/7-5/6-6 for the rest of their lives. You don't keep filling up 100k stadiums going to the Poulan Weedeater Bowl every year. That's how you downgrade those programs and bleed them out.

Respectfully, all of that is nonsense. With a 12 team playoff that includes 6 at large teams the SEC will have about 5 winners per year.

That comment raises an interesting question: Everyone who was ready to support a 12-team playoff, are they *still* going to support it if UT and OU join the SEC?

If people outside the SEC think that the SEC might snag 4 of those 6 at-large spots every year, are they really going to vote for that? Or are they going to say, "Nah, let's just keep the playoff we already have."

Let's be honest. The SEC with OU and UT will be the conference holding the pen when the new rules are being written.

Because a ploy to create a near monopoly in sports by almost entirely public institutions won't create political backlash. I'm sure there's no history of that happening before already for much less dramatic realignment moves.

(07-21-2021 06:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)danieldemer Wrote:  I'm trying to wrap my head around the logic people are using that the Big 12 will fall apart without Oklahoma/Texas and that Baylor (who just won the national championship in basketball) and TCU would be left out of any expansion from the remaining P4 because of their religious affiliation.

I don't think the Big 12 will necessarily fall apart if OU and TX leave. They may very well carry on, and pick up a couple teams from the AAC and/or MW to fill those spots.

But I am very confident they will not continue to be a "P" league. It is TX and OU that give the Big 12 their "P" status, and without it that will be lost. TV dollars will shrink dramatically, and in the next iteration of playoffs, they will be sidelined from any guaranteed spots in major bowls or playoffs.

As for TCU and Baylor, I don't think they would be left out of P4 realignment due to religious affiliation. They will IMO be left out just because they don't bring enough value to the PAC, B1G or ACC to be invited.

Keep in mind, there are plenty of faith based schools in the power 5. The only schools who may have a hard time due to religion are BYU and Baylor, for many different reason beyond being private and faith based

(07-21-2021 06:34 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I hope The ACC passes on WVU.

If push came to shove WVU would be part of the restructuring pieces for the ACC. And don't think strictly in terms of addition through addition. Pushing comes to shove likely means a change in the relationship for Wake Forest and maybe a few others.

(07-21-2021 06:23 PM)goofus Wrote:  Forget the P4, FBS is clearly splitting into Tiers

Tier1
SEC (with Tex, Ok),

Tier2
Big Ten

Tier3
ACC, PAC, ND

Tier4
Big 12 (with BYU, Hou, Cincy, USF, UCF)

Tier5
AAC, MWC

Tier6
MAC, CUSA, SBC

I see a more of gradual ranking.

1. SEC (adds OU/UT)
2. B1G
3. ACC
4. PAC
5. XII (adds BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis)
6. MWC (adds SMU, Rice)
7. AAC (adds UAB, ODU)
8. SBC
9. MAC
10. CUSA (stays at 12)

AAC will have a smaller TV deal if than the MWC if they lost SMU, Houston, Cincinnati and Rice. They stay ahead of the MWC if they only lose 2 and don't have to backfill.

I’m sorry, if Texas and Oklahoma want to join the conference, The SEC will tell A&M, Missouri and whoever else objects to STFU.

I would think it'd be difficult for OU to go anywhere without Oklahoma St. Perhaps Mizzou could move to the Big Ten with Kansas, then Texas, OU and OSU join the SEC.

I wonder if a move to 9 conference games is also in the cards? That would ensure that if they kept an East/West division split that you’d see every school once every 4 years.

(07-21-2021 06:34 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:07 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It's kinda impressive to think about how many losers OU and Texas moving creates.

Let's say they went to the SEC. The following teams would never again see the light of day in the reorganized SEC divisions: Miss State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri. Let's say you're in the SEC East. You'd need UGAg, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee to all be down at the same time. Let's say you're in the SEC West. You'd need Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Oklahoma to all be down at the same time. The Big 12 would obviously be thrown into chaos. Every G5 would be in limbo pending the dominoes higher up. The Pac-12 would fall closer to the average G5 than the average P5. The Big 12 wouldn't be much better than that. The ACC would still be an awkward tweener between the SEC and B1G and everybody else. The B1G would be permanently at a cash disadvantage unless it was willing to cast off lesser members and somehow expand with top notch merchandise (ND and little else works). I would also assume the NCAA dies even more rapidly if this happens given that Sankey uses the NCAA as his personal gym speed bag on every presser at this point.

If true, it's a massive short term cash in for the SEC. A disproportionate cash advantage over the rest of the field. Vanderbilt would be able to outhire UNC and Duke for basketball coaches.... and basketball assistants.... and build better facilities.... just by being a loser doormat in football every year. It would be interesting over the medium term to see what top end fanbases end up getting whittled away at and dieing. Simple math says if Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, TN, UF, and UGAg are all in the same conference they can't all do well. Some of them are going to be staring at steady diet of 8-4/7-5/6-6 for the rest of their lives. You don't keep filling up 100k stadiums going to the Poulan Weedeater Bowl every year. That's how you downgrade those programs and bleed them out.

Respectfully, all of that is nonsense. With a 12 team playoff that includes 6 at large teams the SEC will have about 5 winners per year.

That comment raises an interesting question: Everyone who was ready to support a 12-team playoff, are they *still* going to support it if UT and OU join the SEC?

If people outside the SEC think that the SEC might snag 4 of those 6 at-large spots every year, are they really going to vote for that? Or are they going to say, "Nah, let's just keep the playoff we already have."

Let's be honest. The SEC with OU and UT will be the conference holding the pen when the new rules are being written.

There are already rules in place. Unless everyone agrees, those rules stay in place for 5 more seasons. And after that, there's no playoff at all unless everyone agrees. The Big Ten, among others, isn't going to sign up for a playoff that reduces them to a bit player. If that's the only playoff on offer, they'd just as soon go back to bowls-and-polls.