Using the rules of the newly proposed expanded CFP. Any questions, please ask!



Total number of bids by conference
65: SEC
49: Big Ten
48: Big 12
38: Pac-10/12
28: ACC
17: Big East/AAC (12 as AQ, 5 as G5)
10: MWC
7: I-A/FBS Ind (all ND), WAC
4: MAC
2: CUSA
1: Sun Belt
0: Big West

Total number of bids by school
17: Ohio St.
16: Oklahoma
12: Alabama, Florida
11: LSU
10: Florida St., Georgia, Oregon
9: USC
8: Boise St., Kansas St., Notre Dame, TCU, Wisconsin
7: Clemson, Penn St., Texas
6: Auburn, Miami-FL, Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech
5: Michigan St.
4: Iowa, Nebraska, Tennessee, Washington
3: Arkansas, Baylor, Cincinnati, Missouri, Texas A&M, UCF, Utah
2: Arizona, Colorado, Louisville, South Carolina, West Virginia
1: Arizona St., California, CCU, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa St., Kansas, Marshall, Maryland, Memphis, Miami-OH, Mississippi St., NIU, North Carolina, Oklahoma St., Ole Miss, Oregon St., Texas Tech, Tulane, UCLA, Virginia, Washington St., WMU

(06-11-2021 02:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Using the rules of the newly proposed expanded CFP. Any questions, please ask!



Total number of bids by conference
65: SEC
49: Big Ten
48: Big 12
38: Pac-10/12
28: ACC
17: Big East/AAC (12 as AQ, 5 as G5)
10: MWC
7: I-A/FBS Ind (all ND), WAC
4: MAC
2: CUSA
1: Sun Belt
0: Big West

Total number of bids by school
17: Ohio St.
16: Oklahoma
12: Alabama, Florida
11: LSU
10: Florida St., Georgia, Oregon
9: USC
8: Boise St., Kansas St., Notre Dame, TCU, Wisconsin
7: Clemson, Penn St., Texas
6: Auburn, Miami-FL, Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech
5: Michigan St.
4: Iowa, Nebraska, Tennessee, Washington
3: Arkansas, Baylor, Cincinnati, Missouri, Texas A&M, UCF, Utah
2: Arizona, Colorado, Louisville, South Carolina, West Virginia
1: Arizona St., California, CCU, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa St., Kansas, Marshall, Maryland, Memphis, Miami-OH, Mississippi St., NIU, North Carolina, Oklahoma St., Ole Miss, Oregon St., Texas Tech, Tulane, UCLA, Virginia, Washington St., WMU

It seems we were working on the very same thing at the same time.

(06-11-2021 02:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It seems we were working on the very same thing at the same time.

So we were! I spent about 5 or 6 hours on this. How about you?

(06-11-2021 02:23 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 02:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It seems we were working on the very same thing at the same time.

So we were! I spent about 5 or 6 hours on this. How about you?

About 2, but I didn’t do the 7 CFP years because other folks already have.

My overall thoughts are that the 2011 and 2012 seasons were a total mess and it’s no wonder that’s when the BCS came to an end.

When you have teams ranked 10th and 12th getting first round byes something isn’t working right. (5 SEC teams in 2012 is wild!)

I was surprised to see how many non-BCS teams would have had Byes or At-Large berths too.

Also, 28 bids in 23 years is down right pathetic for the ACC.

(06-11-2021 02:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Also, 28 bids in 23 years is down right pathetic for the ACC.

Is it?

With FSU at it's greatest in the first quarter of this time frame, and Miami, VT, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse in the Big East and Utah and TCU in the Mountain West what would you expect?

(06-11-2021 02:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Also, 28 bids in 23 years is down right pathetic for the ACC.

I think it shows what we know: ACC has always been very top heavy - whether Florida State or Clemson being title contenders, and not a lot of depth below that

The 4th bye across 23 seasons listed:

#4 (7 times) 30.43%
#5 (4 times) 17.39%
#6 (7 times) 30.43%
#7 (2 times) 8.70%
#8 (1 times) 4.35%
#9 (0 times)
#10 (1 time) 4.35%
#11 (0 time)
#12 (1 time) 4.35%

Only 30.43% is that 4th bye filled by a conference champ ranked #4. Most of the time then it will be lower than #4 however 91.3% of the time it will be from a champ ranked #8 or higher.

2012 was the chaos year where ND finished #1, Florida was #3 but didn't win its conference, Oregon was #4 but didn't win its conference, a glut of SEC teams overall (4), two G5 champs making the field and no B1G representative. Very strange year and #12 Florida State is the 4th highest conference champ.

This proves then its possible in a chaos year to get a conference bye ranked as low as 12. More practically it opens the PAC champ up to getting a bye if they are cutoff from the top 5 or a bone crusher type G5 team like TCU was for the MWC in 2009.

(06-11-2021 02:51 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 02:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Also, 28 bids in 23 years is down right pathetic for the ACC.

Is it?

With FSU at it's greatest in the first quarter of this time frame, and Miami, VT, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse in the Big East and Utah and TCU in the Mountain West what would you expect?

Not pathetic per se, but the fewest of the surviving power conferences. Less than half of what the SEC accrued in this alternate timeline.

(06-11-2021 10:54 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 02:51 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 02:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Also, 28 bids in 23 years is down right pathetic for the ACC.

Is it?

With FSU at it's greatest in the first quarter of this time frame, and Miami, VT, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse in the Big East and Utah and TCU in the Mountain West what would you expect?

Not pathetic per se, but the fewest of the surviving power conferences. Less than half of what the SEC accrued in this alternate timeline.

Nerdlinger,

I am a fan! You are awesome.

Nerd, what a fantastic analysis and breakdown. Wow!

(06-11-2021 02:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Using the rules of the newly proposed expanded CFP. Any questions, please ask!



Total number of bids by conference
65: SEC
49: Big Ten
48: Big 12
38: Pac-10/12
28: ACC
17: Big East/AAC (12 as AQ, 5 as G5)
10: MWC
7: I-A/FBS Ind (all ND), WAC
4: MAC
2: CUSA
1: Sun Belt
0: Big West

Total number of bids by school
17: Ohio St.
16: Oklahoma
12: Alabama, Florida
11: LSU
10: Florida St., Georgia, Oregon
9: USC
8: Boise St., Kansas St., Notre Dame, TCU, Wisconsin
7: Clemson, Penn St., Texas
6: Auburn, Miami-FL, Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech
5: Michigan St.
4: Iowa, Nebraska, Tennessee, Washington
3: Arkansas, Baylor, Cincinnati, Missouri, Texas A&M, UCF, Utah
2: Arizona, Colorado, Louisville, South Carolina, West Virginia
1: Arizona St., California, CCU, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa St., Kansas, Marshall, Maryland, Memphis, Miami-OH, Mississippi St., NIU, North Carolina, Oklahoma St., Ole Miss, Oregon St., Texas Tech, Tulane, UCLA, Virginia, Washington St., WMU

Fantastic compilation!! Thanks!

Quick count. Not guarunteeing 100% accuracy

Number of bids based on current conference membership and not based on conference membership at the time.

SEC: 68
Big Ten: 54
Big 12: 45
PAC: 41
ACC: 34
ND: 8
AAC: 8
MWC: 9
MAC: 3
CUSA: 1
SBC: 1

Great work, Nerdlinger.

BYEs aren't completely out of reach for the heretofore "Group of 5."

The Mountain West would have gotten 3 in a row (Utah '08, TCU '09 & '10)
The Big East/American got 2 since Miami in 2002 (Louisville '06, Cincy '09)

Realignment at the beginning of the last decade squashed most of that; all except for Cincy have moved into the heretofore "Power 5."

(06-12-2021 01:41 PM)goofus Wrote:  Quick count. Not guarunteeing 100% accuracy

Number of bids based on current conference membership and not based on conference membership at the time.

SEC: 68
Big Ten: 54
Big 12: 45
PAC: 41
ACC: 34
ND: 8
AAC: 8
MWC: 9
MAC: 3
CUSA: 1
SBC: 1

Close! Here's what I get:

SEC: 68
Big Ten: 54
Big 12: 48
Pac-12: 41
ACC: 34
AAC: 9
MWC: 9
I(ND): 8
MAC: 3
CUSA: 1
Sun Belt: 1

Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

(06-11-2021 02:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 02:23 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 02:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It seems we were working on the very same thing at the same time.

So we were! I spent about 5 or 6 hours on this. How about you?

About 2, but I didn’t do the 7 CFP years because other folks already have.

My overall thoughts are that the 2011 and 2012 seasons were a total mess and it’s no wonder that’s when the BCS came to an end.

When you have teams ranked 10th and 12th getting first round byes something isn’t working right. (5 SEC teams in 2012 is wild!)

I was surprised to see how many non-BCS teams would have had Byes or At-Large berths too.

And that's not even taking into consideration the rankings drop off right at the AQ/Non-AQ line.

(06-12-2021 03:14 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

That was the point. Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-12-2021 03:14 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

That was the point. Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

So the AAC shoild have 13 and the ACC should have 30.

(06-12-2021 04:46 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  [quote='BCSvsBS' pid='17464269' dateline='1623528879']
Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

That was the point. Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

Nerdlinger,

Congratulations for doing an outstanding job on assembling the data. You did a yeoman's job!

It made the most sense to list the teams according to their conference affiliations at the time (including Boise St., which was in the WAC (2000-2010) and MWC (2011-2020)), rather than listing them according to the conferences that they are in today, because you were doing historical, rather than "alternative history" research.

Presenting the data the way that you did was very informative, because doing so made it clear that there was a lot more diversity in the number of conferences that would have been represented, had the 12-team CFP format been in place over the past 20 years.

Could the data be presented differently, based on a scenario in which the teams would have been in different conferences than they were in at the time?

The answer would be "yes, but that would have made it harder, not easier, for the reader to see what the impact of conference realignment has been."