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Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
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JamesTKirk Offline
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Post: #161
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner.

That's an excellent point. Most, if not all of the AAC schools have benefitted in a host of ways from joining the conference, both athletically and otherwise.


(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.).

They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

That may all change when a CFP expansion is announced, which some believe may happen sooner, rather than later. Even BYU may come at that point, if the AAC seems likely to get an automatic bid.


(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

That is a very insightful point, whether the investment would come from the network itself, from the school's endowment, from a wealthy donor, or possibly even from the AAC itself.

What you seem to be suggesting is that, if the AAC can't attract one of the schools on its short list, there might be a couple of potential prospects out there that could develop pretty quickly into high-quality football programs.

.
06-10-2021 08:36 AM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #162
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
In my opinion the AAC should leave the #12 spot open in case either BYU comes available or Boise State has a change of circumstances. JMO
06-10-2021 08:48 AM
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usffan Offline
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Post: #163
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-09-2021 08:10 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  If you play uneven divisions, you can have nine teams with 8 conference games and two teams with 7 conference games.
(Or you could have two teams with 9 conference games, but that is less good)

It's not brain surgery

Or you have the two teams that play 7 conference games play each other a second time (home and home) and voila, everybody plays 8 games. You could even rotate who those two teams are pretty much every year so that it doesn't get old, though an option would be to designate a rivalry (War on I-4, e.g.) to be done that way if need be.

Point is - there is no way the AAC will be forced to add a 12th member, despite how thirsty many people seem to be for it.

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06-10-2021 09:07 AM
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usffan Offline
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Post: #164
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
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06-10-2021 09:09 AM
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Post: #165
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 08:36 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner.

That's an excellent point. Most, if not all of the AAC schools have benefitted in a host of ways from joining the conference, both athletically and otherwise.


(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.).

They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

That may all change when a CFP expansion is announced, which some believe may happen sooner, rather than later. Even BYU may come at that point, if the AAC seems likely to get an automatic bid.


(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

That is a very insightful point, whether the investment would come from the network itself, from the school's endowment, from a wealthy donor, or possibly even from the AAC itself.

What you seem to be suggesting is that, if the AAC can't attract one of the schools on its short list, there might be a couple of potential prospects out there that could develop pretty quickly into high-quality football programs.

.
Go log back into your other account, jed
06-10-2021 10:34 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #166
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner. The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.). They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

I doubt anyone gets added, but there are a few programs with strong potential with the AAC association.

I couldnt disagree more. What your suggesting is a "close your eyes and cross your fingers pick" where the league simply HOPES the school will develop into a high quality member. HOPE is not a strategy any more than buying a lottery ticket every week is a viable retirement plan.

The only thing I will say is IF the AAC was forced to select a 12th member---then the lack of viable candidates---and the complete lack of ANY candidates that are good in both football AND basketball basically requires the league to split that 12th slot and create a hybrid 12th member. Take VCU as a non-football member and pair it with the best brand name /highest quality football program available in the east (hopefully one with a much higher ceiling). That would probably be AppSt--maybe Marshall---but I just dont know if the presidents would be willing to accept those schools as they arent great institutional fits. I suspect AAC fans might be really disappointed with who emerges as the best "football only" candidate among a group of 11 university presidents.

That said, given there really arent any brand names with any significant value available to the AAC---it could be argued that it doesnt really matter who they pick. Thus, the presidents would not be completely out of line if they accepted a slightly lesser "on the field performance/brand value" in exchange for an institutional fit they DO highly value. Thus, you could actually end up with a Georgia St/Buffalo/UAB type "football only" replacement for UConn emerging from such a process.

Once you really start looking at whats avaialble and how few boxes any individual candidate checks---it becomes obvious why the AAC still sits at 11 members almost 2 full years after UConn announced their intention to exit the conference.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 11:49 AM by Attackcoog.)
06-10-2021 11:44 AM
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Post: #167
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 11:44 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner. The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.). They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

I doubt anyone gets added, but there are a few programs with strong potential with the AAC association.

I couldnt disagree more. What your suggesting is a "close your eyes and cross your fingers pick" where the league simply HOPES the school will develop into a high quality member. HOPE is not a strategy any more than buying a lottery ticket every week is a viable retirement plan.

The bolded part is true. This is the exact argument many fans make for adding non-P5 Team X to any P5 conference. "Add them now, give them 10 years, and with the [insert name of conference] branding and TV revenue, they will grow into a strong member of [insert name of conference]." And the response to that is always pretty much what you're saying above, ie, "After they become good enough to be a strong member of this conference, then we'll invite them."
06-10-2021 12:10 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #168
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
Nothing wrong with 11 members
06-10-2021 12:31 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #169
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 12:31 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Nothing wrong with 11 members

In a general sense, I agree.

But 12 (or 14) would provide the AAC more TV game inventory and increased visibility (in general, the more schools in a league, the more often that league is referenced in media and by fans).

I'm opposed to adding simply for the sake of adding. BUT, all things be equal, 12 is better than 11.
06-10-2021 12:57 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #170
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 12:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 11:44 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner. The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.). They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

I doubt anyone gets added, but there are a few programs with strong potential with the AAC association.

I couldnt disagree more. What your suggesting is a "close your eyes and cross your fingers pick" where the league simply HOPES the school will develop into a high quality member. HOPE is not a strategy any more than buying a lottery ticket every week is a viable retirement plan.

The bolded part is true. This is the exact argument many fans make for adding non-P5 Team X to any P5 conference. "Add them now, give them 10 years, and with the [insert name of conference] branding and TV revenue, they will grow into a strong member of [insert name of conference]." And the response to that is always pretty much what you're saying above, ie, "After they become good enough to be a strong member of this conference, then we'll invite them."

Exactly. Without going though all the math, 2016 showed us that even with a pro-rata clause in the media contract, adding a G5 just no longer makes sense for P5's because P5 conferences now make so much money from sources that do not automatically increase when you add more members (CFP, bowls, NCAA basketball credits, sponsorships, etc.). I think P5 conferences, for the most part, have hit the wall of diminishing returns when it comes to expansion. The only way expansion makes sense anymore for a P5 is if its adding a major high value king pin program (like UT or Oklahoma). The hole left behind after such a raid is the only way a G5 might move up---and even then the numbers might indicate the raided conference is better off standing pat.
06-10-2021 01:10 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #171
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 01:10 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 12:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 11:44 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner. The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.). They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

I doubt anyone gets added, but there are a few programs with strong potential with the AAC association.

I couldnt disagree more. What your suggesting is a "close your eyes and cross your fingers pick" where the league simply HOPES the school will develop into a high quality member. HOPE is not a strategy any more than buying a lottery ticket every week is a viable retirement plan.

The bolded part is true. This is the exact argument many fans make for adding non-P5 Team X to any P5 conference. "Add them now, give them 10 years, and with the [insert name of conference] branding and TV revenue, they will grow into a strong member of [insert name of conference]." And the response to that is always pretty much what you're saying above, ie, "After they become good enough to be a strong member of this conference, then we'll invite them."

Exactly. Without going though all the math, 2016 showed us that even with a pro-rata clause in the media contract, adding a G5 just no longer makes sense for P5's because P5 conferences now make so much money from sources that do not automatically increase when you add more members (CFP, bowls, NCAA basketball credits, sponsorships, etc.). I think P5 conferences, for the most part, have hit the wall of diminishing returns when it comes to expansion. The only way expansion makes sense anymore for a P5 is if its adding a major high value king pin program (like UT or Oklahoma). The hole left behind after such a raid is the only way a G5 might move up---and even then the numbers might indicate the raided conference is better off standing pat.

I agree with what you said. But what if the Big 10 poaches Oklahoma and Kansas from the Big XII. And the Big XII backfills with Cincinnati and Florida State say. Would the AAC stand pat at 10? Or what if the Big XII took UCF instead of Florida State, would the AAC stand pat at 9? Either way the AAC would likely lose significant revenue and ESPN would not be happy.

If such a realignment were to take place, Texas would be looking for a new home. Any chance that Missouri would move to the Big 10 with Texas?
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 02:20 PM by SMUstang.)
06-10-2021 02:04 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #172
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 08:27 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Navy and Wichita are very valuable brands to the American. They will not be "dumped" so that the AAC can have balanced divisions in football or so as to nix the hybrid model. That would be absurd.

The American is in very fine shape (not "great," admittedly, but very fine). It is an all-sports league with a quality mix of academics (including six medical schools), athletics and universities with strong histories and city locations. It is joined by the Big East and the Mountain West as the three best NCAA D-I conferences (though some would add the Ivy League to that group) that are not part of the Power Five.

Did somebody suggest dumping Wichita? I think the opposite, encourage them to restart football. They’re already in the conference and the footprint. They could immediately compete to be the best football program in the state. Not many other eastern/Midwestern candidates can say that, except, ahem, Liberty!

That brings me to a thought which I’ve often had: you want a program that will pour money into it until they are upper tier? Then you look at Liberty. The presidents won’t allow it, but it’s true.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 02:09 PM by esayem.)
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #173
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 02:04 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 01:10 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 12:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 11:44 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  IMO, there are several all-sport, football-first, athletic programs that could definitely grow and develop over time under the American banner. The AAC will likely wait for a sure thing that immediately provides value (Boise, BYU, Army, etc.). They haven't come, nor will they for various reasons.

With the right investment, they can add a program that can get a boost with recruiting and viewership, and in the right market, it could pay huge dividends as a long-term asset to the league.

I doubt anyone gets added, but there are a few programs with strong potential with the AAC association.

I couldnt disagree more. What your suggesting is a "close your eyes and cross your fingers pick" where the league simply HOPES the school will develop into a high quality member. HOPE is not a strategy any more than buying a lottery ticket every week is a viable retirement plan.

The bolded part is true. This is the exact argument many fans make for adding non-P5 Team X to any P5 conference. "Add them now, give them 10 years, and with the [insert name of conference] branding and TV revenue, they will grow into a strong member of [insert name of conference]." And the response to that is always pretty much what you're saying above, ie, "After they become good enough to be a strong member of this conference, then we'll invite them."

Exactly. Without going though all the math, 2016 showed us that even with a pro-rata clause in the media contract, adding a G5 just no longer makes sense for P5's because P5 conferences now make so much money from sources that do not automatically increase when you add more members (CFP, bowls, NCAA basketball credits, sponsorships, etc.). I think P5 conferences, for the most part, have hit the wall of diminishing returns when it comes to expansion. The only way expansion makes sense anymore for a P5 is if its adding a major high value king pin program (like UT or Oklahoma). The hole left behind after such a raid is the only way a G5 might move up---and even then the numbers might indicate the raided conference is better off standing pat.

I agree with what you said. But what if the Big 10 poaches Oklahoma and Kansas from the Big XII. And the Big XII backfills with Cincinnati and Florida State say. Would the AAC stand pat at 10?

I suspect they would. The replacement choices would not have improved--and with 10 members---the league no longer has scheduling problems. So, unless BYU, Boise, or Army is interested---I think the AAC would just divide into two 5-team divisions and continue on. If they later discover having 10 members is adversely affecting their playoff chances--they can always reassess the expansion options available.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 02:11 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-10-2021 02:09 PM
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RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 08:48 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  In my opinion the AAC should leave the #12 spot open in case either BYU comes available or Boise State has a change of circumstances. JMO

Do we know if BYU was asked? The prevailing wisdom seems to be that BYU doesn't want to be in a conference considered beneath the one that Utah is in, but they don't seem to have a problem with that for hoops. Would anything less than a guaranteed spot in the NY6 for its conference satisfy BYU?
06-10-2021 02:42 PM
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Post: #175
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 02:42 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 08:48 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  In my opinion the AAC should leave the #12 spot open in case either BYU comes available or Boise State has a change of circumstances. JMO

Do we know if BYU was asked? The prevailing wisdom seems to be that BYU doesn't want to be in a conference considered beneath the one that Utah is in, but they don't seem to have a problem with that for hoops. Would anything less than a guaranteed spot in the NY6 for its conference satisfy BYU?

I’m sure Aresco has talked to them. Gonzaga is the Notre Dame of hoops.
06-10-2021 03:14 PM
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RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 02:09 PM)esayem Wrote:  Did somebody suggest dumping Wichita? I think the opposite, encourage them to restart football. They’re already in the conference and the footprint. They could immediately compete to be the best football program in the state. Not many other eastern/Midwestern candidates can say that, except, ahem, Liberty!

That brings me to a thought which I’ve often had: you want a program that will pour money into it until they are upper tier? Then you look at Liberty. The presidents won’t allow it, but it’s true.

We are getting better. Many of the sports have had NCAA success. Academics are trending up. The campus is beautiful. Thanks for the mention Esayem.
06-10-2021 03:51 PM
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Post: #177
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 02:09 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 08:27 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Navy and Wichita are very valuable brands to the American. They will not be "dumped" so that the AAC can have balanced divisions in football or so as to nix the hybrid model. That would be absurd.

The American is in very fine shape (not "great," admittedly, but very fine). It is an all-sports league with a quality mix of academics (including six medical schools), athletics and universities with strong histories and city locations. It is joined by the Big East and the Mountain West as the three best NCAA D-I conferences (though some would add the Ivy League to that group) that are not part of the Power Five.

Did somebody suggest dumping Wichita? I think the opposite, encourage them to restart football. They’re already in the conference and the footprint. They could immediately compete to be the best football program in the state. Not many other eastern/Midwestern candidates can say that, except, ahem, Liberty!

That brings me to a thought which I’ve often had: you want a program that will pour money into it until they are upper tier? Then you look at Liberty. The presidents won’t allow it, but it’s true.

Virginia Tech says hi.
06-10-2021 04:15 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #178
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 02:09 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 08:27 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Navy and Wichita are very valuable brands to the American. They will not be "dumped" so that the AAC can have balanced divisions in football or so as to nix the hybrid model. That would be absurd.

The American is in very fine shape (not "great," admittedly, but very fine). It is an all-sports league with a quality mix of academics (including six medical schools), athletics and universities with strong histories and city locations. It is joined by the Big East and the Mountain West as the three best NCAA D-I conferences (though some would add the Ivy League to that group) that are not part of the Power Five.

Did somebody suggest dumping Wichita? I think the opposite, encourage them to restart football. They’re already in the conference and the footprint. They could immediately compete to be the best football program in the state. Not many other eastern/Midwestern candidates can say that, except, ahem, Liberty!

That brings me to a thought which I’ve often had: you want a program that will pour money into it until they are upper tier? Then you look at Liberty. The presidents won’t allow it, but it’s true.

Without going back in this thread, I seem to recall a poster had suggested the AAC dropping Wichita.

As to WSU jump-starting football (I recall the days Memphis played Wichita in football) ... it would be a major challenge and could prove harmful to WSU hoops and baseball (both of which have been nationally competitive for years). But I would be open to it as a fan of two AAC programs.

As to Liberty ... there is no question Liberty is qualified overall to be a member of the American. What a great year in football, men's hoops and baseball for LU. And the university has the financial resources. But I struggle to see an AAC invite happening (at least anytime soon).
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 04:26 PM by bill dazzle.)
06-10-2021 04:25 PM
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Post: #179
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 03:14 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 02:42 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 08:48 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  In my opinion the AAC should leave the #12 spot open in case either BYU comes available or Boise State has a change of circumstances. JMO

Do we know if BYU was asked? The prevailing wisdom seems to be that BYU doesn't want to be in a conference considered beneath the one that Utah is in, but they don't seem to have a problem with that for hoops. Would anything less than a guaranteed spot in the NY6 for its conference satisfy BYU?

I’m sure Aresco has talked to them. Gonzaga is the Notre Dame of hoops.

Commissioner Aresco seemed pretty confident that teams such as BYU might pick up the phone and give him a call if a CFP expansion including a probable auto-bid for the top G5 conference would be announced.

We're not there yet, but it looks like momentum is building for a CFP expansion plan that would include auto-bids for the highest-ranked conference champions.

6 of the past 8 seasons, and over the past 4 seasons in a row, the highest-ranked G5 conference champions were the AAC championship teams.

That would seem to be a pretty compelling reason why BYU may want to consider joining the AAC if the proposed CFP expansion plan is adopted.

Unless they join a conference, their only path to the CFP would almost certainly require them to go undefeated - - since no non-P5 team has made it into the top 12 without going undefeated during the regular season - - and BYU has only had one undefeated team in its history, dating back to 1922.

The question wouldn't be whether BYU would find it highly advantageous to join a conference, but which conference they would join.
06-10-2021 04:36 PM
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Post: #180
RE: Game Over: AAC shuts the door on Boise
(06-10-2021 02:42 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 08:48 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  In my opinion the AAC should leave the #12 spot open in case either BYU comes available or Boise State has a change of circumstances. JMO

Do we know if BYU was asked? The prevailing wisdom seems to be that BYU doesn't want to be in a conference considered beneath the one that Utah is in, but they don't seem to have a problem with that for hoops. Would anything less than a guaranteed spot in the NY6 for its conference satisfy BYU?

I wonder if this new playoff format changes things

Win the AAC and you will likely be in the playoffs

Before that wasn't the case

BYU could easily do football only too so they dont have the Boise problem
06-10-2021 04:36 PM
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