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Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 09:39 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 05:14 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 10:58 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 07:23 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 05:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Yeah, I both feel for the MWC folks who have to constantly endure the program and its administrative antics and for the AAC folks who can’t seem to land something better, or maybe simply quit Boise. And I want to like Boise, but it’s tough to considering the constant posturing. But it comes down to both conferences doing something about this: MWC needs to play real hardball on Boise and the AAC needs to either formally dispel this rumor or simply air out why the Broncos keep coming up in these discussions. Chances are, make it more known in AAC world, and fans and boosters come knocking on their schools’ doors in some sort of outrage over it. Especially if it comes to full membership.

I’m over all of it, but, totally buy it still being a thing, too.

I personally think moving up would fix that, because Boise is an AAC-quality team sitting in the MWC. Similar to how if Texas joined the SEC, they wouldn't be laying their d*** on the table as often.

May be hard to stop after all these years.

That’s my hunch, too. I mean, if they put themselves into the AAC and the AAC finds themselves gutted enough after another round of expansion (and I believe some combination of Cincy, Houston, and or UCF is probably moving on at some point), AAC loses leverage. I doubt the losses attact other MWC schools to move (and I think it’s possible MWC goes unimpacted since nobody seems to really want “chasers” like SDSU, CSU, and AFA other than the AAC maybe). Boise is geographically isolated in a slightly crippled conference. Ding-dong, Boise’s back at the MWC door.

I mean, kudos to Boise for feeling it out...it’s the MWC and AAC who need to show a spine here.

I just don't see that ever happening. Those markets are already locked down by the P5. Those schools don't offer anything the P5 don't already have. Plus they aint sharing their money.

I think it depends on the conferences wanting the respective territory. Sure, the Big Ten and PAC aren’t swooping, but any growth on their end (and I think the PAC pretty much HAS to grow somehow or somewhere) shifts things enough for Houston and Cincy, who are probably the proverbial “next up.” Big XII, ACC...I don’t think it’s a slam dunk, but, I think it will happen some time for at least one of them this decade.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 09:56 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
05-07-2021 09:56 AM
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PicksUp Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-05-2021 10:22 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 09:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I hope he is wrong. IMO, the AAC should not take Boise or SDSU, and especially not if we have to take any sports other than football.

And I'm even against taking their football. The AAC has proven capable of dominating the G5 NY6 spot without these MW schools. There's a reason the rest of the MW tried to end Boise's sweetheart TV deal - because Boise hasn't been doing what they were expected to do to earn that extra money, namely capture the NY6 spot. The last time Boise did that, Saban had four national titles not seven, and the idea of Clemson going to the playoffs even once seemed far-fetched. IMO we dodged a bullet when they bailed out in late 2012 as the Big East fell fully apart.

Boise and SDSU want a lifeline. But why should the AAC provide one? As a USF fan, I'm uninterested in allowing Boise or SDSU access to our superior platform.

Let them drown.

07-coffee3

Boise still gets a lot of left over respect from their previous success.

They havent had many NY6 bowls or dominated the MWC (only 3 CCG titles), but they are one of 6 programs with at least 100 wins since 2011. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Georgia and Oklahoma. Then Boise.

SD State has 85, Cincinnati 84 and UCF 83.

Sure, they arent as dominant as they were before but maybe its because theyre in a much more competitive conference now. If they make the jump then they could be on the level of a Cincinnati, Mamphis and UCF. Maybe. Or maybe they become a .500 team.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 11:05 AM by PicksUp.)
05-07-2021 11:04 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 07:39 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 02:07 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 11:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 08:36 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Not this again.

If it was going to happen it would have already.

Nothing to see here.

That kind of logic is always true right up until the day it is not.

LOL. I grant your point. Frankly I was being a little lazy. It would be more accurate to say if this was going to happen with the AAC and MWC still positioned in the FBS conference hierarchy as they have been for the past couple of years it would have already.

If and when something happens to substantially change that relative positioning — e.g. alterations to media contract terms, CFP distributions and/or New Year’s Six bowl access that result in the AAC drawing closer in status to the P5 and becoming further distanced from the MWC — I could see one or more MWC schools moving to the AAC.
But as yet there’s been no significant reshaping of the landscape that would change the realignment calculus for Boise State, SDSU or any other MWC member.

Something like an automatic playoff spot for the conference that owns the G5 bid?


"Several commissioners, even one from the Group of Five, believe that each Power 5 champion and the highest ranked team from the Group of Five should receive an automatic berth. An automatic spot for a G5 team is viewed as an essential compromise, as five of the 11 members represent G5 leagues."


"In fact, the playoff working group, made up of four members of the CFP Management Committee (the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick), has been exploring a new model for two years. The group, including commissioners Greg Sankey (SEC), Bob Bowlsby (Big 12) and Craig Thompson (Mountain West), as well as Swarbrick, was formed in January 2019 but paused to handle matters related to COVID-19 this past calendar year."

"More and more people–not just fans, but the 10 commissioners and Notre Dame–who have a vote in the matter are saying, 'it's time to look at expansion,'" Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson told ESPN. "I think we could accommodate expansion before the 12-year contract expires."

Yeah, but BYU was knocking on the door without a P5 victory. Coastal was knocking on the door with a Sun Belt schedule. Adding teams to the American doesn’t help if the champ loses a game and a MWC champ is undefeated.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 11:15 AM by esayem.)
05-07-2021 11:15 AM
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MattBrownEP Offline
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Post: #84
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
' Wrote:Be careful about taking BYU sources for that.

The ESPN deal you keep talking about is football only, they also have a deal through the WCC for olympic sports that's signed to ESPN.

The football side of the deal is an ala carte deal. BYU is paid on a per home game basis depending on who they are playing (p5) and on what channel that game is broadcast. The total deal could exceed the AAC deal but only if the right games are scheduled and put on the highest level channel (ABC). Otherwise in a general year they will make slightly less or more than the current AAC pay out.

The WCC portion of the deal is considerably less than the AAC olympic pay out.

Neither case, as SLH pointed out, really effect BYU's bottom line enough to be much more that a tiny thumb on the scale. Their home revenue in both basketball and football is the larger chunk of their revenue.

BYU draws well against AAC teams, how chasing a conference championship would effect that is unknown but looking at other teams it usually boosts attendance.

BYU's pride is and has been the issue.

Haven't read through the last few pages here, so forgive me if this was addressed already, but this is not entirely true.

1) Yes, the BYU football deal is essentially *per game*. ESPN contracts at least four BYU home games a year, with an option for more, an option that has been picked up multiple times (including last year). The deal requires that at least three of those four games be aired on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2. BYU has played multiple games on ESPN's flagship every year of the deal, I believe.

2) The current deal, which was just extended to 2026, *does not require multiple ABC games to exceed the AAC deal*. The biggest reason for this is exactly what you mentioned...it matters who you play, and BYU's future schedules control the rights to multiple P5 home games a season.

Lets play out an example. We know exactly what the going rate to broadcast a typical Pac-12 game is in 2022. It's about $6.1 million dollars, since that is what ESPN/Fox pay to broadcast the 45 Tier 1 Pac-12 games, with Big Ten and SEC games worth even more. In 2021, BYU controls the TV rights to three of those games (PLUS an ACC game). Typically, BYU will control home rights to 3 P5 games a year. ESPN isnt paying BYU 6 million for the rights to those games, but the number for P5s in the new deal, I've heard, is closer to 2Mil a game, a huge win for both parties. Then you can see where 9M a season becomes a reasonable number.

You also have to remember that those numbers are going to skyrocket even more. The Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 will all go to market and sign new Tier 1 deals well before the AAC goes to market again, and BYU will go to market again in 2025-2026, meaning BYU's future home inventory (Stanford, Utah, Ole Miss, etc) will get only more valuable.

Add the fact that BYU would likely have to pay fees to get out of future scheduled games to join the AAC (most of these contracts, many i've personally reviewed) have no-penalty clauses for P5 conference membership but not for the AAC), and it's pretty clear...BYU would lose tier1 TV money, especially by 2026/2027, by joining the AAC...UNLESS BYU's membership trigged a massive revision of the existing contract, OR the AAC agreed to unequal revenue sharing.

There are other factors to consider as well...the current WCC arrangement gives byuTV broadcast rights for some Olympic sports and rebroadcast rights for other games that perhaps the AAC wouldn't want to do....and BYU's recruiting footprint isn't anywhere hear the AAC's.

Could BYU potentially be persuaded to join the AAC? Maaaaybe. It would almost certainly require significant concessions that I doubt member schools would want.

FWIW, tracking this stuff is my job.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 11:38 AM by MattBrownEP.)
05-07-2021 11:37 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 11:15 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 07:39 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 02:07 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 11:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 08:36 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Not this again.

If it was going to happen it would have already.

Nothing to see here.

That kind of logic is always true right up until the day it is not.

LOL. I grant your point. Frankly I was being a little lazy. It would be more accurate to say if this was going to happen with the AAC and MWC still positioned in the FBS conference hierarchy as they have been for the past couple of years it would have already.

If and when something happens to substantially change that relative positioning — e.g. alterations to media contract terms, CFP distributions and/or New Year’s Six bowl access that result in the AAC drawing closer in status to the P5 and becoming further distanced from the MWC — I could see one or more MWC schools moving to the AAC.
But as yet there’s been no significant reshaping of the landscape that would change the realignment calculus for Boise State, SDSU or any other MWC member.

Something like an automatic playoff spot for the conference that owns the G5 bid?


"Several commissioners, even one from the Group of Five, believe that each Power 5 champion and the highest ranked team from the Group of Five should receive an automatic berth. An automatic spot for a G5 team is viewed as an essential compromise, as five of the 11 members represent G5 leagues."


"In fact, the playoff working group, made up of four members of the CFP Management Committee (the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick), has been exploring a new model for two years. The group, including commissioners Greg Sankey (SEC), Bob Bowlsby (Big 12) and Craig Thompson (Mountain West), as well as Swarbrick, was formed in January 2019 but paused to handle matters related to COVID-19 this past calendar year."

"More and more people–not just fans, but the 10 commissioners and Notre Dame–who have a vote in the matter are saying, 'it's time to look at expansion,'" Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson told ESPN. "I think we could accommodate expansion before the 12-year contract expires."

Yeah, but BYU was knocking on the door without a P5 victory. Coastal was knocking on the door with a Sun Belt schedule. Adding teams to the American doesn’t help if the champ loses a game and a MWC champ is undefeated.

Actually—it might. If the AAC is seen as a clear step up from the the G4–then yes, it’s clear it might very well make a difference to the Committee. They have already ranked 1-loss, 2-loss, and even 3-loss P5 teams ahead of undefeated G5’s. It’s not out if the realm of possibility that if the AAC added the best 3 G’s currently still outside of the AAC—it might raise the league’s perceived SOS enough to get to that threshold where a 1-loss AAC champ might edge out an undefeated G4 team. No way they will get power conference deference from the committee—but the AAC might could get to where they get a little more than the current tie breaker preference they seem to get from the Committee.
05-07-2021 11:44 AM
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Post: #86
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 11:37 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  
' Wrote:Be careful about taking BYU sources for that.

The ESPN deal you keep talking about is football only, they also have a deal through the WCC for olympic sports that's signed to ESPN.

The football side of the deal is an ala carte deal. BYU is paid on a per home game basis depending on who they are playing (p5) and on what channel that game is broadcast. The total deal could exceed the AAC deal but only if the right games are scheduled and put on the highest level channel (ABC). Otherwise in a general year they will make slightly less or more than the current AAC pay out.

The WCC portion of the deal is considerably less than the AAC olympic pay out.

Neither case, as SLH pointed out, really effect BYU's bottom line enough to be much more that a tiny thumb on the scale. Their home revenue in both basketball and football is the larger chunk of their revenue.

BYU draws well against AAC teams, how chasing a conference championship would effect that is unknown but looking at other teams it usually boosts attendance.

BYU's pride is and has been the issue.

Haven't read through the last few pages here, so forgive me if this was addressed already, but this is not entirely true.

1) Yes, the BYU football deal is essentially *per game*. ESPN contracts at least four BYU home games a year, with an option for more, an option that has been picked up multiple times (including last year). The deal requires that at least three of those four games be aired on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2. BYU has played multiple games on ESPN's flagship every year of the deal, I believe.

2) The current deal, which was just extended to 2026, *does not require multiple ABC games to exceed the AAC deal*. The biggest reason for this is exactly what you mentioned...it matters who you play, and BYU's future schedules control the rights to multiple P5 home games a season.

Lets play out an example. We know exactly what the going rate to broadcast a typical Pac-12 game is in 2022. It's about $6.1 million dollars, since that is what ESPN/Fox pay to broadcast the 45 Tier 1 Pac-12 games, with Big Ten and SEC games worth even more. In 2021, BYU controls the TV rights to three of those games (PLUS an ACC game). Typically, BYU will control home rights to 3 P5 games a year. ESPN isnt paying BYU 6 million for the rights to those games, but the number for P5s in the new deal, I've heard, is closer to 2Mil a game, a huge win for both parties. Then you can see where 9M a season becomes a reasonable number.

You also have to remember that those numbers are going to skyrocket even more. The Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 will all go to market and sign new Tier 1 deals well before the AAC goes to market again, and BYU will go to market again in 2025-2026, meaning BYU's future home inventory (Stanford, Utah, Ole Miss, etc) will get only more valuable.

Add the fact that BYU would likely have to pay fees to get out of future scheduled games to join the AAC (most of these contracts, many i've personally reviewed) have no-penalty clauses for P5 conference membership but not for the AAC), and it's pretty clear...BYU would lose tier1 TV money, especially by 2026/2027, by joining the AAC...UNLESS BYU's membership trigged a massive revision of the existing contract, OR the AAC agreed to unequal revenue sharing.

There are other factors to consider as well...the current WCC arrangement gives byuTV broadcast rights for some Olympic sports and rebroadcast rights for other games that perhaps the AAC wouldn't want to do....and BYU's recruiting footprint isn't anywhere hear the AAC's.

Could BYU potentially be persuaded to join the AAC? Maaaaybe. It would almost certainly require significant concessions that I doubt member schools would want.

FWIW, tracking this stuff is my job.

Some interesting math here. ESPN pays $6.1 million for a Pac-12 game, or alternatively, $3.05 million for each Pac-12 school to participate in a game. On the other hand, it pays $2 million for a game where BYU plays a Pac-12 team. So it values BYU's participation at $-1.05 million!

(I know this reasoning is bull****.)
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 01:28 PM by OhioBoilermaker.)
05-07-2021 01:21 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Online
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Post: #87
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-06-2021 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 04:18 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 09:27 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 08:46 PM)Yung Knightt Wrote:  Do you have BYU's ESPN TV deal finances around?

Not that I can share in public, but I've had folks VERY close to that department tell me that the ESPN deal + WCC revenue > > current AAC deal (which is NOT as lucrative a deal as the initial headlines insinuated). BYU FB made ~6M a year before their extension, and conservative estimates have the new ESPN deal in the 9M range.

BYU joining the AAC would almost certainly trigger a renegotiation of the AAC deal with ESPN....but the bulk of BYU's TV value comes from the fact they they control the broadcast rights to at least three P5 games a year. That won't be the case in the American.

I think you are correct, the combination of revenue from the BYU football TV contract and the WCC is probably better than the AAC. Also, BYU athletics gets TV exposure from the BYUtv Network, with at least one college football game and about 12 men's basketball games televised on the network each year. They have other BYU Olympic sports on the Network. The unknown is what revenue is generated from that?

The one thing BYU needs and wants is to be considered a power conference school, much like Notre Dame. The AAC does not help with that. So if the AAC cannot provide that and the revenue they currently get is better, what would be the point in joining the AAC? Even BYU's current schedule is tougher than an AAC schedule:

09/04 - vs Arizona (in Las Vegas, NV)
09/11 - Utah
09/18 - Arizona State
09/25 - USF
10/01 - at Utah State
10/09 - Boise State
10/16 - at Baylor
10/23 - at Washington State
10/30 - Virginia
11/06 - Idaho State
11/20 - at Georgia Southern
11/27 - at USC

ESPN FPI has BYU's 2021 Strength of Schedule ("Remaining Strength of Schedule" in the presentation of the data) ranked 84th

Tulsa #40
Tulane #51
SMU #71
Cincinnati #72
South Florida #73
Navy #74
East Carolina #81
BYU #84
Memphis #90
UCF #98
Temple #103
Houston #105

Well, how about that?
ESPN FPI has never been particularly favorable to AAC teams either.

I am not a big fan of the ESPN FPI. I think it is pointless. Tulsa has the #40 toughest schedule because they play at Ohio State and at Oklahoma State. Houston has the #105 toughest schedule because they play Texas Tech in Houston, at Rice, Grambling at home and at UConn. For the AAC, the FPI comes down to those four non-conference games. What do you learn from the FPI about the upcoming season?

According to 247sports football recruiting, there were no AAC schools in the top 40 in recruiting and only two in the top 50. The AAC had zero five-star recruits and two four-star recruits. USC alone had 1 five-star recruit and 14 four-star recruits. Power conference schools recruit better players. BYU is playing seven power conference schools plus rivals Boise State at home and Utah State on the road. That is a tougher schedule.
05-07-2021 02:41 PM
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CoastalJuan Online
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 02:41 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 04:18 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 09:27 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 08:46 PM)Yung Knightt Wrote:  Do you have BYU's ESPN TV deal finances around?

Not that I can share in public, but I've had folks VERY close to that department tell me that the ESPN deal + WCC revenue > > current AAC deal (which is NOT as lucrative a deal as the initial headlines insinuated). BYU FB made ~6M a year before their extension, and conservative estimates have the new ESPN deal in the 9M range.

BYU joining the AAC would almost certainly trigger a renegotiation of the AAC deal with ESPN....but the bulk of BYU's TV value comes from the fact they they control the broadcast rights to at least three P5 games a year. That won't be the case in the American.

I think you are correct, the combination of revenue from the BYU football TV contract and the WCC is probably better than the AAC. Also, BYU athletics gets TV exposure from the BYUtv Network, with at least one college football game and about 12 men's basketball games televised on the network each year. They have other BYU Olympic sports on the Network. The unknown is what revenue is generated from that?

The one thing BYU needs and wants is to be considered a power conference school, much like Notre Dame. The AAC does not help with that. So if the AAC cannot provide that and the revenue they currently get is better, what would be the point in joining the AAC? Even BYU's current schedule is tougher than an AAC schedule:

09/04 - vs Arizona (in Las Vegas, NV)
09/11 - Utah
09/18 - Arizona State
09/25 - USF
10/01 - at Utah State
10/09 - Boise State
10/16 - at Baylor
10/23 - at Washington State
10/30 - Virginia
11/06 - Idaho State
11/20 - at Georgia Southern
11/27 - at USC

ESPN FPI has BYU's 2021 Strength of Schedule ("Remaining Strength of Schedule" in the presentation of the data) ranked 84th

Tulsa #40
Tulane #51
SMU #71
Cincinnati #72
South Florida #73
Navy #74
East Carolina #81
BYU #84
Memphis #90
UCF #98
Temple #103
Houston #105

Well, how about that?
ESPN FPI has never been particularly favorable to AAC teams either.

I am not a big fan of the ESPN FPI. I think it is pointless. Tulsa has the #40 toughest schedule because they play at Ohio State and at Oklahoma State. Houston has the #105 toughest schedule because they play Texas Tech in Houston, at Rice, Grambling at home and at UConn. For the AAC, the FPI comes down to those four non-conference games. What do you learn from the FPI about the upcoming season?

According to 247sports football recruiting, there were no AAC schools in the top 40 in recruiting and only two in the top 50. The AAC had zero five-star recruits and two four-star recruits. USC alone had 1 five-star recruit and 14 four-star recruits. Power conference schools recruit better players. BYU is playing seven power conference schools plus rivals Boise State at home and Utah State on the road. That is a tougher schedule.

It's not all OOC. Tulsa plays Cincinnati, Houston plays...us.
05-07-2021 02:55 PM
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Post: #89
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
BYU has at least since the 80's regularly pulled in at least a Top 60 or Top 70 recruiting class. When on top of their game a Top 40 recruiting class and doing that all out of the WAC and MWC. As the top mormon institution they are prestigious in their region.

Its entirely possible they return to regular Top 20 status and won't have any issue getting to a 12 team playoff on those loaded ESPN schedules.

AAC gets more from an addition of BYU than the other way around. A 60k seater program that will help the AAC with bowls. Pick up the Sun Bowl possibly if that continues to slip in P5 importance. BYU though would have to go through a robust AAC schedule which includes road games in Florida. A lot of travel for the players.
05-07-2021 03:53 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 11:04 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 10:22 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 09:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I hope he is wrong. IMO, the AAC should not take Boise or SDSU, and especially not if we have to take any sports other than football.

And I'm even against taking their football. The AAC has proven capable of dominating the G5 NY6 spot without these MW schools. There's a reason the rest of the MW tried to end Boise's sweetheart TV deal - because Boise hasn't been doing what they were expected to do to earn that extra money, namely capture the NY6 spot. The last time Boise did that, Saban had four national titles not seven, and the idea of Clemson going to the playoffs even once seemed far-fetched. IMO we dodged a bullet when they bailed out in late 2012 as the Big East fell fully apart.

Boise and SDSU want a lifeline. But why should the AAC provide one? As a USF fan, I'm uninterested in allowing Boise or SDSU access to our superior platform.

Let them drown.

07-coffee3

Boise still gets a lot of left over respect from their previous success.

They havent had many NY6 bowls or dominated the MWC (only 3 CCG titles), but they are one of 6 programs with at least 100 wins since 2011. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Georgia and Oklahoma. Then Boise.

SD State has 85, Cincinnati 84 and UCF 83.

Sure, they arent as dominant as they were before but maybe its because theyre in a much more competitive conference now. If they make the jump then they could be on the level of a Cincinnati, Mamphis and UCF. Maybe. Or maybe they become a .500 team.

Maybe not a .500 team, but joining the AAC does entail some risk that their performance could deteriorate further than it already has for more than one reason. The first danger is that AAC competition could prove tougher than MWC competition. A second is that it's possible playing mostly eastern teams would hurt Boise's recruiting, which is pretty regional now. I doubt their joining the AAC would lure eastern recruits to Idaho, and maybe some California prospects would be deterred.

I don't believe the AAC serves Boise's interests, and I think both sides dodged a bullet when they backed away in 2012.
05-07-2021 04:06 PM
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 04:06 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 11:04 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 10:22 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 09:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I hope he is wrong. IMO, the AAC should not take Boise or SDSU, and especially not if we have to take any sports other than football.

And I'm even against taking their football. The AAC has proven capable of dominating the G5 NY6 spot without these MW schools. There's a reason the rest of the MW tried to end Boise's sweetheart TV deal - because Boise hasn't been doing what they were expected to do to earn that extra money, namely capture the NY6 spot. The last time Boise did that, Saban had four national titles not seven, and the idea of Clemson going to the playoffs even once seemed far-fetched. IMO we dodged a bullet when they bailed out in late 2012 as the Big East fell fully apart.

Boise and SDSU want a lifeline. But why should the AAC provide one? As a USF fan, I'm uninterested in allowing Boise or SDSU access to our superior platform.

Let them drown.

07-coffee3

Boise still gets a lot of left over respect from their previous success.

They havent had many NY6 bowls or dominated the MWC (only 3 CCG titles), but they are one of 6 programs with at least 100 wins since 2011. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Georgia and Oklahoma. Then Boise.

SD State has 85, Cincinnati 84 and UCF 83.

Sure, they arent as dominant as they were before but maybe its because theyre in a much more competitive conference now. If they make the jump then they could be on the level of a Cincinnati, Mamphis and UCF. Maybe. Or maybe they become a .500 team.

Maybe not a .500 team, but joining the AAC does entail some risk that their performance could deteriorate further than it already has for more than one reason. The first danger is that AAC competition could prove tougher than MWC competition. A second is that it's possible playing mostly eastern teams would hurt Boise's recruiting, which is pretty regional now. I doubt their joining the AAC would lure eastern recruits to Idaho, and maybe some California prospects would be deterred.

I don't believe the AAC serves Boise's interests, and I think both sides dodged a bullet when they backed away in 2012.

The AAC wins with 14 teams and 8 conference games. It's the SEC model and more likely to have a couple of teams in each division with nice-and-shiny win-loss records, which pays dividends in the rankings. More likely to have two ranked teams in your CCG with two 7-team divisions of only 8 conference games...and more likely to avoid the CCG rematch.

The AAC also wins by expanding inventory into western markets and a new 10pm ET kickoff timeslot.
05-07-2021 04:19 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
It has to be the right 14 teams. They start with Boise State and then add two more. Geography and academic stature and budget says under performing athletically Colorado State should be one of the other two. The idea would be to have three MWC schools in a division with SMU, Houston, Tulsa and Wichita State for Olympics. Note, San Diego State is actually not as bad a travel as Boise State, as flights are direct to more cities and it's actually an hour flight time closer as a result.

So I'd target Boise State, get them on board, and follow up with Colorado State and San Diego State, all as full members.

Of course ESPN has to agree to increase the revenue proportionately for the 13th and 14th schools. Right now the contract was set up for 12 schools, and more likely means less for everybody unless renegotiated.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 04:28 PM by Stugray2.)
05-07-2021 04:24 PM
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 04:24 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  It has to be the right 14 teams. They start with Boise State and then add two more. Geography and academic stature and budget says under performing athletically Colorado State should be one of the other two. The idea would be to have three MWC schools in a division with SMU, Houston, Tulsa and Wichita State for Olympics. Note, San Diego State is actually not as bad a travel as Boise State, as flights are direct to more cities and it's actually an hour flight time closer as a result.

So I'd target Boise State, get them on board, and follow up with Colorado State and San Diego State, all as full members.

Based off what I've seen from SDSU's AD they aren't very interested after being left at the alter thanks to Boise last time.

They seemed to be very excited about the AAC/Big West Model that was planned
05-07-2021 04:30 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 04:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:24 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  It has to be the right 14 teams. They start with Boise State and then add two more. Geography and academic stature and budget says under performing athletically Colorado State should be one of the other two. The idea would be to have three MWC schools in a division with SMU, Houston, Tulsa and Wichita State for Olympics. Note, San Diego State is actually not as bad a travel as Boise State, as flights are direct to more cities and it's actually an hour flight time closer as a result.

So I'd target Boise State, get them on board, and follow up with Colorado State and San Diego State, all as full members.

Based off what I've seen from SDSU's AD they aren't very interested after being left at the alter thanks to Boise last time.

They seemed to be very excited about the AAC/Big West Model that was planned

I think the Big West part is DOA. If San Diego State or Colorado State is to be brought on board (or Air Force or UNLV) the American has to take them in All Sports. The SDSU AD made it clear that they have no intention these days (unlike the 2011 plan) to park their Olympics in some one bid bus league.

The reality is the MWC and WCC are the only acceptable conferences in the West for schools at the level of the MWC Basketball. Joining the AAC means they get booted from the MWC and the WCC is not going to take a renter school that is neither private nor faith based. The Texas schools, Tulsa and Wichita State have to be OK flying West for Olympic sports.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 04:38 PM by Stugray2.)
05-07-2021 04:35 PM
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 04:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:24 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  It has to be the right 14 teams. They start with Boise State and then add two more. Geography and academic stature and budget says under performing athletically Colorado State should be one of the other two. The idea would be to have three MWC schools in a division with SMU, Houston, Tulsa and Wichita State for Olympics. Note, San Diego State is actually not as bad a travel as Boise State, as flights are direct to more cities and it's actually an hour flight time closer as a result.

So I'd target Boise State, get them on board, and follow up with Colorado State and San Diego State, all as full members.

Based off what I've seen from SDSU's AD they aren't very interested after being left at the alter thanks to Boise last time.

They seemed to be very excited about the AAC/Big West Model that was planned

I think the Big West part is DOA. If San Diego State or Colorado State is to be brought on board (or Air Force or UNLV) the American has to take them in All Sports. The SDSU AD made it clear that they have no intention these days (unlike the 2011 plan) to park their Olympics in some one bid bus league.

The reality is the MWC and WCC are the only acceptable conferences in the West for schools at the level of the MWC Basketball. Joining the AAC means they get booted from the MWC and the WCC is not going to take a renter school that is neither private nor faith based. The Texas schools, Tulsa and Wichita State have to be OK flying West for Olympic sports.
Yep the Big West seems stable and content. I don't see any interest on either side at this point

Boise is not in a great position to try and recruit friends after they left SDSU at the alter.

I think the AAC would need to add four Western all sports schools that could share a division with the TX schools, Tulsa, and Wichita/Navy in order to make this work and operationally feasible
05-07-2021 04:44 PM
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 11:37 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  
' Wrote:Be careful about taking BYU sources for that.

The ESPN deal you keep talking about is football only, they also have a deal through the WCC for olympic sports that's signed to ESPN.

The football side of the deal is an ala carte deal. BYU is paid on a per home game basis depending on who they are playing (p5) and on what channel that game is broadcast. The total deal could exceed the AAC deal but only if the right games are scheduled and put on the highest level channel (ABC). Otherwise in a general year they will make slightly less or more than the current AAC pay out.

The WCC portion of the deal is considerably less than the AAC olympic pay out.

Neither case, as SLH pointed out, really effect BYU's bottom line enough to be much more that a tiny thumb on the scale. Their home revenue in both basketball and football is the larger chunk of their revenue.

BYU draws well against AAC teams, how chasing a conference championship would effect that is unknown but looking at other teams it usually boosts attendance.

BYU's pride is and has been the issue.

Haven't read through the last few pages here, so forgive me if this was addressed already, but this is not entirely true.

1) Yes, the BYU football deal is essentially *per game*. ESPN contracts at least four BYU home games a year, with an option for more, an option that has been picked up multiple times (including last year). The deal requires that at least three of those four games be aired on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2. BYU has played multiple games on ESPN's flagship every year of the deal, I believe.

2) The current deal, which was just extended to 2026, *does not require multiple ABC games to exceed the AAC deal*. The biggest reason for this is exactly what you mentioned...it matters who you play, and BYU's future schedules control the rights to multiple P5 home games a season.

Lets play out an example. We know exactly what the going rate to broadcast a typical Pac-12 game is in 2022. It's about $6.1 million dollars, since that is what ESPN/Fox pay to broadcast the 45 Tier 1 Pac-12 games, with Big Ten and SEC games worth even more. In 2021, BYU controls the TV rights to three of those games (PLUS an ACC game). Typically, BYU will control home rights to 3 P5 games a year. ESPN isnt paying BYU 6 million for the rights to those games, but the number for P5s in the new deal, I've heard, is closer to 2Mil a game, a huge win for both parties. Then you can see where 9M a season becomes a reasonable number.

You also have to remember that those numbers are going to skyrocket even more. The Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 will all go to market and sign new Tier 1 deals well before the AAC goes to market again, and BYU will go to market again in 2025-2026, meaning BYU's future home inventory (Stanford, Utah, Ole Miss, etc) will get only more valuable.

Add the fact that BYU would likely have to pay fees to get out of future scheduled games to join the AAC (most of these contracts, many i've personally reviewed) have no-penalty clauses for P5 conference membership but not for the AAC), and it's pretty clear...BYU would lose tier1 TV money, especially by 2026/2027, by joining the AAC...UNLESS BYU's membership trigged a massive revision of the existing contract, OR the AAC agreed to unequal revenue sharing.

There are other factors to consider as well...the current WCC arrangement gives byuTV broadcast rights for some Olympic sports and rebroadcast rights for other games that perhaps the AAC wouldn't want to do....and BYU's recruiting footprint isn't anywhere hear the AAC's.

Could BYU potentially be persuaded to join the AAC? Maaaaybe. It would almost certainly require significant concessions that I doubt member schools would want.

FWIW, tracking this stuff is my job.

Just chiming in to say to confirm. I'm a regular listener to the pod

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Glad to see you on here - hope you stay on board!

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05-07-2021 05:15 PM
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Post: #97
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 04:44 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:24 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  It has to be the right 14 teams. They start with Boise State and then add two more. Geography and academic stature and budget says under performing athletically Colorado State should be one of the other two. The idea would be to have three MWC schools in a division with SMU, Houston, Tulsa and Wichita State for Olympics. Note, San Diego State is actually not as bad a travel as Boise State, as flights are direct to more cities and it's actually an hour flight time closer as a result.

So I'd target Boise State, get them on board, and follow up with Colorado State and San Diego State, all as full members.

Based off what I've seen from SDSU's AD they aren't very interested after being left at the alter thanks to Boise last time.

They seemed to be very excited about the AAC/Big West Model that was planned

I think the Big West part is DOA. If San Diego State or Colorado State is to be brought on board (or Air Force or UNLV) the American has to take them in All Sports. The SDSU AD made it clear that they have no intention these days (unlike the 2011 plan) to park their Olympics in some one bid bus league.

The reality is the MWC and WCC are the only acceptable conferences in the West for schools at the level of the MWC Basketball. Joining the AAC means they get booted from the MWC and the WCC is not going to take a renter school that is neither private nor faith based. The Texas schools, Tulsa and Wichita State have to be OK flying West for Olympic sports.
Yep the Big West seems stable and content. I don't see any interest on either side at this point

Boise is not in a great position to try and recruit friends after they left SDSU at the alter.

I think the AAC would need to add four Western all sports schools that could share a division with the TX schools, Tulsa, and Wichita/Navy in order to make this work and operationally feasible

This is correct. SDSU will only be involved if it's for all sports including division based olys to limit travel. BSU/SDSU/BYU(more likely CSU) and one non-football school could make it possible. The issue I see is Gonzaga is the only non-football school the AAC would consider and even if BYU jumped I really wonder if Gonzaga would be interested at all. Seems like it probably won't happen.
05-07-2021 05:15 PM
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Post: #98
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 11:15 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 07:39 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 02:07 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 11:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-06-2021 08:36 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Not this again.

If it was going to happen it would have already.

Nothing to see here.

That kind of logic is always true right up until the day it is not.
LOL. I grant your point. Frankly I was being a little lazy. It would be more accurate to say if this was going to happen with the AAC and MWC still positioned in the FBS conference hierarchy as they have been for the past couple of years it would have already.

If and when something happens to substantially change that relative positioning — e.g. alterations to media contract terms, CFP distributions and/or New Year’s Six bowl access that result in the AAC drawing closer in status to the P5 and becoming further distanced from the MWC — I could see one or more MWC schools moving to the AAC.
But as yet there’s been no significant reshaping of the landscape that would change the realignment calculus for Boise State, SDSU or any other MWC member.

Something like an automatic playoff spot for the conference that owns the G5 bid?


"Several commissioners, even one from the Group of Five, believe that each Power 5 champion and the highest ranked team from the Group of Five should receive an automatic berth. An automatic spot for a G5 team is viewed as an essential compromise, as five of the 11 members represent G5 leagues."


"In fact, the playoff working group, made up of four members of the CFP Management Committee (the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick), has been exploring a new model for two years. The group, including commissioners Greg Sankey (SEC), Bob Bowlsby (Big 12) and Craig Thompson (Mountain West), as well as Swarbrick, was formed in January 2019 but paused to handle matters related to COVID-19 this past calendar year."

"More and more people–not just fans, but the 10 commissioners and Notre Dame–who have a vote in the matter are saying, 'it's time to look at expansion,'" Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson told ESPN. "I think we could accommodate expansion before the 12-year contract expires."

Yeah, but BYU was knocking on the door without a P5 victory. Coastal was knocking on the door with a Sun Belt schedule. Adding teams to the American doesn’t help if the champ loses a game and a MWC champ is undefeated.

This is the biggest selling point, IMO. AAC teams control their own destinies. Outside of Boise, schools have to run the table (or have the best G5 record) and wait for AAC/Boise to stumble in order to achieve the “prize.” If the “prize” becomes a playoff spot instead of a bowl, game on.
05-07-2021 05:53 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
(05-07-2021 04:44 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(05-07-2021 04:24 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  It has to be the right 14 teams. They start with Boise State and then add two more. Geography and academic stature and budget says under performing athletically Colorado State should be one of the other two. The idea would be to have three MWC schools in a division with SMU, Houston, Tulsa and Wichita State for Olympics. Note, San Diego State is actually not as bad a travel as Boise State, as flights are direct to more cities and it's actually an hour flight time closer as a result.

So I'd target Boise State, get them on board, and follow up with Colorado State and San Diego State, all as full members.

Based off what I've seen from SDSU's AD they aren't very interested after being left at the alter thanks to Boise last time.

They seemed to be very excited about the AAC/Big West Model that was planned

I think the Big West part is DOA. If San Diego State or Colorado State is to be brought on board (or Air Force or UNLV) the American has to take them in All Sports. The SDSU AD made it clear that they have no intention these days (unlike the 2011 plan) to park their Olympics in some one bid bus league.

The reality is the MWC and WCC are the only acceptable conferences in the West for schools at the level of the MWC Basketball. Joining the AAC means they get booted from the MWC and the WCC is not going to take a renter school that is neither private nor faith based. The Texas schools, Tulsa and Wichita State have to be OK flying West for Olympic sports.
Yep the Big West seems stable and content. I don't see any interest on either side at this point

Boise is not in a great position to try and recruit friends after they left SDSU at the alter.

I think the AAC would need to add four Western all sports schools that could share a division with the TX schools, Tulsa, and Wichita/Navy in order to make this work and operationally feasible

Here's an interesting angle to consider.

Im not so sure the 4 current AAC members in the West would be on board with a 3 to 5 team all sports addition from the MW. You see, the only way to have a conference this spread out would be to move to the extensive use of divisional play in non-revenue sports (perhaps even mens basketball as well). That means the cost of greatly increased olympic sports travel burden would largely fall JUST on those 4 western AAC teams--and the rest of the league would only be mildly affected (in fact, the rest of the leagues travel costs would likley fall). Unless there is some sort of revenue device to offset those considerable new costs for the existing western members---Im not sure the western 4 AAC schools would buy into the idea of 4 western "all sports" additions. Four "football only" additions would be no problem as it's just a couple of trips a year, but I dont know about 4 "all sports" additions from the MW. That might be a tough sell without some financial recognition of the substantially increased travel burden that would largely fall on just 4 programs while everyone else reaps the benefits of lower travel costs.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2021 06:16 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-07-2021 06:08 PM
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Post: #100
RE: Sorry but another Internet rumor of MWC getting poached by AAC
We'll find out about the playoff structure soon enough.

Once that is known then Boise can decide about AAC or no.
05-07-2021 06:19 PM
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